Reply #139: Pandemics [View All]

[YouBigMouth]

The last pandemic was in 1968-69.

Three or four times a century, a radical change occurs in the genetic material of the influenza A virus and a new sub-type will suddenly appear. Because it is a radically different strain, the protection and immunity that people have developed against influenza may not protect them. Everyone is, therefore, susceptible to infection and will be at greater risk of developing severe complications like pneumonia. In such a situation, the virus may spread rapidly around the world, and an influenza pandemic - may result.

There have been three pandemics since 1900. The largest was the Spanish Flu, from 1918-19. The next one did not occur until 1957-58, and the final one in 1968-69.

* 1918-19, "Spanish flu," , caused the highest number of known flu deaths: more than 500,000 people died in the United States, and 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults.
* 1957-58, "Asian flu," , caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957.
* 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu," , caused approximately 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. Type A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.



From these three data points, scientists are projecting a new pandemic within 5-10 years. That's obviously drawn from the average of 105 years divided by 3 pandemics. And that's sloppy math.

It was 39 years between numbers 1 and 2, 50 years between 1 and 3 and 11 years between numbers 2 and 3. Based on these numbers, I could project a new influenza pandemic by 2008, or state with certainty that we have already had a flu pandemic, or any number of other conclusions.

The primary thing to remember is that scientists need money to perform their research. The best way to get that money is to demonstrate a need to the public. The validity of the need has nothing to do with the demonstration of the need.

SARS was the last big scare. Remember how that turned out? Before that, we needed vaccinations for smallpox. What happened to that panic? Then, there was anthrax, swine flu, etc. The basic fact of life is that we spend tons of money on illnesses that turn out to be far less threatening than we were led to believe.

Bird flu is caught by poor people who handle chickens and ducks on a regular basis. It has been around since 1997. A handful of cases are presumed to have been spread person to person, and, as usual in these matters, a handful of cases exist where it is not known how the patient got the avian flu.

The reported symptoms of avian influenza in humans have ranged from typical influenza-like symptoms (e.g., fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches) to eye infections (conjunctivitis), pneumonia, acute respiratory distress, viral pneumonia, and other severe and life-threatening complications.

In a 2003 outbreak in the Netherlands, of 89 cases, there were 78 cases of conjunctivitis. In 2004, a Canadian outbreak was limited to eye infections. That's a very common result of avian flu, but they don't tell you that because it won't scare you into funding research.

There are different strains of bird flu. Some can make you very sick. But, recall, that most cases involve people who live in third world nations, are poor, and thus have poorer health and limited access to medical care. You know what? People like that ARE more likely to die when they get sick.

The CDC says the following about a normal flu season:

Each flu season is unique, but it is estimated that, on average, approximately 5% to 20% of U.S. residents get the flu, and more than 200,000 persons are hospitalized for flu-related complications each year. About 36,000 Americans die on average per year from the complications of flu.

Drugs are available:

Three antiviral drugs (amantadine, rimantadine, and oseltamivir) are approved and commercially available for use in preventing flu. All of these medications are prescription drugs, and a doctor should be consulted before the drugs are used. When used for prevention, they are about 70% to 90% effective for preventing illness in healthy adults.

Four antiviral drugs (amantadine, rimantadine, zanamavir and oseltamivir) have been approved for treatment of the flu. If taken within 2 days of getting sick, these drugs can reduce the symptoms of the flu and shorten the time you are sick by 1 or 2 days. They also can make you less contagious to others. All of these drugs must be prescribed by a doctor and taken for 5 days. Antiviral drugs are effective only against influenza viruses. They will not help the symptoms associated with the common cold or many other flu-like illnesses caused by viruses that circulate in the winter.

All of the antiviral drugs are different in terms of who can take them, how they are given, any dosing changes based on age or medical conditions, and side effects. Your doctors will help decide whether you should get antivirals and which one you should get.

There are vaccines every year but there are growing signs that they aren't very effective. Michele Malkin has been doing a great job on the effectiveness of vaccines, including the flu vaccine.

Is there a danger of an influenza pandemic in the future? Yes. Can anyone predict when it will happen? No, especially not by dividing 3 into 105. Could avian flu be the next pandemic? Probably not, it's been known for nine years and hasn't gotten any deadlier or produced a person to person transmitted strain. Would the WHO like lots more money to prevent a pandemic. You betcha!

And... realistically, the people most in danger from a pandemic are the same people who are, today, in danger from AIDS, malaria, malnutrition, etc. Poor third world folks. And if we get an influenza pandemic, we won't be able to help them much more than we currently do for all the other ills that afflict them. Sad, very sad, but true.