2004 MN4 asteroid risk eliminated

[JohnLocke]

The 2004 MN4 asteroid risk has been eliminated
(Well...made mathematically insignificant)
It's not going to hit Earth! NASA reports that:
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Possibility of an Earth Impact in 2029 Ruled Out for Asteroid 2004 MN4
By Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 27, 2004
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Over the past week, several independent efforts were made to search for pre-discovery observations of 2004 MN4. These efforts proved successful today when Jeff Larsen and Anne Descour of the Spacewatch Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, were able to detect and measure very faint images of asteroid 2004 MN4 on archival images dating to 15 March 2004. These observations extended the observed time interval for this asteroid by three months allowing an improvement in its orbit so that an Earth impact on 13 April 2029 can now be ruled out.

As is often the case, the possibility of future Earth impacts for some near-Earth objects cannot be entirely ruled out until the uncertainties associated with their trajectories are reduced as a result of either future position observations, or in this case, heretofore unrecognized, pre-discovery observations. When these additional observations were used to update the orbit of 2004 MN4, the uncertainties associated with this object's future positions in space were reduced to such an extent that none of the object's possible trajectories can impact the Earth (or Moon) in 2029.

In the accompanying diagram, the most likely position of asteroid 2004 MN4 is shown at the end of the blue line near the Earth on 13 April 2029. However, since the asteroid's position in space is not perfectly known at that time, the white dots at right angles to the blue line are possible alternate positions of the asteroid. Neither the nominal position of the asteroid, nor any of its possible alternative positions, touches the Earth, indicating that an Earth impact in 2029 is ruled out.

The passage of the asteroid by the Earth in 2029 alters its subsequent trajectory and expands the asteroid's position uncertainty region (i.e., the line of white dots increases in extent) so the asteroid's subsequent motion is less certain than it was prior to the 2029 close Earth approach. However, our current risk analysis for 2004 MN4 indicates that no subsequent Earth encounters in the 21st century are of any concern.
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Read the rest here.
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(Mods, please note that NASA is a U.S. federal government agency and its works are not subject to copyright).
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Impact Probability
0.001800000% chance of Earth impact
99.99820000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
(1 in 56,000 chance)
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Updated Set of Possible Positions of 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029
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Slashdot thread
Raw data

[DRoseDARs]

1. Erm... how can a "99% Impact Probability" be an eliminated risk?

Impact Probability: .99

99.000000000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 1.0 chance

or

0.99999999% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

[Squatch]

2. Um....

I guess 1% of missing earth is better than 0%? :shrug:

[DRoseDARs]

6. Well, this is interesting. The page he linked has just changed.

Impact Probability: 1.8e-05

0.001800000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 56,000 chance

or

99.99820000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

[Squatch]

7. Well, I feel better.

[burrowowl]

12. 1 in 56,000

wouldn't be nice if winning the Power Ball had those odds!:evilgrin:

[electric-eye]

3. "0.99999999% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth" -

that doesn't sound good

[Squatch]

4. Are we looking at the same website?

99% chance that the asteroid will hit the earth.

[politicaholic]

5. Damn! I already planned on a 1/4 century o' blissful futility Camus style.

[Voltaire99]

13. ROFL!

Shit! This means we'll still have to save for retirement!

[ThoughtCriminal]

8. That page is a bit confusing

This one explains it a bit better:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news148.html

Impressively close though.

[JohnLocke]

9. Kick (nt)

[JohnLocke]

10. Kick (nt).

[StupidFOX]

11. That's going to be one HELL of a show.

Should throw people who don't follow the news into a panic, too :evilgrin:

[JohnLocke]

14. One more kick