Reply #16: Latest Pre-election State Polling Averages - Obama leads McCain in EV in 19 key states, 214 - 63 [View All]

[tiptoe]

2008 Pre-election Polling
May 23

These are the latest RCP pre-election state polling averages.
Obama leads McCain in the electoral vote in 19 key states by 214-63.

On an EV-weighted average basis, he leads by 46.5-42.8%
Converting to a 2-party equivalent, he leads by 52.1-47.9%

Obama's lead is beyond the 4% margin of error in 5 of the 19 states: MN, NJ, OR, WA, CA
States most likely to be targeted for flipping by the GOP: OH, FL, MI, WI, IA, PA, NH, NM, VA, NC, CO, MO
The more things change...sound familiar?

It’s obviously very early to place too much faith in the polls. But the fact that Obama has not yet officially clinched the nomination and yet has a solid lead in the critical battleground states portends a landslide victory. Obama’s lead will surely grow once the focus turns to the general election.

                             Avg Poll                 EV                     Exceed
             EV          McCain    Obama       McCain    Obama     Margin     MoE?
Avg         277          43.3       45.8        63        214       -2.5       6
 
OH           20          42.7       44.0         0         20       -1.3         
PA           21          40.5       46.3         0         21       -5.8         
FL           27          44.7       46.3         0         27       -1.6         
WI           10          41.7       47.3         0         10       -5.6         
IA            7          41.7       47.3         0          7       -5.6         
 
MN           10          39.7       50.7         0         10      -11.0      yes
MO           11          48.0       45.0        11          0        3.0          
NM            5          44.0       44.0         0          5        0.0          
NV            5          46.0       40.0         5          0        6.0          
CO            9          42.0       48.0         0          9       -6.0         
 
MI           17          43.7       44.3         0         17       -0.6         
NH            4          44.7       43.3         4          0        1.4          
NJ           15          40.0       49.3         0         15       -9.3      yes
VA           13          44.3       43.0        13          0        1.3          
NC           15          48.0       42.3        15          0        5.7          
 
GA           15          53.7       40.0        15          0       13.7      yes
OR            7          39.3       49.7         0          7      -10.4      yes
WA           11          39.7       49.7         0         11      -10.0      yes
CA           55          39.0       50.5         0         55      -11.5      yes