STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 20 April

[ozymandius]

Wednesday April 20, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 276 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 128 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 184 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1242
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 19, 2005

Dow... 10,127.41 +56.16 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq... 1,932.36 +19.44 (+1.02%)
S&P 500... 1,152.78 +6.80 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% -0.05 (-1.08%)
Gold future... 434.40 +5.40 (+1.24%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

WEEKLY CHARTS
The Indices Ran Out of Fuel

DJIA: (4-8-05) If interim support at 10350 continues to hold, and it manages to get back above 10625 it could rally up to channel resistance at 10975. If interim support at 10350 doesn't hold, then it can go all the way down to test support at 9625-9650. (Current) It is on its way to 9650-9625.

SP500: (4-8-05) If interim support at 1165-1160 continues to hold, and it manages to get back above 1210 it could rally up to resistance at 1235 If interim support at the 1165-1160 zone doesn't hold, then it can go all the way down to test support at 1100. (Current) It is on its way to 1100.

NASDAQ: (4-8-05) It needs to get back above 2000 and stay above it, otherwise, we can expect a decline to the 1900-1850 area, and perhaps to 1750. (Current) If support in the 1900-1850 zone doesn't hold, then 1750, ought to be the next downside target.

-cut-

After last week's action, one thing can be said with certainty; the indices ran out of fuel, failed at resistance, and turned back down again!

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[AnneD]

2. Morning marketeers

:donut: LOL love the toon. So, does a lightening strike mean God is trying to jump start Cheney's pacemaker or that he has finally had enough of Dubya. Happy hunting....

[UpInArms]

9. Morning AnneD!

It'll take a bit of :donut: to get through the report this morning :D

:hi:

[AnneD]

59. The Krispy Kremes were a bargin today

:donut: :donut: :donut:

[UpInArms]

61. those Krispy Kremes are going to

need to be a bargain for many many days - each store has to make $52,000 a week just to break even.

Just how many :donut: will it take? :eyes:

[Renew Deal]

203. lol

Finance nerds. :P

[UpInArms]

208. LOL

you called?

[WhiteTara]

218. at $2.00 each...

why that seems to be 60 donuts per minute 24 hours a day each day of the month...sounds grueling!

Oops! I was being over generous...I based that on a MONTH! Yikes in a week...I get dizzy thinking of the action!

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.69 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

CPI – One Last Chance For The Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=781&Itemid=39

EURUSD

The euro continued to extend its rally as US inflation data failed to deliver the blockbuster numbers that the dollar needed to regain its hold over the single currency. We will have to wait for tomorrow's US consumer price index to make a more finalized opinion, but from the way things look right now, if core CPI also surprises to the downside, there is growing likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep raising rates at a "measured" pace. By now, the market has completely priced in rate hikes in quarter point clips for the remainder of the year, to the disappointment of dollar bulls. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, both the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys came in sharply below expectations. With weak domestic growth, high oil prices, uncertainty surrounding the approval of the new constitution, it is not surprising that sentiment within the Eurozone is just as weak. Growth disappointments have essentially become the norm in Europe by now, which explains the euro's ability to reverse its earlier losses after the release of disappointing US economic data. Italian Treasury Official Lorenzo Bini Smaghi who is slated for the vacant seat on the ECB board confirmed our belief that a no vote by the French on the EU constitution will be negative for the euro. He warned that a rejection by the French will significantly hurt the relations among Eurozone nations and could possibly induce a strong slowdown in growth. Today's election of a new Pope has had a minimal impact on the currency markets.

<snip>

USDJPY

The Japanese yen continues to advance against the US dollar on mixed but slightly more positive economic data. This morning's business conditions indices were revised from the previous figures of 20% and 16.7% for the leading and coincident indices, respectively. The final numbers for February are now 18.2% and 30% with a small step down in the outlook regarding the future of the business cycle, but a large positive move in the gauge measuring current conditions. Machine tool orders also showed growth today as they increased 17.1% on an annual basis in March while the previous month saw a year-on-year change of 16.7%. The caveat is that although it is good that this is a continuation of over 2 years of growth, it is still slowing. In other economic news today, the new chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association, Terunobu Maeda, made a statement that he expects deflation to plague Japan for another year or two. At the same time, interest rates will be kept at zero until prices move higher. The next release of the core consumer price index is due out on April 28th in Tokyo and is expected to show a mere 0.1% annual increase.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[RawMaterials]

10. Dollar Is Mixed, Gold Higher in Europe

LONDON (AP) -- The U.S. dollar was mixed Wednesday morning against other major currencies in European trading. Gold prices rose.

