Reply #21: Some analysis from the BBC: Early polls suggest Labour lead [View All]

[Anarcho-Socialist]

Early polls suggest Labour lead

ANALYSIS
David Cowling
Editor, BBC Political Research

Sunday sees three polls published. ICM gives a Labour lead of 4% and YouGov suggests a Labour lead of 2%. Both of them suggested virtually no change from the start of the campaign last week.

However, Mori showed a Labour lead of 7%, compared with a Conservative lead of 5% which they registered in the previous week.

Mori's voting intention is drawn from only those respondents who say they are absolutely certain to vote. This significant shift may be the result of a stiffening of intention to vote among Labour's supporters.

Labour would like to think so but we should look for more supporting evidence before we risk suggesting that the election campaign has shifted decisively Labour's way.

More at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4429205.stm

Quite interesting, he seems to propose that those who are leaving Labour aren't going to Tories, but to other parties (probably the LibDems).