Reply #5: yes, there is a momentum thing with the winning of earlier primaries [View All]

[ccpup]

but there's also a lot of time left over for the candidate to "stumble" and lose their "momentum" (a favorite storyline -- a Campaign Imploding or in Disarray -- of the media).

And it's a very hard road to lose the first contests and then work like hell to win the later contests, but it can be done (giving the media their other favorite storyline, the "comeback").

At the end of the day, what counts is the number of delegates one has in the bag at Convention Time. Whether they come from early States or later States, I don't think the candidate cares. You just gotta hit that majority number and you're good to go.

The end is nowhere in sight and we have until at least late-Spring before we know who's gonna be what.