The euro was quoted at $1.3039, down from $1.3044 Tuesday.

Other dollar rates compared with late Tuesday included: 106.93 Japanese yen, down from 107.13; 1.1843 Swiss francs, up from 1.1834, and 1.2402 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2421.

The British pound was quoted at $1.9139, down from $1.9157.

Gold traded in London at $432.40 bid per troy ounce, up from $432.13 on Tuesday. In Zurich, the bid price was $432.15, up from $431.65.

Gold rose $5.75 in Hong Kong to close at $432.50.

Silver traded in London at $7.21 bid per troy ounce, unchanged.





http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050420/dollar_gold.html?.v=1

[54anickel]

24. The Dollar Danger

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64605-2005Apr18.html

TREASURY Secretary John W. Snow did his best to sound serious over the weekend about the fault lines in the world economy. He called on China to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, a reform intended to allow the Chinese currency to rise, easing the flood of cheap exports that contributes to the record U.S. trade deficit. At the same time, Mr. Snow promised cuts in the U.S. budget deficit, which would reduce the nation's consumption, including the consumption of imports; Japan and the European Union were urged to promote growth, which would suck in U.S. exports. All of these reforms are intended to bring the nation's trade deficit back toward balance. If they fail, markets may cut the trade deficit in their own blunt way -- via a precipitous collapse of the dollar.

The problem is that nobody believes Mr. Snow's rhetoric. He reiterated the administration's plan to cut the deficit to less than 2 percent of gross domestic product, down from 3.6 percent last year. But this plan leaves out the cost of operations in Iraq and the general war on terrorism, and it assumes no reform of the alternative minimum tax and no rise in federal spending. Using more plausible assumptions, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities expects the budget deficit to hit a low of 2.5 percent in 2010 and then start rising again.

Perhaps because Mr. Snow's budget promises are not credible, the United States has done little to force its international partners to play their parts. European leaders are dragging their feet on pro-growth structural reform, and the chief of the European Central Bank refuses to contemplate lower interest rates, baffling most independent observers. Japan's recovery continues to be weak, and the Japanese conspicuously refused to join the Europeans and the United States in calling on China to change its currency policy. In short, the Bush economic team is failing diplomatically as well as failing to present a plausible budget policy.

bit more...

[UpInArms]

29. Dollar gets a boost from stronger-than-expected CPI

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3646143403-834350868&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar picked up strength against the euro and yen Wednesday after news that consumer prices in March had their biggest increase since August, 2002. The inflationary news kindled hopes that the Federal Reserve will consider a more aggressive interest rates policy. Consumer prices shot up a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month and core prices increased 0.4%. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.5% rise in the headline figure and a 0.2% gain in the core rate. The euro fell to $1.3014 from $1.3046 before the news, while the dollar advanced to 107.27 yen from 106.95 yen beforehand.

:woohoo: look at the buck fly - little do those folks know they're being hung out to dry :eyes:

[UpInArms]

74. Someone must have bought a clue - dollar sinking again

Last trade 83.68 Change -0.08 (-0.10%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.58 Previous Close 83.76

High 84.06 Low 83.52

Last tick: 2005-04-20 10:20:39 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

91. Taking out 83.50 was pretty easy! Next target 83.27

Last trade 83.43 Change -0.33 (-0.39%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.58 Previous Close 83.76

High 84.06 Low 83.40

Last tick: 2005-04-20 11:26:19 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

93. look out below!

[54anickel]

136. Speculation over China yuan revaluation remains strong in Hong Kong - bank

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1113989032-e04a0f08-19665

HONG KONG (AFX) - Speculation remains strong in Hong Kong that Chinese authorities will revalue the yuan in the coming months in the face of continuing pressure from the US and other industrialized nations, said Brian Tsang, head of treasury and chief dealer at Liu Chong Hing Bank. While the discount rates on the one-year yuan non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts eased today in Hong Kong to 4,100 from a recent high of 4,200, many people are still hedging on a possible revaluation of China's currency, he said

"The market has basically priced in investors' expectations of a yuan revaluation although nobody knows when or what move Chinese authorities will take," Tsang said

Between a revaluation of the yuan or a widening of its trading band with the US dollar, Chinese monetary authorities will likely go for the latter as that will be less disruptive to China's financial markets, he said

The one-year NDF, often regarded by most bankers as gauge of the extent of speculation on the yuan, posted a historical deep discount of over 5,000 in September 2003, when speculation on the yuan was at its peak, he said

Another indicator, the aggregate balance in the local banking system has hardly moved with the current level standing at 3.8 bln usd, largely unchanged from its level since last month

more...

