Reply #24: I would love to see this, but I believe it is doubtful [View All]

[last_texas_dem]

It is not due to a lack of turnout on the part of black voters that Republicans do so well in the south. Blacks vote at a comparable level to whites in southern states. The problem is, as another poster pointed out above, whites vote almost as monolithically Republican as blacks vote monolithically Democratic in the southern states.

Southern states do tend to have worse turnout that most other states, and you are likely right in your assumption that having Obama as the Democratic Presidential candidate would increase black turnout. However, I believe it is also unfortunately true that there would be a similar increase in turnout by white bigots and other right-wing types. Blacks already vote Democratic at very high rates in most southern states; while having Obama on the ticket could increase turnout among blacks, there isn't much room for improvement in terms of the rate at which southern blacks already vote Democratic. However, even with southern whites already voting Republican at pretty disgusting percentages, there is still room for bigoted Democrats and independents who tend to vote Democratic to swing Republican in opposition to a black presidential candidate.

I do not believe, as some do, that Obama would do substantially worse in the south than Clinton or Edwards would. I just believe that the number of voters his candidacy would excite and bring out to vote, would be balanced out by a comparable number of those driven to turn out to oppose him.