Senator Clinton can NOT win the democratic nomination mathematically [View All]

[Tropics_Dude83]

I just did some number crunching for fun. According to Wikipedia, she has 984 pledged delegates right now. 2,025 are needed to win and 2,208 or so are needed counting Florida and Michigan. I had no idea she had so few pledged delegates. There are just 1,074 pledged delegates left to be won in the primaries still to come. She would need to win 1,035 to 1,040 out of 1,074 pledged delegates remaining to get to the 2,025 number. And she certainly can't seat Florida and Michigan and say "see I got to 2,025 that way" because the majority would then be 2,208.

Senator Obama has like 1121 pledged delegates.

Right now she has 233 pledged super delegates with only 333 super delegates who have not declared who they intend to vote for. So, it gets very difficult to see how she can win even in that circumstance. Best case scenario for her she gets up to like 1,900 with super delegates added.

The math just doesn't add up. Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania don't really matter or change the mathematics much at all. However, Penn is being clever. The media has bought into Ohio and Texas being critical swing states. So, Hillary's only hope is that she has substantial victories in Ohio, Texas and PA. This would then allow her to build momentum and maybe win states that she's not supposed to like Pennsylvania. However, if Ohio and Texas are resistant to the Obama wave right now, why would North Carolina not be resistant to a HRC wave coming off of her PA win?

Furthermore, this "22 states don't matter" Penn meme makes sense now. It is ALL about the Clinton camp's pitch to the superdelegates wherein she states that since she won all of the big states that she should be the nominee.

So, in short, she doesn't have a prayer of winning based on pledged delegates. Her OH, TX and PA strategy doesn't really net her much either in that sense. She's using her big state wins to try to sway the super delegates to sway her. As I said though, even if she wins 61% of the remaining 333 superdelegates, the math still seems awfully tough for her.

Senator Obama is more likely than not going to be our nominee. Even TX, OH and PA can't save her.