[UpInArms]

4. China economy keeps booming

GDP up 9.5% in January-March, matching Q4 pace

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5C3514CA%2D7C61%2D4D9E%2D8F9F%2D3A7EBC86A56E%7D&siteid=mktw

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- China's economic boom continued in the first quarter of 2005, government data showed Wednesday, as January-March growth beat economists' expectations and kept pace with last quarter's expansion even as other data show the government's cooling steps are having some effect.

Gross domestic product rose 9.5% from the same period a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement released in Beijing.

The median forecasts of 11 economist surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 9% increase.

The data provided more evidence that China might have to act further, either by banks' required reserve ratio or raising interest rates again, to achieve the government's target of 8% expansion for 2005. The economy grew 9.5% in all of 2004, as well as in the October-December period.

But other data also released Wednesday showed that the government's steps to data have had some impact.

...more...

(thanks RM :D - not enough coffee to get it right this a.m.)

[RawMaterials]

12. China’s economy expands 9.5% in first quarter

China’s economy expanded a faster-than-expected 9.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, increasing the pressure on the government to continue efforts to restrain fixed asset investment and consider another increase in interest rates

The increase in gross domestic product to Rmb3,140bn ($379bn) exceeded most economists’ expectations for 9 per cent growth in the quarter.

Many economists agree that alarmingly high levels of investment in urban and industrial areas pose a risk to China’s fast-moving economy. Beijing has sought to slow credit and investment growth since last year, in an attempt to ensure more sustainable economic progress.

The country’s top statistical body also reported on Wednesday fixed asset investment in the first three months of the year went up 22.8 per cent to Rmb1,099.8bn, compared with a 43 per cent growth rate in the same period last year.

Zheng Jingping, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said government measures to keep investment growth in check had been working.

“The growth rate is still high but the momentum of investment in fixed assets has been restrained,” said Mr Zheng, who stressed Beijing would continue to keep investment levels controlled by monitoring credit growth and improving land use procedures.

China’s policymakers and economists have been especially concerned about over-investment in certain urban property markets but there is also disagreement over whether there are risks of a bubble in particular cities.

In the first quarter, investment in real estate was up 26.7 per cent. Mr Zheng estimated that, whereas real estate investment accounted for around 12 per cent of total investment in the late 1990s, it now accounts for about a fifth of the total.

“We should encourage people to buy homes for living purposes and not for speculative investment purposes,” he said.

Mr Zheng also mentioned that the country’s supply shortages of coal, electricity and petroleum were still causing problems, as were transportation bottlenecks. The total value-added of industrial enterprises increased 16.2 per cent in the first quarter.

The country’s consumer prices rose a moderate 2.8 per cent in the first three months of this year. Producer prices for manufactured goods, by contrast, went up 5.6 per cent during this period.

Since last year, Beijing has kept a close eye on inflationary pressure. China’s food prices, for instance, have been rising relatively quickly compared with other goods and services. The country’s consumer spending also remained strong, as total retail sales went up 13.7 per cent this past quarter.

China reported an overall trade surplus of US$16.6bn in the first quarter as exports surged 34.9 per cent. Ben Simpfendorfer, a regional economist with JPMorgan Chase, pointed out that the trade surplus figure was unusually high given the first quarter was typically a weak period for exports.

A report by investment bank UBS concluded that, as China’s domestic spending has been slowing and net exports have been rising fast in recent months, any changes to its exchange rate policy will have far-reaching effects.


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/aec4c1c2-b144-11d9-9bfc-00000e2511c8.html

[RawMaterials]

13. Australian Dollar Gains on Optimism Demand From China Will Rise

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar had its biggest gain in more than a week on optimism demand for the nation's commodity exports will increase as China's economy grows.

Australia's dollar has risen 43 percent in the past three years as sales to China tripled, fueled by demand for iron ore and coal. The local dollar began its advance as the price of commodity exports such as copper and gold climbed, with gains accelerating after China's statistics office said growth in the first quarter matched the previous three months at 9.5 percent.

snip..

