Snap election might not decide much (Canada)

[Minstrel Boy]

Conservative 33%
Liberal 27%
NDP 24%
BQ 11%

CBC poll shows snap election might not decide much

TORONTO - If an election were held today, there would be another minority government, likely Conservative, a poll by Environics for CBC News shows.

But a Conservative minority is not a certainty because the poll also shows widespread disillusionment among Canadians with politicians of all parties.

The poll shows that nationally, with undecided voters factored in, the Conservatives are supported by 33 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals by 27 per cent, the New Democratic Party by 24 per cent, and the Green party by two per cent. The Bloc Québécois has 11 per cent support nationally, but that becomes 51 per cent in the province of Quebec.

Donna Dasco, the vice-president of Environics research, said that "what really struck me is the big drop in Liberal support in a very short period."

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/04/14/cbcpoll2050414.html

What really struck me is that it's the NDP which has made the largest gains.

[Maple]

1. Nobody's moving right

They may not normally go NDP, but they'd rather go there than rightwing. :D

I always wondered why the Liberals and NDP didn't merge...could be the 'Liberal Democrats' and do some interesting things.

[Minstrel Boy]

4. The Conservatives have a ceiling and the Liberals have a floor.

The NDP may be the wild card.

"I always wondered why the Liberals and NDP didn't merge"

That's funny - I always wondered why the Liberals and the Conservatives didn't merge. :evilgrin:

[Maple]

5. I've been involved in both

and they are nothing alike, that's why.

They used to be similar, and one was always the default for the other, but not since the advent of the Reform/CA or whatever it's called this week.

[ninty]

2. I'm voting Green

[Maple]

3. Well that'll get you

Harper

[ninty]

8. I don't think so

These polls are so stupid. The election isn't happening this very moment. Thus, opinions on who to vote for would change when there is an election. Not to mention that over half the country doesn't vote, and these polls are phone surveys where there are no consequences for chosing one or the other. Also its not a random sample because if someone isn't home, they won't call back. By chosing someone else, it essentially throws the poll off. In any event, there's no way the conservatives would be voted in.

I'm not going to vote for one party to keep another party out. At least not now.

[Maple]

10. If you don't think so

then you don't understand our first past the post voting system.

[ninty]

19. 0_o whatever you say man

[Massacure]

6. The liberals and NDP could work together to beat the conservatives.

Those poll numbers don't look terribly bad. I doubt there will be an election though. They just had one last year.

[Maple]

7. Yes they could

but they probably won't.

Nobody but the conservatives want an election. The rest of us don't even want to hear about it.

[daleo]

9. I don't think the NDP gains would hold up in an election.

The fear of Harper would rear its head, and strategic voting would probably go to the Liberals.

Nonetheless, I can't recall the NDP polling this high for a long time, so it may be an omen for a watershed event in the near future for the NDP. One is vaguely reminded of Bob Rae's surprising NDP win in Ontario, circa 1990. In that case people were annoyed with the Liberals provincially, but unwilling to go back to the Tories. Result - a surprise NDP win. Perhaps the same scenario is playing out federally.

[Minstrel Boy]

11. It'll be fascinating to watch.

Like you, I'm vaguely reminded of 1990, too.

The Liberals can only scare voters away from the NDP if the NDP can be depicted as nothing but a spoiler. But with the NDP polling this close to the Liberals, they become a legitimate alternative. This could produce a change in perception, and dislodge a number of strategic voters who are philosophically close to the NDP, but vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives.

27/24 could mean we're close to a tipping point.

[daleo]

16. NDP's big advantage here is perception of honesty

Both the Liberals with the current Gomery Inquiry (whatever you think of its actual significance) and the Conservatives with the memory of Mulroney (many people still remember Airbus and all the rest, as well as Mulroney's mysterious $300 K payoff from Karl Heinz Schrieber) are seen as tainted. The NDP is seen as clean, having not been in power federally and having run essentially corruption free governments provincially.

Ontario voters may be reconsidering the Rae NDP, realizing that it had limited freedom to do much during the 90's recession, and they may therefore be cutting that memory some slack. Layton has to be careful not too get sidetracked into what most people consider special interest politics, specifically an over-emphasis on employment equity and the like. I worked for the Ontario government in the 1990's and I think the perception that Rae cared mostly about equity issues hurt him.

