ANALYSIS OF THE GENDER VOTE
National vs. State Exit Polls
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm
NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Time Size KerryPct
4pm 8349 50.48
7:33pm 11027 50.78
12:22am 13047 50.78
1:25pm 13660 47.78
STATE EXIT POLLS
12:22am 72714
Kerry+Bush+Nader <100% (as originally posted, see below)
Kerry Wtd Gender Vote: 50.01
For Kerry+Bush+Nader = 100% (difference goes to Kerry)
Kerry Wtd Gender Vote: 50.82% (within 0.04% of NEP)
..........................................................
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
AL 730
M 46.00% 64.00% 0.00% 34.00% 36.00% 2.00%
F 54.00% 53.00% 1.00% 46.00% 46.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.63% 58.06% 0.54% 40.48% 41.40% 0.92%
AK 910
M 48.00% 63.00% 4.00% 32.00% 33.00% 1.00%
F 52.00% 53.00% 2.00% 45.00% 45.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.25% 57.80% 2.96% 38.76% 39.24% 0.48%
AZ 1859
M 47.00% 56.00% - 43.00% 44.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 50.00% - 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.27% 52.82% - 46.71% 47.18% 0.47%
AR 1402
M 43.00% 58.00% 1.00% 41.00% 41.00% 0.00%
F 57.00% 49.00% 0.00% 50.00% 51.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.62% 52.87% 0.43% 46.13% 46.70% 0.57%
CA 919
M 48.00% 46.00% 0.00% 51.00% 54.00% 3.00%
F 52.00% 41.00% 0.00% 58.00% 59.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.23% 43.40% 0.00% 54.64% 56.60% 1.96%
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
CO 2515
M 47.00% 51.00% 1.00% 46.00% 48.00% 2.00%
F 53.00% 49.00% 0.00% 50.00% 51.00% 1.00%
MoE 1.95% 49.94% 0.47% 48.12% 49.59% 1.47%
CT 872
M 47.00% 42.00% 2.00% 55.00% 56.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 40.00% 1.00% 60.00% 59.00% -1.00%
MoE 3.32% 40.94% 1.47% 57.65% 57.59% -0.06%
DE 770
M 43.00% 47.00% 1.00% 51.00% 52.00% 1.00%
F 57.00% 36.00% 1.00% 62.00% 63.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.53% 40.73% 1.00% 57.27% 58.27% 1.00%
DC 795
M 44.00% 11.00% 1.00% 87.00% 88.00% 1.00%
F 56.00% 8.00% 1.00% 92.00% 91.00% -1.00%
MoE 3.48% 9.32% 1.00% 89.80% 89.68% -0.12%
FL 2846
M 46.00% 52.00% 1.00% 47.00% 47.00% 0.00%
F 54.00% 48.00% 0.00% 52.00% 52.00% 0.00%
MoE 1.84% 49.84% 0.46% 49.70% 49.70% 0.00%
GA 1536
M 44.00% 60.00% 0 39.00% 40.00% 1.00%
F 56.00% 54.00% 0 46.00% 46.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.50% 56.64% 42.92% 43.36% 0.44%
HA 499
M 46.00% 51.00% 0 49.00% 49.00% 0.00%
F 54.00% 43.00% 0 57.00% 57.00% 0.00%
MoE 4.39% 46.68% 53.32% 53.32% 0.00%
ID 539
M 45.00% 69.00% 0 29.00% 31.00% 2.00%
F 55.00% 63.00% 0 36.00% 37.00% 1.00%
MoE 4.22% 65.70% 32.85% 34.30% 1.45%
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
IL 1392
M 46.00% 44.00% 0 55.00% 56.00% 1.00%
F 54.00% 41.00% 0 58.00% 59.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.63% 42.38% 0 56.62% 57.62% 1.00%
IN 926
M 48.00% 60.00% 0.00% 39.00% 40.00% 1.00%
F 52.00% 57.00% 0.00% 42.00% 43.00% 1.00%
MoE 4.39% 58.44% 0.00% 40.56% 41.56% 1.00%