Denting Demand

An expanding Chinese economy will probably prompt the mainland government to slow growth to curb inflation, which may end up denting demand for commodities and the Australian dollar, said Singapore-based Benjamin Pedley, an investment strategist at LGT Bank in Liechtenstein, a private bank with the equivalent of $46.5 billion, a 10th of which is invested in Asia.

``Metals prices have seen a near-term peak,'' Pedley said. ``The Australian dollar has already seen its peak.''

The currency will fall to 72 cents by year-end, he said. LGT Bank in Liechtenstein has been short the Australian dollar since it traded at 78.5 cents, he said. Shorting is borrowing and selling an asset in anticipation of making a profit by buying back after its price has fallen.

The Reuters-Commodity Research Index of 17 commodities futures rose 2.1 percent yesterday, its first gain in 13 days.

Copper futures for May delivery yesterday rose 2.65 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $1.4715 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest percentage gain since Feb. 17.

Australia is the world's third-largest producer of the metal, which had a 0.81 correlation with the currency in the past year. A reading of 1 suggests the two moved in lock-step.

Australian 10-year bonds advanced for a sixth day in seven. The 6.25 percent bond maturing in April 2015 rose 0.217, or A$2.17 per A$1,000 face amount, to 106.946. Its yield fell 3 basis points to 5.34 percent, a two-month low. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The yield is 1.12 percentage points more than similar-dated U.S. Treasuries, compared with an average 1.24 points in the past year.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=ac4qWOSyAhgQ&refer=australia

[UpInArms]

5. Xybernaut fires CEO, president

Company's auditor resigns, 3 board members offer to quit

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5EAF189C%2DF225%2D43B4%2DB7F5%2DA5E79B06A7CA%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Xybernaut Corp. said Tuesday night it has fired Chief Executive and Chairman Edward Newman, and President and Chief Operating Officer Steven Newman, after an audit committee investigation found numerous irregularities.

Retired Army Gen. William Tuttle was appointed interim chairman and CEO, the company said.

The Newmans are brothers, according to company (XYBRE: news, chart, profile) documents on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

<snip>

Xybernaut said the investigation determined, among other things, that Edward Newman "improperly used substantial company funds for personal expenses and failed properly to substantiate expenses charged to the company."

The committee also determined members of Newman's family employed by the company were hired and evaluated, or not evaluated, in direct violation of its anti-nepotism policy. The family members also constituted a "protected class" of employees, the company said in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

207. perfect graphic

[54anickel]

211. SNARF! Good one...n/t

[AnneD]

212. Dang....

girlfriend, you have a graphic for everything,,,,,cool

[UpInArms]

6. Fannie and Freddie Say Growth Curb Will Reduce Housing Funds

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aEyAW_UM.93M&refer=top_world_news

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will attract less foreign investment into the U.S. housing market should Congress cut the mortgage finance companies' $1.5 trillion loan portfolios, the companies said in statements prepared for testimony today before the Senate Banking Committee.

Washington-based Fannie Mae during the past six years has sold one-third of its long-term, benchmark securities to foreign investors for a total of $158 billion, Fannie Mae interim Chief Executive Daniel Mudd said in a text released by the company.

``It is not at all clear that those foreign investors would place their money in the U.S. housing market without the predictability and convenience'' of debt sales by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Mudd said. The two largest sources of money for U.S. home loans raise money by selling bonds to both U.S. and foreign investors.

Warnings this month from U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that the portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could trigger market instability have prompted lawmakers to consider creating a regulator mandated to cut the mortgage holdings. Congress is weighing creation of a tougher regulator also in response to a total of more than $13 billion in accounting mistakes at the companies since 2003.

Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan this month have called on lawmakers to create an overseer with authority to trim the companies' portfolios, alter capital standards, reject new lines of business, and sell off their assets in the event of default.

...more...

[Wright Patman]

44. ``It is not at all clear

that those foreign investors would place their money in the U.S. housing market without the predictability and convenience'' of debt sales by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Mudd said.

So that means it's about as "clear as Mudd"?

[UpInArms]

7. Today's Reports:

Apr 20	8:30 AM	Core CPI	Mar	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	-	
Apr 20	8:30 AM	CPI		Mar	-	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	-

[UpInArms]

19. reports in: UGLY numbers

U.S. March CPI up 0.6%, core rate up 0.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={D215DDCE-63A6-4757-AF81-3A6266E888DD}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer prices jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in March, with core prices increasing a larger-than-expected 0.4%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Energy, clothing and hotel prices increased during the month, offsetting falling prices for new cars and prescription drugs. It was the largest gain in the core rate since August 2002. The figures were worse than expected by Wall Street economists, who were forecasting a 0.5% rise in the headline CPI and a tame 0.2% gain in the core rate. The consumer price index has risen 3.1% in the past 12 months, compared with 3% last month. Core prices, which exclude food and energy prices, have risen 2.3% in the past 12 months, down from 2.4% a month ago.

