Buildings to go up like never before (Real estate development boon)

[Tab]

Residential and commercial development in the next quarter-century will eclipse anything seen in previous generations as the nation moves to accommodate rapid population growth, according to a Brookings Institution report Monday.

About half the homes, office buildings, stores and factories that will be needed by 2030 don't exist today, says Arthur C. Nelson, author of the report for the think tank in Washington, D.C.

The U.S. population is expected to increase 33% to 376 million by 2030, according to Nelson's analysis. That's 94 million more people than in 2000.

To serve that population, almost 60 million housing units will have to be built. About 20 million of these units will replace destroyed or aging homes. In addition, half of the largest metropolitan areas will have to add as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed in 2000, the report says.

The projections are startling for a nation already coping with sprawl, traffic congestion and the strains they put on the environment. Phenomenal growth in the South and West has turned deserts and soybean fields into cities. The report projects that these regions, which face water limitations, will experience the greatest surge in construction in the next 25 years.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&e=9&u=/usatoday/20041213/ts_usatoday/buildingstogouplikeneverbefore

[Maple]

1. With all the changes

in the world economic system, factories and office buildings won't be needed.

Office work, and much retail selling will be done online.

Factories are disappearing now, and have done so for some time.

[Us vs Them]

2. Great. More corporate architecture to look forward to.

Track homes. Characterless apartment complexes. 'Business Parks.'

[Gregorian]

3. This is so disgusting.

I hate nothing more than "growth". It has ruined this country. I move next week from my home, because the city has spilled over into what was once a magnificent place. But I already know that the next place will turn to shit soon as well. When will people stop breeding? When will people realize that population IS the biggest problem we have. It IS the source of all problems we face today. Very few people are aware of the fact that the population is driving these problems. Most people can only focus on the problems themselves, or not even know. Every house is that much less forest. And that much more global warming, in order to manufacture everything that comprises it.

I've made a lot of money in real estate because of the growth. None of it on purpose. And I'd have gladly made nothing, just to live in a place that wasn't doomed to turn into a McDonald's laden, car plagued hellhole. But every child needs a house when it grows up. So goodbye forests, and goodbye open spaces. I'm sick of this. I'm sick of it because I can't even run from it. It's everywhere.

[Barrett808]

7. "Growth" doesn't bother me as much as "sprawl" n/t

[CrispyQ]

8. Six billion miracles is enough.

I saw that on a bumper sticker & want one for my car. I agree completely with you. Though we are very good at limiting the population of other species, our refusal to limit on our own population will be our demise.

Recently, there was an astounding LTTE in a local paper. This woman said she didn't understand all the brouhaha about over population. She claimed there is plenty of room for human growth. Just look at Wyoming, she said, it's practically vacant! I was stunned that she only considered the space that humans occupy. No thought whatsoever to the idea of the amount of farmland needed to grow food, not to mention the idea of preserving some of the natural world for the sake of the natural world! When the natural world is gone & all fields & valleys are replaced with shopping plazas & housing developments & the planet has lost it's incredible wealth of diversity, it would be interesting to know what the future generations will think of us as they look back on our wasteful, selfish lifestyles.

[Bono71]

15. Future generations will be happy we had them, because they

wouldn't be alive otherwise.

[tabasco]

42. Future generatons would still exist if we had ZPG.

Population growth is not necessary or good at this point. If you are ignorant about how population growth is affecting our ecosphere, please get educated. Maybe consider the quality of life in China, and why they have become so forceful in reducing population growth.

The Scandinavian nations seems quite happy at or near ZPG.

Your shallow comments reek of self-interest.

[Gregorian]

21. Amazing comments below. Just amazing.

It's as though one needs to be an engineer in order to understand the situation. It's obvious those who posted below don't have a fucking clue. I normally try to not express myself when this subject arises, due to the venom most people are filled with.

[leesa]

45. Food comes from the grocery store, silly!

[Bono71]

11. Ruined this country? Hello, it's a 2-way street...this type of

development will provide jobs...(i thought we liked those?)

If you don't like the way it looks, buy some land and build something you like...

[piece sine]

17. please re-read your comments

you sound like the the most conservative reactionary I've ever come across. You are 100% certified NOT LIBERAL!!! I read what you write and it's nothing but hate. For you, there's nothing left to live for, so please do the most logical thing and............. end it!

