WP: Several Factors Contributed to 'Lost' Voters in Ohio

[kskiska]

Wednesday, December 15, 2004; Page A01

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Tanya Thivener's is a tale of two voting precincts in Franklin County. In her city neighborhood, which is vastly Democratic and majority black, the 38-year-old mortgage broker found a line snaking out of the precinct door.

She stood in line for four hours -- one hour in the rain -- and watched dozens of potential voters mutter in disgust and walk away without casting a ballot. Afterward, Thivener hopped in her car and drove to her mother's house, in the vastly Republican and majority white suburb of Harrisburg. How long, she asked, did it take her to vote?

Fifteen minutes, her mother replied.

"It was . . . poor planning," Thivener said. "County officials knew they had this huge increase in registrations, and yet there weren't enough machines in the city. You really hope this wasn't intentional."

Electoral problems prevented many thousands of Ohioans from voting on Nov. 2. In Columbus, bipartisan estimates say that 5,000 to 15,000 frustrated voters turned away without casting ballots. It is unlikely that such "lost" voters would have changed the election result -- Ohio tipped to President Bush by a 118,000-vote margin and cemented his electoral college majority.

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64737-2004Dec14.html

[il_lilac]

1. Nothing to see here...

just move along. This is unacceptable for a supposed democracy!

[4democracy]

2. I think this is a decent attempt to write about Ohio election problems

at least they seemed to have done some research this time,even though they make sure to get in the opinion that it was all just errors and glitches and not enough votes were lost,etc.etc. to have made a difference in the election.
I believe the recount and/or exposing the fraud will soon prove that to be a false assumption!

[SharonAnn]

3. 10,000 here, 5,000 there, pretty soon you've stolen 150,000 votes

and that's the election!

Fail to process registrations in time
Not enough machines
Challenge supporters of opponent

1% here, 1% there, pretty soon you've shaved 5% off your opponent's vote count and that's the election, baby!

[EQPlayer]

4. Washington Post article

I think the article was well written, even if they didn't go out on a limb. There is the underlying thread of disenfranchisement due to long lines and people not voting. It's a step in the right direction, and it looks like it will be front page news in the Wednesday edition.

Unfortunately, unless there is out and out fraud somewhere with voted being shifted from Kerry to * or someone else, the "certified" results are not likely to change. The big issue is how many people didn't vote since the lines were too long. That is the guts of the article, and front page on the Washington Post saying there was active disenfranchisement due to not enough machines is not something we should just dismiss.

Unless someone in Ohio (i.e. Ohio Supreme Court) rules that the distribution of voting machines as mentioned in this article was a clear violation of the Equal Protection Act and says there has to be a revote (not just a recount), I don't think Kerry can win. But let's hope this issue, now that it's starting to seep into the MSM, stays on the front burner long enough for the Democrats to recognize that this could be a campaign issue for them in 2006. If the Repukes try and take it away by fixing the system, all the better, since the Democrats benefit in either case.

We let this issue get away in 2000, and it cost us again in 2004. Let's make sure by 2006 this remains front and center, and keep the pressure on.

Sorry for the somewhat rambling post, it's late and I should be in bed, but I was encouraged by this article.

[kk897]

5. Am I looking at this right?

Is this going to be Washington Post front-page news?! Is that what "Page A01" means?

[grasswire]

6. yes

that's cool.

[Pirate Smile]

7. Here are some of the really good parts. It is a long article, well worth

the read, of course.

"In Florida, ground zero for 2000's election meltdown, professors and graduate students from the University of California at Berkeley studied this year's voting results, contrasting counties that had electronic voting machines with those that used traditional voting methods. They concluded, based on voting and population trends and other indicators, that irregularities associated with machines in three traditionally Democratic counties in southern Florida may have delivered at least 130,000 excess votes for Bush in a state the president won by about 381,000 votes. The study prompted heated critiques from some polling experts. Stewart of MIT was skeptical, too. But he ran the numbers and came up with the same result. "You can't break it; I've tried," Stewart said. "There's something funky in the results from the electronic-machine Democratic counties."

