Obama's Coattails May Drive Record Black Turnout in House Races [View All]

[marmar]

from Bloomberg:



Obama's Coattails May Drive Record Black Turnout in House Races

By Laura Litvan

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- In 2006, Ohio Republican Representative Steve Chabot barely survived the electoral drag of the Iraq War, congressional scandals and an unpopular president. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy this year may deliver a knockout blow.

More than a quarter of the voters in Chabot's Cincinnati district are black, the highest concentration for any incumbent House Republican in a competitive race this fall. Obama's likely spot at the top of the Democratic ticket may fuel a surge in turnout among black voters that could help the party pick up a half-dozen new House seats.

There has already been record turnout of black voters in this year's primary contests. The Obama campaign and political experts expect that trend to continue in the fall, imperiling incumbents in Republican-held House districts that have a double- digit black vote.

``You'll see a record proportion of the vote in each district that is African-American,'' said Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

Chabot's district gave President George W. Bush only a little more than 50 percent of its vote in 2004. Still, Chabot said he is confident he will win re-election against Democrat Steve Driehaus.

`Battle-Tested'

``We're battle-tested and we've been through this many times before,'' Chabot, 55, said in an interview. ``Nobody's going to sneak up on us.''

Chabot, who is serving his seventh term, said he expects record voter turnout for both parties, and any boost Obama or presumptive Republican nominee John McCain may give to other candidates will balance out.

Democratic candidates have already benefited from Illinois Senator Obama's coattails in recent special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana, where the party picked up two House seats, said David Bositis, an expert on black voting trends at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington.

The Louisiana seat, won in April by Democrat Dan Cazayoux, is in a district where one-third of voters are black. This month, in Louisiana, Democrat Travis Childers won a district where almost a third of voters are black.

That trend will accelerate this fall, Bositis said. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adkPhlSZYS0Q&refer=home