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. CPI UP 3.1% Y-O-Y, CORE CPI UP 2.3%

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CPI HOUSING UP 0.5%, MOST IN 4 YRS

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CPI APPAREL UP 0.8%

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CPI ENERGY UP 4%

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CPI UP ON ENERGY, HOTELS, APPAREL

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CORE CPI UP MOST SINCE AUG. 2002

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CORE CPI UP 0.4% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am 04/20/05 U.S. MARCH CPI UP 0.6% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

21. more details: U.S. March CPI increases 0.6%

Core rate rises 0.4%, the biggest increase since Aug. 2002

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B226E2C4A%2D92CD%2D467A%2DB616%2D5202676D2FE0%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

The data will likely reignite a debate on Wall Street and within the councils of the Federal Reserve about inflation. On Tuesday, a relatively tame report on producer prices had laid to rest some of the concerns about accelerating inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on May 3, with analysts expecting an eighth-straight quarter percentage point increase in the federal funds rate to 3%. Markets have been ratcheting back their expectations for aggressive Fed moves this year and had been expecting the FOMC to pause twice in the six remaining meetings of the year.

In March, energy prices jumped 4%, the highest since October. Gasoline prices rose 7.9%.

Food prices rose 0.2%, with higher prices for beef, poultry and vegetables offsetting declines in pork and fruit.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Lodging costs behind CPI surprise, economist says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3700724421-834351293&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Soaring rents for hotel rooms were the biggest surprise in the March consumer price index, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. In a note to clients, Shepherdson said lodging away from home added 0.15 percentage points to the CPI core, which increased a larger-than-expected 0.4% in March. Excluding lodging, the core CPI would have risen 0.25%, close to the consensus expectation of 0.2%. "It is possible that the early Easter explains the March leap -- hotels may have raised rates earlier than usual," Shepherdson said. Still, Shepherdson said, "This looks bad and looks count."

huh?

[spotbird]

26. Wasn't it yesterday that the core

was stable, barely changed at all?

[UpInArms]

30. that was the PPI core

or the Producer Price Index - this is the CPI core - or the Consumer Price Index.

[spotbird]

48. Thanks, I have a lot to learn. nt

[AnneD]

210. At least in this class....

we can pass notes, the subject is interesting, and the instructors are nicer :popcorn:

[54anickel]

28. Wonder what the Beige Book will read like this time

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

snip>

Today’s less predictable report shall be the beige Book report due at 2:00 pm, whose qualitative information from the 12 different Federal Reserve Districts could once again show evidence of inflationary pressures unlike what is communicated in the PPI and the CPI.

Recall that it was last month’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book (March 9) which sent 10-year yields soaring to 5.51% for the first time since July 2004 after the report stated that sharp benefit costs gains were fairly “widespread” and “overall wage gains” were seen moderate but some Fed districts “cited larger gain” in some sectors. The January-February report also noted that some businesses and manufacturers found it easier to raise prices. That Beige Book survey was a blatant departure from previous surveys which prices on the wholesale and retail level to have been largely benign. Thus we doubt it of such pressures would altogether disappear from the latest Beige Book, in which case would convey more hawkishness than the benign PPI and an expectedly tempered CPI.

At any rate, a core CPI of 0.2% or less coupled with a relatively hawkish Beige Book is expected to fail in propping the dollar, mainly because of the emerging evidence of slower growth.

more...

[UpInArms]

8. A Layoff Here, A Job Cut There

http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA526300.html

It may seem like a fairly mild downturn so far, unless you are one of those people that has lost a job within the technology industry sometime since last autumn.

Since last fall, more or less, it became rather apparent even to those with rose-colored eye wear that the semiconductor industry was experiencing something more than just a couple quarters' worth of inventory correction. Within that time there have been a number of layoffs in many sectors of the electronics industry, from contract electronics manufacturers to chipmakers to equipment and materials vendors.

Granted, there haven't been any sweeping axes driving a blood bath à la 2001; no one is laying off thousands of workers at a time. In fact, it seems as if most of these have come about rather quietly; I was surprised by some smaller layoffs I hadn't heard about previously, discovered while researching an unrelated story. After I did some more digging, I was surprised at the number of "little" layoffs, particularly when taken as a whole.