[Gregorian]

22. Don't listen to me. Listen to your children.

When they come whining to you about how horrible their world is, then you'll know what the truth is. Venom- that's what I feel from you. Why, I ask? Did I say something that threatened you? Let me guess, you have kids. Why else would what I said offend you? I am observant, and I know what I have seen is due to population. The ruination of much of the world's farmland is due to population. And I am unhappy about it. If it bothers me, and I count, then it is doing harm. And I am far from alone. But it appears that people like you don't think I count. Or you are guilty for having had kids, now that you know the damage overpopulation is doing to the entire planet.
And I do own land. Lots of it. I do have gorgeous properties. I have a good life. I am retired. I saw it when there were dairies in the San Francisco area. In fact, I am not selfish. I am concerned for the people who will live after I am gone. I have it good, but am offended by people who DON'T CARE.

Edit- You are completely wrong about the liberal comment. Liberals acknowledge limits. Conservatives are the idiots who believe in unbridled growth. People cannot simply do whatever the hell they want. Look at what is happening due to Bush- the forests are being raped. I know, I see it right in my own town.

[Tab]

52. I don't disagree

I live in New England. My last house had 8 acres (for those in suburbia, land is cheaper here, and short of being right "in town" most places have got some land to them). My current house has just under 2 acres, but everything around has a little bit of space for some actual woods and green leaves and animals and when it's not winter I can hear the ducks in the river in the morning.

Yet I'm a relatively short drive from a major highway, I can get to regular shopping in about 15 minutes, some extendedly decent shopping in about 35 mins more.

I've spent plenty of time driving around Boston, San Jose, Newark, and so forth, and I wouldn't trade this for any of those. I don't mind commuting there occasionally, but to live there on a daily basis? No, thanks, and particularly not with children. At some point I might move closer to a nice but small city, but not at this point in my life. Even if I move somewhere else, it'll still have to be a place with a little bit of space and privacy and scenery. Some places are so built up, and I remember where there was a dirt road down a particular place, and now you can barely even imagine where it might have been.

If you grew up in a city, it might be hard to adjust to a more relaxed freer life, but if you grow up in the country you learn to enjoy these pleasures, and then if you want to do stuff in the city you can, but you can take those stresses as you choose, not because you have to on a daily basis.

One day, economic necessity or some event or situation may force me to do something different, but for now I'll take this. I don't need my neighbors to be three miles away, but I don't need them four feet from my window either.

[AngryAmish]

23. If people are the problem why not commit suicide?

Think globally, act locally.

[found object]

49. stupid response

.

[AngryAmish]

51. How so?

[found object]

48. you are correct

This harsh reality is what most humans tend to ignore as we approach the limitations of this planet's finite resources.
What to do about it is the question MORE people should be asking themselves and their local government before this problem becomes exponential. Unfortunately, vision seems to be in short supply these days.

[alarimer]

50. I agree with you

Here, the evil greedt real estate assholes are busy destroying the last undeveloped barrier island in the US. They want the coast of Texas to look just like Florida. I hate it. I am hesitant to say this but I hope a hurricane comes and blows it all down; it is what these assholes deserve. Part of the problem is the federal flood insurane program, allowing people to build in areas prone to flooding and hurricanes. They couldn't get mortgages without federal flood insurance but we, the taxpayers, get to help pay for these monstrosities to be rebuilt in these sensitive areas.

[hatrack]

4. And there will always be enough wood, and enough water, and enough money .

and enough loans, and enough concrete and enough glass and enough people and enough tenants and enough electricity and enough steel and enough glass and enough natural gas and enough copper and enough computer chips.

Most of all, there will always be enough demand. Yes, every house and every office floor will be filled to capacity because demand will never, ever stop for any reason.

Gosh, can't wait for this exciting future to arrive! :puke:

[grilled onions]

5. Housing for whom?

Just how much of the "residential" housing planned will be for low to moderate income families and how many for the "golf course communities"?? For every one of those communities that is built surounding a golf course or private aurport hundreds of rental units could be built. For all those fancy five bedroom homes with hot tub and theatre rooms we could build many basic units so more of the lower income families could actually get a home in their lifetime!

[Skidmore]

10. The real estate market is being tapped to prop up our

failing economy. New builds look good on paper. All those fancy new homes are sold at prices that no family struggling to tread water now can afford. In this area in Iowa, a reasonable house is now approaching $250k. Most people make salaries in the $15-25K range. Who's going to buy these monstrosities?

