STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 7 December

[UpInArms]

December 7, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 44 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 361 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 50 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1111
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 8, 2004

Dow... 10,547.06 -45.15 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq... 2,151.25 +3.29 (+0.15%)
S&P 500... 1,190.25 -0.92 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.240% -0.030







GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT


Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]


For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Hi All! Ozy's landline is down this morning - so here's the thread for everyone to read and discuss - Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 80.99 Change -0.29 (-0.36%)

Settle 81.28 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.20 Previous Close 81.28

High 81.43 Low 80.92

Today's article is more a of history lesson:

Let's see what happened with the Mexico currency crisis in the '80s:

10. Debt Crisis of the 1980s

http://www.grips.ac.jp/teacher/oono/hp/lecturesF/lec10.htm

excerpt:

Oil dollar recycling of the 1970s

The standard explanation of why the debt crisis occurred in the 1980s is something like the following. We must first look at the 1970s for the background and then what happened in the 1980s. Between these two decades, the financial flows surrounding developing countries changed dramatically.

The 1970s was an inflationary decade. In particular, there were two "oil shocks" in which the world oil price was greatly increased due to political and military reasons, in 1973-74 and 1979-80. As a result, huge oil export earnings flowed into the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). At the same time, non-oil producing developing countries suffered from ballooning trade deficits.

The world's purchasing power was accumulating in OPEC but they had little absorptive capacity. This means that they could not immediately invest the money in domestic industrial projects, so the export earnings were deposited at banks for the moment. The OPEC countries typically deposited their oil receipts in dollar accounts located outside the US (remember, oil receipts are in US dollars). These were called "euro" dollar deposits. How to mobilize this huge euro-dollar deposits for global growth became a big financial problem of the 1970s. This was called the problem of "oil dollar recycling" (American English) or "petrodollar recycling" (British English).

Here, the adjective "euro" means outside the original issuing country. For example, US dollar deposits outside the US (say, in London) are called "euro-dollar deposits." Japanese yen bonds issued in New York is called "euro-yen bonds," and so on. This term has no direct relation to geographical Europe. The point is, in those days "euro" transactions were freer because they were outside the country which wanted to regulate them. But as financial liberalization has proceeded, even the original country dropped regulation and there is no longer added convenience to euro-money. Today, this usage has become a historical term. Virtually everyone thinks the euro is a currency unit of Europe, not an adjective.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Dollar remains just above its new record low vs euro

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38328.3697106019-829051476&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- After falling to another record low Tuesday against the euro, the dollar has largely brushed aside U.S. productivity data. The U.S. currency, after dropping to a record $1.3469 against the common European currency, is currently at $1.3461. The dollar also weakened against the yen, and at 8:50 a.m. Eastern was off 0.4 percent against Japan's currency, at 102.72 yen.

[54anickel]

8. Opec sharply reduces dollar exposure

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/67f88f7c-47cb-11d9-a0fd-00000e2511c8.html

Oil exporters have sharply reduced their exposure to the US dollar over the past three years, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.

Members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries have cut the proportion of deposits held in dollars from 75 per cent in the third quarter of 2001 to 61.5 per cent.

Middle Eastern central banks have reportedly switched reserves from dollars to euros and sterling to avoid incurring losses as the dollar has fallen and prepare for a shift away from pricing oil exports in dollars alone.

Private Middle East investors are believed to be worried about the prospect of US-held assets being frozen as part of the war on terror, leading to accelerated dollar-selling after the re-election of President George W. Bush.

snip>

Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at the French bank, said the Patriot Act, introduced after September 11 to stop US financial institutions being used by terrorists to launder money, was worrying private investors.

more...

[UpInArms]

33. Fed report on Dollar

11:59am 12/07/04 U.S. DOLLAR DOWN 9.9% VS. EUROPE YEAR-OVER-YEAR

11:57am 12/07/04 U.S. DOLLAR DOWN 2.9% IN NOVEMBER: ATLANTA FED INDEX

11:58am 12/07/04 U.S. DOLLAR DOWN 5.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR: ATLANTA FED

[UpInArms]

42. Atlanta Fed: Dollar at lowest level since June 1997

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38328.5263731481-829071839&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- In an illustration of the dollar's ongoing slide, the U.S. currency fell 2.9 percent in November to its lowest level since June 1997, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta index released Tuesday. Based on 1995-97 bilateral trade weights for 15 currencies, declines in the Atlanta Fed index reflects a weakening of the dollar against other major currenies. The overall index in November was 5.8 pecent below its year-ago level, the Atlanta Fed said.

What these reports do not say is that this is when we were finally (after the RayGun/BushI era of dollar devaluation) getting the dollar to be stronger.

[UpInArms]

43. Dollar at another record low vs. euro - Investors are selling $$$

Investors sell U.S. currency as intervention is weighed

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAFDCFD17%2DEB5C%2D4186%2D821D%2D2C9AAD14F350%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar stumbled to another record low against the euro Tuesday and softened against the yen on thoughts the United States would not step in to derail the currency's steep decline.

"Sooner or later, the ECB will have to look at tightening monetary policy," said Wayne Roworth, senior foreign exchange dealer for the CMC Group. "Right now it's more a case of delaying the inevitable."

Against the euro, the dollar dropped to a record $1.3469 and was trading at $1.3442, off 0.3 percent, at 11:40 a.m. Eastern. The dollar was at $1.3400 in the United States late Monday.

The U.S. currency also dropped against Japan's currency, falling 0.5 percent to 102.66 yen, compared to 103.21 yen in late U.S. trade on Monday.

In a joint statement released late Monday, European Central Bank and European finance ministers made clear their discontent with the euro's strength, calling "not welcome" recent swings in the foreign exchange markets.

<snip>

The U.S. currency was also hindered by a Wall Street Journal Europe report that questioned the U.S. government's triple-A bond rating.

"Though Moody's, S&P and Fitch are not looking to downgrade U.S. debt, the prospect of losing the top rating gave the forex market reason to sell dollars," said Kurt Hoeksema, chief dealer, Global Forex Trading.

...more...

[54anickel]

52. Great history lesson article, UIA! Thanks...n/t

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Reports

Dec 7 8:30 AM
Productivity-Rev. Q3
report 1.8%
briefing.com 2.0%
market 2.0%
last report 1.9%
revised -

Dec 7 3:00 PM
Consumer Credit Oct
report -
briefing.com $7.5B
market $6.0B
last report $9.8B
revised -

8:30am 12/07/04 U.S. Q3 FACTORY PRODUCTIVITY REVISED UP 4.6% VS. 4.3%

8:30am 12/07/04 U.S. Q3 NONFINANCIAL PRODUCTIVITY UP 4.2% VS UP 3.3% Q2

8:30am 12/07/04 U.S. Q3 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO UP 1.8% VS.1.9% PREV

U.S. Q3 productivity revised lower to 1.8% rise

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38328.3542814931-829049418&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Productivity in the U.S. non-farm business sector increased at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, revised slightly lower than an earlier estimate of 1.9 percent, the Labor Department estimated Tuesday. The downward revision was unexpected. Economists polled by CBS.Marketwatch forecast non-farm productivity expanded 2.0 percent in the revision. Unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflation and profit pressures - increased at a 1.8 percent annual rate, up from the earlier estimate of 1.5 percent. Over the past four quarters, the output per hour of American businesses has increased 3.1 percent. This is the slowest annual pace since the first quarter of 2003.

[UpInArms]

15. Productivity revised lower to 1.8%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8A0F4211%2D60DA%2D4B14%2D84FB%2D295AE5BD79F0%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy was a bit less productive in the third quarter than previously estimated, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

Output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector rose by an annualized 1.8 percent in the July-September quarter, down from a 1.9 percent estimate released a month ago. See full government release.

The downward revision was unexpected. Economists polled by CBS.Marketwatch forecast non-farm productivity expanded 2.0 percent in the revision. Read Economic Calendar

This is the slowest quarterly increase in productivity since the fourth quarter of 2002.

Productivity rose 3.9 percent in the second quarter and 3.7 percent in the first quarter.

"The fundamental message of the third quarter report remains the same: slower business activity drives quarterly productivity growth lower," said Mat Johnson, economist at ThinkEquity Partners.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. U.S. 3rd-Qtr Productivity Rises at 1.8% Rate; Costs Rise 1.8%

Your snip ends with the gloomy view of slower business activity. Here's the more cheery revision.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=azufnL1idcRo&refer=home

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The productivity of U.S. workers grew at a revised 1.8 percent annual rate from July through September, the smallest gain in almost two years, and labor costs rose, a government report showed.

Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for every hour of work, slowed from a 3.9 percent annual rate in the previous three months, the Labor Department said in Washington. Labor costs also rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate, the second- straight gain.

Businesses added more employees to payrolls and boosted the number of hours worked last quarter to meet demand. The resulting slowdown in productivity suggests companies are having trouble extracting more efficiency from existing employees and may need to boost hiring in coming months to keep up with economic growth.

``In the short-run, it's very positive for the job market,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, before the report. ``If they want to maintain output, companies will have to hire more workers.''

snip>

``While the Fed is likely to be somewhat disappointed by the deceleration in productivity growth, we doubt it will result in a significant acceleration in core price inflation or a more aggressive rate action'' next year, Abate said.

The expected productivity slowdown is more likely to be a drag on corporate profits than fuel inflation, according to Abate and Daiwa's Moran. Other economists are less sanguine about the prospects for labor costs and inflation.

more...

