Reply #6: I'm not sure what you are saying here [View All]

[OnTheOtherHand]

They weight male/female (based on interviewer report of non-respondent demographics) before they weight to vote counts -- before they have vote counts. This is part of the age-race-sex adjustment.

They could ditch those targets or maintain them equally quickly, I assume, although ditching them would be conceptually simpler. If I were them, I would certainly maintain them; it would be fairly nutty to respond to an apparent underestimate of the Bush vote by thinking, "Gee, I guess we should reduce the female turnout!" (Or, more likely to be obvious, the black turnout.)

I dunno what the "con" is. I don't suppose any election night is a "normal day at the office," but AFAICT Mitofsky has always reweighted the exit poll results to correspond with the official returns. It may seem strange to some of us that he didn't assume his survey was better than the official returns, but it doesn't seem strange to most survey researchers of my acquaintance. Even if you think that 7-10 million votes were stolen, I see no reason to assume that anyone at E/M thought so.