Reply #12: false... please read before responding (or ignore altogether ;) ) [View All]

[salin]

one of the most disgusting tactics of the Rove machine in the past 8 years has to use the issue of demonizing and stripping gay americans of their rights as a "gimmick" to drive up religious right voters to the polls on even years. Why even years - these are the congressional and presidential election years. Other elections weren't key toward building Rove's desired "one-party rule" for at least a generation.

Cynically it worked early in this decade. But the trend was interupted in Arizona in 2006 when it was rejected. And while the dang thing passed in 2008 in California, it did NOT achieve the desired objective per Rove - it did not bring an electoral win to the republican candidate - not by a long shot.

Meanwhile the oonstant onslaught of attention these races have brought to the issue have led to a rather significant shift in the electorate's overall opinions. Think about this - it wasn't more (or much more) than six years ago that Governor Howard Dean was positioned to enforce a judicial ruling (IIRC) to allow civil unions for gay couples, that lead to his needing more extreme protection due to death threats. National sentiments were decidely against civil unions, let alone gay marriage.

In general - changes in the general population perceptions of major civil rights issues - do not change quickly, but rather very slowly/incrementally.

And while I view the Prop 8 vote as a huge setback - and a personal tragedy for a multitude of couples in California - I also see a major shift in popular perceptions. This was a close vote - and it wasn't nearly as close the last round. Simultaneously, many americans (the majority) are now comfortable with civil unions as a compromise. While I personally do not equate the two (civil unions and marriage) nor am I satisfied with settling with civil unions for my gay brothers and sisters, I do recognize that a political shift from strongly against civil unions just 6 years ago, to a national majority edge (if I recall more recent polling on the issue - I could be wrong, but don't think that my memory is failing me) is significant. And it represents a MOVING sentiment rather than a hard-felt/stagnant sentiment.

Please do not hear me justifying the vote in California. I am deeply saddened by it.

However the way these initiatives have cynically been used to try to "get out the vote" of religious right voters to maintain the repub majority... is in the past. I honestly think the days of using the stripping of civil rights of gay americans in order to try to solidfy blocks of voters is almost up. First, as a political ploy it is no longer working - it hasn't equated into electoral wins in contested places over the past two election cycles. More importantly, it seems that public opinion per the issue is in flux (ever changing) in this era and I believe that these shifts will continue and that in the very near future the majority which has decided that it can accept civil unions, even if it can not (yet) accept marraige, will keep moving toward becoming accepting of marriage overall. Given that reality (if it is a reality) - the use of the issue as a political strategy to increase rightwing voter turnout - has failed over the past four years, suggests to me that it will NOT be the rovian fear-tactic de jour in 2010 and 2012.

YMMV