[UpInArms]

56. U.S. Oct. consumer credit up 4.4%, or $7.7 bln

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38328.6250829167-829083856&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer credit grew by $7.7 billion, or a 4.4 percent annual rate, in October to a seasonally adjusted $2.09 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. That's the 11th consecutive monthly increase. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, grew by $1.2 billion, or 1.8 percent. Nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, rose by $6.5 billion, or 6 percent. Consumer credit rose by $13.6 billion in September, revised from the Fed's earlier estimate that credit rose by $9.8 billion. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast an increase of $6.7 billion in October.

[54anickel]

59. Wow! I'm speechless.

[UpInArms]

60. maybe everyone thinks that the falling dollar

will rescue them from their personal debts just like it is going to rescue the USoA from its debts and obligations?

:wtf:

[54anickel]

62. Heh-heh!!! If it falls 50%, won't I only owe 1/2 of my current balance?

Time to rack up some more charges, just in time for the Holiday giving season. Sort of like that old, I can't be out of funds - I still have checks left. The Repub mental capacity at work I guess.

[UpInArms]

4. 9:41 EST numbers and pre-opening blather

Dow 10,531.69 -15.37 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,151.90 +0.65 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,189.07 -1.18 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.234% -0.006

NYSE Volume 61,192,000
Nasdaq Volume 198,797,000

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures market versus fair value continues to indicate a modestly higher open for equities... With Cisco Systems (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Intel (INTC) all hosting analyst meetings today, participants may show some reulcatance to commit to positions until the companies clarify their view of earnings/revenue prospects... Intel's mid-quarter update, however, has raised the expectations bar.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0.

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Still shaping up to be a modestly higher open for the cash market as upbeat sentiment in futures market remains intact... A revision to Q3 Productivity just came in at an annualized rate of 1.8%, versus expectations of 2.0%, and down from the prior estimate of 1.9%... Futures market is taking the number in stride and is essentially unchanged from where it was prior to the release.

8:20AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. At 8:30 ET, the Department of Labor will report its revision to Q3 Productivity (consensus 2.0%)

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures market suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market as crude oil falls below $43/bbl in pre-market trading... The NY Times reports that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is in advanced negotiations to acquire Guidant (GDT) for more than $24 bln... IBM and Lenovo plan to create a new U.S. PC company... Both Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo downgrade AMD to Hold from Buy

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned neutral warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1586.17 would signal that a short- term top has been posted. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 1.50 pts. at 1628.50 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was mostly steady overnight following Monday's decline. However, the door remains open for a possible test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1181.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The March S&P 500 Index was steady at 1191.40 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a mostly steady opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

5. Good Morning UIA. Thanks for starting up the thread this morning. I

was just about to attempt it, but everyone was saved by a phone call that came in. :evilgrin:

I was happy to see the thread up when I returned.

[UpInArms]

7. good morning 54anickel!

starting the "watch" is always disconcerting for me - somehow Ozy makes this look so easy, but the reality is not so :wishingformoreskills:

I'm curious to see what the consumer spending numbers come in at this afternoon.

Will have to wait :)

[54anickel]

10. Up more than earnings again? I know that's how it is in my household. n/t

[54anickel]

14. Starting the "watch"...

Yep, I was saved by the bell (of the telephone). Heh-heh, sorry to have to abandon you to start us off. ;-)

The one time I started it, I must have edited my original post at least 6 times and it still wasn't "quite right", but functional.

I am so very grateful to Ozy for starting us off every morning. :grouphug:

[54anickel]

6. Food prices to rise up to 4%

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/12/07/food_prices_to_rise_up_to_4/

WASHINGTON -- US food prices will rise by as much as 4 percent this year, the biggest increase in 14 years, due to more costly beef, milk, and fresh vegetables, the Agriculture Department said yesterday.

"It looks like we're going to end up between 3.5 and 4 percent higher," Ephraim Leibtag, an economist with the USDA's Economic Research Service, said about food prices in 2004.

By comparison, food price inflation was 2.2 percent in 2003 and 1.8 percent in 2002.

A big factor in this year's food price increase is beef, which soared by as much as 11 percent due partly to consumers adopting a higher protein diet. Milk, dairy products, and eggs rose by as much as 8 percent, the USDA said.

bit more about fuel adding to transport costs...

[54anickel]

21. Drug prices said to rise 7% (Well, alrighty, then)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/06/news/economy/drugs_aarp.reut/index.htm

Report: Costs higher in 3Q, increases for the year more than tripled inflation during same period.
December 6, 2004: 8:05 AM EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prices for medicines most used by older Americans rose only modestly in the third quarter though drug price increases for the year ended September jumped more than 7 percent during that time, a newspaper report said Monday.

The annual cost rise was more than triple the rate of inflation during that time, the Wall Street Journal said, citing a study from the AARP, the nation's largest group representing the elderly.

Quarterly drug prices rose an average of 0.5 percent, compared with 1.8 percent in the year-ago period, according to the study expected to be released later Monday from the AARP.

Even so, in the year ending in September, drug prices jumped an average of 7.4 percent, more than three times the 2.3 percent rate of general inflation, the AARP said. :eyes: You suppose maybe the rate of general inflation is being UNDERSTATED!?!?!!!

more...

[UpInArms]

9. Treasury market halts 2 days of gains

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8F9BD8CF%2DBF2B%2D43EA%2D87B1%2DB5FB1A70CF0A%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - Treasurys dropped in early Tuesday trade, bringing an end to two days of gains, as the market looks to next week's expected interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

At 9:40 a.m. Eastern, the benchmark 10-year note was off 5/32 at 100 2/32. Its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) which moves in reverse of price, climbed to 4.24 percent.

The Treasury market disregarded the Labor Department's downward revision of its estimate of U.S. productivity in the third quarter.

"With this being a revision report, no market impact is expected," said Mat Johnson, an analyst with Think Equity Partners.

The government reported output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector climbed an annualized 1.8 percent in the July-September quarter, down from a 1.9 percent estimate issued a month ago. Read the full Economic Report.

U.S. monetary officials are widely expected to raise their target rate for overnight loans for a fifth time this year when the Federal Open Markets Committee convenes Dec. 14. Another 25 basis point hike would bring to 2.25 percent the current rate of 2 percent.

...more...

[54anickel]

11. Europe gold treads water, eyes new dollar low

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH48951_2004-12-07_10-45-15_L07221017

LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Gold was barely changed in Europe on Tuesday, taking little notice of further falls in the dollar, as traders remained cautious to deal amid expectations of heavy fund liquidation ahead of the year-end.

snip>

Many traders are bracing themselves for further selling from funds over the next two weeks, although further excessive dollar weakness would limit losses, they said.

"I think there will be some profit taking before now and the year end," one dealer said, adding he would not be surprised to see the gold price fall back to $445.

"Whilst the dollar continues to look bad, you can't sell it really. But the funds will want to lock in some of these profits they've notched up this year."

snip>

Gold had rallied much faster than could have been explained purely by the fall in the value of the dollar.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. Layoffs above 100,000 3 months in row

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA3AC0AB3%2DCEF6%2D4FF7%2D888B%2D2A433DED9476%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. corporations announced plans to eliminate 104,530 jobs in November, the third month in a row that planned layoffs exceeded 100,000, according to a tally kept by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Announced jobs cuts increased 2.6 percent in November from October's 101,840, and were up 5.1 percent from November 2003's 99,452, the firm said Tuesday.

It's the first time since early 2002 that layoffs were above 100,000 for three months in a row.

Through the first 11 months of 2004, announced layoffs totaled 930,690, down 19 percent year-to-date. It's likely that announced job cuts will exceed 1 million for a fourth straight year in 2004.

The 12-month average of announced job cuts rose to 85,309 from 84,886 in October.

"The biggest worry for the economy is that the large number of lower middle-class and middle-class Americans struggling to make it paycheck-to-paycheck will be short of discretionary income during the holiday shopping season," said John Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm.

...more...

10:00am 12/07/04 U.S. LAYOFFS ABOVE 100,000 FOR 3 MONTHS IN A ROW

10:00am 12/07/04 U.S. 12-MONTH AVERAGE LAYOFFS 85,309 VS. 84,886

10:00am 12/07/04 U.S. NOV. LAYOFFS UP 2.6% TO 104,530: CHALLENGER

[54anickel]

17. Interesting, I was on the phone this morning with the Assoc. Dean of

Computer Information Systems at our local tech college. He was telling me how enrollment in his division is WAY down (nearly 70%), has been dropping every year since 2000. All other divisions, except for health care are way down as well.

Part of the reason was that whole backlash of Y2K that I've discussed here before. Then there is the outsourcing and just the plain old "piss-poor" economy to blame as well.

Funny how the tech schools offering AAS degrees are way down, while the University I was at for a BS/BA in Business Admin was way up. Seems employers are requiring higher degrees, can have their pick of the crop in IT related fields due to all the lay-offs in that area, and are paying much less.

Yet wasn't Shrub's answer to all our woes simply re-training in a skilled trade at the local community college? Guess we are all destined to work "servicing" the well-to-do (cleaning, landscaping, fixing hummers, or constructing) or working in the health care industry. Of course with so many uninsured/unemployed people out there, you'd think there would soon be a glut in that industry as well. :shrug:

[54anickel]

22. JOBS-DATA DISTORTIONS FRUSTRATE EASY COMPARISONS

http://www.nypost.com/business/35862.htm

December 7, 2004 -- BACK in the 1970s, Western economists would chuckle at the way the Soviet Union compiled its economic statistics.
Without fail, for instance, the Kremlin would announce record annual wheat crops even though there were reports nightly on TV about severe food shortages in that country.

That was fraud.

Now consider the U.S., circa 1990 through 2004. I picked those years for a reason — so you won't think either political party is beyond gilding the economy.

There's no obvious fraud involved here.

But changes in the way Washington compiles economic statistics have certainly caused the figures to be misleading. They are numbers on steroids.

