Reply #10: Bernie, this is NOT Party ID. This is the How Voted in 2000 demographic. [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

They are two completely different categories.

CNN Final Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov 3, 13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

NEP/WP Preliminary Exit Poll
12:22am Nov 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121

The extremely implausible 41% ratio of Bush 2000 voters to the 122.26 2004 voters (for the first 13047 respondents) was changed TO AN IMPOSSIBLE 43% of the Final 13660 in order to match the Bush vote. Bush only had 50.456 mm votes in 2000.

Likewise, Party ID weightings were ALSO changed from 38Dem/35Rep in the first 13047 to 37/37 in the Final 13660 to MATCH THE VOTE.

This just proves that The Final exit poll of 13660 respondents is bogus.

OTOH, the 13047 poll, which Kerry is a winner by 51-48, is very close to being correct. In fact, since the 41/39 mix is obviously incorrect as well (probabily should be 39 Bush/40 Kerry), that means Kerry's margin was even higher than 3%.