STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 30 March

[ozymandius]

Wednesday March 30, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 296 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 107 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 163 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1221
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 29, 2005

Dow... 10,405.70 -79.95 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq... 1,973.88 -18.64 (-0.94%)
S&P 500... 1,165.36 -8.92 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.59% -0.03 (-0.71%)
Gold future... 428.60 UNCH (UNCH)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

XAU Intermediate Term Analysis - Trading Strategy

In the last 12 months, our biggest and most profitable trades have been in gold stocks and XAU options (see client emails). We see no reason for that to change.

Between now and the end of the year, we strongly believe--assuming gold stocks remain in a long-term bull market--that the XAU will continue to provide the most rewarding trading opportunities. Here are our reasons why:

-charts-

Gold has been in a long-term up-trend for four years, and unless it closes below $400.00 for two consecutive weeks, there is no technical evidence to base upon any bearish view on gold, other than speculation based on intellectual arguments. For all means and purposes, as long as the trend remains positive, we will remain long-term bullish on gold, although short-term we are bearish.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.23 Change -0.09 (-0.11%)

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=503&Itemid=39

Pound Leads a Counter Move Against the Dollar

EUR/USD - Euro bears went into hibernation after the last week's unrelenting price action. With consolidation range pattern prevailing in the dull market conditions, the single currency was drifting aimlessly throughout the session. Defensive positions remained intact with both sides pausing before the all out warfare will begin anew.

Euro longs continue to rely on a minor support at 1.2890, created by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.3482 euro rally. Euro maintained further defensive positions at 1.2850, an intermediate support formed by the Feb 10 -14 consolidation range low. Major support at 1.2816, formed by the breakout of the Feb 7-10 consolidation, continues to act as the last line of defense for the euro before the dollar may retest the 1.2730 level. A breakdown of the major support at 1.2730 may see the pair retest 1.2490, a 61.8 fib of the1.1760-1.3667 euro rally. Dollar bulls adjusted their defensive lines in case of the counter move by the single currency. Euro longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2970, a Mar 23-24 consolidation low, followed by an intermediate resistance at 1.3016, established by the 61.8 Fib of the Feb-Mar euro rally. If the single currency manages to regain some of its lost territory it will come upon a major resistance at 1.3088, a 10-day SMA. Oscillators are mixed with Stochastic oversold at 7.91 on the daily chart and is treading above the oversold level at 79.99 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI at 34.93 and is moving away from the oversold level on the daily and it trading above the oversold line at 46.72 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is crossing the zero line on the daily and is sloping toward the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

<snip>

USD/JPY - The price action in the USD/JPY is becoming reminiscent of the shoving match as both the yen and the dollar bulls continue to dance around the major trendline at 107.10. Minor resistance remains at 107.29, Nov 11 counter trend spike high, followed by intermediate resistance at 107.58, a Jun 12 spike low. Major resistance at 108.38, a 50.0 Fib of the 114.51-101-68 yen rally, remains a tempting target for the greenback, as a break in the resistance may see the pair retest 109.92, a 61.8 Fib of the May-Jan yen rally. Dollar bulls will rely on the minor support at 106.70, a 5-day SMA, with intermediate support at 106.20, a Mar 23-25 consolidation low, protecting the greenback's territory. A major support at 105.63, a key 23.6 Fib of the 101.68-106.87 dollar rally, continues to defend dollar's holdings. Indicators are mixed with Stochastic overbought on the daily chart at 89.97 and is dipping below the overbought level at 70.39 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI crossed into the overbought line on the daily at 72.93 and is dipping below the overbought line at 63.89 on the 4-hour chart. MACD continues to rise above the zero line on the daily chart and followed through with a bearish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/03/30/ap1913020.html

Dollar Slips, Taking Breather From Rally

The dollar fell against other major currencies Wednesday. The euro bought $1.2953 in European trading, up from $1.2918 in New York late Tuesday. The British pound rose to $1.8818 from $1.8742.

The dollar also fell against the Japanese yen, dropping to 107.44 yen. It bought 107.56 yen late Tuesday.

The U.S. currency has taken a breather from its rally last week as trading picked up after the Easter holiday.

Worries about the wide U.S. trade and budget deficits sent the euro surging to an all-time high of $1.3667 at the end of December.

While those concerns remain, the dollar has stabilized this year. It enjoyed a rebound last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by a quarter-point and issued a hawkish statement on stronger inflationary pressures.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[fasttense]

2. And the walls come tumbling down.

Well at least they are going too far down. I want to go back to the Clinton years when the DOW was at 1100 to 1200. Or was that just all a dream?

[Tace]

12. Unfortunately, It's Not Completely Outside The Realm Of Possibility

: (

[UpInArms]

4. Top GM Exec in China Resigns

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2005/03/30/ap1912949.html

General Motors Corp.'s top executive in China has left the company amid declining sales, the company said Wednesday.

Phil Murtaugh, 50, resigned after nearly five years as chairman and managing director of GM's China Group, GM said in a statement.

<snip>

Murtaugh oversaw explosive growth at GM's China operations and played a key role in the launch of Shanghai GM, the company's biggest mainland venture. He also was responsible for Taiwan.

GM shocked investors by warning that it would post a substantial loss in the first quarter of this year and by slashing its 2005 profit outlook to less than half earlier forecasts. It is threatened with a possible downgrade in its credit rating to junk-level status.

GM has pointed to China as a success story. But it has suffered a sudden drop in sales due to rising competition and efforts by the Chinese government to slow economic growth.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. is GM making fuel cell autos?

8:04am 03/30/05 GENL MOTORS GETS $88M PACT FOR GOVT FUEL-CELL CAR FLEET

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.3398026505-833671815&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM) has been awarded a 5-year, $88 million contract from the U.S. Department of Energy to build a 40-vehical fuel cell fleet of vehicle and to further develop the fuel cell technology. Under terms of the contract, $44 million will be spent on deploying fuel cell vehicles in Washington, D.C., New York, California and Michigan, and the DOE will contribute the other half. GM's stock, a component of the Dow industrials, closed Tuesday up 24 cents at $28.61.

(edited to add link and blurb)

[RawMaterials]

15. General Motors' Pause on Way to Junk Is Troubling: Mark Gilbert

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- When General Motors Corp. tore up this year's financial projections on March 16, credit rating companies should have responded by instantly slashing the automaker's debt to junk. Their failure to pull the trigger is both puzzling and troubling.

It's puzzling because lesser financial crimes have prompted cuts in the past. And it's troubling because it's hard to shake the feeling that the reluctance to kick General Motors out of the investment-grade category has more to do with the size of its debts than any lingering faith in its creditworthiness.

It's now cheaper to buy insurance in the credit derivatives market against Fiat SpA failing to pay its debts than it is to buy coverage against a default by General Motors, even though the Italian automaker is rated three levels lower than its U.S. counterpart with a junk grade of BB- at Standard & Poor's.

A default swap on Fiat costs 370,000 euros ($481,000) per year to insure 10 million euros of debt for five years, compared with 435,000 euros a year to guard against not getting repaid on General Motors euro-denominated debt.

General Motors doesn't keep its ratings for as long as other companies, says Gary Jenkins, head of European credit strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. The carmaker lasted 728 days at BBB, compared with the average for other companies of 1,776 days. It stayed at BBB+ for just 366 days, less than the average of 1,759. Borrowers stick at BBB- for an average of 1,511 days; General Motors has been there since Oct. 14, for 167 days.

snip..

`Heightened Concern'

When S&P cut its credit rating for General Motors to the lowest investment-grade level in October, it cited ``heightened concern about the profit potential of the company's automotive operations.'' Moody's rates the company one level higher at Baa2, though that's being reviewed for a reduction.

S&P should have cut the rating after General Motors announced earlier this month that it expected a first-quarter loss of $1.50 a share, abandoning its previous pledge to at least break even. Instead, it added a ``negative'' outlook to the grade, described the BBB- assessment as ``tenuous,'' and said it ``could be lowered at any point'' without being put on review for a reduction.