And taken as a whole, I think it is safe to say these job cuts are symptomatic of something deeper and perhaps longer than those pinning their hopes on a general second half recovery would have us believe. Just take a look, and you can judge for yourself.

...more...

[54anickel]

62. To play on the quote of Senator Everett Dirksen -

A layoff here, a job cut there, pretty soon it adds up to a real recession.


"A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money." -
Senator Everett Dirksen
US politician (1896 - 1969)

[UpInArms]

76. Merger-related job cuts skyrocket

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/20/news/economy/challenger_job_cuts/

Acquirers slashed nearly 77,000 jobs in the first quarter, six times the number the prior quarter.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Job cuts from mergers and acquisitions soared in the first quarter, job search firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Wednesday.

Merger-related job cuts jumped to 76,784 in the quarter, nearly six times above the previous quarter and about three times the rate of a year earlier.

And mergers accounted for about 27 percent of all the 287,134 job cuts in the quarter, according to the firm.

The biggest cutting came in the telecom industry, which saw increased M&A activity in the last half of 2004 and the beginning of 2005. Forty-two percent, or 32,380, of the merger-related cuts occurred in telecom, Challenger said.

"Several telecom deals have yet to be finalized, but once they are we can expect to see more fallout, especially since many of these deals were made with the sole purpose of cutting costs," John Challenger, CEO of the firm, said in a statement.

...more...

[54anickel]

86. Heh-heh, and they've just started the Jobs Creation Act repatriating

of bucks that they can use for even MORE M&As.

[UpInArms]

87. Bank of NY CEO says staff cut by more than 200 in 1Q

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.4843053356-834359478&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Bank of New York Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Renyi Wednesday said the company is "maintaining tight control of headcount," and cut staff by more than 200 during the quarter. "Expense control is critical to our performance, and we remain very focused on it," Renyi said in a conference call following the release of the bank's first-quarter results. Shares of Bank of New York (BK) fell 94 cents to $27.68 in Wednesday morning trade.

I didn't see a WARN from this - I guess they dribbled those cuts out a few at a time. :sigh:

[UpInArms]

158. United warns 426 of impending layoffs

http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2005/04/18/daily22.html?jst=b_ln_hl

United Airlines has given layoff notices to 426 employees at a reservations call center in Kent, according to a notice sent to the state Employment Security Department.

The airline earlier this month said 400 employees would lose jobs when the call center closed. The layoffs are effective June 5.

Companies are required by state law to notify the state of impending mass layoffs or plant closures, and to give employees 60 days advance notice of such actions.

The employees and managers were offered relocation to reservation centers in Chicago; Washington, D.C.; Detroit and Honolulu, officials said April 6. The work now done in Kent will be spread around to other centers.

Increased cost for jet fuel, depressed passenger revenues and mounting competition from low-cost carriers were factors in deciding to close the center, the company said.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

11. Citing demand, Mint to produce 24-karat gold coin

WASHINGTON -- The US Mint announced yesterday that it will begin producing a new 24-karat gold bullion coin early next year, hoping to capitalize on growing international demand for purer gold coins

The Mint already produces the 22-karat American Eagle gold bullion coin, and Mint officials estimate the potential global market for 24-karat gold coins at $2.4 billion annually.

This will mark the first time the US Mint has produced a 24-karat gold coin, a designation that means it contains 99.99 percent gold.

The current 22-karat gold coin, on the market since 1986, contains 91.67 percent gold with the rest of the coin made of other alloys.

Global investors in recent years have been turning increasingly to the purer gold coin, although the American Eagle is the best-selling gold coin in North America. The Mint estimated that 60 percent of global gold coin sales are of 24-karat coins, with Canada's Maple Leaf a top seller.

''There is a demand, both here and abroad, for 24-karat gold coins," said the Mint's director, Henrietta Holsman Fore. ''We want to meet this demand by producing the highest quality and most beautiful coins in the world."

Congress authorized the sale of the American Eagle gold coins in December 1985 after President Reagan banned imports of the South African gold Krugerrand. The American Eagle coins went on sale in October 1986.


http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/04/20/citing_demand_mint_to_produce_24_karat_gold_coin/

[Sven77]

27. gold-buggers delight

i bet they'll have to buy if from the IMF.