At the very least today's official evaluations of the economy may not be comparable to those in the past, rendering useless the historical trends that economists like to follow.

In fact, the chutzpah showed in some of these changes may be causing a disconnect between how Americans feel about the economy — gauged through things like consumer-confidence surveys — and what Washington says is happening.

more...I hate one sentence paragraphs!!!

[UpInArms]

25. glad to see someone else saying what we have known

Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 112,000 jobs were created in November. There's no arguing with the fact that 112,000 was a disappointing amount.

It was far below the 200,000 jobs that the experts had been predicting, and was made worse by a large reduction in October's growth. The 112,000 new jobs aren't even enough to keep up with the increasing population.

Worse, Washington could only come up with those 112,000 jobs by adding 54,000 positions it believes — but can't prove —were created by newly formed companies.

Cooking the books is making a rather nasty gruel.

[54anickel]

29. It's only fraud when somebody else does it! "Ah, the Soviets would be

jealous". That's got to be the best quote in the article. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

32. here's a very interesting site

regarding totalitarianism - started reading about it and couldn't sleep for about a week.

http://mars.acnet.wnec.edu/~grempel/courses/stalin/

here's the section I found most interesting:

http://mars.acnet.wnec.edu/~grempel/courses/stalin/lectures.html

[54anickel]

34. Thanks, though I'm not sure I'm ready to give up a week's sleep, these

days I'm having a bit of trouble in that area to begin with.

[54anickel]

13. Global Rebalancing at Work (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041206-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

A second risk comes on the currency and global financing fronts. While the dollar’s descent has generally conformed to a soft-landing trajectory, the possibility of a tougher endgame can hardly be ruled out. Our updated foreign exchange forecast now calls for a sharp depreciation of the dollar over the next six months. Relative to the dollar, we are now forecasting a 1.37 euro and a 95 yen by mid-2005 -- about 15% higher than our previous forecast and levels that could well put significant further downside pressure on externally-dependent European and Japanese economies. Moreover, given America’s record current account deficit, together with the huge dollar overweight in official foreign exchange reserve portfolios -- close to a 70% share of dollar-denominated assets versus America’s 30% share in world GDP -- the possibility of a flight out of dollars can hardly be ruled out.

snip>

Chinese currency policy is a critical wildcard. If China stands alone in resisting rebalancing, it runs a growing risk of being singled out as a scapegoat by the rest of the world. China bashing could intensify in response -- very reminiscent of the Japan bashing of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The big difference is that a wealthy and relatively closed Japanese economy was able to cope far better with such pressures than might be the case for an open and still relatively poor Chinese economy.

All this is symptomatic of what I have called the global blame game -- the tendency of rebalancing to pit nations and regions against each other in a fashion that could heighten trade frictions and protectionist risks. By pointing the finger at the proverbial “other guy,” the global village will have a hard time accepting the shared responsibility for the rebalancing of an unbalanced world.

The most serious downside risk to our new baseline forecast remains concentrated in the US, in my view -- where we have raised our 2005 growth estimate to 3.7% (from 3.3%) and look for further acceleration to 4.3% in 2006. The US, in my view, remains on a dangerous and reckless course -- consuming out of asset-based saving at a point in its demographic life-cycle when it should be building up income-based saving to fund the looming retirement of 77 million baby-boomers. Record lows in the personal saving rate and the current account deficit, to say nothing of record highs in household sector indebtedness, all speak of a US that is living dangerously beyond its means. Subsidized by unusually low interest rates, in large part underwritten by equally myopic foreign investors and governments, America has managed to keep the magic alive. But there’s nothing sustainable about that arrangement.

If America stays this course, the endgame will not be pretty. The day will come when US interest rates rise -- driven by either domestic or foreign developments. That would undoubtedly spark a painful unwinding of the Asset Economy -- all the more conceivable now that the US housing market is firmly in bubble territory (see my 2 December dispatch, “Bubble Day”). Equally worrisome is America’s anemic job creation and the related shortfall of organic income generation. November’s disappointing employment report was hardly an aberration; it marked the 31st month in this now 36-month old recovery, when job growth failed to live up to cyclical standards of the past. So much for the timeworn consensus view that the Great American Job Machine is finally on the mend. Like it or not, the United States remains mired in the mother of all jobless recoveries -- making the perils of excess consumption all the more worrisome.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. 10:40 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,547.21 +0.15 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,159.32 +8.07 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,190.82 +0.57 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% +0.008

NYSE Volume 315,552,000
Nasdaq Volume 704,034,0

10:30AM: Stocks rebound some but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings, as the indices remain mixed... Crude oil futures falling $0.58 to $42.40/bbl, following a modest gain yesterday, has lent some support for buyers... Technology has been the biggest gainer so far, with networking, semiconductor, software, and hardware all trading in the green... Healthcare, especially pharmaceutical, has also shown relative strength... Meanwhile, steel and airline stocks have extended yesterday's losses while biotech, energy, retail, homebuilding and financial also remain under pressure...NYSE Adv/Dec 1305/1502, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1454/1249

10:00AM: Major indices showing some resilience in the early going as investors continue to digest corporate merger news... Some of the buying interest has been sparked by IBM's (IBM 98.04 +0.37) announcement to create a new U.S. PC company with Lenovo, wherein Lenovo would pay as much as $2 bln for the majority share of IBM's PC business... Meanwhile, IBM would hold a minority stake, just small enough to exclude profit/losses and revenues from its income statement...NYSE Adv/Dec 1095/1560, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1314/1227

9:40AM: Equities open slightly higher as presaged by the futures market... Reports that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 61.65 -0.18) is close to acquiring Guidant (GDT 73.88 +5.13) for more than $24 bln, a deal that would strenghten JNJ's position in the multi-billion market for stents, has served as a source of buying interest... JNJ, which accounts for roughly 4.3% of the move price-weighted index, has contributed to the decline in the blue-chip average...

[JNelson6563]

18. Thanks UIA!

I know this isn't as easy as it looks. I've done it a couple of times. The first time I did pretty badly and the last time, a bit better. Still, harder and more time consuming than one might think. You rock.

On to the markets. Things aren't looking so hot. 10:51 and here's where we are:

Dow 10,530.06 -17.00 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,153.92 +2.67 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,188.92 -1.33 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.256% +0.016

With even more news to come today I am not hopeful for a rally. In fact, we might see some "manly profit-taking". I really believe things are going just as America's enemies would like. Thanks to Team Bush.

Will check back later. Thanks again for kicking things off and to both UIA and 54 for all the great info posted. I hope we see Ozy today.

Cheers fellow Marketeers! :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

26. Good Morning Julie!

You make me blush :D

:grouphug:

[54anickel]

19. Oil: The Dividing Line Of The New Cold War

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

You remember the “peace dividend”? Those were the savings alleged to accrue to the US government after the collapse of the Soviet Union. For the most part, that dividend has proven to be as real as Enron’s purported earnings. The US today spends about as much on its national defence as the next 20 countries combined. In fact, America is now spending as much on defense as it did during the height of the Cold War. Yet, in spite of this fact, many of the country’s military leaders tell us they don't have enough money and that the Pentagon needs to buy more modern and expensive weapons to assure the country’s national security and, of equal importance, safeguard a steady stream of oil supplies.

A military coming up against the constraints of a “mere” $500bn budget is occurring against a backdrop of mounting military activity in the Middle East and substantially higher oil prices. Even more alarming from America’s perspective, the country’s vaunted military strength has little control over the latter. As the world’s biggest producers of crude, the Gulf States and, increasingly, Russia, have the final say. In fact, instead of the traditional ideological warfare between capitalism and communism, oil may very well become the foundation for a renewed cold war.

Oil and Russia: two sides of the same coin? America’s increasing problems in Iraq are obscuring mounting signs of a renewed chill in the country’s relations with Russia. Much of this centres on the so-called “great game”, oil. In fact, virtually all of the recent political machinations in the region, including, not only the Iraq war, but also developments in Iran, and the Ukraine’s recently disputed Presidential election, can be best understood through the prism of oil pipeline politics.

True, the price of crude has recently fallen back from multi-decade highs, but it is undeniable that energy demand is still robust, notably in emerging economic giant China. On the supply side, investment in new refining capacity in industrial countries has been stagnant, and there is growing evidence of refining capacity limitations. Making matters worse for jittery oil traders is the growing suspicion that the major oil fields, particularly those in Saudi Arabia may be peaking (or coming close to it) and are being drawn down prematurely by secondary extraction techniques, like water injection. All of which makes Russia a key supply variable in this market, whilst China remains a huge new source of exogenous demand. These are new elements with which the US did not have to deal a mere decade ago when Russia was struggling in the throes of low oil prices, an imploding economy and outright kleptocracy, whilst China was still a net oil exporter.

The recent news of China’s purported interest in acquiring some major oil producing assets in Canada, (along with the attempted takeover of Canadian base metals giant, Noranda) have raised some eyebrows in the world press, some hinting that China's economic foreign policy may be on the verge of a new leap forward. A clue to the fact that such anticipation may have totally understated the case was last month's signing of a mega-gas deal between Beijing and Tehran worth $100 billion. Billed as the "deal of the century" by various commentators, this agreement is likely to increase by another $50 to $100 billion, bringing the total close to $200 billion, when a similar oil agreement, currently being negotiated, is inked not too far from now.

more...

[mmonk]

38. Yes. What really is going on

is a battle between hard power (US; military) and soft power (EU, Russia, China; economic). We could very much lose this as the world seems to have had enough of hegemony through war and the fact that you have to have enough soft power to have hard power. I'm not sure if we have enough since the hard power is draining our soft power.

