National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

2004 Election Analysis Model					

TOTAL VOTER TURNOUT					
122.26 million voted in 2004				
104.78 million voted in 2000				
for a
17.48mm net increase in voters				
					
BUSH 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
50.456mm voted for Bush in 2000				
1.766	 died (3.5% approx.)				
0.487	 did not vote (1% approx)				
So the maximum number of Bush voters who could have voted in
2004 is:	
48.203mm (39.43% of 122.26mm)				
					
GORE 2000 VOTER TURNOUT					
50.999mm voted for Gore in 2000				
1.785	 died (3.5% approx.)				
0.492	did not vote (1% approx.)				
So the maximum number of Gore voters who could have voted in
2004 is:
48.722mm (39.85% of 122.26mm)				
					
NADER 2000 VOTER TURNOUT					
3.322mm voted for Nader/other in 2000				
0.116	died (3.5% approx.)				
0.032	did not vote (1% approx.)				
So the maximum number of Nader/othervoters who could have
voted in 2004 is:
3.174mm (2.60% of 122.26mm)				
					
Therefore, the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE turnout in 2004 of those who
voted in 2000 is:		
Bush	48.203mm	39.43%			
Gore	48.722	      39.85%			
Other	 3.174	       2.60%			

TOTAL	100.099mm    81.87%			
					
So the MINIMUM number of NEW voters had to be:			
NEW	22.161mm     18.13%			
					

NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE:
Poll 1: Posted on CNN 11/02 @ 7:38pm (11027 respondents)
Poll 2: Posted on WP 11/03 @ 12:22am (13047 respondents)
Poll 3: Final posted on CNN 11/03 @ 2:05pm (13660 respondents)
		
KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS:
Poll	Kerry% Votes	Bush%	Votes	Kerry margin (mm)
1	59%	13.08	39%	8.64	4.43
2	57%	12.63	41%	9.09	3.55
3	54%	11.97	45%	9.97	1.99
					
					
CALCULATING THE VOTES:
Applying the FACTUAL historic weightings computed above to the
Exit Poll timeline, from the First (11027 respondents) to the
Second (13047) to the Final (13660), we get: 

Exit Poll 1:
Kerry winning margin: 7.67 million votes	
					
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
22.161	None	18.13%	39%	59%	2%
48.722	Gore	39.85%	8%	91%	1%
48.203	Bush	39.43%	90%	9%	1%
3.174	Other	2.60%	13%	71%	16%
					
122.26	Total	100.00%	46.08%	52.35%	1.57%
		122.26	56.34	64.00	1.92
					
Exit Poll 2:
Kerry winning margin: 6.78 million votes	
					
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
22.161	None	18.13%	41%	57%	2%
48.722	Gore	39.85%	8%	91%	1%
48.203	Bush	39.43%	90%	9%	1%
3.174	Other	2.60%	13%	71%	16%
					
122.26	Total	100.00%	46.44%	51.99%	1.57%
		122.26	56.78	63.56	1.92

A PROBABILITY CALCULATION
The margin of error for a 3168 randomly-selected sample is
+/- 1.78%. Assuming this MOE, the probability of Bush having
46.44% in the poll and ending up with 50.73% of the vote is:
1 in 984,473
				

Exit Poll 3:
Kerry's winning margin is 3.29 million votes.	
					
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
22.161	None	18.13%	45%	54%	1%
48.722	Gore	39.85%	10%	90%	0%
48.203	Bush	39.43%	91%	9%	0%
3.174	Other	2.60%	13%	71%	16%

122.26	Total	100.0%	48.36%	51.05%	0.60%
		122.26	59.12	62.41	0.73


THE 22 MILLION NEW VOTERS:
Bush needed 64.5% of the 22.161mm NEW voters to gain his 3.0
mm margin. That means Bush had to win 14.294 mm(64.5%) New
voters and Kerry only 7.867 mm (34.5%). 

The FINAL Exit Poll (13,660 respondents), which was matched to
the vote, gave Bush ONLY 45% of NEW voters. 

The first 11,027 respondents gave him 39%.
The first 13,047 respondents gave him 41%.
					
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
22.161	None	18.13%	64.5%	35.5%	0%
48.722	Gore	39.85%	8%	91%	1%
48.203	Bush	39.43%	90%	9%	1%
3.174	Other	2.60%	13%	71%	16%
					
122.26	Total	100.00%	50.70%	48.09%	1.21%
		122.26	61.99	58.80	1.48

To believe Bush won 64.5% of NEW voters, then one must also
believe that 5 million (41%) of all NEW voters who said they
voted for Kerry must have LIED to the pollsters.