``We'll be commenting further regarding General Motors in due course,'' S&P auto analyst Scott Sprinzen wrote on March 24 in an e-mailed response to a request for an interview. ``For now, I have nothing to add to what I've said previously.''

Reluctant to Cut?

In an October note, S&P listed some frequently asked questions about its ratings of General Motors and Ford Motor Co., including this poser: ``Would you ever be reluctant to lower GM's and/or Ford's ratings below investment grade, given the turmoil in the debt markets that would result?''

Unsurprisingly, the rating company's answer to itself was: ``No. If we ever came to believe that deterioration in either company's credit quality warranted such rating action, we would not hesitate to act.''

Instead of having positive cash flow of $2 billion this year, General Motors now sees negative cash flow of $2 billion. Instead of earnings per share this year of $1 to $2, the automaker might make only 50 cents, UBS analyst Robert Hinchcliffe wrote in a report last week. Its cash reserves might drop below $16 billion by the end of the year, from about $24 billion, Hinchcliffe wrote.

That looks very much like a deterioration in credit quality. Equity investors have wiped almost 30 percent off the market value of General Motors this year; debt investors already treat the company's bonds like junk. Hesitating on cutting the credit rating of General Motors is just delaying the inevitable.



http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=auTRhWyDfL.8

[UpInArms]

27. GM March sales could disappoint: Deutsche Bank

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.3947430556-833674399&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Deutsche Bank on Wednesday cautioned clients that General Motors (GM) could disappoint when it reports its March sales figures on Friday. "Based on our survey of U.S. dealers, we believe U.S. auto sales may come in significantly weaker than investors expect," analyst Rod Lache wrote in a research note. Lache said dealers seem to be experiencing particularly weak sales despite modest upward adjustments to incentives and that he remains concerned about risk to GM shares and for suppliers tied to GM. "If our estimates prove correct, we believe these results would come as a negative surprise to the market," he said.

[UpInArms]

5. ARMs prove attactive, boosting mortgage applications

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.2917917245-833669872&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage applications volume increased 2.4 percent in the week ended March 25 compared to the prior week, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Also on a seasonally adjusted basis, applications for mortgages to buy homes rose 5.5 percent on a week-to-week basis, while refinancing applications dropped 2 percent. Adjustable rate mortgages accounted for 36.6 percent of last week's total applications, up from 33.5 percent a week earlier. This was a record high for ARMs and reflected the recent move high in mortgage interest rates, the MBA's Mike Cevarr said. Refinancings dropped to 37.8 percent of last week's applications from 39.5 percent in the prior week. The average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.08 percent from 5.95 percent on a week-to-week basis, while 15-year mortgages climbed to 5.61 percent from 5.49 percent. One-year ARMs saw their rates reach 4.39 percent from 4.12 percent, according to the MBA's

[JNelson6563]

7. Ok, wait a minute.....

Rates are goingup and it is widely speculated they will be moving in 50 basis pt steps instead of 25 and ARMs are the hot seller? Stupidity is on the march.

Julie

[UpInArms]

9. my thoughts exactly, Julie

these folks have fallen from the stupid tree and hit every branch on the way.

[RawMaterials]

14. Its got to be one of two things

people cant afford to buy the house they need to live in with out the arm, so their gambling that they will want to sell in 5 years or so, and someone is going to want to buy that sed house.
The other thing it could be is that its a speculative buyer trying to flip the property in the next year or so.

ether way i feel sorry for these people, The housing bubble is going to kill the economy for years to come. The republicans will probably try to blame it on Clinton.

[MARALE]

46. I think it is both

Why anyone would do an ARM if they aren't going to resale in the next few months is beyond me. This is the time to sell a house-April and May are the 2 best months for those with kids in school. I hope that this ARM trend is just flip sellers, I feel for those that are buying what they can not afford, it will not be getting any easier soon.

[UpInArms]

74. Metro mortgage defaults on rise

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~33~2788653,00.html

Soaring foreclosure filings in Arapahoe County for the first three months of this year helped drive metro Denver's foreclosure rate 34 percent higher than the same period of last year and 30 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2004.

The seven-county region's ballooning rates stem from bad borrowing and lending decisions, lagging income growth and flat home prices, experts say.

It's hard to continue blaming foreclosures only on the economy. Colorado added 27,900 jobs last year, and the state's unemployment rate dropped in January to 4.9 percent, the lowest level since September 2001.

"Lenders started giving money to people, and it's gotten out of hand," said Jeannie Reeser, public trustee of Adams County. "I am talking to people who have jobs, but their income doesn't come anywhere close to matching their financing."

<snip>

Arapahoe County's most recent quarterly filing rate is more than double the 757 foreclosures posted in the fourth quarter of last year. The county had the dubious distinction of posting the greatest rise in foreclosures last year - a 39 percent spike over 2003.

Wenke said most of the foreclosures her office is handling are tied to loans less than a year and a half old. Eighty percent of the county's foreclosures occurred in Aurora.

<snip>

"Everybody has to have what they want right now, no waiting, no saving up," he said. "Credit is so loose today that I can buy the groceries I need on a credit card, eat the food tonight, discard the food by tomorrow at noon and finance my debt on a 30-year, amortized loan. How stupid is that? But people do it all the time - and then they wonder why they're in foreclosure."

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

6. Sears announces layoffs, pay cuts

http://www.dailybreeze.com/business/articles/1417852.html

CHICAGO -- Sears Holdings Corp. plans to cut pay and benefits for its work force of 400,000 early next year, according to a published report.

The retail giant was created last week through the $12.3 billion merger of Hoffman Estates-based Sears, Roebuck and Co. and Troy, Mich.-based Kmart Holding Corp.

Company spokesman Chris Brathwaite would not confirm Tuesday that Sears planned any cuts to pay or benefits, as the Detroit Free Press reported, but he said Sears' employees were sent an e-mail Monday informing them that they would be told next month of changes to their benefits packages, coming next year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. AIG says Gen Re transaction accounting was 'improper"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.3138127431-833670752&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- American International Group (AIG) said Wednesday it has concluded that the documentation for its reinsurance transaction with General Re Corp. was improper and that this deal shoudn't have been recorded as insurance. The Dow component plans to adjust its financial statements to reflect this, reducing the reserve for losses and loss expenses by $250 million and increasing other liabilities by $245 million. The company said the adjustment will have "virtually no impact" on its financial condition as of Dec. 31. AIG also said it's reviewing prior estimates of deferred acquisition costs and that it may record an after-tax charge of $370 million if revisions are necessary. The company added that it could also reclassify certain items previously reported as net investment income. AIG also said its management has yet to complete its assessment of the effectiveness of the company's internal controls over financial reporting as of Dec. 31.

"no impact" - hahahahaha

[UpInArms]

11. Buffett was told of AIG deal -- report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B01A0588F%2D8C65%2D4069%2DA02E%2D2A67C7A48C25%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Warren Buffett was told briefly in advance about a transaction at the center of an investigation into an insurance unit he controls, and he believed the deal could be done properly, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

<snip>

However, investigators have documents and witnesses that they believe indicate that Buffett, 74, was involved early on in discussions about the transaction, according to the Journal's report, which cited two unnamed people familiar with the matter. The investigation is jointly being handled by the Justice Department, New York's attorney general and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Buffett is prepared to tell regulators that in the fall of 2000, he had a 25-minute phone call with former General Re Chief Executive Ronald Ferguson devoted mainly to a discussion of the company's third-quarter results, the Journal reported. The phone call also included a brief discussion of the transaction with AIG, according to the report. See the Journal story.

<snip>

Investigators believe that some 50 AIG transactions could have resulted in improper accounting on its financial statements totaling $1.5 billion, according to the Journal.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. AIG Says Net Worth May Be $1.7 Bln Inflated by Errors

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aFZ8gvsiEL8w&refer=home

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer, said an array of accounting errors over 14 years may have inflated its net worth by as much as $1.7 billion.

