Reply #4: He may not even win MT and SD [View All]

[jackson_dem]

The reason they are expected to go for him in a landslide is the same reason OR was: caucuses in neighboring states. OR, SD, and MT will all have primaries that allow equal access to voting and do not disenfranchise working folks, seniors, immigrants, and others. He won the Washington caucus (10% turnout) 68-31. However, in the primary which had more than double the turnout his margin was only 51-46 and this was during the height of his popularity during the halcyon "11 straight" days. There is no polling for Montana but the lone SD poll had him ahead by 12 several weeks ago. For sure he begins with an advantage in OR, SD, and MT but they are not locks for him by any means like they would be if they were 1.9% turnout caucuses or like NC is.

Obama won't debate. He knows he sucks at them and knows what happens to his numbers after debates. A debate alone could swing that 6 point lead to a narrow deficit.

This is one poll but we only have had two OR polls and by the same firm. This shows movement to Clinton. He led by 10 before. She will have momentum heading into OR after winning IN, almost pulling off a miracle in NC, and blowing him out in WV the week before Oregon and Kentucky vote. She has a shot at sweeping the rest of the contests aside from NC.

One more not about OR, while it has a small black population it has a large "latte liberal" population and that is why, along with mistakenly conflating sham caucus results in nearby states, he was expected to win OR easily. If he can't win Oregon where can he win (since the vetting process began) a primary where the black share of the electorate is under 1/3?