[UpInArms]

20. some narrowing of the aperture - looking at local issues

Ephrata considers 10% tax hike; borough workers face layoffs

http://www.lancasteronline.com/pages/news/local/4/10229

LANCASTER COUNTY, PA - Regardless of whether Ephrata Borough Council goes ahead with several proposed layoffs, when the 2005 budget is adopted next week, it will mean higher costs for everyone.

With the budget expected to bring in $26 million in revenue while expending $27 million, council is mulling a 10 percent hike in real estate taxes.

For the borough, it would be the first tax hike in about eight years.

The borough's millage rate is 1.587. With the county's reassessment, that rate will drop to 1.368 mills. However, with the proposed 10 percent hike - the maximum allowed by law following reassessment - the rate will come back up to 1.504 mills.

That 10 percent, said the borough's financial officer Gail Bare during a borough council meeting Monday, will bring in about an extra $100,000 next year.

<snip>

However, it is the prospect of layoffs that has drawn large numbers of employees to the meetings held over the past several weeks. To help cut costs, the administration proposed cutting four jobs; one electrical lineman, one wastewater treatment worker and two public works employees. However, while the lineman's job seems to have been salvaged, the other three are far from assured they will have jobs come Jan. 1.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Dollar at a discount

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B47CD940B%2DDC1E%2D46F0%2D9415%2D73E240E1AC06%7D&siteid=mktw

BOULDER, Colo. (CBS.MW) -- Since 2002 the U.S. dollar has fallen 15 percent against a basket of currencies and shed 23 percent of its value against the euro.

<snip>

How has the U.S. dollar done against this basket? Well, since 2000 the U.S. dollar is lower by roughly 50 percent against the euro and it was just a week ago that the dollar hit its lowest level since 1995 against a majority of other foreign currency baskets. The dollar's slide has accelerated since President Bush's reelection, as many observers appear concerned about the President's massive tax cut plan and how tax cuts do not exactly give the impression we are trying to strengthen our currency. The actual time that the dollar began its most recent decline is March 2001

It also wasn't helpful to dollar-denominated assets when the Fed's Chairman Alan Greenspan mentioned in Germany that foreign investors would eventually resist sending more money to the U.S.; thus sending the dollar to even more 'oversold' levels. The term oversold is in quotations because obviously the market is always right and prices can continue to remain 'oversold' and get even more 'oversold.' However, we appear to be getting close to a near term bottom.

Making things harder on the dollar is Treasury Secretary John Snow not exactly embracing a strong dollar policy, and while he and President Bush would officially state that the administration supports a strong dollar many in the markets consider this as only face-saving rhetoric.

Of course, there is a very fine line between a weakening dollar and inflation that isn't easily contained and therefore could cause even lower levels. As we learned from many other countries, including ourselves, whenever there is concern over deflation -- defined as a decline in the general price level of goods and services that results in increased purchasing power of money -- the most likely remedy is to actually start hiking interest rates and allow for a slight bit of inflation. This appeared to be one reason for the Fed's change in stance regarding Federal Funds rate. The economy can most likely handle a little bit of inflation and it sure beats deflation spiraling out of control. Just think back to Japan.

...more...

[54anickel]

24. Crude Oil Falls on Expectations U.S. Fuel Supplies May Increase

The word "probably" is used 4 times in this article. I just found that rather amusing. :eyes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aOIDUBu6KIBc&refer=latin_america

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined for a fifth day in six on expectations warm weather helped U.S. supplies of heating fuels to increase last week.

U.S. stockpiles of distillates, including heating oil, probably rose 1.25 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 3, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News said. Heating demand in the Northeast, the top U.S. market for heating oil, will probably be a fifth less than normal for the next week. Crude imports have topped 10 million barrels a day for a record nine straight weeks.

``The market knows that there's plenty of oil still at sea,'' said Frederic Lasserre, head of commodities research at SG Economic Research in Paris. ``We haven't seen a major drop in stocks of heating oil because temperatures have been mild.''

snip>

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should raise its target-price band to reflect inflation and a weaker dollar, in which oil is priced, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, the group's secretary general, said in Jakarta today. The dollar's 8.3 percent drop against the euro since Oct. 1 has cut the value of oil exports in currencies of OPEC members, lowering revenue.

``The fact we had a sharp drop in prices is a very negative signal for OPEC,'' Lasserre said. ``They may decide to push the price band higher'' at a meeting in Cairo on Dec. 10 to discuss output and price targets, ``taking the weakness of the dollar as their main argument,'' he said.

more..

[UpInArms]

27. Fed heading for a pause

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB50FB326%2DC658%2D4828%2D91C9%2DCD08684979F3%7D&siteid=mktw

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (CBS.MW) -- No, not next week, but maybe in February the Federal Reserve will decide to pause and hold interest rates steady. The statement will tell the tale.

While the economy continues to expand, it's doing so unevenly. For every strong statistic that's released nowadays, there's one that's on the weak side.

The same is true of inflation. One day oil prices go up because of geopolitical tensions, the next day they go down because of unseasonably warm weather and large inventories.

And while the drooping dollar theoretically makes imports more expensive, consumers refuse to buy most goods unless they are on sale - as one major big box store and a giant auto company discovered to their dismay right after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Indeed, holiday sales in general appear to have gotten off to a slow start. The CBS MarketWatch consensus thinks November retail sales were basically flat (see Economic Forecast and Calendar). And sales appear to have fallen, so far in December.

No surprise why. Consumer confidence is down because job growth is tepid, at best. Not only was November's gain in payrolls far below expectations (see story), but average hourly earnings hardly budged and layoffs rose (see story).

This keeps most families behind the pace of inflation, forcing them to turn to debt to make up for lack of income growth. But higher interest rates are making it increasingly tougher to do this (see my previous column).

...more...

[54anickel]

36. Bwaaaahaahahaha!

[TrogL]

28. Loonie *breaks down crying*

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s

Last trade 0.82640 Change -0.00580 (-0.70%)

Settle 0.83220 Settle Time 16:56

Open 0.83370 Previous Close 0.83220

High 0.83830 Low 0.82470

Bid 0.82600 Ask 0.82610

Volume 12,023 Open Int. 71791

It's dropping like a rock. For the love of God, why?

:cry::cry::cry::cry:

[54anickel]

54. Hey TrogL, looks like a nice buying opportunity from where I sit...n/t

[UpInArms]

65. Canadian Dollar Falls as Bank Drops Pledge to Lift Target Rate

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aoqO9TsDnVvk&refer=canada

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar fell 1 percent after the Bank of Canada refrained from increasing its 2.5 percent target interest rate and dropped its pledge to lift the rate ``over time.'' Government bonds rose.

Since the bank started raising rates in September, the currency is more than 6 percent stronger, reaching a 12-year high two weeks ago. Today the bank said the current value of the Canadian dollar would have ``a dampening effect'' on demand for Canadian goods.

``The statement was probably as dovish as they possibly could have been'' about rates, said Steven Butler, senior currency trader in Toronto at Scotia Capital, a unit of Canada's third-biggest bank by assets. ``Obviously it got a few people concerned about the currency and some investors exited'' positions betting on a rise.

Against the U.S. dollar, the Canadian fell to 82.58 U.S. cents at 11:15 a.m. in Toronto, from 83.38 cents yesterday. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.2109. The prospect of higher interest rates previously spurred gains to 85.32 cents on Nov. 26, the highest since January 1992, as international investors snapped up the currency to buy Canadian debt securities.

...more...

Sorry TrogL :(

[54anickel]

68. Bummer...

snip>

Calyon, the investment-banking arm of Credit Agricole SA, today recommended investors buy the Australian and New Zealand dollars against Canada's. The firm expects the Canadian dollar to rise the least of the three currencies in a broad-based future U.S. dollar sell-off. The U.S. dollar dropped today against 10 of the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. It's down against all 16 currencies in the last three months.

Still sounds like a buying opportunity around the corner to me

snip>

The Canadian dollar may decline in the ``short run,'' but over time it will rise again as the U.S. dollar continues to drop, Scotia's Butler said. A lower U.S. dollar can help narrow the deficit in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of trade, which reached C$166.2 billion in the second quarter, the highest ever.

[UpInArms]

71. there they go again with that nonsense line

A lower U.S. dollar can help narrow the deficit in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of trade

yeah, and do I have some beachfront property to sale!

[54anickel]

76. It's the Mad Hatter routine, spewing all that nonsense. Just check out

the Bs in post 35 if you haven't seen it yet. It's all good, even if we have to loose jobs and hit the labor force, as long as we can continue to borrow at low rates - WHY NOT!

Why not indeed, you little @#%#&$#!!! Easy for pundits to say when it's not them in the unemployment statistics.

[54anickel]

31. States struggle to help poor pay winter heating bills

http://www.stateline.org/stateline/?pa=story&sa=showStoryInfo&id=417280

Temperatures are dropping and fuel prices are rising, causing states to worry that they won’t have enough money to help low-income residents keep their houses warm this winter.

Even before the onset of the harshest winter weather, energy assistance officials in a number of states already are reporting record numbers of people seeking help to pay for their heating bills. States complain that Congress’ increase in energy-assistance funds from $1.89 billion in 2004 to $2.18 billion in 2005 isn’t enough to meet needs.

An analysis by Richard Kogan at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which focuses on public policies that impact low-income people, found that despite extra federal money, states will have $164 million less than needed to cover an expected 24 percent leap in home heating costs. Adjusting for fuel prices, Kogan said that the 2005 level of funding is the lowest in five years.

In 2004, nearly 5 million households applied for heating assistance through the federally funded and state-administered Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). An initial sampling of states shows that requests for home heating aid could reach an all-time high in 2005, according to Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association in Washington, D.C.