AIG, which ousted Chief Executive Officer Maurice Greenberg earlier this month, said in a statement today that transactions with reinsurers, including Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., were structured to manipulate the company's accounting. AIG delayed filing its annual report for a second time and said correcting the mistakes may result in an earnings restatement or a cumulative expense booked in last year's fourth quarter.

``When you get into something like, you begin to wonder if the intrinsic value of the company will be changed,'' said James Huguet, a fund manager at Great Companies LLC in Clearwater, Florida, before today's announcement. Great Companies oversees $1.3 billion and holds 280,000 shares of AIG.

<snip>

Other problematic transactions masked $200 million of insurance underwriting losses and inflated $300 million of investment income, such as interest and dividends, AIG said.

...more...

"no impact"?

[Zynx]

38. I am willing to bet that it's more than they say.

[UpInArms]

56. AIG reveals ties to Bermuda reinsurers

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B94633AAE%2D395C%2D4589%2D89BA%2D80666E0C12D3%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American International Group admitted Wednesday that it has been, in effect, buying reinsurance from itself through control of at least one Bermuda-based firm.

<snip>

Regulators, including New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and the Securities and Exchange Commission, have been investigating whether AIG used certain reinsurance transactions to manipulate its financial statements.

<snip>

While AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) often uses big, well-known reinsurers, the company said it has also bought coverage from two, more obscure, Bermuda-based companies called Richmond Insurance and Union Excess. AIG worked with the latter firm from 1991 to 2004.

AIG recently found evidence that it controls Richmond and may also control Union Excess, the company said. Previously, AIG had claimed the 2 firms were independent and reflected that in its results.

That means the giant insurer has been, in effect, buying reinsurance from itself: liabilities that the company previously claimed had been transferred to another firm were actually still the responsibility of AIG.

...more...

"no impact" hahahahahaha

[UpInArms]

62. AIG to expense Starr executive pay (millions off earnings)

Move will knock millions off insurer's reported earnings

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B70225361%2DC42E%2D43DB%2D8FF4%2DB6562D978424%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - American International Group said Wednesday it will begin expensing executive pay that used to be handled by a controversial private firm called Starr International Co. Inc. (SICO).

<snip>

As these probes have widened, AIG-linked private firms such as SICO have also been scrutinized.

SICO was formed more than 30 years ago to provide deferred compensation to top AIG executives. The firm owns about 12 percent of AIG shares - its only assets - and is chaired by deposed AIG Chief Executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg. Martin Sullivan, AIG's new CEO, is also a director of SICO, according to AIG's latest proxy statement.

SICO -- named after AIG founder Cornelius Vander Starr -- helped AIG lure and retain talent with offers of big compensation that didn't come straight out of shareholders' pockets.

Without SICO, AIG would have had to suck up $234.7 million in extra expenses between 2001 and 2003, according to the insurer's annual report last year.

However, SICO has been criticized for concentrating too much of the ownership of AIG shares among company executives, creating potential conflicts between management's responsibility to shareholders and their own interests.

...more...

"no impact" hahahahahahaha

[UpInArms]

64. AIG probe finds 'improper' accounting

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE49C3FE3%2D289B%2D4B93%2D9DD6%2D91AD8177A3E3%7D&siteid=mktw

Analyst keys to 'depth, breadth of apparent deceptions'

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American International Group concluded Wednesday that some of its reinsurance accounting was "improper" and masked the company's true financial condition.

<snip>

AIG also warned that it can't yet tell the final impact on its results, past and present.

"The depth and breadth of troubles and apparent lack of accounting controls at AIG is alarming," William Wilt, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients.

"Some investors may take comfort that details are beginning to emerge," Wilt added. "However, we are inclined to focus on the depth and breadth of the apparent accounting deceptions."

...more...

"no impact" hahahahahahaha

[UpInArms]

68. AIG: 14 Years of Errors Possible

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20050330&ID=4335932

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc. on Wednesday acknowledged accounting errors that could stretch back 14 years, including its treatment of a deal with Berkshire Hathaway that is at the center of federal and state investigations.

AIG's (AIG) sweeping disclosures -- which included the possibility that it may be forced to reduce the value of the company by $1.7 billion, or 2 percent -- were part of an effort to regain investor confidence. They came just days after Chairman Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg said he would retire following almost 40 years at the helm of the global insurance powerhouse.

AIG, which has lost more than $40 billion in stock market value since the investigations picked up steam in mid-February, saw its shares sink 2 percent to $57.05 on the New York Stock Exchange.

``It doesn't clear the decks,'' Michael Chren, senior portfolio manager at National City Investment Management Co. in Cleveland, said of the disclosure. ``I don't think we have bottomed out on the (bad) news, but I do think we've bottomed out on the stock price.''

<snip>

``Certain but not all of the original characterizations resulted from transactions which appear to have been structured for the sole or primary purpose of accomplishing a desired accounting result,'' AIG said, referring to its review of the deals.

...more...

sounds like AIG has a habitually criminal way of accounting for errors since 1991 :eyes:

"no impact" hahahahahaha

[UpInArms]

69. S&P Ratings for AIG cut

3:33pm 03/30/05 S&P CUT AIG RATINGS FOLLOWING FURTHER 10-K FILING DELAY

3:32pm 03/30/05 S&P:AIG RATINGS STAY ON CREDITWATCH W/ NEG IMPLICATIONS

3:30pm 03/30/05 S&P CUTS AIG'S DEBT RATINGS TO 'AA+' FROM 'AAA'

[UpInArms]

71. AIG loses prized 'AAA' S&P ratings

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.6553048611-833686866&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American International Group (AIG) lost its prized 'AAA' ratings from Standard & Poor's Wednesday adding to the giant insurer's troubles. S&P said it cut AIG's long-term counterparty credit and senior debt ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA' after the giant insurer revealed a number of "questionable transactions" Wednesday. The rating agency said the revelations have undermined its confidence in AIG's management, internal controls, corporate governance practices and aggressive culture.

"no impact" hahahahaha

[UpInArms]

10. Today's Reports

Mar 30 8:30 AM
Chain Deflator-Final Q4
report -
briefing.com 2.1%
market 2.1%
last report 2.1%
revised -

Mar 30 8:30 AM
GDP-Final Q4
report -
briefing.com 3.8%
market 4.0%
last report 3.8%
revised -

[UpInArms]

19. reports coming in

U.S. Q4 GDP unrevised at 3.8% rise

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.3543789236-833672301&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Fourth quarter U.S. growth rose 3.8 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate given a month ago, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The final Q4 growth rate was below analyst expectations. Economists were forecasting Q4 GDP to be revised to a 4.0 percent growth rate. Inflation measures were revised slightly higher; the core personal consumption expenditure price index increased at a 1.7 percent annual rate, compared with the previous estimate of a 1.6 percent increase.

U.S. Q4 before-tax corporate profits rise 13.4%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.3544629861-833672313&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. corporations' before-tax profits from current production jumped 13.4 percent to $1.06 trillion annualized in the fourth quarter, the fastest increase since the second quarter of 1987, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. For the year, corporate profits were up 9.5 percent. The government data are adjusted for inventory valuations and capital consumption.

8:30am 03/30/05 U.S. Q4 BEFORE-TAX PROFITS LARGEST SINCE Q2 1987

8:30am 03/30/05 U.S. Q4 BEFORE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS RISE 13.4%

8:30am 03/30/05 U.S. Q4 GDP UNREVISED AT 3.8%, BELOW 4.0% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

20. chain deflator report

can't find a news release, but here are the numbers:

chain deflator - a key measure on inflation - checked in slightly higher than expected at 2.3%

[spotbird]

21. But corporate profits are up.

Who cares about inflation?

[UpInArms]

22. really! like that should or would matter to the masses

or affect anyone :eyes:

here's the A(lways)B(roadcasting)C(rap) spin:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=625676

Economic Growth Brisk as Profits Surged

Mar 30, 2005 — WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy ended 2004 with brisk momentum on the strongest surge of corporate profits in three years, the government reported on Wednesday, though there were signs that price pressures might be picking up.

