Reply #54: I think it's doubtful in those particular states [View All]

[last_texas_dem]

MS and, I believe, SC are the states with the largest black populations, and yet are essentially solidly Republican. While their black populations may vote 90+% Democratic, their white populations are almost as solidly Repug on the Presidential level, at least. Consider that even with blacks voting around 95% for Kerry in MS, Bush won something like 85% of whites. With blacks making up 37% of the population in MS, even if they're voting more solidly Democratic than whites are voting solidly Repug, that's still not enough. I don't think turnout is really that big a part of it, either. Black turnout in most southern states is comparable to whites, I believe. It's just that there are more whites, and they vote almost as exclusively for one party as blacks do, just for a different party.

GA is an interesting case, as they don't seem to be quite as solidly "Dixie" as AL and MS (in the latter two I believe a Dem victory is statistically impossible). Clinton did win in '92, but I believe much of that was due to the Perot factor. Also, GA has moved further to the right since that time, with "Democrat" Senator Zell Miller turning into a flaming right-winger and being replaced by a Repug upon retirement, Democratic Senator Max Cleland being defeated (even if cheating was involved) for re-election for being such an "unpatriotic" triple-amputee war veteran, and GA electing their first Repug governor since Reconstruction. Also, the Presidential elections in GA this decade weren't even close.

What it comes down to is this: Even if Obama (or even Clinton, for that matter) being on the ticket were to increase interest among blacks in voting for the Democratic ticket, in states where race is such a prime factor in what party the citizens choose to align themselves with, it is likely that there will be a similar increase in whites voting Repug to combat blacks voting Dem. I'm from East Texas, so I think I know a number of these people well enough to assess that there are plenty of them out there, and that's why I'm not optimistic that Obama (or Clinton's) appeal to black voters will be able to put the south into play, beyond a couple of less traditionally southern states. (And those being in play will have more to do with "swing" voters of all races than traditionally Democratic-voting blacks.) I do think it's possible that either Obama or Clinton could win a national election, but it's going to be a close one either way IMHO and I don't think the south is going to be of much help.