[Bono71]

12. They are building affordable apartment buildings...the problem with

multi-family is, it is tough to get zoned because of environmental laws (multifamily has high density, high traffic, so developers run into the "not in my backyard" phenomenon coupled with "it will destroy to many ecosystems)...makes cost high to develop, which of course is passed right on to the tenants.

[blindpig]

19. I see!

It is the environmentalist and elitist that are responsible for sprawl. Thank you Bill Oliely.

[kitkatrose]

26. Ok, I see you're in DC. So am I.

Where is this affordable housing you speak of? The only thing I can think of is the condos that supposedly start at $200 monthly that someone is building right behind my dorm, close to the Cardozo stop. I, personally think that price is a crock of shit, but who knows. The lowest efficiency/1 bedroom I've seen is at $600-700. The rest is sky high. I don't know about the outlying areas, although I've heard that Takoma park is affordable. The only thing being put up in DC is luxury apts, not affordable housing.

And I really appreciate that comment about environmental laws being the cause of high prices. Real nice.

[Bono71]

28. DC is the capital of rent control and subsidized housing...just go to

the code...

As far as environmental "law" being the cause of high prices, I never said it was...it is **a** cause, however...

It is darn near impossible in some parts of Virginia, Maryland and DC to get multifamily zoned. One big problem is that homeowners tend to hate multifamily because it can bring down property values. They (the homeowners and their elected officials) hide behind environmental regulation to keep multifamily out of their backyard.

This of course, limits supply. Smaller supply equals higher prices.

Another problem for multifamily is the low interest rates...the low rates are good for developers, but terrible for owners and management companies...there are fewer tenants in times like these because many can now afford to buy (since rates are low).

Just check the market and see how many outfits are offering concessions on rent...this was never the case 10 years ago...

[kitkatrose]

30. Honestly, I haven't looked since earlier this year.

I don't need it for another couple of years, but I'm trying to look for trends and stuff. The rent concessions I've seen are on luxury apts, w/ $2000 rent--something I still can't afford.

Yeah, I know something about problems getting multifamily zoned. The issus against it sound like a whole bunch of -isms all wrapped together. Although since you're in real estate, maybe you can provide a clue why multifamilies tend to bring down property values. Is it psycological or is there a real reason for it?

[Bono71]

33. It is because people think (whether true or not) that the crime rate

goes up when multifamily arrives...

As far as rent goes, couple things...

look in the classifieds...think about a roomate, and think about moving away from the city to bolston or even Loudon county (and commute in).

[leesa]

46. Oh, those horrible environmental laws! Are you lost ?

[blindpig]

6. wishful thinking

with all of the resource constraints looming this is almost science fiction. Sweetjesus I hate real estate developers.

[Bono71]

14. Hate us? Without us, where would you live...a cardboard box?

[blindpig]

18. as though developers actually do anything

other than putting together deals that rape the land, devastate watersheds and lay waste to biodiversity.

Please do not claim that you are fulfilling a demand of the market, that is a capitalist fantasy I long ago dismissed. People will buy what is produced. Housing could be provided in a more ecologically sensitive manner, but it probably wouldn't be as profitable.

On the local level there is nothing more ugly and rapacious than the Unholy Trinity of developers/lawyers/politicians.

You may well be ok, I'll apologize in advance, but scum suckers like Del Webb, responsible for the devastation of thousands of acres of good habitat in the southwest and southeast, I piss down their throats.

[Bono71]

24. Again, unless you're going to mandate that people stop

procreating (or emigrating to the US) I suggest you think about what developers do, without this knee-jerk-reactionary-sloganeering. The article points out that population growth will mean more houses and office buildings will be needed. Deal with it.

The fact of the matter is this: smart growth works for everyone.

Are some developers unscrupulous---of course they are.

Are developers providing services that benefit the economy and others? Duh.

[Laughing Mirror]

29. Where is the affordable housing in DC?

An earlier poster asked you this question. You didn't answer, so I ask it again, because I would like to know too.

Are you a developer? What do you think of the spate of local arson, particularly out in Charles County?

[Bono71]

31. The arson is terrible for many reasons...I thought I answered the

question about affordable housing...