<snip>

That was slightly less than the 4 percent GDP pace that Wall Street analysts had forecast but still reflected healthy growth, only slightly less than the third quarter's 4 percent rate. Most private-sector analysts anticipate steady expansion during 2005 but with some drag from rising oil prices as the year wears on.

<snip>

Corporate profits after taxes climbed 12.5 percent during the fourth quarter to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of $973 billion - the strongest increase in profits since an 18.9 percent surge in the fourth quarter of 2001. Profits had fallen 4.2 percent in the third quarter after a series of hurricanes wreaked havoc in several southeastern states.

There was some evidence that inflation might be perking up. A price index favored by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan - personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy products - gained at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from a 1.6 percent estimate a month ago and nearly twice the 0.9 percent third-quarter rate of increase.

For all of 2004, GDP expanded 4.4 percent. That was the strongest growth in five years, since a 4.5 percent advance in 1999, and was well ahead of the 3 percent posted for 2003. A recent survey by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a consensus of leading economists, predicted GDP growth will ease to 3.7 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2006 as the Fed extends a campaign to restrain price pressures by gradually ratcheting interest rates higher.

...more at link...

Well, I guess that settles it - we're booming! Too bad that for most of the citizens of this country it is taking more dollars to have less.

[UpInArms]

36. DOE: Petroleum Inventories and API Petroleum Inventories

10:33am 03/30/05 DOE: DISTILLATE INVENTORIES DOWN 1.1 MILLION BARRELS

10:31am 03/30/05 DOE: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 2.9 MILLION BARRELS

10:30am 03/30/05 DOE: CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 5.4 MILLION BARRELS

I wonder what the difference between the DOE and API will be this week :eyes:

Gasoline supplies and distillates took another pounding, but with crude supplies being up, OPEC won't need to hike output :eyes:

on edit - adding API numbers:

10:41am 03/30/05 API: DISTILLATE INVENTORIES DOWN 639,000 BARRELS

10:42am 03/30/05 API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES LOWER BY 1.9 MILLION BARRELS

10:41am 03/30/05 API: CRUDE INVENTORIES ROSE 2.6 MILLION BARRELS

DOE: crude inventories +5.4 million
API: crude inventories +2.6 million

difference of 2.8 million

DOE: gasoline inventories -2.9 million
API: gasoline inventories -1.9 million

difference of 1 million

DOE: distillates inventories -1.1 million
API: distillates inventories -639,000

difference of 461,000

who to believe?

[UpInArms]

67. Crude-oil futures close down but off the low ($53.99 bbl)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.6293774537-833685675&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed lower but well off Wednesday's trough, and petroleum products rallied late as traders turned their attention from crude supplies to gasoline and heating oil inventories. May crude fell as low as $52.50 a barrel, with the slide precipitated by reports from the Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute data that showed a healthy increase in U.S. crude supplies. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude closed at $53.99, down 24 cents. April gasoline closed up 1.5 percent, or 2.31 cents, at $1.5961 a gallon, and April heating oil gained 3.2 percent, or 5.03 cents, to close at $1.6066 a gallon.

[RawMaterials]

16. China Says Property Boom Threatens Stability, Orders Clampdown

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- China's rising property prices pose a threat to the stability of Asia's second-largest economy and local officials who fail to take measures to rein in growth will be held to account, the country's highest ruling body said.

The State Council, China's cabinet, ordered the clampdown in a six-page document obtained by Bloomberg News that was circulated to city governments and state media. Bi Jianling, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Construction in Beijing, confirmed the release of the document, which hasn't been reported by mainland news outlets.

``Excessive growth in housing prices has directly undermined the ability of city residents to improve their living standards, affected financial and social stability, and even influenced the health of the national economy,'' the document said.

snip..

Shanghai's Boom

``Local governments must put on the agenda the important task of stabilizing housing prices,'' said the State Council document, dated March 26. ``People in charge will be held responsible if there are no effective measures to prevent housing prices from rising too fast.''

Prices in Shanghai, China's biggest commercial city, surged 18 percent in the past year, according to the city government's property index. Shanghai's property prices are ``worthy of concern and attention,'' central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on March 9.

``Social stability is already at stake in some places such as Shanghai,'' said Qiu Zhicheng, analyst at Xiangcai Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``Wage earners cannot afford houses, and hatred toward richer property owners is growing.''

snip..

Prick the Bubble'

Nationwide, China's property prices rose 10.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from an 8.6 percent gain in the previous three months, government figures show.

The government is concerned that rising property prices may fuel inflation, which accelerated to 2.9 percent in the first two months of this year, and spark unrest. The government also wants to slow price increases to reduce the risk of a subsequent collapse that could lead to fresh bad loans at the nation's banks.

``The government should take prompt action to prick the bubble in some places,'' Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International, said in an e-mailed report today. ``It's better for the bubble to burst earlier than later.''

The People's Bank of China said on March 17 that it will require lenders to charge at least 5.51 percent interest for a home loan of five years or more, from 5.31 percent. The central bank also said lenders will be able to raise down payments on home loans to 30 percent of the purchase price from 20 percent in areas of excessive growth. It didn't identify those areas.

Speculation

Property investment and speculation ``have increased hugely in some areas,'' the State Council document said. Excessive price increases in certain areas ``may turn into an overall problem if not controlled or handled properly.''

The central government will suspend approval of land used for non-housing construction projects in areas where home price growth outpaces consumer-price inflation to a ``certain extent,'' according to the document. The government will ``seriously punish'' property agents that hype prices and will curb speculation, it said.

The government will announce more policies ``at a proper time,'' the State Council said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=amNL6tKqM_RQ&refer=asia

We could learn a thing or two from these guys. IMHO

[RawMaterials]

17. Inflation Train Coming

NORTH AURORA, ILL. - Just when you've gotten used to low interest rates and low inflation due to a relatively muted economy and excellent productivity increases, the world begins to change. There are no guarantees or "sure things" in the investment business. But for what it's worth from a guy who has watched markets closely for almost 40 years, the likelihood of interest rates and gold prices rising over the next few years is as high as ever.

It seems inevitable to me that the recent substantial boost in oil prices will spread through the economy, causing a general and not insignificant increase in commodity and manufactured-goods prices. Such an increase is likely to be followed by increasing prices for services, as well. I expect general price increases of 3% to 4% per year for the next several years

snip...

I expect ten-year rates to rise from the 4.6% area to the 6% area over the next few years. Of course, once such trends get started, they tend to go further than anyone expects, so rates might in fact carry much higher. Similarly, I expect gold to rise from its current $425 area back towards its old highs in the late 1970's of over $800 per ounce. Once again, such trends, when in place, can carry much further than one might rationally expect. Perhaps gold will reach $1500 to $2000 per ounce over the next decade. We'll see.

Where does all of this speculation leave us? I believe investors should be cautious about buying long-term fixed-income securities unless they intend to hold them for the long term and need the income. If not, cautious investors should buy laddered fixed-income securities with one- to five-year maturities to enable reinvestment at higher rates in the future. Some small gold or gold-mining share hedge might make sense. In a higher inflationary environment, stocks may do better than fixed-income securities for those able to accept the volatility and risk. Real estate may benefit also, but home prices, especially on both coasts, have already risen to somewhat precarious levels. Oil stocks and other commodity producers may benefit, too. Alternative energy plays may have another run. Rapidly growing small companies may do well as they are frequently more flexible and more able to adapt to rapidly changing economic conditions.

So that light you see at the end of the tunnel? Be careful. It may be a train. Don't get run over!


http://www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsletters/2005/03/29/cz_jo_0329soapbox.html

[RawMaterials]

18. Morning Ozy, UIA, 54, and everyone else

Great Toon, I think it about sums it up.

Lets hope today is not as interesting as i could be.

[ozymandius]

23. Good morning all. I want to direct your attention to a new item.

I was asked to include the averages on the day Bush took office. You will find them above the previous day's closing bell figures.

[UpInArms]

25. holy moley, Ozy!

can you 'splain to me again why *Co wants the average working joe/jane to invest in the casino?

