The media will have to acknowledge the writing on the wall: Game over for Hillary [View All]

[ProSense]

Clinton's "Nuclear Option?"

05 May 2008 06:46 am

HuffPost political editor Tom Edsall writes that the Clinton campaign is preparing to "ram through" the party's rules and bylaws committee a proposal to seat the disputed Florida and Michigan delegations and thus close the delegate gap by about 55. Edsall writes that the decision to deploy this tactical "nuke" has not yet been made.

Not to the belabor the metaphor, but it's not clear to me that Clinton really has this weapon in her arsenal. The rules and bylaws committee may or may not be comprised of a majority of Clinton supporters (many of its members remain uncommitted), but they're not going to be asked to vote on any challenge that would award Clinton her entire delegate haul from Michigan and Florida. The two challenges they've been asked to consider would, at most, award Clinton an extra 30 delegates -- half of her margin from Florida and half from Michigan. One of the challenges, if successful, would allow 23 superdelegates from Florida to make known their preferences, and Clinton would net a few.

In any event, whatever the RBC decides, the party's credentials committee, which won't spring into existence until late June, has final say. And Obama will probably have a majority of members on that committee, enough to send a majority report to the convention with whatever recommendation arises from that deliberation. (Clinton's backers would send a minority report.)

*** The Math Game: Both candidates seemed very exhausted during their morning show appearances on TODAY and Morning Joe. And that probably isn’t surprising -- tomorrow is the last BIG primary day. Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.

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California superdelegates' wavering bodes ill for Hillary Clinton

Some who have supported her say they'll switch to Barack Obama if she doesn't make big gains in the remaining Democratic primaries.

By Scott Martelle, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
May 5, 2008

FRESNO -- Hillary Rodham Clinton, stung last week by the defection of a prominent superdelegate, could lose the backing of more of these Democratic Party leaders and elected officials if she fails to make significant gains in the remaining month of presidential nominating contests, several California superdelegates said this weekend.

Two of the five superdelegates aligned with Clinton who spoke at the annual California Democratic Convention here said they would reconsider their support if rival Barack Obama maintained his lead in elected delegates and the popular vote after the last contests on June 3.

While hardly reflecting a groundswell, the superdelegates' comments underscored the concerns among some of these officials about the drawn-out Democratic race. It follows the embarrassing defection Clinton's campaign suffered Thursday when former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew switched his support from her to Obama, and warned that the negative tone of the campaign was becoming a "catastrophe" that would help Republicans.

Christopher Stampolis of Santa Clara, a superdelegate who endorsed Clinton after the Iowa caucuses, said that he remained in the New York senator's camp but that his commitment expired with the end of the primaries.

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Good news for the GE:

May 05, 2008

Gaining with Hispanics in Florida

Amie Parnes and I note a coming milestone: The number of registered Hispanic Democrats in Florida is expected this week to surpass the number of Hispanic Republicans in the state.

It's a key data point in the argument over how hard the Democrat should play there in the fall.