Reply #17: Politico Talks about this [View All]

[Austinitis]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10300.html


2) The Edwards protest vote. John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who ended his Democratic presidential campaign in January, remains on the ballot in West Virginia. And he polled at 4 percent in the Suffolk poll, popular primarily with men and independents.

If Edwards gets that much of the vote or more, it could add to the night’s woes for Obama and presage problems for him in a general election matchup with McCain, particularly in rural states such as West Virginia.

Both men have courted independent voters, whom Obama needs to offset votes he’s likely to lose from southern white Democrats reluctant to support a black candidate.

“There are people who for some reason won’t vote for Obama,” said David Paleologos, who directed the Suffolk poll. Edwards’ poll showing, combined with Obama’s relatively low favorability numbers (44 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable, compared with Clinton’s 70 percent favorable and 21 percent unfavorable ratings) suggest to Paleologos that “Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November.”

The poll also found 40 percent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee if their preferred candidate lost, while 23 percent said they would cross the ballot to vote for McCain.