[ozymandius]

32. dumb public money

Through my job, I have frequent contact with insiders of public companies, both inside and outside the financial industry. This week, I spoke to an executive at a large publicly-traded technology firm. We talked about the state of his business, the outlook for the future, and the performance of his company’s stock. One issue he is extremely concerned about is the FASB-required expensing of employee stock options, which will become mandatory for all public companies later this year. This new accounting rule will have the effect of making the stock of many companies that are profitable appear far more expensive from a price to earnings ratio perspective, and those companies that have no earnings at all–many of which are tech companies–will become even more unattractive to asset managers like me.

This executive sees one shining beacon in the fog of increasingly strict accounting standards and a difficult business environment: The prospect of Social Security reform. He told me that he and many of this colleagues at other companies favor the creation of private accounts, because a new source of demand for his stock will help compensate for the increasing unattractiveness of his company from an investment perspective. This executive also made it completely clear (albeit in casual, friendly terms–which is perhaps the only way he would have voiced this sentiment at all) that he looked forward to private accounts “picking up the slack” that the new accounting rules and increasingly difficult business conditions in general will create. He did not have to explain this to me. He works at one of thousands of public companies that rely heavily on options grants (which ultimately lead to insider selling as options are converted to common stock) to attract and retain employees. He depends personally on options grants as well; according to SEC filings, in the past few years he has sold tens of millions of dollars of stock converted from options. In the absence of any new source of demand for its stock, his company will have to either increase its buyback of stock in the open market–yes, personal stock he is selling-or, all else being equal, watch as the stock falls and employees like him convert large options grants and sell into a weak market at a lower price.

Make no mistake about it: This executive wants private accounts that invest in the stock market and his stock in particular. He sees private accounts as transferring risk from him to the public–risk, he surely knows, that is already being transferred through instruments such as IRA’s, 401K’s, and the explosion of mutual funds over the past decade. He’s profited handsomely from that transfer of risk. From a corporate perspective he wants that transfer to continue, and from a personal one he needs it to continue to support his lifestyle.

One other short anecdote: This week I also spoke to a former co-worker of mine, who works at one of the largest investment banks in the world. We had a brief conversation about the private accounts issue. Predictably, there was no beating around the bush here; executives of investment banks and brokerages are known for direct, often crass language. He said: “I want that dumb public money coming across my desk.” It’s debatable whether that money would come across HIS desk as well as how much the financial industry in general would benefit from private accounts, but his expectation is clear. And just like my friend at the technology company, my former co-worker is employed by what is considered a “blue chip” company, which would presumably fall under the rubric of “safe” equities in which a private account program would invest.

more...

http://www.proudliberal.thinkingpeace.com/a-bit-about-social-security-reform/

[UpInArms]

34. privatizing gains and socializing the losses

this push has been going on for quite some time - wonder if people will figure it out before they silently allow the continued looting of their pockets?

here's another example of the honesty of brokers:

NASD fines Thomas Weisel Partners $1.75M

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.4274820718-833676394&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The National Association of Securities Dealers announced Wednesday that it has fined Thomas Weisel Partners $1.75 million to settle charges of improper initial public offering allocation practices and for failing to retain e-mails. The NASD said that between 1999 and 2000, the San Francisco-based investment firm received "unusually high commissions" from some institutional clients after allocating IPO shares to those clients. Thomas Weisel Partners neither admitted nor denied the charges in settling the matter.

[Tace]

26. Good Addition To The Page -- It Says A Lot

[UpInArms]

24. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15 S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0.

9:00 S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as futures indications hold steady above fair value... Arguably oversold conditions following broad-based declines that pushed the blue chip indices to two-month lows yesterday has provided a floor of early support for stocks... Meanwhile, chip stocks could be in focus following better than expected Q2 earnings from Micron Technology (MU) while AIG has made headlines after delaying its 10-K filing again

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady as the final read on Q4 GDP remains unchanged at 3.8% while the accompanying chain deflator - a key measure on inflation - checked in slightly higher than expected at 2.3%... Treasurys, which were up slightly ahead of the data remain relatively flat, as yields on the 10-year note hold steady at 4.57%... Accordingly, the cash market still looks to open on an upbeat note

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures market suggesting a higher open for the cash market as investors await a report that may show the economy grew at a faster than anticipated pace last quarter... At 8:30 ET, investors will get a final read on Q4 GDP (consensus 4.0%) and chain deflator (consensus 2.1%)...

Perhaps also contributing to the upside bias has been stable oil prices ($54.20/bbl) ahead of the EIA's weekly inventories report (10:30 ET) and end of the quarter window dressing, as money managers adjust their portfolio holdings today and tomorrow

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The recent breakout below January's low crossing at 1496.50 has opened the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1433.06. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above broken support marked by January's low crossing at 1496.50 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 2.50 pt. at 1479.50 as of 5:42 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above January's low crossing at 1170. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short- term low is in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving crossing at 1183.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below January's low crossing at 1170 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1163.50. The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 pts. at 1172.20 as of 5:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

29. 9:43 EST markets are open (and happy) and blather

Dow 10,452.99 +47.29 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,986.98 +13.10 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,170.89 +5.53 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.588 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 109,840,000
Nasdaq Volume 120,557,000

9:40AM: Market opens higher amid encouraging Q4 economic growth... While the Commerce Dept.'s second and final revision on Q4 GDP was left unchanged at 3.8%, checking in slightly below economists' upwardly revised forecasts of 4.0%, the relatively old data still signaled a strong pace of economic expansion heading into early 2005 and have underpinned a floor of support for stocks following yesterday's sell off...

The GDP chain deflator (inflation measure), however, was revised to a stronger 2.3%, as was the core PCE deflator to 1.7%, but both figures provide little implication for the inflation trend for 2005...

(added blather on edit)

[UpInArms]

31. 10:03 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,452.40 +46.70 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,984.96 +11.08 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,169.96 +4.60 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.585 -0.06 (-0.13%)

NYSE Volume 260,529,000
Nasdaq Volume 251,264,000

10:00AM: Equities remain on the offensive as virtually every sector trades in positive territory... Pacing the way to the upside has been Airline (+3.7%) following an upgrade on AMR Corp (AMR 11.02 +1.09), while a rebound in Steel (+1.8%) has provided a lift to the Materials sector (+0.9%)... Technology has been strong across the board with leadership coming from Software (+0.8%) and Computer Storage (+0.8%) while strength in Drug stocks has helped Health Care (+0.3%)... Even Energy (+0.8%), despite falling oil prices, has also traded higher ahead of the EIA's weekly oil report...

At 10:30 ET, the Energy Dept. will report crude oil inventories (consensus +2.5 mln), gasoline supplies (consensus -1.8 mln) and distillates (consensus -1.5 mln)... DJTA +0.7, DJUA +1.1, SOX +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1839/701, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1726/712

[UpInArms]

37. 10:40 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,481.74 +76.04 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq 1,991.42 +17.54 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 1,173.02 +7.66 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.580 -0.11 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 492,038,000
Nasdaq Volume 444,662,000

10:30AM: Stocks continue to rebound heading into the end of the quarter... With only two days remaining before Q1 comes to a close, end of the quarter window dressing has perhaps contributed to a slight reverse in sentiment amid arguably oversold conditions... However, with more influential economic data forthcoming, such an oversold reflex rally may not be sustainable as the market remains quite fragile to any bad news...NYSE Adv/Dec 2028/815, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1732/893

[UpInArms]

30. Disney climbs after Weinsteins bolt

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8344B954%2DD6E9%2D4D33%2D8003%2D548C06326E1E%7D&siteid=mktw

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - Shares of Walt Disney Co. ticked higher in early trading Wednesday after the entertainment giant severed ties with Miramax co-chiefs Harvey and Bob Weinstein, its second major break with one of its key creative partners.

Disney (DIS: news, chart, profile) shares were up 24 cents at $28.14.