For example, application requests are up 50 percent in Wisconsin from the same time last year, 22.4 percent in Montana, 33 percent in South Carolina, and 15 percent in Rhode Island, Wolfe said. Nationally, he said he expects the number of households needing assistance to increase 5 percent to 10 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Weak dollar threatens to upset equilibrium

The article is filled with info we have covered over and over again, so I thought I'd just snip some of the "best" quotes that might lend a peek into the Shrubco train of thought. :evilgrin:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/120704dnbusdollar.51115.html

snip>

The Bush administration says don't panic: White House advisers say global debts and exchange rates would sort out smoothly if the rest of the global economy would follow the growth path America is walking.

Economists with Germany's Deutsche Bank say recycling dollars from America to Asia and back again will keep rewarding both sides. Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber see it as a new Bretton Woods Agreement, an international system devised in 1944 to stabilize exchange rates that lasted for almost 30 years.

"Our story has been that the countries in Asia that have been lending us money will find it in their interest to continue to do so," Mr. Dooley said. "And the United States will still get enough foreign money to keep interest rates low and continue to use world savings for both investment and consumption."

snip>

Lowering the value of the dollar gives the United States an advantage over every other debtor. Other countries borrow dollars and have to pay interest in dollars, even if their own currencies collapse. But the United States can inflate away its debts.

For example: $100 borrowed from a Japanese bank in 2003 was worth 10,800 yen. The face value on the debt is still $100, but now it's worth only 10,300 yen. The Japanese bank has lost 500 yen because of dollar depreciation.

snip>

"Our job is to borrow and consume at ever-increasing rates. Everybody else – particularly the Chinese, the Japanese, the Koreans – saves and produces and exports, and provide us financing so we can go on buying."

"We get to live beyond our means, and they are happy to soak up unemployment," he said.

snip to the bestest of all!>

The system can endure, even if U.S. bonds aren't paying much, as long as the labor surplus lasts. And once the Chinese workers are absorbed, India will follow the same path, Mr. Dooley said.

U.S. consumers will benefit from cheaper goods, but the U.S. labor market will have to adjust – even if that means shrinking the workforce or even the number of U.S. automakers.

"If we can borrow what we need, and keep interest rates low, why not?" he asked.

[UpInArms]

78. these freaks of nature

should crawl back into their holes.

:argh:

they sound like the pied piper

The Bush administration says don't panic: White House advisers say global debts and exchange rates would sort out smoothly if the rest of the global economy would follow the growth path America is walking.

[54anickel]

37. Pilots union criticizes Delta executives' stock options

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/delta/1204/07delta.html

Delta Air Lines may have pulled out of its financial dive, but the leader of its pilots union says the carrier has gone off course by giving hefty stock options to top executives.

Union Chairman John Malone said the airline gets a grade of "unacceptable" for granting roughly 300,000 stock options to each of six top executives Nov. 17, about a week after pilots ratified the five-year concession deal.

All Delta pilots and other workers are also getting stock options under recent compensation changes, but the executives' awards are far larger.

"Not even a month after the ink was dry on our new agreement came the announcement of significant stock option grants for several corporate executives," Malone said in a note last week to union members.

"Are we to infer that shared commitment means labor sacrifices so management can be rewarded with richer options packages? Even the lowliest private can spot the problem here. The generals are dining while the troops are toiling."

more...

[DoBotherMe]

47. The avarice is heartbreaking

[54anickel]

39. DOLLAR DAYS (Blue light special hanging from Lady Liberty)

http://www.nypost.com/business/35882.htm

December 7, 2004 -- New York City tourism brass are expecting the weak dollar to attract a flood of 200,000 additional international tourists to the Big Apple in the final few months of the year — jamming the streets, restaurants and store aisles.
And almost every single one of them is looking for a bargain.

The forecast for stepped-up tourism follows the 12 percent drop in the dollar's value versus the euro in the last six months, which, combined with a much lower tax structure here and lower prices in general, has made shopping, dining and painting the town red one big half-off sale.

London lawyer Juliet Oliver took advantage of a friend's relocation to the Big Apple to fly over for a long weekend.

Oliver, 33, got all her Christmas shopping done and was able to pick up a few things for herself. The trip was a smashing success.

"I saved about half of what I would have spent at home," she said yesterday as she hustled to make her flight home.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Return Of The "Next Big Thing" In IPOs

http://www.forbes.com/home/strategies/2004/07/23/cx_sr_0723ipocolumn.html

NEW YORK - Volterra Semiconductor's planned initial public offering may be a throwback to "The Next Big Thing," the elusive dream of the 1990s tech bubble that drove many deals skyward beyond reason.

The technology company offers great promise but minimal earnings and a hefty deficit. The deal will be handled by one of Wall Street's top underwriters and the company has heavy-hitter venture capital (VC) backing.

This should sound familiar to anyone who tracked the IPO market during the boom--and will send some investors diving under their desks because the ghosts of once-popular IPOs such as VA Software (nasdaq: LNUX - news - people ), Theglobe.com (nasdaq: TGLO - news - people ) or Foundry Networks (nasdaq: FDRY - news - people ) live, even if the portfolios they once inhabited are croakers.

Look for Volterra to follow the familiar trajectory of a popular IPO: A strong opening, a solid first day followed by a climb, a quick leveling off and finally, a plunge.

Nevertheless, it has great potential and the stock is worth taking a second look at the right price. Don't blow this one off just because it has the characteristics of many mutt IPOs.

more...:eyes:

[54anickel]

41. Subprime loan market grows despite troubles

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2004-12-07-subprime-day-2-usat_x.htm

Subprime lending — higher-interest loans to consumers with impaired or non-existent credit histories — has been the fastest-growing part of the mortgage industry.

Subprime mortgage activity grew an average 25% a year from 1994 to 2003, outpacing the rate of growth for prime mortgages. The industry accounted for about $330 billion, or 9%, of U.S. mortgages in 2003, up from $35 billion a decade earlier. (Chart: Key players in subprime game)

The growth has attracted accolades and controversy. Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich has said subprime lenders helped push homeownership to record levels, making it possible for a growing number of minorities to buy homes. But he also raises questions about high delinquency rates.

And dozens of states have passed laws since 1999 to crack down on predatory lending — loans with high fees, excessive interest or other unaffordable provisions — clustered in the subprime sector.

Still, there's no doubt subprime lending is now a Main Street, mainstream business with sophisticated marketing that promises to deliver the American dream of homeownership, or lower the monthly burden of all-too-American consumer debt.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Japan threatens huge dollar sell-off

Huh, this is dated Sunday so may be outdated. I thought this has been down played in the US media. Then again, of course it would be.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5078556-110878,00.html

Japan is warning the White House that there will be 'enormous capital flight' from the dollar if the Bush administration maintains its laissez-faire approach to the mounting currency crisis.
Tokyo fears that Japan's strongest economic recovery in a decade could be derailed by the sudden appreciation in the yen against the greenback.

The criticism of President Bush's inaction, by a senior member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, will be taken as a veiled threat that Japan could start to sell off its multi-billion-dollar holdings of US Treasuries. 'The Japanese government is going to ask for a strong dollar policy; if it continues to fall, there would be enormous capital flight from the dollar,' said Kaoru Yosano, chairman of the LDP's policy council, adding that Japan would be calling on its fellow G7 governments to demand the US deal with the massive fiscal deficit that has helped to prompt the dollar's decline.

Yosano's remarks echoed a warning from a senior Japanese Ministry of Finance official that if the US does not push up interest rates to make the dollar more attractive, 'the one-way sentiment on the dollar will have a negative impact on the flow of capital into the US.' He added that Japan is urging its European counterparts to join a campaign of coordinated currency-market intervention, saying: 'If the dollar is depreciating, we should have coordinated action: that has already been communicated to my European counterparts.'

more...

[happyslug]

74. Bush Will Never Do it.

For the simple reason the only way Bush can reduce the pressure on the Dollar will be to reduce the Deficit. The only way to reduce the Deficit will be to either raise taxes OR reduce Spending. There is no way Bush can cut Social Security, so that leaves Defense as the only area to cut. Bush does not want to cut defense (Which means cutting back on the "Star War" Program AND the War on Iraq).

Thus the choices of George W. Bush, Choices he will NOT make. Bush is a gambling addict, he will continue to put his bets on "Winning" the war in Iraq till he has spent our last cent. Japan and Europe do not believe Bush will continue his present course. Japan and Europe both believe Bush is a rational person and as such will do one or all of the above before Bush would leave the Dollar drop drastically. I am under no such illusion and the sooner Japan and Europe accept that Bush will spend and spend, the sooner Japan and Europe will accept the costs of Stopping Bush from Spending and spending.

[54anickel]

79. I'd have to disagree with one thought - I think that

Japan, Europe and the rest of the world are all too aware of exactly what Bush is all about. Their verbalizations are aimed at the rest of America. He is afterall ONLY the president, we at one time did have a representative form of government. This is sort of a "last call", or "wake up" call if you will.
JMHO

[UpInArms]

85. you could smack most of these bushites

with a No. 10 Griswold skillet and never make a dent in their stupidity.

[54anickel]

87. Yep, it's time to test the party loyalty of the old conservative repubs -

are there any left out there?

For that matter are their any reps on either side that truely represent the "people" rather than the corporations and wealthy elite class? I've pretty much given up on finding many of them these days.

[happyslug]

88. I agree, but unless something happens in the next two weeks

Japan and Europe will have to live with Bush. Remember the "Electors" vote for the President in December and those votes are to be counted on January 6th, 2005. If you have a financial debacle between now and Mid-December, any state can send two sets of Electors to Congress, with congress deciding which electors are the "Correct" Electors.