-snip-
Voters in most Democratic wards experienced five-hour waits, and turnout was lower than expected. "I don't know if it's by accident or design, but I counted a dozen people walking away from the line in my precinct in Columbus," said Robert Fitrakis, a professor at Columbus State Community College and a lawyer involved in a legal challenge to certifying the vote.

-snip-
In northeastern Ohio, in the fading industrial city of Youngstown, Jeanne White, a veteran voter and manager at the Buckeye Review, an African American newspaper, stepped into the booth, pushed the button for Kerry -- and watched her vote jump to the Bush column. "I saw what happened; I started screaming: 'They're cheating again and they're starting early!' "

-snip-
But that official view contrasts sharply with the bubbling anger heard among rank-and-file Democrats. While some promote conspiratorial theories, most have a straightforward bottom line. "A lot of people left in the four hours I waited," recalled Thivener, the mortgage broker from Columbus. "A lot of them were young black men who were saying over and over: 'We knew this would happen.'

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

8. Deleted

wrong thread.

[Skittles]

9. not poor planning

it's EXACTLY the way they planned it

[tom_paine]

28. Yep, Skittles. Imperial Amerika isn't like Nazi Germany or the USSR

The Party that disenfranchises does so, at least partially, right out in the open KNOWING no one will stop them or even give a shit.

[DeepModem Mom]

10. Page-one, not bad -- (nt)

[AirAmFan]

11. It's only fair that wealthier people in the suburbs shouldn't have to wait

as long to vote as poorer people in the cities. After all, their time is more valuable!

This is not my opinion by any means, but it's no joke either This is the kind of argument you'd get in all seriousness on this issue from the kinds of policy analysts that advise the Bush-DeLay wing of the Republican Party. They also argue that it's only fair that wealthier people be allowed to buy their way out of criminal convictions, or at least get much shorter sentences than poor people who commit the same crimes.

John R. Lott, Ivy League professor, author of "more Guns Less Crime", and consultant to the US Commission on Civil Rights, had a paper published a few years ago making this very argument in what's considered one of the most prestigious journals in the economics profession.

This is what we're up against in Republican hell.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. kick

[understandinglife]

13. My letter to the authors

Good evening Mr Powell and Mr Slevin,

"OH offers lessons for 2008" - perhaps, but much more immediate issues should be the focus of your journalism and should have been since 2 Nov 2004.

The national election of 2004 is far from over, gentlemen. And, many, many of us have every intention of bringing the process to a halt by 6 Jan 2005. We must not allow the systematic attack on our American franchise of democracy to succeed; we will not permit systemic disenfranchisement to prevail.

Where have you and all your media colleagues been since the 'red shift' of 2 Nov 2004? Where were you when folk from OH to NM were being disenfranchised? Why have you not been at the front of the line demanding Mitofsky release all raw exit poll data from 2 Nov 2004? Why have you not been reporting on the extensive Republican linkage to Diebold, Sequoia and ES&S? Why have you not been reporting to the 30 % of voters on 2 Nov 2004 that they have no way of knowing if their vote was recorded as they intended; counted as they intended? Where is your outrage over what was done to African American and student voters?

I suggest you listen to what Congresswoman Waters had to say on Randi Rhodes on 14 Dec 2004. Read the full text of Moss v Bush. Study carefully Congressman Conyers letter to the FBI regarding Triad. Begin defending our Constitution; our franchise of democracy before it is too late.

Sincerely,
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Peace.

"When Did Bush Know?"

[callous taoboy]

14. xlent letter, understandinglife.

There are powerful forces at work who want U.S. citizens to start regarding elections as Mexican citizens do: You vote, but you know that the election is rigged and there isn't anything you can do about it. Thanks for doing something about it.

