Reply #75: Another way of proving the NEP is bogus and Kerry won.... [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

According to the FINAL Exit poll, Bush won by 3.22 million
votes (51.11%-48.48%), based on how respondents voted in 2000.


The Final Exit Poll is MATCHED very close to the recorded
vote.			
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	37%	10%	90%	1%
Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.63%
 Votes	62.49	59.27	3.22

	
But we know this result is IMPOSSIBLE since the MAXIMUM Bush
vote,
assuming NOT A SINGLE BUSH 2000 VOTER HAS DIED, was 41.26% of
122.26, or 50.45 million.		
				
Let's determine what is both possible AND likely:

Assume the following: 
1) 3.5% of Election 2000 voters have since died (multiply the
national annual death rate of 8.7 per thousand by 4)
 and 
2) ALL those living voted in 2004.				

Then the absolute maximum percentage of returning voters was
40.2% for Gore and 39.8% for Bush.				

Using these percentages and keeping all the other FEP weights
constant, then Kerry won by over 3 million votes.				

VOTED IN 2000
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.0%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	40.2%	10%	90%	1%
Bush	39.8%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3.0%	21%	71%	3%
	100.0%	48.52%	51.07%	0.66%
	Tot. Votes	59.32	62.44	-3.12