What is the probability that...
Kerry would win 51.30%-47.77% in Florida counties(3.864 mm
votes) which used touch screen computers, but lose by
42.27%-57.03% in counties where Optical scanners (3.429mm
votes) were used?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Florida2000Vote_26173_image001.png
In other words, what is the probability that Kerry's
TouchScreen vote (51.30%) would exceed his total vote (47.06%)
by 4.24% due to chance alone?
Keep in mind that registration statistics are consistent
across Touchscreen and Optiscan counties, so we are NOT
comparing apples and oranges.
Total FL counties registration by voting machine:
TouchScreen:40.89% Dem vs. 36.77% Repub.
OptiScan: 41.92% Dem vs. 38.98% Repub.
Reg = registered voters (in millions)
DemR = registered Democrats (%)
RepR = registered Republicans (%)
DiffR = Demr - RepR
Votes = Total votes (millions)
DemV = Kerry votes
RepV = Bush votes
Reg DemR RepR DiffR Votes DemV RepV
Touchscreen
5.576 40.89% 36.77% 4.12% 3.864 51.30% 47.77%
Optiscan
4.725 41.92% 38.98% 2.94% 3.420 42.27% 57.03%
Total
10.301 41.37% 37.79% 3.58% 7.284 47.06% 52.12%
Assume a 1.0% Margin of error (extremely conservative):
Prob = NORMDIST(0.513,0.4706,0.01/1.96,FALSE)
Prob = 7.877E-14, less than 1 in 12.7 Trillion.