[understandinglife]

16. Michael Powell responds and so do I

Very kind of you to respond Michael.

My point is, we are still engaged in the national election of 2004. Hour by hour, since ~ 9pm EST, 2 Nov 2004, many of our fellow citizens have been gathering and analyzing and recognizing that what is happening in this national election must not be permitted to stand.

By 6 Jan 2005 we should have halted a fundamentally fraudulent process and begun the process of rectifying it. Anything less is to forsake our American franchise of democracy.

You might find the following of interest:

"Folks Don't Get It"
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/12/15/9734/4841

"Why Ohio Matters"
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/12/15/12545/041

A tragic lack of commitment to our democracy and our Constitution was witnessed in the US Senate on 6 Jan 2001. The consequences of that lack of fortitude; that lack of courage on the part of every single member of the US Senate to stand with their patriotic colleagues from the House of Representatives are abundant and grotesque.

Regarding the current status of the national election of 2004, a simple historical summary suffices -- "Besides, sir, we have no election."

We will prevail.

Peace.
xxxx

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Powell
Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2004 9:05 AM
To: xxxxx
Subject: Re: "lessons for 2008"

xxxx,

While the headline--over which we have no control--may have spoken of 2008, we were very much focused on the 2004 election, and explicitly raised the question of voter disenfranchisement and how black voters suffered disproportionately.

Thanks for your note.

Michael Powell
New York Bureau Chief
Washington Post
[e-mail]
212 445 5298

[Botany]

15. About Time the MSM started to cover this.

I live in Ohio. I saw election "fraud" first hand. We need to keep blogging, writing, and talking about this theft of the election.

:bounce:

[VegasWolf]

17. err, let me guess, Corruption, Fraud? n/t

[durablend]

18. Diebold, crooked Republicans...

Etc. etc. etc...

[AirAmFan]

19. For our continuing vulnerability to many of these 'factors', blame Jimmy

Carter's weakness when he co-led the "Carter-Ford Commission" that rolled out the "Help America Vote Act" of 2002. Dozens of very smart people urged Carter to insist on COMPREHENSIVE MANDATORY national standards for elections.

But NOOOOO! Carter was too WEAK to stand up to Republicans then, right after the Florida and Supreme Court outrages, when the whole world was watching. Longstanding Republican dirty election tricks could have been exposed and banned at that teachable moment for the whole world. But Jimmy Carter ratified the American patchwork of "states rights" and electoral administration by 3,000 counties.

Now we all have to continue to suffer in Republican incumbent hell in states where the GOP controls the State House on Election Day. Rove, Delay, and company have used the "Help America Vote Act" to cement in place biased voter purges, minority vote suppression, arbitrary rules to take away Democrats' votes in states run by Republicans, and voting machines with no paper trail.

See http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnists/wickham/2001-08-07-wickham.htm for a very prescient USA today column written in 2001, and the links to commission reports at http://www.eagleton.rutgers.edu/e-gov/e-elecreformlinks.htm

[GeorgeGist]

20. Sent Michael Powell this email.

Subject: Several Factors Contributed to 'Lost' Voters in Ohio"

Dear Mr. Powell,

In the subject article you and your colleague Peter Slevin make the claim:

"It is unlikely that such "lost" voters would have changed the election result -- Ohio tipped to President Bush by a 118,000-vote margin and cemented his electoral college majority."

Would you have the courage to give me a precise estimate of how unlikely it is that the election results might be different if lost votes had been counted?

Sincerely,

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
------------------------------------------------
I'll let you know when he responds:

[GeorgeGist]

21. Mr Powell's reply

I'm not quite sure what you mean by a "precise estimate"? I would not try
to assign a percentage to that statement.

Another reader, however, took us to task, arguing that the problems were
sufficient to overturn the results. If you don't mind, I'll share my
response to this reader with you.

To whit:

As to the question of whether the problems were of sufficient magnitude to
turn the election, we talked quite a bit about this and had many
conversations with local activists and political scientists and the like.
I'm comfortable with our conclusion.

