Reply #3: Which polls are you thinking of...? [View All]

[regnaD kciN]

Not meaning to be a doomsayer, but I notice that McCain has gained (slightly) in most of the trackers, and has cut Obama's lead in PA to +7 and in VA to +4. Nate Silver has just raised McCain's win percentage from 3.8% to 6.3%.

Now, from where I sit, this merely looks like a slightly tighter Obama victory than before, but I would assume those state results, in particular, would probably be generating "we're coming back!" sentiments at the McCain campaign (losing campaigns, in my experience, always inflate the importance of last-minute polls that show them gaining). So, rather than seeing today's polls as good for Obama, I'd see them as somewhat positive for McCain -- although not nearly positive enough to give him a decent chance of winning, when looked at objectively.