Reply #7: Here you go... [View All]

[autorank]

TruthIsAll:

"Now we know why the gender weights were never changed
(from 54% Female/46%
Male) in the Final Exit Poll: Kerry would still win,
regardless of any
plausible change in the mix. 

Note that 54/46 (rounded) is probably correct, since it's
confirmed by the
census and state exit polls (53.51% and 53.76%), but that is
not the point
here.

EVEN WITH A RIDICULOUS 64% MALE/ 36% FEMALE TURNOUT, KERRY
TIES BUSH!

THE FINAL EXIT POLL (THE ONLY TIMELINE WHICH BUSH WON) COULD
ONLY BE
MATCHED TO THE RECORDED VOTE BY CHANGING THE KERRY/BUSH VOTING
PERCENTAGES!


Ask yourself: Why does the gender split stay constant from the
12:22AM
(13047 respondents) exit poll timeline to the 1:25PM (13660)
final, unlike
the following demographics:

HOW VOTED IN 2000: 41 Bush/39 Kerry changed to 43/37.
PARTY ID: 38 DEM/35 REP changed to 37/37.

One would expect the gender split to change slightly as well.
Well,
actually it was changed to 54/46 at the 7:33pm time line from
58/42 at
4:00pm -  and stayed constant thereafter.

Remember when the naysayers claimed that the early exit polls
were biased
in Kerry's favor because they oversampled women? What ever
became of that
canard?

NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE:
 3:59pm  (8349) Female 58%/ Male 42%; Kerry led 51-48
 7:33pm (11027) Female 54%/ Male 46%; Kerry led 51-48
12:22am (13047) Female 54%/ Male 46%; Kerry led 51-48
 1:25pm (13660) Female 54%/ Male 46%; Bush led 51-48

Why were the weights unchanged in the FINAL? Well, unlike
"How Voted
in 2000" and "Party ID", changing the Gender
weights had no
effect on the result: KERRY WOULD STILL WIN. 

Once again, why change the Gender mix from the 12:22am time
line,
especially if they were within the MoE? 

To repeat: CHANGING THE WEIGHTS WOULD HAVE NO EFFECT. SO
THEREFORE THE VOTE
PERCENTAGES HAD TO BE CHANGED.

And why change Party ID and How Voted weights, if they were
within the MoE?

Here's why: IN ORDER TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE, THE WEIGHTS
AND
PERCENTAGES HAD TO BE CHANGED. CHANGING ONLY THE PERCENTAGES
IS NOT ENOUGH
TO DO THE TRICK.

Food for thought for those who dare to think.

Now lets play "what-if" with the gender mix.
____________________________________________________________

PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL			
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents			
					
GENDER	MIX	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	46%	56.20	47%	52%	1%
Female 	54%	65.97	54%	45%	1%

Total 	100%		50.78%	48.22%	1.00%
Vote  	      122.17	62.04	58.91	1.22

KERRY WINS BY 3.1 MM VOTES WITH 50.78%

_____________________________________________________________

FINAL EXIT POLL	- no change in weights		
Nov. 3,  1:25pm, 13660 respondents			
				
        MIX	Kerry	Bush	Other	
Male   46%	44%	55%	1%	
Female 54%	51%	48%	1%

Total  100%	47.78%	51.22%	1.00%
Vote   122.17	58.37	62.58	1.22	

BUSH WINS BY 4.2 MM VOTES


____________________________________________________

Scenario I:
50% MALE /50% FEMALE 

KERRY WINS BY 2.45MM VOTES WITH 50.50%

GENDER	MIX	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	50%	61.09	47%	52%	1%
Female 	50%	61.09	54%	45%	1%

Total 	100%		50.50%	48.50%	1.00%
Vote	      122.17	61.70	59.25	1.22


____________________________________________________

Scenario II
54% MALE/ 46% FEMALE 

KERRY WINS BY 1.75MM VOTES WITH 50.22%

GENDER	MIX	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	54%	65.97	47%	52%	1%
Female 	46%	56.20	54%	45%	1%

Total 	100%	      50.22%	48.78%	1.00%
Vote        122.17 61.35	59.60	1.22


____________________________________________________

Scenario III

64% MALE/ 36% FEMALE 

A VIRTUAL TIE: KERRY 49.52% / BUSH 49.48%!

GENDER	MIX	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	64%	78.19	47%	52%	1%
Female 	36%	43.98	54%	45%	1%

Total 	100%  	      49.52%	49.48%	1%
Vote	      122.17 60.50 60.45 1.22"

TruthIsAll