seen as a legitimate justification for growing Pakistan's nuclear power output by 1800%, while Iran's need for additional and diversified power generation is viewed by the US as a cause for alarm bordering on panic?
For some perspective:
http://www.payvand.com/news/04/dec/1056.html12/7/04
Iran's Nuclear Energy Program. Part IV: Economic Analysis of the Program
By Muhammad Sahimi <snip>
Iran's nuclear energy program has been transformed from one not needed by, or suitable for, Iran to one for which the EU is willing to GUARANTEE the supply of nuclear fuels, provided that Iran "suspends" indefinitely its uranium enrichment program!
At the same time, it should be pointed out that when, under the US encouragement (some say pressure), Iran's nuclear energy program was started by the Shah in 1974,
(a) Iran's population was less than half of the present 70 million;
(b) its oil production was about 5.8 million barrels (MB) per day, compared with the present average daily production of 3.9 MB/day;
(c) it exported about 5 MB/day of oil, compared with the present average daily export of 2.6 MB/day;
(d) its energy consumption was less than one-fourth of the present;
(e) the Shah's government was burning Iran's natural gas for elimination, simply because it had no use for it, and,
(f) unlike now, Iran's oil reservoirs were not in decline, needing re-pressurization (see below) by natural gas injection.
In short, Iran did not need AT THAT TIME to generate electricity using NPPs. This then begs the question: Why is it that, given its present conditions which can justify use of NPPs for producing electricity (see below), the neo-conservatives and their allies believe that Iran does not need nuclear energy, whereas the US strongly pushed the Shah in the 1970s to build NPPs when Iran had no need for them?
<snip>
According to reliable statistics (provided by not only Iran's Ministry of Power, but also by International Energy Agency, the British Petroleum Annual Statistics, etc.), between 1977 and 2003, Iran's rate of energy consumption has on average increased 5.5% per year, from an equivalent amount of 181 MB to about 740 MB of crude oil. Moreover, since the end of Iran-Iraq war in 1988, Iran's oil consumption has had an annual growth rate of about 8%, while the supply of energy from all of its sources has had an annual growth rate of 6%, hence barely keeping up with energy consumption. Between 1977 and 2001, the electricity production has been experiencing an average annual growth rate of 8.5%. Iran currently produces 31,000 megawatt (MW) of electricity. Most importantly, in 1977 Iran consumed 29.6 MB of crude oil to generate electricity, whereas 265 MB of oil were used in 2003 for the same purpose, representing an average annual growth rate of 8.8%.
If the above trend continues and crude oil is not replaced by another energy source, and if Iran does not increase its oil production significantly, it may become a net IMPORTER of oil over the next decade, a huge catastrophe for a country that obtains 80% of its total export earnings, 45% of its total annual budget, and about 15% of its GDP from exporting oil. It is estimated that during 2004 the average price of Iran's crude oil will be about $30/barrel. It is noteworthy that Iran earns about $900 million/year for every $1/barrel increase in the price of its oil.
<snip>