Miramax and Disney said in a joint statement late Tuesday that the Weinstein brothers will leave the specialty film studio after Sept. 30 to create a new company, ending their 12-year relationship with the Mouse house.

Last year, Pixar (PIXR: news, chart, profile) left the Magic Kingdom, ending a lucrative movie distribution deal with Disney.

<snip>

"We find it encouraging that this significant and lingering issue has been finalized quickly after Bob Iger was named incoming CEO . So we see this as one medium-sized issue down, and a few big ones still to settle," Credit Suisse First Boston analyst William Drewry wrote.

...more...

Talent leaves, stock rises? Up is down, down is up :shakeshead:

[Tempest]

33. Prediction: Disney stock will drop by half in the next year

Miramax was a money making arm of Disney.

Now the arm has been cut off.

Disney also lost Pixar in the last year.

[Zynx]

41. I very much doubt that.

A slight drop, probably, but not 50%. Miramax is nowhere near that vital to Disney. The movie business is relatively inconsequential compared to the other segments of Disney's business.

[Tempest]

50. The rest of Disney's businesses are hurting

The only sector of Disney's business making money is the cruise line.

Even though Disney's amusement parks are just now starting to make money, they are still hundreds of millions in the red.

[Zynx]

51. Their 2004 annual report says otherwise.

Parks and Resorts had record revenue and a solid increase in operating income. As for their cash cow, their Media Networks section(ABC, ESPN) they had 2.169 billion in operating income, their best segment. Studio entertainment is by far their weakest section with the worst margins of all four major market segments. Every other business besides studio entertainment seems to be doing just fine.

[UpInArms]

35. The risks from falling home prices

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAAE96FE3%2D9D6B%2D4FC2%2D9B0E%2D70D878DC2486%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- When I interviewed for the job that first brought me to New England in 1994, I met with seven different executives.

Four of them were underwater on their mortgage, meaning that if they had to sell their home in the Boston suburbs, they would have to bring money to the table to pay off their lender because the home had declined in value.

They spent more time talking to me about how nervous the situation was making them, and wondering aloud what might happen next, than they did asking me about my thoughts and feelings for what became my job.

Just over a decade later, in most regions of the country, the idea of people lying awake at night worried about home values seems like ancient history, the stuff of legend.

But that may be about to change.

...more...

[UpInArms]

39. SEC Suspends Qwest's Former Auditor (worked for Arthur Andersen)

http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-qwest-arthur-andersen,0,6295502.story?coll=sns-ap-business-headlines

WASHINGTON -- The Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday suspended the former Arthur Andersen LLP partner in charge of auditing the books of Qwest Communications International Inc.

Mark Iwan, the former partner at the now-defunct firm, is banned from handling audits of publicly traded companies for five years. He was accused of failing in his professional duties during audits from 1999 through 2001 by overlooking signs of what regulators have called a massive financial fraud at the company.

Qwest, based in Denver, was a once high-flying telecommunications company whose fortunes changed in the late 1990s amid excess capacity in the industry. Last year, the company agreed to pay $250 million to settle charges that it used accounting tricks to boost revenue in order to meet overly optimistic revenue projections.

Iwan's license expired in May 2004. As part of the settlement, the former partner agreed to cooperate with the SEC staff. The SEC two weeks ago filed civil charges against former Qwest executives, including Joseph Nacchio, the former chief executive.

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. Judge Sides With Argentina in Debt Case

http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-ny-argentina-bonds,0,5037620.story?coll=sns-ap-business-headlines

NEW YORK -- A U.S. judge sided with Argentina on Tuesday in a dispute over its historic debt restructing plan, but refused to implement his order until a federal appeals court considers the case.

Judge Thomas Griesa of Manhattan lifted a freeze on $7 billion in bonds that had been challenged in court by some creditors. But he stayed his own order until the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals can review it.

<snip>

Lifting the freeze without staying the order would have allowed Argentina to move ahead Friday with the first phase of a bond-swap program that is critical to the country's economic restructuring.

Under the plan, Argentina offered its creditors new bonds worth about 33 cents for each dollar of its old bonds. Argentina defaulted on some $82 billion in bonds after its economy collapsed in December 2001.

<snip>

The challenge was led by NML Capital Ltd., a hedge fund based in the Cayman Islands. NML sued earlier this year after choosing not to take part in the bond swap.

...more...

[nolabels]

44. I don't think NML Capital Ltd has seen diddly yet

The more the capitalist show there inflexibility the more pieces of their puzzle break off, they are par for course and the "told you so" is in the mail.

The more rivets you take out of plane the holier it gets

Whac-A-Mole was always such fun


http://www.pmamusements.com/sport_arcade.html

[UpInArms]

42. SEC Sues Miami Co. Over Alleged Fraud

http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-sec-investor-fraud,0,5688396.story?coll=sns-ap-business-headlines

MIAMI -- The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a lawsuit against a Florida company that investigators say defrauded thousands of investors in Central and South America of millions of dollars.

Pension Fund of America LC of Coral Gables, several affiliates and two top executives were named in the lawsuit filed Monday in U.S. District Court. At the SEC's request, a federal judge ordered the firm's assets frozen and that the company halt allegedly fraudulent practices.

The company allegedly raised about $127 million from more than 3,400 investors using 500 agents overseen by principals Luis Comide and Robert de la Riva.

<snip>

Comide and de la Riva allegedly misappropriated $15 million in investor money for themselves, according to the complaint. They also allegedly forged documents and created unauthorized financial institution seals to make investment certificates seem authentic.

In addition to permanently barring PFA from doing business, the SEC lawsuit seeks civil financial penalties and an order that the defendants give up ill-gotten gains. No criminal charges have been filed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

43. 11:20 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,488.17 +82.47 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 1,994.47 +20.59 (+1.04%)
S&P 500 1,173.52 +8.16 (+0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 4.575 -0.16 (-0.35%)

NYSE Volume 715,396,000
Nasdaq Volume 626,046,000

11:00AM: Market continues to stage a strong recovery effort as oil prices continue to slide following solid oil inventories data... Crude oil inventories rose 5.4 mln barrels, more than double what analysts expected, and distillates fell 1.1 mln barrels, slightly less than expected, keeping the commodity near session lows... Crude oil prices have fallen 2.7% to $52.75/bbl (-$1.48)... But a larger than expected decline of 2.9 mln barrels in gasoline inventories, which have arguably moved into the spotlight as the U.S. embarks on its busiest driving season (i.e. Summer), should not be overlooked...

While plummeting oil prices have been very bullish for stocks, high gas prices prompt concerns about pressure on discretionary spending... NYSE Adv/Dec 2098/878, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1839/889

[MARALE]

45. The Big Picture

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Silver/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?PageId=109&SiteId=0&ArticleId=NS20050328121656TheBigPicture

There are two key inflation numbers to be reported this week.

On Thursday, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator will be reported as part of the Personal Income and Outlays (commonly called spending or consumption) data. This figure represents the monthly increase in prices for the basket of goods purchased that month. It is similar in nature to the Consumer Price Index, but generally runs a bit lower than that index. It is said that it is one of Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's favorite inflation measures.

The table below reflects the trend in this series.
.
--------------- Sep - Oct -Nov -Dec -Jan
PCE Deflator --- 0.1 - 0.2- 0.2 - 0.0 - 0.3

If the February PCE Deflator is 0.3% again, it will be bearish for the stock market. A 0.2% reading would be ambiguous, but not good.
...

The second figure to watch this week comes with the March employment data on Friday. It is the average hourly earnings component. There has been a modest uptrend in wages as the year-over-year increase in hourly earnings was 2.5% in February, up from 1.6% in February of 2004. There was no increase in February, so a 0.3% increase in March would not be at all surprising and wouldn't necessarily signal anything more than a bounce, but it too could also hurt the stock market if it occurred.
.----------------------------- Feb -Jan -Dec -Nov -Oct -Sep
Ave Hourly Earnings % increase 0.0 - 0.3 - 0.2- 0.1 - 0.3- 0.2

The chart below shows via the blue line the steady uptrend in the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings after about a four-year downtrend.