Thus it is possible for Kerry to be Elected by the Electors by the simple ruling that Kerry won Ohio (or even Florida) and thus the election. Congress will ony vote to elect Kerry if the US has a massive melt down in its Economy between now and January 1. That is what Japan and Europe is aiming at, i.e. Japan and Europe will work with the US to handle the drop in the Dollar, but if the US does not work with Japan and Europe, than Europe and Japan will accelerate that decline and force the issue. The Time is NOW for Japan and Europe Not Net month and they know it. The only issue is are Japan and Europe willing to force the issue? I do not think so, the action of the central banks have all indicated that they will defend the Dollar even as they own people abandoned the Dollar.

Thus my point, it is to late for threats, action is needed. If Japan and Europe wants Bush gone, they have to do something NOW. Now SAY they will do something, but do something (I.e. sell Dollars and run the risk of Dollar going to Zero even if it hurts both Japan and Europe).

[54anickel]

45. The $10,000 martini

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/02/news/funny/expensive_martini.reut/index.htm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Drinkers might want to keep a clear head when ordering a martini at New York's historic Algonquin Hotel or they might pay $10,000 for that cold sip.

The landmark hotel, where famed wit Dorothy Parker and fellow literary lights at the Round Table imbibed, offers a $10,000 martini, complete with a loose diamond at the bottom.

No one has ordered one yet, in the martini's first week on the menu, but the hotel hopes some romantic soul will buy one any day now.

"We haven't had any buyers yet, but a lot of people are talking about it," said Anthony Melchiorri, the hotel's general manager, on Wednesday.

more...

[54anickel]

46. When Complex Systems Fail (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie120704.html

Sometimes, unfortunately, a complex system fails. Despite the best efforts to keep an evolving system together through coordinated management, and attempts to provide fail safe mechanisms along its evolutionary path, the system can weaken, degrade, and fail. Due to its enormity and multi-faceted nature, changes occur slowly and are perceived to evolve in an orderly manner. A strange public trust is instilled along the pathogenesis of breakdown, but official statements, encouragement, and assurance of constant tweaks to controls put aside public concern. The consequential impact from the potential failure can be beyond measure. Hyperbolic words such as "enormous" or "magnificent" or "staggering" really fall short in their description of the fallout damage. Experience through past crises, and reactions to them, tend to render the system more fragile and weakened, not more secure and efficient. It becomes more subject to stagnation and a pathetic state of near breakdown, which ironically comes to be accepted as the "normal" situation. Successive crises have indeed worsened over time. A worthwhile exercise might be to review a clinical treatise on the nature and evaluation of systemic failure.

The US Economy, stock & bond markets, futures contracts leveraged to them, and great derivative gears hold together the USDollar, the US Treasury Bonds, mortgages, major metals & energy commodities, and more. Many devices are designed to keep a limiting cap on prices and rates, like a huge rooftop atop a house or giant pyramid shrubs surrounding it. The entire system grows to become tremendously complex. It has evolved over several decades, and has responded to numerous unintended disturbances. Central banks provide the backdrop fail safe in a highly visible overt fashion. Derivatives provide the foundation underpinning in more secretive collusive fashion. System foundations date back to the post-Depression, post-WWII era. Latent growth and solidification took place until the gold anchor was abandoned, as the Bretton Woods Accord linking the USDollar to gold was defaulted in 1971. Most crises date back to that key event in their origins, a simple fact almost uniformly overlooked by a corrupted economic advisory function to this day. Shocks have been endured in many recent years. Small shocks occur almost on a monthly basis. The system continues, so the public regards the system as functionally capably. How many times must we hear "the system has not broken yet" ?

Black Monday 1987 delivered a serious shock to stocks after the USDollar fell as directed by the 1985 Plaza Accord. Their joint international accord plan was to reverse the dangerous situation whereby the US manufacturing base had seen significant abandonment in the early 1980 decade. The USDollar had appreciated from monetary colossal stimulus to lift the economy from its recessionary shackles. The inflation and its effects attracted too much foreign money, an unintended consequence. The age of currency aggravations and distortions had begun to wreak its havoc! Huge trade gaps had delivered capital flows to Asia. The entire US Economy over-invested in stocks, real estate, and military industrial equipment. In 1989, Japan stock and housing markets completely collapsed. The system continued to pour US exported inflation to Asia in response, essentially ignoring the Japanese experience almost completely. We reasoned that Asia was bigger than Japan, whose island powerhouse had gone crazy with speculation. "They got what they deserved" was the battle cry in rationalization. Hardly a competent analysis was directed toward true effective change. Instead, roughly $600 billion in Japanese capital hit the shores of the USA. We repeated Japanese errors, only with utter arrogance of superiority. The only thing superior is the size of our bubbles and the intricacy of its machinery.

The 1997 Asian Meltdown delivered a more serious worldwide shock to currencies and stocks. Mindlessly and with incredible bravado mixed with childlike naivete, most US so-called sophomoric experts (like the oaf Barton Biggs) regarded the Asian hardship as serving the US supply needs like to a "sweet spot." One year later, the Russian Default combined with the leveraged hedge fund LongTerm Capital Management failure to threaten seizure of the entire New York City megacenter bank system. So much for the sweet spot service from Asia. Back then my view of the meltdown was more of a financial virus encircling the globe, a direct systemic response to the complete yield to irrational exuberance in search of icon hero status. Yet these experts continue to ply their trade. The likes of Biggs, Galvin, Yarmeni, Garzarelli, and Abby Jo Cohen provide extremely high-priced guidance with no discernible track record of excellence.

more...

[54anickel]

48. 1:34 and OUCH!

Dow 10,480.41 -66.65 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,134.09 -17.16 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,181.97 -8.28 (-0.70%)
10-yr Bond 4.23% -0.01
30-yr Bond 4.898% -0.011
NYSE Volume 875,483,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,607,395,000

1:30PM : Selling intensifies as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all touch news lows on the session in the past half hour... The Nasdaq has fallen through an intraday support level at 2154/2153, which had held for about two hours... Meanwhile, S&P futures have also taken a noticeable turn lower... No specific reasons have been cited for the quick reversal, but at this juncture, it can be argued that the Nasdaq taking out the aforementioned support level precipitated profit taking activity in the tch sector that is weighing on the broader market... NYSE Adv/Dec 1094/2102, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1128/1917
1:00PM : Major indices turn slightly negative despite a pullback in oil prices... Crude oil futures have fallen more than 3% and trade below $42/bbl ($41.76/bbl -$1.22), the latter of which has failed to prompt broad-based buying... Concerns that tomorrow's crude oil inventories and ditillates figures could come in better than anticipated seems to have undercut the commodity ahead of tomorrow's weekly EIA report... NYSE Adv/Dec 1254/1897, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1384/1627

12:30PM : Equities remain range-bound as the indices cling to modest gains... The technology sector has been a standout group for most of the day - offsetting pronounced selling in energy - but semiconductor has actually lagged behind the overall group... Pressuring the sector has been two brokerage firm downgrades of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 24.27 -0.58).... Both Deutsche Securities and Wells Fargo Securities lowered their ratings on AMD, to Hold from Buy, citing valuation concerns following a recent rally sparked by market share gains at the expense of its rival Intel (INTC 23.96 -0.05)...SOX +0.21, NYSE Adv/Dec 1294/1839, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1387/1605

12:05PM : Major indices continue to run in place near the unchanged mark as sector-specific news, split industry leadership, weaker than expected economic data, and an overall bearish tone provide little enthusiasm for investors... Technology has shown the most resilience so far, with gains seen in networking, semiconductor and hardware... IBM (IBM) and Lenovo's plan to create a new U.S. PC company, along with analyst meetings from Cisco Systems (CSCO 20.21 +0.39), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.46 +0.13) and Intel (INTC 23.98 -0.03) have been contributing factors...

Rumors regarding a potential $24 bln merger between Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 61.08 -0.75) and Guidant (GDT 72.50 +3.75) have garnered some early buying interest within the healthcare group... Meanwhile, a recent pullback in crude oil futures to around $42.00/bbl (-$0.98) has helped airline turn positive while transportation sports modest gains... Energy, steel, and utility continue to show weakness along with financial and homebuilding...

The Department of Labor's revision to Q3 Productivity proved to be an initial disappointment to the market, dropping to 1.8% (consensus of 2.0%) versus 1.9% earlier, but the fact that output growth checked in at a stronger 4.2% and hours worked were revised 0.3% higher to 2.4% has helped limit the extent of selling...Profit taking in bonds following last week's rally has left the 10-year note off 6 ticks yielding 4.24%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1225/1865, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1389/1574

11:30AM : Market improves its stance some, lifting modestly above the unchanged mark... Today's economic reports have been relatively limited with October Consumer Credit at 15 ET and the revision to Q3 productivity released at 8:30 ET... The latter proved to be a bit of a disappointment, dropping to 1.8% from 1.9% in contrast to expectations of an upward revision to 2.0%... The 1.8% productivity rate represented the slowest rate in almost two years, although the report still contained some encouraging figures...

Output growth checked in at a stronger 4.2% and hours worked were revised 0.3% higher to 2.4%, and this has helped limit the extent of selling...NYSE Adv/Dec 1164/1870, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1386/1519

11:00AM : More of the same as the broader averages continue to trade in a narrow range... S&P 500 constituent Colgate-Palmolive (CL 49.06 +2.77), however, has found some renewed buying interest after announcing a restructuring plan that includes cutting its worldwide work force by about 12% (or roughly 4,400 jobs) and closing about one-third of its factories over the next four years... The stock has traded noticeably lower since late September after lowering its Q3 guidance...NYSE Adv/Dec 1242/1695, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1451/1362

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 979 (29%) 1080 (33%)
Declines 2214 (65%) 1978 (62%)
Unchanged 182 (5%) 129 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 277 (34%) 795 (51%)
Down Vol* 505 (63%) 724 (47%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (2%) 10 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 136 102
New Lo's 33 12

[54anickel]

49. Brazil, Chile Currencies Fall After Central Bank Sells Reais

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ahgFcM_S7tRc&refer=news_index

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's currency had its biggest decline in four months after the central bank sold reais for dollars for a second day. Chile's peso followed the decline.

