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Nate Silver is uncharacteristically a downer today, BUT you'd do well to heed THIS paragraph... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 03:04 PM
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Nate Silver is uncharacteristically a downer today, BUT you'd do well to heed THIS paragraph...
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"I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable."

Of course, only in our little world would McCain having a 6% chance of winning be a downer. But it is, even if some new, positive PPP polls are on the way. :(

On the other hand, RealClearPolitics has Obama ahead by 6.3% points which is pretty awesome. And electoral-college.com is pretty confident about an Obama landslide, with 364 EVs projected.
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