How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else [View All]

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How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else
TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OperationChaos.htm

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos  ()  had no effect on the Indiana primary.  Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53–47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the (51–49) split in the total vote. This analysis will show that were it not for Operation Chaos, Obama would have definitely won Indiana and very possibly Texas.  Well, at least one blogger gets it.

The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters:

1. The first group consists of moderates who are strongly for Obama.
2. The second group includes 40–50% who were driven by Operation Chaos.

Final Exit poll data shows that since Operation Chaos began on March 4 in OH and TX, the percentage of Republican crossover voters () has risen from 6% to 9%.  The increase has been almost totally to Clinton's benefit.

Prior to March 4 (before Operation Chaos), seven primaries allowed Republicans to participate. Obama won their vote by an average of 59–28%.  He won all 7 primaries by an average 58–37% share.

Since Operation Chaos began on March 4, five primaries have been open to Republicans. Clinton won their vote by an average 57–41%.  Obama won 2 of the 5 primaries (but should have won 4). He had an average 51–47% share in the 5 primaries.


Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote:   Pre  vs.  Post March 4   (Operation Chaos)

Final Exit Polls
 PRE  MARCH 4 
               PartyID      Total Share         Share of Repub         Difference   
                Repub        HRC    OB            HRC    OB            HRC     OB
       AL         5%         42%    56%           52%    45%            10%  -11%
       SC         4%         27%    53%           20%    37%           - 7%  -16%
       IL         6%         34%    65%           36%    60%             2%  - 5%
       MO         6%         44%    54%           21%    75%           -23%   21%
       LA         5%         37%    56%           17%    53%           -20%  - 3%
       VA         7%         35%    64%           23%    72%           -12%    8%
       WI         9%         40%    57%           28%    72%           -12%   15%
         	       
           Avg    6%         37%    58%           28%    59%            -9%   +1%
                                                                         
 POST MARCH 4    
               PartyID      Total Share         Share of Repub         Difference   
                Repub        HRC    OB            HRC    OB            HRC     OB
03/04  OH         9%         54%    44%           49%    49%           - 5%    5%
03/04  TX         9%         51%    47%           46%    53%           - 5%    6%
03/11  MS        12%         38%    60%           75%    25%            37%  -35%
05/06  IN        10%         50.1%  49.9%         53%    47%             3%  - 3%
05/06  NC         5%         42%    56%           61%    32%            19%  -24%
          	       
           Avg    9%         47%    51%           57%    41%           +10%  -10%
        	       
__________________________________________________________
 
PARTY ID
Pre March 4
 
AL            HRC    OB     JE                               
Dem    82%    40%    58%    1%                               
Rep     5%    52%    45%    3%                               
Ind    13%    48%    48%    3%                               
Total         41.6%  56.1%  1.4%                             
 
 
SC
Dem    73%    28%    57%    14%                              
Rep     4%    20%    37%    43%                              
Ind    23%    26%    42%    32%                              
Total         27.2%  52.8%  19.3%                            
 
 
IL
Dem    79%    36%    63%    1%                               
Rep     6%    36%    60%    4%                               
Ind    16%    22%    72%    4%                               
Total         34.1%  64.9%  1.7%                             
 
 
MO
Dem    73%    50%    47%    2%                               
Rep     6%    21%    75%    4%                               
Ind    22%    30%    67%    2%                               
Total         44.4%  53.6%  2.1%                             
 
 
LA            HRC    OB                                      
Dem    83%    38%    57%                                     
Rep     5%    17%    53%                                     
Ind    12%    36%    53%                                     
Total         36.7%  56.3%                                   
 
 
VA
Dem    70%    38%    62%                                     
Rep     7%    23%    72%                                     
Ind    22%    30%    69%                                     
Total         34.8%  63.6%                                   
 
 
WI
Dem    62%    46%    53%                                     
Rep     9%    28%    72%                                     
Ind    28%    33%    64%                                     
Total         40.3%  57.3%                                   
 
__________________________________________________________
 
Party ID
Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)                                                          
 
OH            HRC    OB                                      
Dem    69%    56%    42%                                     
Rep     9%    49%    49%                                     
Ind    22%    48%    50%                                     
Total         53.6%  44.4%                                   
 
 
TX
Dem    66%    53%    46%                                     
Rep     9%    46%    53%                                     
Ind    25%    48%    49%                                     
Total         51.1%  47.4%                                   
 
 
MS
Dem    71%    30%    67%                                     
Rep    12%    75%    25%                                     
Ind    17%    43%    53%                                     
Total         37.6%  59.6%                                   
 
 
IN
Dem    67%    51%    49%                                     
Rep    10%    53%    47%                                     
Ind    23%    46%    54%                                     
Total         50.1%  49.1%                                   
 
 
NC
Dem    76%    39%    60%                                     
Rep     5%    61%    32%                                     
Ind    19%    50%    45%                                     
Total         42.2%  55.8%