Traders at brokerages Agora Senior and Pioneer Corretora de Cambio estimated the bank bought as much as $20 million. The central bank's currency sales signal it plans to keep the real from strengthening beyond 2.7 to the dollar to help spur exports, said Flavio Datz, a trader at Rio de Janeiro-based Agora Senior, Brazil's largest securities brokerage.

``The intervention is showing a floor for the market,'' Datz said in a telephone interview from Sao Paulo. ``The central bank is showing that it would take a lot of dollar inflows to strengthen the currency beyond 2.7 per dollar.''

The real tumbled 1 percent to 2.7437 reais per dollar at 10:46 a.m. New York time after the central bank sold reais at a maximum rate of 2.722. The real has surged 17 percent since May 20, cutting into profit margins at exporters, who have led the country's economic recovery.

Central bank President Henrique Meirelles said yesterday the bank is buying dollars to bolster its foreign reserves and isn't seeking to weaken its currency. A central bank spokeswoman declined to say how many reais the bank sold today.

more...

[54anickel]

50. Gold and currency reserves hit record high (Russia)

http://www.gateway2russia.com/st/art_259462.php

Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves increased by $9.4bn to $117.434bn in November 2004, the Central Bank reported. The reserves rose 52.7 percent in January-November 2004. In particular, reserves in foreign currency increased 11.7 percent to $96.832bn, and gold reserves rose $1bn to $3.731bn.
The reserves have been rising for more than 15 weeks already. In November, they increased by a total of $28.8bn. This is the quickest growth ever registered. Earlier, Senior Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev said the reserves had been expected to be $110bn to $120bn by the end of the year.

The reserves are rising quickly due to the Central Bank’s heavy purchases of dollars on the domestic market. The Central Bank was buying dollars not only on the MICEX but also directly from banks.

The gold and foreign currency reserves are highly liquid financial assets controlled by the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry of Russia. They consist of monetary gold, special drawing rights, the reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, and foreign currency

more...

[54anickel]

51. 2:34 and not much change

Dow 10,482.85 -64.21 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,133.17 -18.08 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,182.62 -7.63 (-0.64%)
10-yr Bond 4.226% -0.014
30-yr Bond 4.894% -0.015
NYSE Volume 1,070,986,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,936,987,000

2:30PM: The market still trades near its lows of the day, as a bearish bias remains firmly intact... Decliners on the NYSE hold a nearly 3 to 1 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 2 to 1 margin... At the Dow, 23 out of the 30 components have shown losses and kept the blue chip average trapped in negative territory... Caterpillar (CAT 91.43 +0.86) and Pfizer (PFE 27.38 +0.17), though, have managed to buck the trend and move higher... At 15:00 ET, the Fed is expected to report October Consumer Credit (consensus $6.0 bln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 909/2330, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 970/2119

2:00PM: The broader averages continue to trend lower as selling remains widespread across most areas... Hardest hit has been disk drive, which gained nearly 3% yesterday, and energy, as crude oil futures ($41.70/bbl -$1.28) have fallen to three-month lows... Materials, homebuilding, utility, biotech, and retail have also shown weakness... The only area showing any buoyancy has been pharmaceutical, which has clung to a modest +0.16% gain in part to a safe-haven play...NYSE Adv/Dec 844/2366, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1005/2070

[JNelson6563]

53. Not drastic but certainly negative

It seems the mood is pretty dark on the Street. I haven't tuned in but I can guess the cheerleaders are having a hard time with the happy-face routine today.

Was just coming in to post an update but the numbers are pretty much what you just posted 54. I'm sure they're working on how to spin this as I type.

Will chack back.

Julie

[54anickel]

55. WrapUp by Mike Hartman - SHOULD BE A DIFFICULT WEEK FOR STOCKS

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/monday.htm

Stock prices were under pressure most of the day, especially the big-cap shares in the Dow Industrial Index after four Dow components were hit with broker downgrades. Pfizer stumbled early when Merrill Lynch cut the shares from “buy” to “neutral,” saying the stock has only modest upside potential. Goldman Sachs downgraded Alcoa from “outperform” to “in-line” and lowered its earnings expectations for 2005 by 5% and for 2006 by 6%. Verizon Communications was cut from “buy” to “hold” and J.P. Morgan Securities cut Intel from “market outperform” to “market perform” citing market valuation as the reason. By the end of today’s trading session the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45 points to 10,547, the NASDAQ Composite held on for a three point gain to 2,151, and the S&P 500 shed one point to close at 1,190.

Stock prices were also under pressure with crude oil moving back above $43 a barrel due to increasing violence in Nigeria, production problems in Norway, and OPEC’s proposal of enforcing production quotas to raise the price since the recent decline from $55 a barrel. As the dollar declines in value, oil producing countries need to receive more of those same dollars just to break even. Since late October oil declined from $55 to $42, a drop of 24% in U.S. dollar terms, but in stronger currencies such as the euro and Swiss franc, the cost of crude has declined by closer to 30%. OPEC will meet on December 10th to discuss quotas and the need to receive more dollars per barrel as those same dollars decline in value. Looks to me like we have seen the low end of the range for crude in the near future…oil prices below $40 a barrel are now a part of history not to be seen again.

Dollar and Treasuries

The currency and bond markets were most affected today with comments coming from Japanese Vice Finance Minister Koichi Hosokawa. He said, “Recent yen gains don’t necessarily reflect fundamentals of economies” and went on to say, “We will act aggressively on its rapid moves in a timely manner.” Treasuries and the dollar finished the day fractionally higher with the media spin saying the dollar and bonds are higher because of nothing more than SPECULATION Japan may move to intervene. Bonds caught a bid and moved higher because it is further speculated that after the Bank of Japan sells yen for dollars, they will then use the dollars to buy our Treasury debt. The line of reasoning seems pretty thin to me, especially since the Fed is holding the line for raising interest rates. If nothing else, today’s spin with the comments from Tokyo was enough to hold the gains in Treasuries from the big move up on Friday. Just when it looked like bond prices were breaking down late last week, we got that nasty employment report with about half the expected job creation. Nice rescue for bond prices.

It is widely expected the Fed will raise the target for the Fed Funds Rate another 25 basis points when they meet again on December 14th. Traders are saying the yield on the two-year note is too low with the expected increases coming from the Fed, but investors continue piling into Treasuries. Normally when things get crowded on the short end of the Treasury curve it is a flight to safety because the smart money sees problems ahead. The refusal of bond prices going lower is a clear sign to me that all is not well and to proceed with caution. Today’s broker downgrades in the stock market could be sending the signal that the near-term correction for stocks will happen this week as the money moves into Treasuries. This set-up could also be needed to create more demand for Treasuries this week with the U.S. Treasury Department auctioning $15 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday and $9 billion of 10-year notes on Thursday. The way things are shaping up, it looks like stocks will have some competition for investment capital with the need for more Treasury funding.

more...

[54anickel]

57. COMEX gold finishes softer, stuck in a range

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;AQ2VHFE212QJICRBAEOCFEY?type=goldMktRpt

NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures closed lower on Tuesday on profit-taking as a recent precious metals rally seemed to dry up this week amid a lack of interest, despite fresh record lows in the dollar, traders said.

Gold has been consolidating since it hit a 16-year high of $458.70 in February futures on Thursday, in a bull move beefed up by nearly daily new highs in the euro against the dollar.

snip>

Traders said gold appeared to be caught in a near-term trading band from $450 to $455, marked on one end by flight-to-safety buying and on the other by profit-taking and trade selling at current strong market prices.

The dollar touched a record low against the euro at $1.3470 early on Tuesday, after a warning by European officials on the euro's rise fell on deaf ears, with investors determined to dump the U.S. currency. The euro last fetched $1.3422.

The dollar also reached a 12-year low versus sterling beyond $1.95 .

more...

[UpInArms]

58. 3:20 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,460.68 -86.38 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,124.91 -26.34 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,180.23 -10.02 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226% -0.014

NYSE Volume 1,237,718,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,226,055,000

3:05PM: Sellers remain an active bunch as ongoing consolidation keeps the indices under water... Profit taking within technology, materials and energy remains the most prolific as all three have been some of the best performing sectors in 2004... Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve just reported an October Consumer Credit reading of 7.7 bln, which came in much higher than the $6.0 bln economists had anticipated, and an adjusted figure for last month of $13.6 bln versus a prior reading of $9.8 bln...

But while the lagging data is volatile and remains subject to massive revisions, investors have again paid little attention to the report as the market has barely budged...NYSE Adv/Dec 900/2379, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1012/2103

2:30PM: The market still trades near its lows of the day, as a bearish bias remains firmly intact... Decliners on the NYSE hold a nearly 3 to 1 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 2 to 1 margin... At the Dow, 23 out of the 30 components have shown losses and kept the blue chip average trapped in negative territory... Caterpillar (CAT 91.43 +0.86) and Pfizer (PFE 27.38 +0.17), though, have managed to buck the trend and move higher... At 15:00 ET, the Fed is expected to report October Consumer Credit (consensus $6.0 bln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 909/2330, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 970/2119

Last trade 81.23 Change -0.05 (-0.06%)

Settle 81.28 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.20 Previous Close 81.28

High 81.43 Low 80.92

Last tick: 2004-12-07 14:48:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[JNelson6563]

61. From bad to worse I see

Zowie. Ugly picture. But hey, as long as we have equity to cash out and credit left on the cards, let's live it up! Ugh.

