Reply #3: A gun at best ... definitely not smoking. Here's what I think is missing [View All]

[Iceburg]

Again, I repeat I am NOT an expert in probability theory... just a semi-sentient being. And as you well know I am firmly planted in the This-Election-Was-Stolen" camp. That said, here's what I think is missing in the probability estimate...

Firstly, (and perhaps most importantly) within any given county the pct numbers are not statistically independent. Thus, their associated attributes (precinct name/label, votes/registration etc) are not statistically independent. (Assignment of precinct numbers based on sorted lists discussed in an early post)

2ndly, the distribution of the ratio votes/regsitered may not be statistically normal (Dade,the county I looked at was not.)

3rdly, (non-randomness aside)I believe one would have to treat each county sequence separately since their respective distributions/ranges vary from county to county.
For example, a strong democratic county with 1000 precincts and total range from 40.0% to 95%, may have an IQR of only 15%, with its 25th and 75th percentile at 60% to 75% respectively. In this case 50% or 500 numbers lie in a very narrow band between 60.0 and 75.0 ( or 150 distinct possibilities). In this example, finding a match within the IQR will not have the same probability as finding a match outside the IQR.
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To the nathsayers of statistical analysis....
The laws of probabilty WILL play an important role in establishing that fraud did take place. Face it, America sentences people to die based on probability theory (DNA analysis) and the work of the WWII code breakers (agin all statisical analysis) was one of the most important factors in the defeat of Hitler.

Adolfo, don't get discouraged ... every analomaly we find needs to be vetted thoroughly. In the end, some will diamonds, others just simple lumps of coal. A lesson from Edison: Thomas Edison is reputed to have tried 10,000 experiments before he found a filament for the light bulb. When asked how it felt to have failed 10,000 times, he replied "I didn't fail," said the inventor. "I found 10,000 ways NOT to make a light bulb."