Of course Harper and the Conservatives will be hoping for a left-wing vote split, allowing them to come up the middle. But, I think there is just too much distrust of him for that to happen. With the NDP, though, we may be approaching a watershed of sorts. It is still something of a longshot, however.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. "NDP POLLING ITS WEIGHT"

NDP POLLING ITS WEIGHT

April 15, 2005
by Jonathan Montpetit

Not to be outdone by the raft of polls released by its Big Six counterparts, the CBC released its own last night, and the results are surprising. Not because the Liberals are bleeding support or the Tories have surged ahead, but because the NDP is now a contender of sorts. The CBC/Environics survey has the Hill’s resident lefties trailing the Grits by only 3 percent (not counting the margin of error, that is). Earlier polls this week by La Presse and the Globe had Layton’s gang under 20 percent. That makes the NDP the biggest recent winner from the Gomery inquiry. As Paul Hunter’s report on The National explained, the support is partly due to widespread voter dissatisfaction with Canadian politics in general, which translates into more votes for parties like the NDP and the Bloc that are either not thought of as a mainstream governing option or simply aren’t after power in the first place. While that may be the case, the NDP clearly has the chance to become a power broker, as it is looking increasingly likely that the fractured national political mood will lead to another minority government. Layton will have to move quickly to consolidate that support if he wants to become a player. Meanwhile, the Grits will likely resort to the same tactics they used last spring, when they managed to convince voters that a vote for the NDP was a vote for the Tories by virtue of its eating into Liberal support. To counter that, Layton must be ready to articulate a platform that is easily distinguishable from the Liberals, something his party has failed to do in the past. With the government’s recent Kyoto plan criticized by the business and environmental communities alike, the NDP has an opportunity to score some points on an issue where it can easily claim legitimacy. The same goes for areas like education and even health care. If the NDP is not interchangeable with the Liberals policy-wise, then that’s a message Layton has to send out loud and clear—and soon.

http://maisonneuve.org/blog/index.php?itemid=921

[Spazito]

13. If an early election is called, which is becoming more and more

unlikely, the best result would be another minority government, this time with the NDP in the official opposition position with the Libs still holding the government. I don't see the NDP having enough clout to win overall, yet, but if they can gain official opposition status they will position themselves as a credible alternative in the next real election.

I don't want the faux Cons in power, even in a minority position, they can still do a great deal of damage, imo.

[Minstrel Boy]

14. It may sound strange, but I think better would be

an inept and short-lived Conservative minority, with the NDP second and the Liberals third. The Conservatives would face three parties to their left, and would be compelled to make accomodation. And if the NDP are ever to contend for federal government, it first needs to eclipse the Liberals. I think it's poisonous for a democracy when only one party, by default, is seen as a credible government.

My biggest worry for the country is the BQ virtually sweeping the province, leaving little Quebec representation in government. This, plus the unpopularity of the Charest government, will put separation front and centre again in a couple of years.

A snap election, to me, seems increasingly likely.

[Spazito]

15. The danger in that is the NDP and other opposition

holding the faux Cons in check would make them appear as reasonable and Canadians have a history of voting in a majority government after having had a minority one and, if the Cons are seen to be reasonable, they may well receive a majority. The risk, imo, is not worth it.

The BQ, from the latest poll is static, they have not picked up many voters while the Greens in Quebec have picked up votes that have been bled from the Libs.

I agree re the danger to democracy when only one party is seen as being credible and that is why the NDP needs to become the Official Opposition if a snap election were held, it would show they are a credible alternative to the Liberals which is not how they are seen by the majority of voters at this time.

Jack Layton has done a great job in raising the profile of the NDP in a positive sense, imo, and would love to see him replace Harper in Question Period. The Liberals would have a tougher time of it if that were the case, imo.

[Minstrel Boy]

17. There is the Clark example from 1980,

and that's what I would hope/expect to follow upon a Harper minority win. Granted, there's no guarantee. But I think Harper is not terribly convincing at masking his radical intentions, and the lingering Reformatory stink of the party will deter enough voters to prevent a majority.

The Conservatives seem to have hit a ceiling to their support now, when they should be expected to making greater gains from the Liberals' misfortune. That's an encouraging sign.

[Spazito]

18. I agree the Cons seem to have reached a ceiling

and it seems Harper sees it too and the Bloc, too, seems to have a ceiling. That is why, imo, their raucous call for an election seems to have quieted down in the last few days. The media is still howling but that is no surprise given their advertising profits soar during an election.

Re Clark in the 80's, I see that as an anomaly for two reasons. The first being Clark was a surprise winner of the leadership, had Mulroney won in the leadership contest in 76, I suspect Trudeau would not have been returned to power in 1980. The second is the style of leadership of both Harper and Martin, neither have the charisma of Trudeau or Mulroney, like them or not, they did have charismatic appeal to Canadians, imo.