Important: Please read re: Super Tuesday [View All]

[The Delegates]

I'm really getting sick and tired of stupid comments like, "He can win AL, AK and OK, but they won't add up to one NY."

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

Do you understand?

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

Let me say it again

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

Say it with me

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

What does this mean?

This means that the importance of this late Obama momentum isn't whether he wins all of these states he's making surges in, but how close he comes.

Ignoring Superdelegates, the current count is Obama 63-Hillary 48.

Let's say Obama wins Illinois 55-24

Let's say Hillary wins California 45-41.

Assuming the congressional districts represent the overall count (since delegates are awarded by district)...

Obama would get 236 delegates from those 2 states

Clinton would get 204 delegates from those 2 states.

I think at large delegates will get divided between the 2 leaders if no one else breaks 15% (correct me if I'm wrong). So let's adjust those polls to reflect 100%.

Obama wins Illinois 66-34.
Clinton wins California 52-48.

Obama gets 279 delegates from those 2 states
Clinton gets 230

Winning a smaller state by a big margin is more important than winning a large state by a tight margin.

Clinton will win New York. But guess what? What matters is how much she wins New York by. If it is 10% or less, that's a huge Obama victory.

New York has 232 delegates. Let's say hypothetically Clinton wins 55-45.

Clinton gets 128 delegates
Obama gets 104 delegates

Adding to the Illinois and Calfornia totals

Obama 383
Clinton 358

So, what matters is NOT how many states Clinton wins. Everyone knows she'll "win" the majority of states. What matters is how close Obama closes the gap and how overwhelming his victories are in the state he wins.

Despite the fact Clinton "won" 2 states in my hypothetical to Obama's 1, Obama still leads.

If Obama keeps it close and is within 100 delegates of Hillary, I fully expect endorsements to flow and Superdelegates to defect to Obama. Right now a lot of people are supporting Hillary because they feel she is the safe bet. They don't think Obama is for real. If he can come so close to the Clinton machine, the momentum is going to be huge for him. I won't say Gore or Edwards will endorse, but if Obama is close, I think it is a strong possibility.

If Obama somehow comes out of Super Tuesday tied or ahead, or down by the less than 50, the Clinton campaign is in serious trouble.

I'm thinking Clinton and Obama will both receive between 800-900 delegates on ST.

Every time you see a comment like the one I mentioned early on, please kick this thread