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Edited on Thu Dec-23-04 11:18 PM by happyslug
Remember the REASON for the attack is to take out the "Ba'athistst" leadership. If that leadership is like any other guerrilla leadership, it is dispersed and designed to take several successful hits AND STILL FUNCTION. Thus Air attacks in Syria will NOT help the Situation in Iraq.
Please note the previous paragraph assumes that the "Ba'athists Leadership" is in Syria, something that is NOT a given in real life. The "Ba'athists Leadership is probably in Iraq, but no one in the Department of Defense wants to admit that for it indicates a complete lack of control over HUGE areas of Iraq. Furthermore given the borders of Iraq, any Effective leadership will be from Iran not Iraq, for Iranian Rivers flow right into the Twin Rivers of Iraq. Not the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers both start in Syria, but to get to Iraq proper the Rivers have to go through Kurdish Controlled Territories, which would prevent any control/Supplies coming from Syria.
Furthermore Al Queda probably is controlling its Troops in Iraq from Saudi Arabia. The Border between Saudi Arabia and Iraq is a line drawn in the Sand (In the Open Desert on top of it all). It Appears the US has FAILED to control this line more than any other line. It is the easiest to do IF YOU ARE NOT COMMENTED ELSEWHERE (All you have to do is fly over in a Piper Cub every so often and report any trucks moving in from Saudi Arabia, but you still to have someone stop the trucks coming in from Saudi Arabia).
My point is if ANY outside forces are entering Iraq it is from Iran and Saudi Arabia more than Syria.
This gets us back to the problem "Why Attack Syria?". I still believe Bush and Company want to invade Iran. The plan for Iran calls for the US to secure its supply line. For the Invasion of Iraq the US Supply line went along the Persian Gulf WHICH IRAN BORDERS FOR THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF. Iran has Shore to Land Missiles that can take out those Supply ships. Thus before any invasion of Iran the US want to secure its supply line. Saudi Arabia is a Desert Kingdom, not sufficient ports facilities etc except in the Persian Gulf. With the Persian Gulf out as a "secure" supply line that leaves Bruit as the best port to supply the US forces. Syria is between Bruit and Iraq.
Thus an air Attack does NOT secure that Supply line. A Bruit-Lebanon Supply line will also give the US an additional Supply line into Baghdad. A Supply line not now under attack (It will be whenever the US does attack but wishful thinking has always been an hallmark of this administration).
Now we also have to consider the frustration level of this Administration. NOTHING has gone according to plan since the initial invasion. When to are being defeated the best thing to do is to pull out and save what you can, but this administration CAN NOT WITHDRAW WITHOUT GIVING UP WHAT THEIR TRULY WANT, PERSIAN GULF OIL. People do stupid things when their are frustrated. Things that they would NOT have done if they were thinking straight. While the Present US Army can NOT attack Syria (do to its involvement in Iraq) that does not mean this Administration does NOT want them to attack. Thus I can see this administration ordering a Air Raid on Syria to Kill the Ba'athists leadership even if everyone knows before the attack is even planed that the plan will NOT accomplish its goal. Furthermore I can see an Invasion being order even it is is doomed to fail because that was to goal in the first place and the Civilian Leadership in this Administration unwilling to change the plan even if the plan can no longer be implemented.
This is the Frustration level of this administration. Iraq has been compared to Stalingrad, where the Germans threw in more and more men and supplies AFTER the battle had been lost. Hitler only gave up on the German Army Sixth Army in Stalingrad when it surrendered (and even then ordered an New "Sixth Army" to replace it, showing you his frustration, his plans for conquest of Russia was dead with the Sixth Army but Hitler was NOT about to admit it).
I see this administration at that same frustration level, can't win but do not want to pull out. At least in Vietnam LBJ admitted he only stayed in Vietnam to keep his Republican Critics somewhat muted (LBJ knew he was frustrated couldn't win but didn't dare pull out do to fear of the political fall out such a pull out would unleash). Nixon had a similar frustration, after beating Humphrey for the Presidency Nixon had to solve the problem of Vietnam (Ended up adopting LBJ's Final Plan, which Nixon called Vietnamization, which was turn the war over the the South Vietnamese and than abandon them when you have political cover. Unfortunately for out troops in Vietnam no such Political Cover ever occurred and finally Congress took us out over the objection of Nixon and than President Ford). The US Bombing of North Vietnam, the Invasion of Cambodia, the South Vietnamese Invasion of Laos, where all the product of frustration. The US could not win but did not want to pull out. It took an overwhelming Democratic Congress to pull the US out and even than you had massive (Through Minority) opposition to the pull out.
The same thing with Iraq. Bush is no LBJ, Bush could not engineer some sort of Political Cover to cover a pull out from Iraq even if he wanted to. Anyway such a pullout would deny Bush control over the Persian Gulf Oil. Control over the Oil is why Bush invaded Iraq and he will NEVER give that up. At the same time the US can not control Iraq. Thus the US can not win but will not withdraw. For this reason the fighting will continue for years until either the American People kick the GOP out of Office (and that would require a Candidate that clearly states he wants to withdraw the US from Iraq, something Kerry was not) OR some other disaster strikes that forces the US to abandon its forces in Iraq (For example Saudi Arabia goes into Revolution and stops shipping oil forcing the price of oil to $200 a barrel while the US economy tanks). In many ways the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973 forced the people of the US and the US Congress to face the fact that the US could NOT afford to tie up its resources in Vietnam. Congress within a year saw the numbers and cut funding for Vietnam knowing Vietnam would fall without that funding.
I see the same thing occurring in Iraq. I do NOT see any President pulling out of Iraq. Such a Candidate will be like Governor Dean, never get the Nomination. On the other hand Congress seeing it had to do SOMETHING about the deteriorating economy will be forced to cut the Budget for the War in Iraq. Hopefully the Troops will be evacuated from Iraq before their are driven out, but I fear that will not happen. In Vietnam by 1974 most of the fighting was being done by South Vietnamese Troops NOT US Troops, thus once the money ran out, the US did not have to evacuate to many US troops. In Iraq I fear that WILL not happen. The Iraqi National Guard will fall BEFORE The US can pull all of its troops out. Worse the Iraqis will hit the US as it withdraws for that is when an Army is at its weakest. Furthermore it would be the last chance for many Iraqis to Act out their frustration over this war. It will be a bloody mess.
Back to my original post, what this administration will do will NOT be the product of logic, but of Frustration. Like Hitler in Stalingrad and Nixon in Vietnam, this Administration will NOT want to withdraw but somehow "win" a war it can not win. This administration will keep throwing things into this debacle until it has nothing left to throw. Thus I have to agree with the alleged reports from bin Laden, the US will only withdraw if its economy collapses and that will occur when oil to the US (and the World) is cut off. When that happens the US will have NOTHING left for Bush to throw into Iraq and the US will withdraw. You will have fighting in the streets of the US as the US withdraws from Iraq (and some of out Soldiers may take years to come back do to the US being unable to pay their ticket home).
Yes, Bush and the GOP has made a real mess of Both Iraq and the US.
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