IA 2502
M 46.00% 50.00% 2.00% 47.00% 48.00% 1.00%
F 54.00% 47.00% 1.00% 52.00% 52.00% 0.00%
MoE 4.22% 48.38% 1.46% 49.70% 50.16% 0.46%
KS 654
M 45.00% 65.00% 1.00% 33.00% 34.00% 1.00%
F 55.00% 64.00% 1.00% 35.00% 35.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.83% 64.45% 1.00% 34.10% 34.55% 0.45%
KY 1034
M 46.00% 60.00% 1.00% 38.00% 39.00% 1.00%
F 54.00% 57.00% 0.00% 42.00% 43.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.05% 58.38% 0.46% 40.16% 41.16% 1.00%
LA 1669
M 45.00% 58.00% 1.00% 40.00% 41.00% 1.00%
F 55.00% 52.00% 0.00% 47.00% 48.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.40% 54.70% 0.45% 43.85% 44.85% 1.00%
ME 1968
M 47.00% 48.00% 2.00% 49.00% 50.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 41.00% 1.00% 58.00% 58.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.21% 44.29% 1.47% 53.77% 54.24% 0.47%
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
MD 1000
M 46.00% 45.00% 0.00% 54.00% 55.00% 1.00%
F 54.00% 40.00% 1.00% 58.00% 59.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.10% 42.30% 0.54% 56.16% 57.16% 1.00%
MA 869
M 48.00% 36.00% 0.00% 61.00% 64.00% 3.00%
F 52.00% 30.00% 0.00% 69.00% 70.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.32% 32.88% 0.00% 65.16% 67.12% 1.96%
MI 2452
M 50.00% 48.00% 1.00% 49.00% 51.00% 2.00%
F 50.00% 45.00% 1.00% 54.00% 54.00% 0.00%
MoE 1.98% 46.50% 1.00% 51.50% 52.50% 1.00%
MN 2178
M 48.00% 45.00% 1.00% 53.00% 54.00% 1.00%
F 52.00% 44.00% 1.00% 54.00% 55.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.10% 44.48% 1.00% 53.52% 54.52% 1.00%
MS 798
M 47.00% 56.00% 1.00% 43.00% 43.00% 0.00%
F 53.00% 57.00% 0.00% 43.00% 43.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.47% 56.53% 0.47% 43.00% 43.00% 0.00%
MO 2158
M 47.00% 52.00% 0.00% 47.00% 48.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 52.00% 0.00% 47.00% 48.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.11% 52.00% 0.00% 47.00% 48.00% 1.00%
MT 640
M 51.00% 57.00% 3.00% 38.00% 40.00% 2.00%
F 49.00% 59.00% 3.00% 37.00% 38.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.87% 57.98% 3.00% 37.51% 39.02% 1.51%
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
NE 785
M 48.00% 62.00% 2.00% 36.00% 36.00% 0.00%
F 52.00% 63.00% 1.00% 36.00% 36.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.50% 62.52% 1.48% 36.00% 36.00% 0.00%
NV 2116
M 48.00% 51.00% 3.00% 45.00% 46.00% 1.00%
F 52.00% 45.00% 1.00% 53.00% 54.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.13% 47.88% 1.96% 49.16% 50.16% 1.00%
NH 1849
M 51.00% 47.00% 0.00% 52.00% 53.00% 1.00%
F 49.00% 41.00% 2.00% 58.00% 57.00% -1.00%
MoE 2.28% 44.06% 0.98% 54.94% 54.96% 0.02%
NM 1951
M 46.00% 48.00% 2.00% 49.00% 50.00% 1.00%
F 54.00% 47.00% 1.00% 51.00% 52.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.22% 47.46% 1.46% 50.08% 51.08% 1.00%
NY 1476
MoE 2.55% 33.80% 65.10% 65.10% 0.00%
NC 2099
MoE 2.14% 51.80% 48.20% 48.20% 0.00%
ND 649
M 49.00% 68.00% 2.00% 29.00% 30.00% 1.00%