[RawMaterials]

14. Ford Motor's 1st-Qtr Profit Falls by a Third on Sales Declines

Net income declined to $1.21 billion, or 60 cents a share, from $1.95 billion, or 94 cents a share, in the year-ago period, the Dearborn, Michigan-based company said in a statement today. Excluding some costs, Ford was expected to earn 39 cents a share, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. On that basis, profit was $1.26 billion, or 62 cents.

Ford also deepened cuts in its second-quarter North American production plans to 4.8 percent from a year earlier, from the previous 1.2 percent. The company forecast that second- quarter results, excluding some costs would range from break even to a loss of 15 cents a share.

snip...

GM's Loss

General Motors Corp., the world's biggest automaker, yesterday reported a net loss of $1.1 billion, or $1.95 a share. The company's market share is at an 80-year low.

``What it comes down to for both companies is the need to cut costs: pensions, health-care, benefits,'' Dan Genter, president of Los Angeles-based RNC Genter Capital Management, said in an interview before GM and Ford earnings were released. ``The real financial difficulties revolve around this. If you continue to go down, and you go down for reasons that you possibly escape through bankruptcy -- maybe that's an avenue worth exploring.''

Under Bill Ford, who took over from Jacques Nasser in October 2001, Ford rebounded from combined net losses of $6.4 billion in 2001 and 2002 to a profit of $3.49 billion in 2004. In last year's first quarter, the company reported a profit of $1.95 billion, or 94 cents a share, the highest during his tenure.

Ford eliminated 33,811 jobs, or 9.4 percent of his company's workforce, from 2002 through 2004, according to regulatory filings. The company is making buyout and early-retirement offers to pare another 1,000 U.S. salaried jobs.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aRgLZZ4bMcaM&refer=us

[UpInArms]

15. Mortgage applications down 1.6% last week

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3433874884-834349206&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage applications activity dipped 1.6% in the week ended April 15 on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the prior week, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to buy homes and refinancing applications both decreased by 1.6% on a week-to-week basis. Refinancings accounted for 38.0% of total applications, off from 38.1% a week earlier, while adjustable-rate mortgages slipped to 35.4% from 35.8%. Average contract interest rates for 30- and 15-year mortgages fell last week to 5.83% and 5.40%, respectively, from 5.95% and 5.51% a week earlier. The rate on one-year ARMs averaged 4.22% last week, off from 4.28% in the first week of April, the MBA reported.

[RawMaterials]

16. Is the real estate market cooling?

When housing starts posting their biggest monthly decline in 14 years last month, many are wondering if slowdown in the nation’s red-hot housing market is now emerging.

One part of the country showing some signs of cooling is California. The Golden State’s sizzling real estate market has seen double-digit appreciation rates in most of its metropolitan areas in recent years, and some economists have even warned that the state’s housing market is a bubble waiting to burst, although such an event remains a matter of debate.

snip..

Not because interest rates are rising, but because of property taxes. When you buy a home for $1 million, you’re going to need nearly $1,000 a month just to pay property taxes.

“When people sit down and look how much property taxes will be, and how much they will factor into their budget, it’s starting to have a major impact, especially in the higher-priced housing market,” said Rich McMillen, a Century 21 real estate agent in Ventura County.

It’s worse in states like Connecticut, New Jersey and Rhode Island, which begs the question: States complain about budget constraints, but with record housing sales and record home prices, where’s the property tax windfall?


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7558576/

wonder what the increase in property taxes is going to do to the fixed income population??? I know my parents are now paying more for the property taxes then on the mortgage

[Gregorian]

75. There is no bubble.

If people can't afford the houses, then several things have to happen- interest rates drop, housing prices have to drop, or inflation. That's just my quick top of my head thought. But one thing IS guaranteed, and that is the number of people who need houses is high. The demand is there, even if the money isn't. And since I don't see jobs with incomes to support these prices, and since interest rates cannot drop, I see either lower housing prices, or increased prices for everything we buy. Or both. There can't be a burst. I only see housing prices dropping, as houses sit on the market, unsold. As soon as the price drops low enough, someone with a more expensive house that has sold for less, or someone with cash will buy the house with the lower price tag.

I might add that I'm done with real estate. I never did find my dream. I got close. But as much as I want to continue with my search, there is no way in hell I can even approach what I wanted. So that's one indication of how things will begin. I've been intensely involved with the escalation and availablity for nearly twenty years. And this is it for me. I'm done. I'm also pretty sad. I made money, but I didn't do it for money. I was searching for beauty. But money is more important than beauty in America. Let the prices fall.

