Why Obama may win Ohio and thus the nomination [View All]

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Why Obama may win with a victory in Ohio

Clinton's own supporters have suggested that she "has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she's out" (NYT, February 12, 2008 citing "one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton"). Others including Democratic strategist and Clinton backer James Carville "Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done" (Orlando Sentinel, Feb 13, 2008). Additionally, given that she is current down by a small but significant margin in pledge delegates the math gets very difficult if she does not carry these two "firewall" states. Ohio has a large number of delegates (161).

Why Obama may win Ohio

Let’s assume that Clinton will maintain the advantage she had prior to the Potomac primaries with some demographic groups. For this analysis let’s give her a lead among Latinos, 65yo+, and less educated democratic voters. Let’s also assume that Obama retains his advantage with African Americans and higher educated democratic voters.

Latinos

According to the Census Bureau the Latino population in Ohio is very small. The 2006 census indicates that Latinos comprise 2.3% of the population of Ohio, which is more than 6 times less the national average of 14.8%. Even if Clinton can reverse and pre-date Obama's capturing of the Latino vote (in VA for example, CNN exit polling, Obama 54% - Clinton 46%) it wouldn't amount to much difference given the small numbers of Latinos in Ohio.

African Americans

The percentage of Blacks in Ohio mirrors the national average (Ohio 12.0%, national average 12.8%). Blacks have been the most stridently Democratic voters among any demographic category I have seen and thus are presumably more likely than Latinos to be democratic primary voters. In the three most populous cities in Ohio the percentage of African Americans are as follows: Cleveland 51.0% of the population, 42.9% in Cincinnati, and 24.5% in Columbus. Watch Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton counties on election night.

The elderly

The percentage of persons over 65 years old and over in Ohio is 13.3%, only slightly more populous than the national average of 12.4%. Yet, older voters tend to vote in greater percentages than younger voters. However, using VA primary CNN exit poll data, the elderly are trending to Obama as he carried them in VA 56% - 44%. In addition, those 60 and Older accounted for only 20% in the 2004 presidential election, and age groups 30-44yo accounted for more at 30% and 45-59yo accounted for 29%. The meat of the vote in Ohio has been with middle age voters. Indeed, 80% of the 2004 vote came from age groups 18-59.

Educated voters

Ohioans are only slightly less educated than the nation at large. Those with a Bachelor's degree or higher amounted to 21.1% of the population and are 24.4% of the national population. However, using recent VA primary contest exit poll data, poorer and more educated folks are trending to Obama:



Source: CNN

Momentum

Ohio is trending to Obama following Obama's sweep of the most recent 7 state elections. Indeed, the second most recent Quinnipiac poll indicated a 26 point Clinton lead and the most recent a 21 point Clinton lead. The most recent of all polls in Ohio shows that lead has been cut to 14 points. Clearly there is movement to Obama in the State of Ohio.

Conclusion

Given the near absence of Latino voters in Ohio, the significant percentage of urban African American voters, and current trends toward Obama generally and among lower class and older voters, I predict that Ohio will either be very close or will go to Obama. If Carville, Clinton superdelegates, and others are correct this could spell the mathematical end to the Clinton campaign.

References

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us/politics/12clinton.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/the_buzz/2008/02/carville-and-ma.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#VADEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1125
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1142
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

Disclosure

I strongly support Obama for President of the United States!



http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77