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tiptoe
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:48 PM Original message |
1988-2000 Exit Poll Discrepancies were due to Uncounted Votes; but 2004 Differed in Kind and Scope |
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Uncounted and Switched Votes TruthIsAll source: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide, Ch. 19 1988-2004: Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast — from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 1988–2004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share. Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote: (2-party exit poll share in parenthesis) Year Democrat RECORDED VOTE-COUNT UNCOUNTED ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL AVERAGE 46.9 % 48.9 % 48.8 % (52.7) 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 Kerry Gore Clinton Clinton Dukakis 48.3 48.4 49.2 43.0 45.6 49.0 49.7 51.4 45.7 48.7 51.8 49.4 50.2 45.7 46.8 (52.3) (51.4) (55.8) (56.8) (47.3) Look at this ?click">graph: In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic EXIT POLL share exceeded the RECORDED vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share. The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections. Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone. The analysis shown below indicates that given Census 2000/2004 estimates of total votes cast and 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” shares, Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote! Even using Final NEP vote shares, Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters! The Final was 'forced' to match the recorded vote using mathematically impossible weights and by sharply increasing Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP. There are some exit poll critics who claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique, and, therefore, to conclude that the election was stolen based on exit poll results is "crap" and "bad science". After all, they say, there were no allegations of fraud in 1992. They fail to mention or are unaware of the fact that in 1992 Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%), but that 9.4m votes were uncounted, of which 70–80% were Democratic ( 75% Dem / 25% Rep are used in the model). When uncounted votes are included, the 52.0–41.5m adjusted vote (45.7–36.4%), exactly matched Clinton’s unadjusted exit poll. From 1988-2000, after the uncounted adjustment, there was a 0.85% average Democratic exit poll discrepancy and 2.9 WPE. In 2004, after the 3.4m uncounted vote adjustment, the exit poll discrepancy was 2.8% and Bush's margin was reduced from 3.0m (62.0–59.0) to 1.3m (62.9–61.6). But ... Uncounted votes were only one component of Election Fraud 2004. The Election Calculator Model determined that approximately 5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush. Recorded and Uncounted Votes Year States Reported VOTES COUNTED VOTES COUNTED Dem Rep Other COUNTED-VOTE Shares Dem Rep Other VOTES UNCOUNTED ~75% Dem ~25% Rep/Oth AVERAGE 104.0 48.8 47.9 7.2 46.9% 46.0% 7.1% 3.76 7.5 5.7 1.9 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 122.3 105.4 96.3 104.4 91.6 59.0 51.0 47.4 44.9 41.8 62.0 50.5 39.1 39.0 48.9 1.2 4.0 9.7 20.4 0.9 48.3% 48.4% 49.2% 43.0% 45.6% 50.7% 47.9% 40.7% 37.4% 53.4% 1.0% 3.8% 10.1% 19.6% 1.0% 7.09 2.01 1.93 5.40 2.38 3.4 5.4 8.7 9.4 10.6 2.6 4.0 6.5 7.1 7.9 0.9 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.6 Total Votes Cast vs. Exit Poll Year Adjusted Census Reported VOTES CAST COUNTED+UNCOUNTED Dem Rep Other UNCOUNTED-Adjusted Sh Dem Rep Other EXIT POLL Dem post-Adj Diff EP2pty Dem UNCTD / CAST AVERAGE 111.5 54.5 49.8 7.2 48.9% 44.6% 6.5% 48.8% 0.1% 52.7% 7.0% 125.7 110.8 105.0 113.9 102.2 61.6 55.0 54.0 52.0 49.8 62.9 51.8 41.4 41.5 51.5 1.2 4.0 9.7 20.4 0.9 49.0% 49.7% 51.4% 45.7% 48.7% 50.0% 46.8% 39.4% 36.4% 50.4% 1.0% 3.6% 9.2% 17.9% 0.9% 51.8% 49.4% 50.2% 45.7% 46.8% -2.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 1.9% 52.3% 51.4% 55.8% 56.8% 47.3% 2.74% 4.86% 8.31% 8.48% 10.37% The Census Bureau website states the following: “The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the “official” turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million). For further information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, go here. The difference between the 2004 recorded vote total and the U.S. Census estimate is 3.45m votes. The Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. According to investigative reporter Greg Palast, government records show that 3.006m votes were uncounted, comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots. Note that the 3.4m estimated difference is a net figure. In 13 states the official vote exceeded the Census estimate by 730,000 votes. The largest discrepancies were in Florida (238k), Ohio (143k) and Tennessee (118k). Apparently more votes were padded than suppressed in the 13 states. But the net discrepancy does not contain the necessary information to calculate the actual number of uncounted and padded votes. There are many combinations which would provide