Reply #11: The problem is that these are not the raw numbers [View All]

[hugo_from_TN]

The early exit poll numbers are adjusted and the later numbers are adjusted. The early numbers use the pre-election polls to adjust the exit polls to fit the expected demographic of the turnout. The later numbers use the actual vote results to do the same thing. The exit polls are not put in place to be representative of the total vote, which is (1) why they have to be adjusted to the vote and (2) why they can't be used in all cases to predict the actual winner. I think they could design an exit poll to be reflective of the actual voting populace (by carefully selecting the mix of precincts, etc.) but they don't do that because that isn't the goal.