http://news.ft.com/cms/s/39769c38-4489-11d9-9f6a-00000e2511c8.htmlAs American troop reinforcements head to Iraq, the Bush administration is slowly coming to terms with the realisation that elections scheduled for next month could spell the end of Iyad Allawi, prime minister and the secular US favourite, and usher in a quasi-theocracy.
Nothing is certain, not even the January 30 election date, yet there is a growing expectation in Washington that a coalition dominated by religious parties of the Shia majority is likely to emerge as the first Shia Muslim government in the Arab world. One US official, an expert on the Middle East, reflected on the unforeseen consequences of last year's invasion. "Now we are willing to countenance a limited theocracy in Iraq, limited by a weak basic law that guarantees basic civil liberties," said the official, who asked not to be named. "That was not the original idea."
The sweeping vision of neoconservatives of a secular, democratic Iraq that would transform the political equation in the region and recognise Israel had been shattered, said the official. Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, a Shia cleric and leader of the Iranian-backed Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), is one of several names circulating in Washington as a likely prime minister. Others include Adel Abd al-Mahdi, the current finance minister and Sciri member, and Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the current vice president and head of the Shia Dawa party.
Some leading neoconservatives in Washington are dismayed at the weakening of secular moderates by the persistent Sunni insurgency. Richard Perle, former adviser to the Pentagon, says the big mistake was not to have installed an early government of exiles. Charles Krauthammer, a commentator, warned the Shia and Kurdish minority that the US was not ready to fight "their civil war" against the Sunnis indefinitely. The US wanted to "maintain this idea of a unified, non-ethnic Iraq". "At some point, however, we must decide whether that is possible and how many American lives should be sacrificed in its name." Experts on Iraq and the Shia at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a leading neoconservative policy group, are still upbeat.They believe a Shia-led coalition that will oversee the process of writing a constitution next year will remain democratic and make compromises. Although religious, it will not be a theocracy because Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most influential spiritual leader, will stay in the background.
Despite the groups' ties to Iran and its Revolutionary Guards, they say Sciri and Dawa are not beholden to the ayatollahs in Iran.Michael Rubin, a former US adviser in Iraq and now an AEI analyst, predicts a broad-based coalition with a "religious colouring". Mr Allawi, whose party has not yet managed to form a coalition slate, is likely to lose out, says Mr Rubin, who believes Central Intelligence Agency polling data overestimate the popularity of their protégé. "The Bush administration sees Afghanistan as a success story and wants to replicate it, but Allawi is no Hamid Karzai," says Mr Rubin, referring to the elected Afghan president. Reuel Gerecht, a former CIA operative who joined AEI, believes the US administration is prepared for a lot of Sunnis not to vote because of intimidation or boycott. "But they are not fully prepared for the Shia winning and Allawi possibly going down."
A Shia-led government would want US forces to continue fighting the Sunni insurgents - until Iraqi security forces were trained in numbers. Mr Hakim, recalls Mr Gerecht, encouraged President George W. Bush to stay the course during their private meeting in the White House last January. More problematic is the reaction of Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours to a Shia leadership in Baghdad. Officials say a flurry of meetings with Arab leaders is aimed at gaining their acceptance of what the elections may produce while encouraging the Sunnis to participate and reining in the ex-Ba'athists. "The Jordanians and the Saudis are allergic to a Shia-dominated government and are revolted at the prospect," says Mr Gerecht.
A conference at the US Institute of Peace, which is assisting Iraq, heard from experts and senior US and Iraqi officials this week that election preparations were on track in all but three provinces. More than 4,000 candidates have registered so far. "It's time for these people to vote. And I am looking forward to it," Mr Bush said in the Oval Office yesterday. "The elections should not be postponed." Ronald Schlicher, the State Department's co-ordinator for Iraq, said the US would hav e to accept the results of a "credible" election.
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