If you're looking for an actual property that is affordable, check Lorton, Virginia. Recently, (within the last 3 years) about 2500 homes were developed (I have personal knowledge of how the negotiations with the county went). On of the contingencies of the development was for low income multifamily to be built right next to the homes... You can't make more than $35,000 to live in the complex...this is just one example of how it works...The complex I believe is on Lorton Road, about half a mile from the Lorton I-95 exit...I can't remember the name, but if you really want it I can find it...it's about .1 miles from the VRE, plus the county provides bussing.

As for DC, the city code provides stringent limits on rent (called rent control). There are plenty of places that are affordable...not sure what else to write...

[Laughing Mirror]

32. Where is the new affordable housing being built in the District

I'm not talking about Section 8 or subsidized housing for the elderly. I'm talking about new construction in DC. I'm not talking about Lorton. I'm talking about DC, inside the District line, my hometown, where I was born and grew up and went to school.

If I make $25,000 a year and want my own place in a nice new building in town, where do I go?

[Bono71]

34. "A nice new building downtown"

I'm not sure I could afford that...

[Laughing Mirror]

35. I said a nice new building in town

I did not say downtown. I know that's lost to gentrification.

[Bono71]

36. Well, if you're not talking about section 8,

I'm not sure there is a market for **new** B and C properties anywhere in the district. I would imagine that smaller rents will be had at older buildings...nature of the beast.

I should also write, that I have done zero development in the district itself. It is a game for people who are smarter (and more risk tolerant) than I am.

[Laughing Mirror]

39. So affordable apartment buildings are not being built then

That's what I thought.

[djack23]

53. Housing in DC for 25K a year

The only thing you might be able to afford is an effeciency or 1br condo in and old building in a crime ridden part of town.

David

[Endangered Specie]

9. Excellent... looks like Ill have no trouble finding a job.

[0007]

13. The rich sez yummy yummy more folks to fuck

[Bono71]

16. And the poor say yummy yummy more construction jobs created.

[independentpiney]

25. And more small contractors bankrupted by sleazy developers

who beat them down to working near cost just to keep working, don't pay for 90 days plus, and then still withhold retainages and unsubstantiated backcharges for a year or more. I never met a private developer who wouldn't knowingly contract to a company using illegals at substandard wages or breaking osha laws as long as they worked the cheapest.
Maybe you're the rare exception?

[Bono71]

27. When did illegals enter the pitcure? Do you honestly think all

development is done in that fashion?

Some of the intial posters seem to think all development is immoral and for the capitalist swine...it's like, at any moment, someone is going to fire up the politburo and any person guilty of making a **profit** is goin to be sentenced to the Gulag. Puhlease. If this is what the democrat party is becoming (which it isn't) they will never win another election.

Ask anyone in the business, margins a extremely tight for everyone, not just small contractors.

You want people to stop using illegals? Enforce the laws. Prosecute companies who use them. Make local police and government agencies actually turn them over when caught (many cities in California willfuly refuse to cooperate with the feds when in comes to immigration enforcement--see Cruz Bustamante).

[independentpiney]

37. Illegals are just a part of the problem

But you can't deny they're a factor at least in some regions of the country. It's sort of like shit rolling downhill- margins are insanely tight because instead of passing along the true increased costs of permitting and engineering to the consumer, everbody beginning with the developer tries to beat the guy the next tier down to make up a little profit.

Do you not care if illegals are being used on your jobsites as long as the price is right?Builders associations are always big on self-policing- why not do something yourselves as builders to prevent your subcontractors from skirting labor laws? All you'd need to do is incorporate a few contractual clauses that you can dig up in any public contract.

[Bono71]

40. I'm not a builder (more on the development side) but I think you

and I both know that self-policing ain't going to work. It goes against human nature. The government is going to have to crack down on the companies and illegals alike, or nothing will change.

[leesa]

44. You actually believe this is going to happen?? Funny.

[leesa]

20. What drugs are these people taking??

[daleo]

38. Where will the jobs for all these people be?

I keep hearing about out-sourcing and the hollowing out of the middle class. These seem like pretty rosy scenarios, given current economic trends.

[CrispyQ]

43. The rich people will hire a maid for every room.

That's where the jobs will come from -- servicing the rich, & working at McD's & Walmart.

[many a good man]

41. Does the SSA know about this?

I thought our big problem was that the ratio of workers/retirees was going to be so low that we have to dip into the surplus. A 33% increase in the population sounds like it would take of that. Are these numbers figured into their projections or are they using much more pessimistic numbers?

[Blue_Tires]

47. who the fuck will be able to afford it??