Reply #16: Let's look at things a bit objectively [View All]

[lapfog_1]

Reasons * will win in November.

1. majority of Americans believe that the war in Iraq is the same
as the war on terror, that Iraq was the source (or assisted) 9/11.
Must stay the course.

2. Many Nascar dads (and other red state / red meat) Americans believe
that * is a stronger war president than Kerry (never mind their
own service records)

3. There is an unholy alliance of corporate war profiteers, corporate
greed mongers, Evangelical Christians, and conservative Jews
(the Neocon movement is a Jewish - actually American Likud -
movement)

4. * has a receptive media with few outlets of opposing views,
especially cable and radio. Liberals have some pull on the network
news and on the internet. However, most liberal news outlets try
to be both fair and accurate, the conservative outlets don't care
about any of that.

5. * has raised more money than anyone thought possible, and has
already spent more money than the was spent by the * campaign
in the entire 2000 election. * was unopposed in the primaries.

6. Nader MAY provide an outlet for those who are of the extreme
left, or Kerry may cause them to sit it out. Their view is that
the pendulum of American politics will not swing back to the left
while conservatives run hard-right candidates and the left runs
middle to slight left candidates. In other words, we won't elect
a progressive until we've had a complete bellyfull of
conservatives (I've been to a few meetings where this was the
common accepted worldview).

Reasons why Kerry will win

1. There may yet be time to convince American people that Iraq was
an "elective" war, and had nothing to do with 9/11 or any other
reasons.

2. Deficits do bother people in the abstract, especially if they
cause a rise in interest rates which directly affects pocketbooks.

3. * has united middle and left liberal and some fiscal conservatives
more than anytime in recent memory (even more than Raygun).

4. It's still the economy, stupid. Despite all of the "wonderful"
economic recovery news, most people have seen a real eroding of
their buying power and feel less, not more, comfortable about
keeping their jobs.

5. Some more apolitical folks are waking up to the loss of their
freedoms... especially their freedom to sin (gamble, porn, etc).
"You can pry my DVD of Girls Gone Wild from my cold, dead hands"
may well be a 2004 battle cry.

6. Americans LIKE a split and hobbled Federal government (where each
of the two elective branches are controlled by opposites). This
has been the recent historical model, and people like it. They
are afraid of single party control.


I think it's too close to call... and, unfortunately, ties go to *
(either through BBV or the courts).

But I remain hopeful.