Russia Faces Chechen Cease-Fire Bid

[Rose Siding]

MOSCOW — After years of war in the separatist republic of Chechnya, Russia faces an offer that politically is almost as difficult: an end to the fighting.

Rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov confirmed Monday that he had ordered a unilateral cease-fire and appointed an emissary to attend peace talks on the conflict, which has killed tens of thousands of people since 1994.

Another rebel leader, Shamil Basayev, who has claimed responsibility for the September assault on a school in the southern Russia town of Beslan that left 331 hostages dead, said last week that he would observe the cease-fire.

The two announcements significantly upped the ante for Russia, which faces growing international pressure for a political solution to the war. President Vladimir V. Putin has long refused to negotiate with separatist leaders, and officials Monday left no doubt that they would not take Maskhadov up on his cease-fire offer.......

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-chechens8feb08,0,7478398.story?coll=la-home-world

[makhno]

1. Smart move by the insurgents

Forcing Putin into a lose-lose political decision - legitimizing terrorist activities or being seen as unwilling to work on a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

I doubt Putin has the political capital to accept the cease-fire in anything but the most general, unofficial terms. The government has been shaken pretty badly by the Beslan investigation and particularly the pension reform. The timing of the cease-fire offer isn't coincidental, but any retreat from a hard stance on Chechen terrorism will not be seen in a positive light by the majority of Russians.