the net number. For example, of the 3.4m vote difference, 4.0m could have been suppressed (uncounted) and 0.6m padded (stuffed). Or 5.0m suppressed and 1.6m padded. In Florida, the least onerous case would be if the total 238k discrepancy was due to vote padding. But it is far more likely that vote padding occurred in Republican districts while vote suppression took place in heavily Democratic minority districts. The net 238k difference could have been due to 338k padded and 100k suppressed votes. The Election Calculator 2000: US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted 2004 Calculated True Vote True 'Voted in 2000' Mix 12:22am NEP ('13047') 'Voted in 2000' Shares Recorded Vote-Count Uncounted Allocation 4.04 1.08 0.27 5.38 Vote-Count Adjusted 55.04 51.53 4.23 110.80 Deaths 2.72 2.48 0.21 5.41 Alive 52.32 49.06 4.02 105.39 Est '04 Turnout of 'Voted 2000' DNV 95% 95% 95% 100.13 Total Votes Cast in '04 'Voted 2000' Weight 20.4% 39.5% 37.1% 3.0% 100.0% 125.74 Kerry 57% 91% 10% 64% 53.2% 66.9 Bush 41% 8% 90% 17% 45.4% 57.1 Other 2% 1% 0% 19% 1.37% 1.73 Sensitivity Analysis Kerry National Vote Kerry Share of Gore Voters Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000) 53.2% 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 95% 93% 91% 89% 87% 54.0% 53.2% 52.4% 51.6% 50.8% 54.4% 53.6% 52.8% 52.0% 51.2% 54.8% 54.0% 53.2% 52.4% 51.7% 55.2% 54.4% 53.6% 52.8% 52.1% 55.6% 54.8% 54.0% 53.3% 52.5% Kerry Margin (millions) 9.87 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 95% 93% 91% 89% 87% 11.8 9.8 7.8 5.8 3.8 12.8 10.8 8.8 6.9 4.9 13.8 11.9 9.9 7.9 5.9 14.9 12.9 10.9 8.9 6.9 15.9 13.9 11.9 9.9 7.9 Refer to source for three other Sensitivity Analyses on Kerry's National Vote. Required Bush share of returning Gore voters: 2000-2004 uncounted vote scenarios Most likely scenario: 2000/2004 U.S. Vote Census estimates & the 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” shares (13047 random selection, 1% MoE): Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote! Least likely scenario: U.S. Vote Census estimates and the 'forced' Final NEP “Voted 2000” shares (13660 respondents): Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote! Assumptions • 1.22% annual voter mortality • 95% of 2000 voters turned out to vote in 2004 • Final NEP vote shares: Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004: Bush required 18.1% of returning Gore Voters Uncounted votes not included: Bush required 16.3% of returning Gore Voters Refer to source for "Final NEP 'Voted 2000' shares" Data and Calculations. • 12:22am NEP vote shares: Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004: Bush required 21.5% of returning Gore Voters Uncounted votes not included: Bush required 20.0% of returning Gore Voters Refer to source for "12:22am NEP 'Voted 2000' shares" Data and Calculations. Calculation of Switched Votes Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to BushGiven: 125.74m votes cast (2004 Census) 122.29m votes recorded 3.45m votes uncounted Assume: 2.58m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry 0.87% annual mortality 95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters Calculate: The approximate number of Kerry votes which were switched to Bush. True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Net Uncounted (U) + Switched (S) S = 4.49 = T − R − U = 66.10 − 59.03 − 2.58 Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush Switched vote rate: SVR = S / T = 4.5/ 66.10 = 6.8% True Vote Reconciliation Kerry Bush Other Total Recorded 59.027 62.040 1.228 122.30 Share 75% 24% 1% 100% Uncounted 2.584 0.827 0.034 3.445 (Adjusted) 61.611 62.867 1.262 125.74 Switched +4.488 −4.488 0.000 0.000 Share +6.79% −7.69% 0.00% 0.00% True Vote 66.097 58.375 1.262 125.74 Share 52.57% 46.43% 1.01% 100.0% Kerry Bush Other Total VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS (Votes in thousands)
KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION True Vote Uncounted Net Switched Recorded 66,097 -2,582 63,515 -4,488 59,027 100.0% 3.91% 96.09% 6.79% 89.30% EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE True Vote (000s) Electoral Vote (EV) Recorded Vote-Count Change True Vote shares Kerry 59,027 7,070 66,097 52.57% Bush 62,040 -3,662 58,378 46.43% Kerry 252 97 336 Bush 286 -97 202 BASE CASE SUMMARY Switched votes: 6.8% Uncounted Votes: 3,442 (000s) Uncounted Alloocation: 75%-K 24%-B 1%-O Uncounted % 75% 24% 1% 2.74% Kerry Bush Other Total Recorded 59027 62040 1228 122295 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100.0% Uncounted 2582 826 34 3442 Adjusted 61609 62866 1262 125737 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% 100.0% 2.11% 0.68% 0.03% 2.81% Switched +4488 −4488 0 0 True Vote 66097 58375 1262 125737 Share 52.57% 46.43% 1.01% 100.0% Kerry Bush Other Total SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I
Refer to source for: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry vote share SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry margin State Uncounted (net) and Switched Votes (in thousands)
Padded Votes
Uncounted Votes
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