F 51.00% 61.00% 2.00% 36.00% 37.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.85% 64.43% 2.00% 32.57% 33.57% 1.00%
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
OH 1963
M 47.00% 49.00% 0 51.00% 51.00% 0.00%
F 53.00% 47.00% 0 53.00% 53.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.21% 47.94% 0 52.06% 52.06% 0.00%
OK 1539
M 48.00% 66.00% 0 33.00% 34.00% 1.00%
F 52.00% 64.00% 0 36.00% 36.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.50% 64.96% 0 34.56% 35.04% 0.48%
OR 1054
M 45.00% 55.00% 0 42.00% 45.00% 3.00%
F 55.00% 42.00% 0 57.00% 58.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.02% 47.85% 0 50.25% 52.15% 1.90%
PA 1930
M 47.00% 48.00% 0 52.00% 52.00% 0.00%
F 53.00% 43.00% 0 56.00% 57.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.23% 45.35% 0 54.12% 54.65% 0.53%
RI 809
M 47.00% 37.00% 2.00% 60.00% 61.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 33.00% 2.00% 65.00% 65.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.45% 34.88% 2.00% 62.65% 63.12% 0.47%
SC 1935
M 43.00% 58.00% 1.00% 40.00% 41.00% 1.00%
F 57.00% 50.00% 1.00% 49.00% 49.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.23% 53.44% 1.00% 45.13% 45.56% 0.43%
SD 1495
M 51.00% 61.00% 3.00% 35.00% 36.00% 1.00%
F 49.00% 61.00% 1.00% 38.00% 38.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.53% 61.00% 2.02% 36.47% 36.98% 0.51%
Original <100% Adj 100%
Weight BUSH NADER KERRY KERRY Diff
TN 1774
M 48.00% 58.00% 2.00% 39.00% 40.00% 1.00%
F 52.00% 58.00% 0.00% 42.00% 42.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.33% 58.00% 0.96% 40.56% 41.04% 0.48%
TX 1671
M 46.00% 59.00% 0 39.00% 41.00% 2.00%
F 54.00% 65.00% 0 34.00% 35.00% 1.00%
MoE 2.40% 62.24% 0 36.30% 37.76% 1.46%
UT 798
M 46.00% 67.00% 3.00% 28.00% 30.00% 2.00%
F 54.00% 69.00% 1.00% 30.00% 30.00% 0.00%
MoE 3.47% 68.08% 1.92% 29.08% 30.00% 0.92%
VT 685
M 45.00% 36.00% 2.00% 62.00% 62.00% 0.00%
F 55.00% 31.00% 3.00% 65.00% 66.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.74% 33.25% 2.55% 63.65% 64.20% 0.55%
VA 1432
MoE 2.59% 49.70% 50.20% 50.20% 0.00%
WA 2123
M 43.00% 48.00% 1.00% 49.00% 51.00% 2.00%
F 57.00% 41.00% 1.00% 58.00% 58.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.13% 44.01% 1.00% 54.13% 54.99% 0.86%
WV 1722
M 47.00% 54.00% 1.00% 44.00% 45.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 54.00% 1.00% 45.00% 45.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.36% 54.00% 1.00% 44.53% 45.00% 0.47%
WI 2223
M 47.00% 52.00% 2.00% 45.00% 46.00% 1.00%
F 53.00% 46.00% 1.00% 53.00% 53.00% 0.00%
MoE 2.08% 48.82% 1.47% 49.24% 49.71% 0.47%
WY 684
M 51.00% 67.00% 3.00% 28.00% 30.00% 2.00%
F 49.00% 64.00% 1.00% 34.00% 35.00% 1.00%
MoE 3.75% 65.53% 2.02% 30.94% 32.45% 1.51%
..................................................................
Vote = total state vote (millions)
Size = state exit poll sample size
MOE = state exit poll margin of error
Pct = Kerry exit poll percentage
Wtd = state weight = state vote/122.17mm
Diff = Pct difference before and after 100% adj.