[UpInArms]

47. 10:57 EST numbers and blather (magic numbers everywhere!)

Dow 10,509.74 +104.04 (+1.00%)
Nasdaq 2,000.29 +26.41 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 1,176.46 +11.10 (+0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.567 -0.24 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 890,018,000
Nasdaq Volume 761,867,000

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update as a positive sentiment remains firmly intact... Advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a more than 2 to 1 advantage over decliners... The ratio of up to down volumes, however, suggests an even more bullish bias at both the Big Board and the Composite... While the Dow and S&P have found strong buying interest above secondary resistance levels of 10480 and 1171, respectively, a strong performance on the Nasdaq has yet to push the index through resistance near the psychological 2000 mark... NYSE Adv/Dec 2147/911, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1866/903

[Zynx]

48. Wooohoooo! My stocks are doing well today!

PG and MMC(which I bought about a week and a half ago) up bigtime!

[UpInArms]

49. adding noon blather

12:00PM: Major indices continue to surge midday amid falling oil prices, encouraging economic data and an improving overall sentiment... A 2.4% decline in crude oil prices to $52.95/bbl (-$1.28), following strong inventories data, has eased inflationary pressures ahead of upcoming key economic data... Crude oil inventories rose 5.4 mln barrels (consensus +2.5 mln) and distillates fell only 1.1 mln barrels (consensus -1.5 mln), offsetting a larger than expected 2.9 mln barrel decline in gasoline inventories (consensus -1.8 mln)...

Also providing a floor of support for stocks has been a positive final read on Q4 GDP which, despite being left unchanged at 3.8% versus economists' upwardly revised forecasts of 4.0%, still signaled a strong pace of economic growth... Oversold market conditions following three weeks of declines and end of the quarter window dressing - as money managers adjust their portfolio holdings today and tomorrow - have also underpinned an upbeat bias that has lifted virtually every sector into positive territory... Technology has paced the way higher...

Computer Storage (+2.9%) has led the charge after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of EMC Corp (EMC 12.38 +0.40) while better than expected Q2 earnings from Micron Technology (MU 10.36 +0.24) has provided a boost to Semiconductor (+1.9)... Airline (+5.2%) has provided a huge lift to Transportation after Merrill Lynch upgraded AMR Corp (AMR 10.90 +0.97) while strength in Brokerage, amid a management shake-up at Morgan Stanley (MWD 54.97 +1.36) has helped Financial (+0.7%) gain ground... Even Treasurys have inched higher despite succumbing to modest pressure early on following the unrevised GDP figure...

[UpInArms]

52. Federated CEO Lundgren receives $3.3 mln bonus for 2004

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6B7BEA3A%2D15F5%2D4468%2D84ED%2D20EF870DD59D%7D

CINCINNATI (AP) -- Federated Department Stores Inc. (FD) has given Chief Executive Terry J. Lundgren a $3.3 million bonus for his 2004 performance as head of the retailer which operates Macy's and Bloomingdale's stores.

Federated's board approved the bonus on Friday and it was reported in the company's filing Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The board also approved bonuses for 2004 ranging between $1 million and $1.3 million for five other Federated executives.

Last month, Lundgren directed Federated's $11 billion purchase of St. Louis-based rival May Department Stores Co. (MAY).

The deal would bring together the operator of Macy's and Bloomingdale's with May, known for its Marshall Field's and Lord & Taylor chains, creating a company with nearly 1,000 department stores, $30 billion in annual sales and operations in every state except Alaska. The merger is subject to approval by regulators and shareholders.

<snip>

Federated has declined to say how many jobs will be cut because of the merger or what the company would do in cases where it and May have stores in the same mall. Lundgren has said the company wants to hear what government regulators will have to say about whether, and how many, overlapping stores will have to be closed.

...more...

guess those exec bonuses and perks are better than having employees :eyes:

[UpInArms]

53. Ryder Systems CEO 2004 total pay $3.69 mln, up 79 percent

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDE0FD7CB%2D9AA3%2D4A92%2DAF17%2D13EF86949187%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Ryder System Inc. (R) said Wednesday that Chairman, President and Chief Executive Gregory T. Swienton got total compensation of $3.69 million for 2004, a 79% increase from $2.06 million in 2003.

Both amounts exclude the grant of stock options and restricted stock awards.

According to a definitive proxy filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Miami-based transportation company said Swienton received a total 2004 bonus of $2.8 million, comprised of a $1.11 million bonus and a $1.69 million deferred bonus that was earned under Ryder System's long-term incentive plan.

The company said it paid Swienton a salary of $685,000 in 2004, other annual compensation of $9,612 and "all other compensation" of $193,323.

For 2003, Swienton was paid a total bonus of about $1.42 million comprised of a $616,314 bonus and a $798,855 deferred bonus. His 2003 compensation also consisted of a $633,750 salary, other annual compensation of $2,697 and "all other compensation" of $11,431.

...more...

[nolabels]

63. I don't know why, I work the competition

we have been wiping up the floor with them for the last couple of years

If this a small snapshot of how top heavy corporate structure works, then I can also assume we are getting due for a change. In no way could they rationalize this kind of pay increase for this guy.

Don't matter to me though, I work for the other guys :hide:

[Zynx]

54. Interested in a DU Personal Finance/Investing Group?

Sign up here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3387034

[spotbird]

55. Is this what they call a sucker's rally?

What possible reason could there be?

[UpInArms]

57. Oil, interest rates underpinning rally

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.5726744792-833683088&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, tells MarketWatch that the "market's finally gotten tired of going down," following a string of losses. Underpinning the rally, he said, are interest rates and oil. "We're starting to see oil prices come down a little bit, moderate, stop going up, which is a good thing for the stock market... and interest rates are also moderating after the Fed rate hike." Going forward, he said he thinks oil prices may fall back to the $40- to $50-per-barrel range, which would "lend some support at least to the stock market over the short term." He said it's too early to tell if the stock market is establishing a new floor.

[UpInArms]

58. US Treasuries cling to gains despite muted auction

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8038969

NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices clung to modest gains on Wednesday as month-end buying helped overshadow a muted auction of new U.S. government debt.

The sale of $24 billion in new two-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 3.860 percent. It drew bids for 2.03 times the amount on offer, above February's 1.93 but still below last year's average of 2.2.

Indirect bidders, a class that includes foreign central banks, picked up $7.03 billion, or 29 percent of the issue, below even the meager 31 percent at the last sale. Primary dealers themselves got $15.79 billion of the issue.

...more...

[UpInArms]

65. Bond market dreads strong jobs, wages gain - strategist

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38441.6151972338-833685038&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The worst case scenario for the much-awaited March employment report for the fixed-income market would be jobs growth above 250,000 and a significant gain in hourly wages, according to IDEAglobal bond market strategist Josh Stiles. That combination would trigger concerns about rising labor market costs leading to inflation, he said. The market has been worried about inflation - which dents the value of bonds - since the Federal Reserve issed hawkish rhetoric last week. The March jobs report is due Friday. The MarketWatch forecast is for 221,000 new jobs.