For instance, take Columbus. Let's use the highest possible estimate of
"lost voters", about 15,000 to 17,000. Some percentage of those voters
would have cast a ballot for Bush (surprisingly, several of the affadavits
filed were from Republican voters in the city, who were nonetheless
outraged at the lack of machines). So let's figure perhaps 10,000 votes tip
into Kerry's colum.

Then let's add another 10,000 votes in Toledo and Akron, where the lines
also were quite long and the shortage of machines quite acute. Then add
another 5,000 votes for Cincinnati. And let's take the third party votes in
Cleveland and assume those fell into the Kerry column. Similarly, let's
assume that of the 8,000 disallowed provisional votes in Cuyahoga County,
5,000 should have been counted, and most of those would have been counted
as Kerry ballots.

And let's figure that 5,000 votes in Mahoning County should be transferred
from Bush to Kerry, because of those so called calibration errors.

Please keep in mind that in each of these cases, I've taken a very
expansive estimate of lost votes. We're still at around 30,000 to 50,000
votes, or about half the distance to Bush. Even adding in troubles in other
counties, it seems quite unlikely that we're talking about enough votes to
turn the election.

Also, please keep in mind that there's only one subset of voters who will
be recounted--that is, the folks who made it to the polls and cast a
ballot. That's the subset that will be RECOUNTED. I think you'd agree with
you me that it's very unlikely that this subset will overturn the result.

Let me add that it may be that other problems and/or corruption will float
to the surface. If it does, we should write about that.

Thanks again,



Michael Powell
New York Bureau Chief
Washington Post
[e-mail]
212 445 5298

[WhiteTara]

22. self delete

[WhiteTara]

23. the key point here is the talking point

"that even with a recount, * would win". This is another KKKRove plant imho. This article states hundreds here, thousands there, soon you have a quarter million...but that is not the talking point...even with a recount, * would win.

I wonder if being brother Bonesmen, did that catapult Kerry into the nominee position, and then in the end he threw it for *, because of their secret vow. I was shocked when Kerry conceded 30 minutes after Edwards said we would stay the counting course. Now he is silent as the grave on the recount issue and his lawyers say (paid by all our dollars by the way) it's a fun exercise, but it really doesn't matter "in the end, * would win".

[reprobate]

24. BNL, your point is well made.

I have been calling Kerry the Manchurian Candidate.

Example: How could a party that was supposed to be so opposed to everything that the repugs represented field a candidate who was no more than a mirror image of the incumbant? Whose solution for iraq was "What he said, but I'll do it better".

One would think that someone THAT smart would see the fallicy of that position pretty quick and modify it to separate himself from the incumbant. But no, everything he said about it made him seem the greater of the two evils. Intentionally? One has to wonder.

Another example: It's apparent that Dean was assasinated politically by the media. Intentionally. Suddenly Kerry, the candidate barely recognized by most dems, became the front leader. Who made him so, except for the media?

I think it's time that we accept the fact that we have all been gamed.

I believe that this past election HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH DEMOCRACY!

I believe that this past election was no more than the corporate whores showing us that their money will always trump our enthusiasm.

I think that anyone who now trusts either party is a fool who will be used again and thrown away.

Hark! What's that noise I hear in the distance?

Why, grasshopper, that's the revolution approaching. Are you ready?

[WhiteTara]

25. Why, grasshopper, that's the revolution approaching.

were only that was true. But here we sit in front of our computers and talk in heartbroken revulsion.

[Supersedeas]

26. this must make Secretary Blackwell smile-smile

Proof to Rove of a job well-done.

[ivolsky]

27. Why no outrage?

I, for the life of me cannot understand why this has not generated greater outrage. Remember, these are just the instances we know about. Why is this being taken so lightly?

more: www.politicalthought.net

[Supersedeas]

29. call it 'factors' to take the human element out of it