Labour lead drops by five points

[cal04]

Tony Blair will this morning formally ask the Queen to call the long-promised May 5 general election, with only a slim three-point lead over the Conservatives in his back pocket, according to the latest Guardian/ICM poll. The survey shows that the bounce in Labour's fortunes in the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown's popular budget has proved short-lived and the eight-point lead the party enjoyed two weeks ago has been cut to three points now.

It reveals that renewed Conservative campaigning on tax, immigration and law and order, has helped Michael Howard's party to recover lost ground, despite the widely reported shambles over the sacking of the MP Howard Flight for boasting of a "secret" Tory cuts agenda. Labour is now on 37% - down three points since the March Guardian/ICM poll - and the Conservatives are up two points to 34%, with the Liberal Democrats on 21% and others on 8%, both up one.

After seeing the Queen 24 hours later than planned because of the Pope's death, Mr Blair will make his public announcement in south London. Mr Howard and the Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, will also hit the campaign trail. Mr Kennedy, convinced he stands to make gains from both bigger rivals, will be in Labour's northern heartlands.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/election/story/0,15803,1452292,00.html

[Dancing_Dave]

1. So Labour will have to form a coalition Government...

And the Liberal Dem's will only go for it if Tony Blair stands aside.

Serves Teflon Tony right, for his flagrant post-9/11 Chimp worship!

And this Spring, a book about that will be coming out in the UK called "The War on Truth".

The Brits may soon bail out of the Coalition of the Duped!

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. No, the distribution of the votes in constituencies works for Labour

Visit Electoral Calculus. You can put in the national vote percentages for the 3 main parties, and see the likely outcome, based on the distribution of votes at the last general election. With these figures (and no adjustment for tactical voting), Labour still gets an absolute majority of 100. Even with some people using tactical voting to get rid of Labour by any means possible, Labour will almost certainly end up with a majority.

If the Labour majority did get cut a lot, it might encourage Labour MPs to put pressure on Blair to resign early. But for that to happen, the Labour vote must fall still more.

[Frederik]

7. Let's hope

LibDems 05!

[Voltaire99]

2. Out you go, Phony Tony!

It will bring pleasure to see that simpering lickspittle out of office.

Fortunately the Tories seem to have no Thatcher waiting in the wings--just moldy leftovers.

[PeaceProgProsp]

3. Has everyone forgotten how awful Tories are?

What do you think Tories are going to do in Iraq if they win? They're going to use it to transfer a lot of the taxpayer's money to multinational corporations.

Say what you will about Tony Blair, but he is not using Iraq to make the wealthy wealthier.

[Lindacooks]

4. I'm no fan of Tories, but the whole point of the Iraq war

IS to make the wealthy wealthier. And I hate that simpering little poodle.

[Voltaire99]

11. Fortunately...

...the choice is not between Blair and a Tory, is it? The choice is rather between the coalition government Labour is likely to be forced to form with the Liberal Democrats. Blair, the war-making liar, will be jettisoned, as he can be tolerated now only by his diehard partisans.

I don't why you're on about Blair supposedly not helping "to make the wealthy wealthier" by pillaging Iraq--is that a statement about pure intentions, or just an admission of failure to extract oil?

[fujiyama]

6. Step down Tony BL-IAR!

You're leading your party to defeat!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

9. I agree. Blair should step down and give REAL Labour a chance.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

8. My English friend is voting for Michael Howard despite hating Bush

[Frederik]

10. Labour candidate defects to LibDems

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=626531

"In a statement, Mr Wilkinson said: "Until yesterday I was a Labour Party candidate - chosen by Labour to fight the General Election.

"Today, I am announcing that I have left the Labour Party and am joining the Liberal Democrats.

"Like many former Labour voters and activists, I feel angry that Labour have become increasingly authoritarian and failed to safeguard civil liberties.

"They have used the threat of terror to push for house arrest and compulsory ID cards and to justify the illegal war in Iraq.

"Who could have thought that a Labour government would become a lapdog to George Bush's right wing Republican administration?" "

Splendid! LibDems 05!

[xxqqqzme]

12. more 2day in

Independent
"...NOP found that the Tories had not yet convinced people about their strategy of cutting taxes while protecting key public services such as health and education. By a margin of 52 per cent to 41 per cent, people do not believe it is possible to do both...."

Hmmmm, sounds kinda familiar

"...Launching the campaign, Mr Blair will highlight the election as a choice between two different visions for Britain's future offered by Labour and the Tories. He will say that the election should be about that choice and not be seen as a referendum on Labour's record since 1997.

Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, will say in a speech: "The election is not just about who is to govern, but the future direction of the country. In the campaign ahead, Britain will face a fundamental choice that will not only determine the future of the economy but the strength of our society." He will argue that Labour, by delivering eight years of economic stability, has earned the right for a new mandate to tackle the new challenges facing Britain from China and Asia...."

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=626512