[spotbird]

59. New Consumer Comfort Numbers

ABC News/Washington Post CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

3/27/05 -13

3/20/05 -9

3/13/05 -8

3/6/05 -7

2/27/05 -9

2/20/05 -11

2/13/05 -10

2/6/05 -10

1/30/05 -11

1/23/05 -8

1/16/05 -11

1/9/05 -9

1/2/05 -9

12/26/04 -7

12/19/04 -5

12/12/04 -6

12/5/04 -8

11/28/04 -9

11/21/04 -4

11/14/04 -6

11/7/04 -7

10/31/04 -5

10/24/04 -11

10/17/04 -11

10/10/04 -11

10/3/04 -12

http://pollingreport.com/consumer.htm

[UpInArms]

60. thanks spotbird

here's the picture (I love visuals)

[UpInArms]

61. 2:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,518.40 +112.70 (+1.08%)
Nasdaq 2,000.93 +27.05 (+1.37%)
S&P 500 1,178.86 +13.50 (+1.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.557 -0.34 (-0.74%)

NYSE Volume 1,384,337,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,158,638,000

2:00PM: Stocks continue to trade at sharply higher levels although the recent recovery effort seems to have stalled... Still posting strong gains, however, has been Airline (+4.8%) amid falling oil prices and positive comments out of Merrill Lynch... The broker has upgraded AMR Corp (AMR 10.90 +0.97) to Buy from Neutral after AMR yesterday said Q1 consolidated unit revenue was expected to increase 3.5-4.5% and due to better than expected revenue in its core Dallas/Ft. Worth market... Trading higher in sympathy have been CAL (+7.4%), JBLU (+5.1%), NWAC (+5.0%), DAL (+3.7%) and LUV (+2.7%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2396/822, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1951/1047

1:30PM: Buyers remain in control of the action as gains have been realized across most areas... Treasurys have recently touched session highs following today's bond auction, as the 10-year note is up 4 ticks to yield 4.55%... While the $24 bln 2-year note auction awarded investors 3.860%, indirect bidder participation came in at a decent 30.6%, still reflective of a downtrend since the Fed began hiking rates last June...NYSE Adv/Dec 2347/869, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1942/1015

[UpInArms]

66. 3:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,515.20 +109.50 (+1.05%)
Nasdaq 1,998.90 +25.02 (+1.27%)
S&P 500 1,178.33 +12.97 (+1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.560 -0.31 (-0.68%)

NYSE Volume 1,634,439,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,362,763,000

3:00PM: Buyers remain in control of the action heading into the final hour of trading... Bucking the bullish bias, however, has been the dollar, which has lost some ground against the euro (1.2937) and fallen against the yen (107.49) for the first time in nine sessions after Q4 GDP grew less than anticipated... Profit taking in the greenback had pushed gold to its highest levels in a week before the precious metal closed at $429.50/oz. (+0.2%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2376/883, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1967/1054

2:30PM: Indices back off their best levels, but still show solid gains for the day, as oil futures pare their losses... While crude oil prices remain under pressure, renewed buying interest has lifted the commodity out of its midday trading range ($52.50-53.25) and back above $54/bbl within the last 30 minutes... However, a positive sentiment remains well intact as end of quarter portfolio maneuvering and short-covering activity have arguably provided an additional floor of support for stocks...

The true test will come over the next couple of the days as investors get another feel for inflation trends with the release of Feb Personal Income (consensus +0.4%) and Spending (consensus +0.5%) tomorrow morning (8:30 ET) and the March employment report on Friday...NYSE Adv/Dec 2421/824, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1992/1014

[nolabels]

70. Nice journey back to surface for some fresh air

http://www.subart.net/coming_up.htm

Btw, you land-lubbers, wait till you get out on top deck before you fart again :spray:

[RawMaterials]

72. Closing Number and Blather

Dow 10540.93 +135.23 (+1.30%)
Nasdaq 2005.67 +31.79 (+1.61%)
S&P 500 1181.41 +16.05 (+1.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.558% -0.33

NYSE Volume 2,064,098,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,711,620,000



Close: Bulls rallied behind falling oil prices, encouraging economic data, technology leadership, oversold conditions and an improving overall sentiment to lock in gains of more than 1.0% across the board... The Dow (+1.3%), aided by upticks in 29 of its 30 components, recorded its first triple-digit gain in nearly a month while the Nasdaq (+1.6%) closed above the psychological 2000 mark for the first time in more than a week...

Falling crude oil prices ($53.99 /bbl -$0.24), in the wake of strong inventories data, eased inflationary pressures ahead of tomorrow's Feb Personal Income and Spending report and Friday's March employment report... Crude oil inventories rose 5.4 mln barrels (consensus +2.5 mln) and distillates fell only 1.1 mln barrels (consensus -1.5 mln), offsetting a larger than expected 2.9 mln barrel decline in gasoline inventories (consensus -1.8 mln)... At its lowest levels of the day, oil prices were off as much as 3.2% (or down 9.5% from highs of $57.60/bbl reached just two weeks ago)... Also contributing to the bullish bias was a final read on the Commerce Dept.'s Q4 GDP report which checked in at 3.8%...

While the figure was left unchanged versus economists' higher expectations of 4.0%, that data signaled a pace of economic growth that was not too strong to warrant more aggressive Fed tightening at the FOMC's next meeting (May 3)... With the market arguably being oversold following three weeks of declines and a day that saw the Dow and S&P hit two-month lows and the Nasdaq mimic weakness not seen since last October, renewed buying interest and end of the quarter window dressing created bargain hunting opportunities in virtually every sector...

Information Technology (+1.6%) led the charge in the wake of better than expected Q2 earnings from Micron Technology (MU 10.48 +0.36), as all 10 economic sectors gained more than 1.0%... Strength in Computer Storage (+3.2%), after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of EMC Corp (EMC 12.39 +0.41) with an Overweight rating, coupled with strong gains in Hardware (+2.5%), Software (+2.1%) and Networking (+2.1) also helped technology advance...

Internet Retail (+4.4%) and IT Consulting & Services (+6.8%) - two of this year's Top Ten worst performing groups - were the best performers while Airlines (+2.6%) - another poor performer in 2005 - surged amid falling oil prices and a Merrill Lynch upgrade on AMR Corp (AMR 11.03 +1.10)... Financial (+1.1%), which got a boost amid a management shake-up at Morgan Stanley (MWD 55.28 +1.67), along with Health Care (+1.4%), Materials (+1.4%) and Energy (+1.5%), despite lower oil, were also influential leaders to the upside... Even Treasurys climbed, shrugging off modest selling pressure early on following the unrevised GDP figure, as the 10-year note finished up 4 ticks to yield 4.55%...

Meanwhile, the dollar modestly fell against the euro (1.2923) and weakened against the yen (107.48) for the first time in nine sessions after Q4 GDP grew less than anticipated, lifting gold futures $429.50/oz. (+0.2%) toward their highest levels in a week...NYSE Adv/Dec 2475/808, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2128/945

3:30PM : Market showing no signs of slowing going into the close as the major averages hold on to gains of more than 1.0%... While today's buying interest has been broad-based, many of the day's largest gains have been realized in groups that have underperformed in 2005... To name a few, Internet Retail (+3.7%), IT Consulting & Services (+4.9%) and Airlines (+2.3%) have been three of the Top Ten "worst" performing areas in 2005, falling 35.3%, 31.2% and 13.8%, respectively...

On the flipside, the same had held true earlier for several Oil & Gas sub-sectors, all of which had succumbed to profit taking after gaining an average of 16% over the last three months... That is, before a rebound in oil prices heading into the close renewed buying interest in Energy... XOI +0.8, NYSE Adv/Dec 2393/874, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1946/1091


Have a great rest of the day marketer's :hi:

[UpInArms]

73. don't you find it odd that

the encouraging economic data was merely "old" recycled 3.8% GDP for the 4Q?

How many times have the spinning heads written off those numbers when the markets shrugged?

Something smells funny :eyes:

[plasticsundance]

75. Exactly ...

Not only that, but it actually missed the predicted number of 4.0. Another thing that they're hoping is over looked is that the amount of gas to supply stations is down and demand is up, and that counts more than what is in the oil inventory. The problem lies in production. In addition, OPEC is at the end of its tether for what it can put out.

Remember, news of the oil inventory was supposed to have been an impetus for the rise of the markets today, according to the business news.

The DOW hasn't even recovered from where it was in March 2004. I think. Anyone have the numbers?

[UpInArms]

76. see if this link works for you

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia

you can set the chart up for the time period you want :hi:

[Zynx]

77. The market was dramatically overdue for a bounce on technical

indicators. Such a bounce would have happened in the absence of technical indicators.

[MARALE]

78. I think we will get some bad news this week

They are building up for the fall so it won't be so bad. I hope I am wrong, but the gas did not fall that much and the invetories weren't that great.

:hide: :popcorn: :dilemma:

{had to try the new smilies}