The Daily Widget – Thursday, June 12 – WEA 53.72% 599.30 Obama 313-225 [View All]

[phrigndumass]

We're finally seeing a veritable pantload of activity in both the polls and online trading. Five new polls released since yesterday confirm what we already suspected. Obama is experiencing a huge bounce after the close of the primary season.

New polls released since yesterday:
Alabama - McCain 57, Obama 33 (AEA/Capital Survey 6/2)
Massachusetts - Obama 53, McCain 30 (Suffolk University 6/10)
Michigan - Obama 45, McCain 42 (Rasmussen 6/9)
New York - Obama 50, McCain 36 (Quinnipiac University 6/8)
Wisconsin - Obama 50, McCain 37 (University of Wisconsin 6/10)

Swing state gains on Intrade:
Wisconsin - 78.00 (+3.50)
Missouri - 42.50 (+2.50)
Indiana - 23.00 (+2.00)
New Mexico - 63.50 (+1.50)

Swing state losses on Intrade:
Ohio - 60.80 (-3.10)
Iowa - 78.00 (-2.00)
South Carolina - 8.50 (-1.50)
Colorado - 66.50 (-1.00)
Michigan - 69.00 (-1.00)
North Carolina - 22.50 (-0.50)


Yesterday’s Widget
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Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ Everyone move forward (not you, McCain) ... EV.com is now showing Obama leading with 304 electoral votes. 538.com climbs over 275 electoral votes today for Obama. My own projection jumps another 5 electoral votes to 313 for Obama, due mainly to the new polls and an increasing strength of projection.



^ Our WEA Index stays put for another day, as the RCP Averages ticks up two-tenths.



^ We inch back toward the majority mark today with a 0.40 gain since yesterday. Missouri is moving further into the gray zone, up 2.50 to 42.50. Wisconsin has the biggest leap of the day, with a 3.50 jump to 78.00.



^ Not many changes today overall in trading. Lots of increases and decreases, but they seem to have cancelled each other out.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls





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