FL Vote analysis: Using registration, machine type, NEP Party ID stats. [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

This analysis indicates that Kerry won Florida. I applied
national exit poll vote percentages based on Party ID to
analyze Kerry's equivalent votes using  Florida registration
percentages as Party ID weights.

This is the breakdown of Florida Votes by Machine Type:
Touchscreen, ESS Optiscanners, Diebold Optiscanners

Reg = registered voters (millions)
Vote/Reg - Total Votes as % of Registered
DemA/E, RepA/E: Actual to Expected vote (based on
Registration)
 

MACHINE	Reg	%DEM	%REP	Vote	%DEM	%REP	Vote/Reg DemA/E RepA/E
Touchsc	5.576	40.89%	36.77%	3.864	51.30%	47.77%	69.3%	79.1%	128.6%
ESSOpti	1.442	41.90%	39.65%	1.050	39.36%	59.95%	72.8%	106.5%	151.3%
DiebOpt	3.283	41.93%	38.69%	2.370	43.56%	55.73%	72.2%	96.1%	143.4%
									
Total	10.301	41.37%	37.79%	7.284	47.06%	52.12%	70.7%	87.5%	136.9%
												
................................................................															
Left: National Exit Poll -
Party ID Weighting 	

Right: Florida Vote data
Voter Registration Weighting

Based on the registration weights: 

Kerry won Florida by 207,000 votes assuming Exit Poll 11027
percentages.							

He won by 223,000 votes assuming Exit Poll 13047
percentages.							
He lost by 29,000 votes assuming Final Exit Poll 13660
percentages.							
			
						Florida	7.284	Total							
7:38pm	11027					7:38pm									
PARTY ID	
   Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader			Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader					
Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%		Dem	41.37%	9%	90%	1%					
Rep	36%	92%	7%	1%		Rep	37.79%	92%	7%	1%					
Ind	26%	45%	52%	3%		Ind	20.84%	45%	52%	3%					
															
Total	100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.52%		Total	100%	47.87%	50.72%	1.42%					
	122.26	58.98	61.42	1.86			7.284	3.487	3.694	0.103					
							Kerry	0.207							
															
12:22am	13047					12:22am									
PARTY ID
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader			Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader					
Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%		Dem	41.37%	9%	90%	1%					
Rep	35%	92%	7%	1%		Rep	37.79%	92%	7%	1%					
Ind	27%	44%	52%	4%		Ind	20.84%	44%	52%	4%					
															
	100%	47.50%	50.69%	1.81%			100%	47.66%	50.72%	1.63%					
	122.26	58.07	61.97	2.21			7.284	3.471	3.694	0.118					
							Kerry	0.223							
															
2:05pm	13660														
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader			Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader					
Dem	37%	11%	89%	0%		Dem	41.37%	11%	89%	0%					
Rep	37%	93%	6%	1%		Rep	37.79%	93%	6%	1%					
Ind	26%	48%	49%	3%		Ind	20.84%	48%	49%	3%					
															
	100%	50.96%	47.89%	1.15%			100%	49.70%	49.30%	1.00%					
	122.26	62.30	58.55	1.41			7.284	3.620	3.591	0.073					
							Kerry	-0.029							
...............................................................		

This is a breakdown by Machine type, again using percentages
from the 11027, 13047 and 13660 exit poll versions.
													
7:38pm		Touchscreen	3.864			ESSOptiscan	1.050			DieboldOptiscan		2.370	
PARTY ID
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem	41.37%	9%	90%	1%		41.37%	9%	90%	1%		41.37%	9%	90%	1%	
Rep	37.79%	92%	7%	1%		37.79%	92%	7%	1%		37.79%	92%	7%	1%	
Ind	20.84%	45%	52%	3%		20.84%	45%	52%	3%		20.84%	45%	52%	3%	
															
	100%	47.87%	50.72%	1.42%		100%	47.87%	50.72%	1.42%		100%	47.87%	50.72%	1.42%	
	3.864	1.850	1.960	0.055		1.050	0.502	0.532	0.015		2.370	1.135	1.202	0.034	
	Kerry	0.110				Kerry	0.030				Kerry	0.067			



12:22am															
PARTY ID
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem	41.37%	9%	90%	1%		41.37%	9%	90%	1%		41.37%	9%	90%	1%	
Rep	37.79%	92%	7%	1%		37.79%	92%	7%	1%		37.79%	92%	7%	1%	
Ind	20.84%	44%	52%	4%		20.84%	44%	52%	4%		20.84%	44%	52%	4%	
															
	100%	47.66%	50.72%	1.63%		100%	47.66%	50.72%	1.63%		100%	47.66%	50.72%	1.63%	
	3.864	1.841	1.960	0.063		1.050	0.500	0.532	0.017		2.370	1.130	1.202	0.039	
	Kerry	0.118				Kerry	0.032				Kerry	0.072			

										
2:05pm			
PARTY ID
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem	41.37%	11%	89%	0%		41.37%	11%	89%	0%		41.37%	11%	89%	0%	
Rep	37.79%	93%	6%	1%		37.79%	93%	6%	1%		37.79%	93%	6%	1%	
Ind	20.84%	48%	49%	3%		20.84%	48%	49%	3%		20.84%	48%	49%	3%	
															
	100%	49.70%	49.30%	1.00%		100%	49.70%	49.30%	1.00%		100%	49.70%	49.30%	1.00%	
	3.864	1.920	1.905	0.039		1.050	0.522	0.517	0.011		2.370	1.178	1.169	0.024	
	Kerry	-0.015				Kerry	-0.004				Kerry	-0.009