Posted Totals <100% Adj. Totals =100%
Vote Size MoE Pct Wtd Pct Wtd Diff
Sum/Avg 122.17 72714 2.89% 48.12% 50.01% 48.82% 50.82% 0.80%
AL 1.883 730 3.63% 40.5% 0.62% 41.4% 0.64% 0.92%
AK 0.312 910 3.25% 38.8% 0.10% 39.2% 0.10% 0.48%
AZ 2.013 1859 2.27% 46.7% 0.77% 47.2% 0.78% 0.47%
AR 1.056 1402 2.62% 46.1% 0.40% 46.7% 0.40% 0.57%
CA 12.392 919 3.23% 54.6% 5.54% 56.6% 5.74% 1.96%
CO 2.128 2515 1.95% 48.1% 0.84% 49.6% 0.86% 1.47%
CT 1.579 872 3.32% 57.7% 0.74% 57.6% 0.74% -0.06%
DC 0.227 795 3.48% 89.8% 0.17% 89.7% 0.28% -0.12%
DE 0.375 770 3.53% 57.3% 0.18% 58.3% 0.11% 1.00%
FL 7.604 2846 1.84% 49.7% 3.09% 49.7% 3.09% 0.00%
GA 3.299 1536 2.50% 42.9% 1.16% 43.4% 1.17% 0.44%
HA 0.429 499 4.39% 53.3% 0.19% 53.3% 0.19% 0.00%
ID 0.598 539 4.22% 32.9% 0.16% 34.3% 0.17% 1.45%
IL 5.275 1392 2.63% 56.6% 2.44% 57.6% 2.49% 1.00%
IN 2.468 926 4.39% 40.6% 0.82% 41.6% 0.84% 1.00%
IA 1.505 2502 4.22% 49.7% 0.61% 50.2% 0.62% 0.46%
KS 1.188 654 3.83% 34.1% 0.33% 34.6% 0.34% 0.45%
KY 1.796 1034 3.05% 40.2% 0.59% 41.2% 0.61% 1.00%
LA 1.939 1669 2.40% 43.9% 0.70% 44.9% 0.71% 1.00%
ME 0.741 1968 2.21% 53.8% 0.33% 54.2% 0.33% 0.47%
MD 2.384 1000 3.10% 56.2% 1.10% 57.2% 1.12% 1.00%
MA 2.905 869 3.32% 65.2% 1.55% 67.1% 1.60% 1.96%
MI 4.838 2452 1.98% 51.5% 2.04% 52.5% 2.08% 1.00%
MN 2.823 2178 2.10% 53.5% 1.24% 54.5% 1.26% 1.00%
MS 1.138 798 3.47% 43.0% 0.40% 43.0% 0.40% 0.00%
MO 2.731 2158 2.11% 47.0% 1.05% 48.0% 1.07% 1.00%
MT 0.450 640 3.87% 37.5% 0.14% 39.0% 0.14% 1.51%
NE 0.777 785 3.50% 36.0% 0.23% 36.0% 0.23% 0.00%
NV 0.826 2116 2.13% 49.2% 0.33% 50.2% 0.34% 1.00%
NH 0.676 1849 2.28% 54.9% 0.30% 55.0% 0.30% 0.02%
NJ 3.610 1520 2.56% 53.4% 1.58% 53.4% 1.58% 0.00%
NM 0.756 1951 2.22% 50.1% 0.31% 51.1% 0.32% 1.00%
NY 7.389 1476 2.55% 65.1% 3.94% 65.1% 3.94% 0.00%
NC 3.501 2099 2.14% 48.2% 1.38% 48.2% 1.38% 0.00%
ND 0.313 649 3.85% 32.6% 0.08% 33.6% 0.09% 1.00%
OH 5.625 1963 2.21% 52.1% 2.40% 52.1% 2.40% 0.00%
OK 1.464 1539 2.50% 34.6% 0.41% 35.0% 0.42% 0.48%
OR 1.828 1054 3.02% 50.3% 0.75% 52.2% 0.78% 1.90%
PA 5.766 1930 2.23% 54.1% 2.55% 54.7% 2.58% 0.53%
RI 0.436 809 3.45% 62.7% 0.22% 63.1% 0.23% 0.47%
SC 1.616 1935 2.23% 45.1% 0.60% 45.6% 0.60% 0.43%
SD 0.388 1495 2.53% 36.5% 0.12% 37.0% 0.12% 0.51%
TN 2.437 1774 2.33% 40.6% 0.81% 41.0% 0.82% 0.48%
TX 7.410 1671 2.40% 36.3% 2.20% 37.8% 2.29% 1.46%
UT 0.927 798 3.47% 29.1% 0.22% 30.0% 0.23% 0.92%
VT 0.311 685 3.74% 63.7% 0.16% 64.2% 0.16% 0.55%
VA 3.193 1432 2.59% 50.2% 1.31% 50.2% 1.31% 0.00%
WA 2.857 2123 2.13% 54.1% 1.27% 55.0% 1.29% 0.86%
WV 0.756 1722 2.36% 44.5% 0.28% 45.0% 0.28% 0.47%
WI 2.993 2223 2.08% 49.2% 1.21% 49.7% 1.22% 0.47%
WY 0.243 684 3.75% 30.9% 0.06% 32.5% 0.06% 1.51%
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