Reply #6: I think its VERY possible!!...I'm cautiously optimistic myself [View All]

[Douglas Carpenter]

There are a number of reasons.

Among them:

1. Analyst predict that oil could very well reach $200 per barrel

over the next six months. link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armYFIWZS8V0&refer=home

There are many, many factors effecting the massive rise in oil price. Although it would not be a stretch to assign some of the responsibility to the policies of the Bush Administration.

But regardless whose fault this is, the consequences will reverberate throughout the entire world economy and the incumbent President of the United States and his Party will be held responsible in the eyes of many, many Americans.

There is no doubt that many, many Americans will associate John McCain with the problem.

This has the potential to create for John McCain and the Republicans a political disaster this coming November.

2. And all of this aside, Rasmussen which has many times be criticized for having a Republican bias reports trending very favorable to the Democrats and very unfavorable to the Republicans. - link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.5% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago. " see also this Rasmussen report on Party identity trending: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

3. And on top of everything else, along with a very low interest level as reflecting in very low primary participation, the Republicans are having a lot of trouble raising money for the Presidential campaigns:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php

4. President Bush Job Approval. Bush Job Approval Falls to Another All-Time Low: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/president_bush_job_approval
"Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove of the President’s Performance, up two points from a week ago." "Also in April, as the President’s Approval Rating slipped, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats remained near the highest levels ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports."

5. Democrats Trusted More on All Ten Electoral Issues Tracked by Rasmussen Reports: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues

"American voters now trust the Democrats on all ten key electoral issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Last month, the GOP’s had an advantage on two issues.

Not surprisingly, the economy is still seen as the most important issue in this year’s presidential campaign--76% of voters say it is a Very Important issue. The Democrats now have a 14-point advantage over the Republicans on this issue, up from eight-points a month ago. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer confidence is currently hovering near record lows. Not only is confidence low, three-out-of-four Americans believe that economic conditions are getting worse.

Government Ethics and Corruption is a Very Important issue for 71% of Likely Voters. The Democrats have a huge advantage on this issue—45% now trust them while just 26% prefer the GOP. That lead has also widened since last month, when the Democrats had only a six-point advantage.

Perhaps the biggest surprise comes from the fact that Democrats are now trusted more when it comes to National Security and the War on Terror, an issue long considered a GOP stronghold. The latest polling, however, shows that 49% of voters now trust the Democrats more on this issue while 42% trust the Republicans more. This shift comes at the same time that confidence in the War on Terror has fallen significantly."