Julie

[UpInArms]

63. 3:44 EST and getting bloodier

Dow 10,449.22 -97.84 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 2,118.78 -32.47 (-1.51%)
S&P 500 1,178.42 -11.83 (-0.99%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226% -0.014

NYSE Volume 1,363,706,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,430,347,000

3:30PM: Still little conviction on the part of buyers in the past half hour, as the major averages continue to chalk up losses... The only economic news of note tomorrow will be the EIA's weekly oil inventories figures, which, as evidenced by today's 3.4% sell off in crude oil futures ($41.46/bbl -$1.52), could come in better than expected... The only S&P 500 constituent of note - AutoZone (AZO 84.43 -0.60) - will be out with Q1 results tomorrow before the open... Analysts expect the specialty retailer to post earnings of $1.45 per share on revenues of $1.3 bln...

DreamWorks Animation (DWA 39.55 -2.40), which went public on October 28, is also expected to report quarterly results... NYSE Adv/Dec 847/2436, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 905/2236

[UpInArms]

64. no more food export surplus - thanks to the BFEE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1051836&mesg_id=1051836&page=

http://www.pjstar.com/stories/120704/ALA_B4UEM1VT.027.shtml

White House can't explain lurking trade imbalance

For nearly two years, U.S. farmers and ranchers watched as the second shoe grew bigger and bigger.

On Nov. 22, it officially dropped. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service estimates released that day, 2005 will be the first year in nearly 50 that America will not turn an agricultural trade surplus.

The dubious milestone was met with odd silence at USDA. Odd because throughout the fall presidential campaign, Secretary of Agriculture Ann Veneman talked herself hoarse each time some farm community in a swing state dedicated a new, USDA-sponsored street light.

Now, as America is about to become a net food importer for the first time in generations, Veneman has no explanation of how Bush administration economic and trade policies have taken American agriculture from a $13.6 billion trade surplus in 2001 to a flat line in four short years.

Who can blame her? Would you want to be the first secretary of the last 11 to report such death-in-the-family news?

...more bad news in there...

[54anickel]

66. Wasn't this already reported about a month ago? I seem to remember seeing

a post with a nice little chart showing the import/export lines crossing over. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

67. yeah, it probably was

but I just wanted to make certain everyone knew how that "weaker" dollar was going to help our exports (since we don't have any).

:evilgrin:

[54anickel]

69. You nasty, nasty, nasty!!! Hey, we still export damned good jobs,

and weapons to be used against us at a future date.

[hatrack]

72. And yet commodity exports have been basically sucking of late

Cheap dollars notwithstanding.

From the KC Star, 3 December 2004

EDIT

"Wheat futures fell to 18-month lows as well as contract lows amid fund selling, weak export news and adequate global wheat stocks.

The USDA reported sales last week for wheat at 366,700 metric tons, which was 24 percent below the previous week and 32 percent below the prior four-week average. Trade estimates were for 300,000 to 450,000 metric tons of wheat.

EDIT

The government said corn export sales were 585,000 metric tons last week, which was way below government estimates for 800,000 to 1 million metric tons.

EDIT

Soybean futures said net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled 407,100 tons. Trade estimates caled for 650,000 to 850,000 tons. Soybeans saw continued pressure from Asian soybean rust and the expectation for a record large U.S. crop in 2005."

EDIT

No link, will post when I have time.

[UpInArms]

70. WSJ U.S. rating risk report adds to dollar woes

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7014813

LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The notion that rating agencies may one day downgrade the U.S. government's triple-A bond rating triggered financial market discussion on Tuesday about the previously unthinkable and added more pressure to the dollar.

An article in the Wall Street Journal Europe said that analysts and investors had begun to "question the unquestionable" amid worries about budget and trade deficits and the weak dollar.

The article made no suggestion that any downgrade was actually in the works from the big three ratings agencies -- Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch.

But it cited a research note by a small agency, Egan-Jones Ratings, saying the United States should have just a double-A rating, and quoted Steven Hess, Moody's senior credit officer, saying "at some date" the triple-A rating could be in jeopardy if authorities did not act to improve U.S. finances.

The mere fact that the U.S. finances have deteriorated to the point where such an issue could be floated raised eyebrows.

...more...

[54anickel]

73. This is one of those days where you just can't get the full effect of

the US$ drop from the dollar index at INO where they compare the dollar to....well the dollar.
You'd think that a rumor such as a rating cut would have sent the buck into a tailspin. Then again, there was that bit of intervention from South of the border....:shrug:

[UpInArms]

75. Foreign Exchange setting new records

4:32pm 12/07/04 CME: 625,912 FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTRACTS TRADED MONDAY

4:30pm 12/07/04 CME SETS NEW VOLUME RECORD FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADE

[54anickel]

80. THIS is going to get interesting...n/t

[UpInArms]

83. even in devalued dollars, that's a lot of bucks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38328.6911614699-829092076&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CME sets new daily record for foreign exchange trade By Kate Gibson
CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Monday set a new volume trading record for total foreign exchange futures contracts, with 625,915 contracts exchanging hands, the CME said Tuesday. The contracts traded are worth $72.1 billion in notional value, the exchange said.

[54anickel]

84. GACK!!! So just who are the happy "buyers" in this game anyway?

Novelty Fish Wrap companies?

[UpInArms]

77. here come some more happy jobless people

Furniture Brands sees Q4 earns at lower end of outlook (FBN) By Carla Mozee
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Furniture Brands International (FBN) said after the bell Tuesday that it sees fourth-quarter earnings coming in at the lower end of its previously announced outlook because of softer orders and activitity at its upper-end and middle-priced companies. The company said it sees earnings of 36 cents to 38 cents a share. It also said it plans to temporarily shut some of its domestic manufacturing facilities.

4:24pm 12/07/04 FURNITURE BRANDS TO TEMPORARILY SHUT SOME FACILITIES

4:21pm 12/07/04 FURNITURE BRANDS SEES Q4 EPS AT LOWER END OF OUTLOOK

[54anickel]

82. Now just how the hell are we supposed to "buy American" if they keep

shutting down plants and laying people off? :crazy:

[UpInArms]

81. closing numbers and blather and the buck

Dow 10,440.58 -106.48 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,114.65 -36.60 (-1.70%)
S&P 500 1,177.07 -13.18 (-1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226% -0.014
NYSE Volume 1,529,995,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,671,522,000

The market opened with slight losses and only deteriorated throughout the day as the indices fell through a series of support levels and inspired broad-based profit-taking from November's hefty gains... Even a 3.5% fall in the price of crude oil ($41.46/bbl -$1.52) to three-month lows was not enough to turn the tide of trading as investors progressively sold into recent strength... Just about every industry group posted large losses, with technology, basic material, and energy falling the most... Cheaper oil took the steam out of energy, which has enjoyed gains in excess of 20% in 2004... Technology, which hovered in positive territory early on after IBM's (IBM 96.20 -1.47) announced plans to sell the majority of its PC business to Lenovo, also succumbed to selling pressure... A 3.2% decline in storage and 2.3% reversal in hardware all but erased yesterday's gains of (2.9%) and 1.0%, respectively... Biotech, materials, homebuilding, healthcare, financial, and retail also closed lower... There were two pieces of economic data out, but neither provided much of an influence for either buyers or sellers... The Department of Labor reported a revision to Q3 Productivity of 1.8%, which came in both below analysts' expectations of 2.0% and a prior reading of 1.9%... Output growth, however, checked in at a stronger 4.2% and hours worked were revised higher to 2.4%, and that helped mitigate the disappointment... The Federal Reserve also reported an October Consumer Credit reading of $7.7 bln, which was much higher than the $6.0 bln economists had anticipated... The few sectors to show relative strength throughout the day included medical device following reports of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ 60.52 -1.31) talks to acquire Guidant (GDT 72.42 +3.67) for $24 bln... Personal product also bucked the trend owing to Colgate-Palmolive's (CL 50.36 +4.07) restructuring announcement... ..XOI -1.8%. ..BTK -2.4%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 772/2547. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 794/2367.

Last trade 81.25 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

Settle 81.24 Settle Time 15:38

Open 81.20 Previous Close 81.28

High 81.43 Low 80.92

Last tick: 2004-12-07 16:14:28 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[JNelson6563]

86. Blood everywhere.

However will this be spun as a possitive? Dollar down, stocks down, but thank bob gays can't marry! *sigh*

Catch you Marketeers tomorrow. :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

89. America’s Image as a “Rogue Nation?” (Ewwww, had to post this one!)

http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/printStoryId.aspx?StoryId=4281

Much has been made of the large U.S. budget and trade deficits in explaining the U.S. dollar’s recent weakness. But is the sinking U.S. dollar mostly a reflection of global dissatisfaction with recent U.S. foreign policy? Joseph Quinlan — chief market strategist at Banc of America — argues that the dollar will continue to drop until U.S. legitimacy is restored.

The message from the foreign exchange markets since November 3, 2004, seems to be simply this: The free ride for the “rogue nation” is over.

The world votes against the U.S. dollar

No more guns and butter, or wads of foreign cash for a nation deeply enmeshed in the Middle East, heavily indebted at home — and seemingly disengaged (some might say) from the rest of the world.

The sinking dollar could be a sign that the world is no longer willing to underwrite the designs of U.S. foreign policy. To a large degree, a rebound in the U.S. dollar could hinge on a revamped U.S. foreign policy.


The day after the presidential election, many foreigners cast their own ballot by selling the U.S. dollar — a sell-off that has only gathered momentum in the month since Mr. Bush was reelected.

more...