[AnneD]

214. Houston in the mid to late 80's

our real estate market collapsed. We had been flush with cash from the oil and gas boom of the late 70's and office space and home prices were beyond many peoples reach. Then the oil bust. We discovered how much we relied on 1 industry. The savings and loans cratered and homes forclosed. There were no jobs. We started getting jobs back in the early 90's but housing didn't start a boom until mid to late 90's. It has been overpriced for the last 5+ years. I want to buy but I will save up and purchase in the upcoming bust.

[Gregorian]

219. Location...

Different areas will be affected in a different way. I have no idea what's happening. Just that rates won't get lower. And incomes are probably not getting higher. BUT, coastal marine influence is king. That's where I've bought and sold. And I doubt the land in those areas will drop much. Or actually, it's so high already, it probably will drop a lot. But it'll still be expensive. I'm talking about 1000 acre ranches. Houses aren't my thing. I've watched the acreages go from unwanted, to highly desireable, in just fifteen years. I'm overwhelmed by the variables in this equation. In fact, I just discovered another "location" during this last move I made- political location. Well, I love real estate, but am pretty ignorant about where it's going to go. I've always been Mr. Magoo. Just stumble into good luck. I wish you luck in your search.

[54anickel]

85. A boom that won't bust?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/20/real_estate/market_hot.reut/index.htm

Executives said the real estate market remained awash in liquidity, with easy financing available and a weak dollar to deliver foreign investors.

They also said despite the run-up in prices, gains have not been uniform and prices in major U.S. cities remained affordable compared to Europe and Asia.

The executives agreed that there has never been a better time to be a seller in U.S. real estate.

snip>

Executives dismissed the idea that weakness in job creation could take the wind out of home prices, which rose 8 percent in 2004.

snip>

Housing shortages and buyer demand have driven a huge number of conversions of apartments to condominiums, Sternlicht said. "It's wacko out there but it's fun, as long as you can get a chair when the music stops," he said.

more...

[UpInArms]

17. An oil slick with traction?

Commentary: It's not time to commit ... yet

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B866C0256%2DE312%2D4C52%2D818D%2DD6E902916931%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

BOULDER, Colo. (MarketWatch) -- Last week I wrote about "cash as a position," and little has changed to alter that opinion.

With a 5% bullet dodged, by way of measuring the S&P's decline since last column, I remain focused on cash, yet ever closer to a good bullish entry.

Many participants feel cash is simply not an option and must always be invested in the market, but when the market inflicts its pain as it did last week -- many anxious players find themselves forced to "wait out" a bad position instead of being liquid, able to seek out more opportune trades.

The emotional and financial stress caused by a 5% loss in just one week can hinder one's ability to remain nimble.

When fears elevate, objectivity tends to get lost and opportunities seem occluded, yet opportunities are developing as we speak. The clouds are lifting nicely -- featuring a roughly 11% drop in oil during the last 11 trading sessions. An equally noteworthy event compared to the broader market weakness last week.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

20. Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Petroleum Report

China's growing appetite for oil, one reason for increased world demand, also appeared unlikely to slow -- its robust economy grew 9.5 percent in the first quarter of 2005.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery was up 46 cents at $52.75 per barrel by afternoon in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Heating oil was up nearly a cent to $1.5000 a gallon, while unleaded gasoline was up half a cent to $1.5750 per gallon.

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, Brent crude June contracts were up 67 cents to $53.61 per barrel.

"Markets are very jumpy across the world, and investors' risk appetite seems to be pulling back," said Alex Scott, an analyst with London's Seven Investment Management.

"We also have the added complication of unpredictability on the supply side having a destabilizing impact," with unforeseen supply disruptions occurring in OPEC countries, Scott said.

At a March meeting in Iran, OPEC increased its production ceiling by 500,000 to 27.5 million barrels a day, and provided for an identical increase if crude prices did not stabilize.

Al Attiyah, speaking in Paris on Wednesday, said OPEC was not likely to implement the optional increase before its next meeting, and hinted that the organization also was unlikely to increase production at its June meeting in Vienna.

"I believe today the market's very, very balanced," he said. "The inventory today is the highest since 2002. So it means there's more oil in the market than we expected."

Al Attiyah also stressed that OPEC members have little room to increase production. "OPEC is almost producing to the maximum," he said. "In a few countries they have spare capacity, but in most member countries they have no spare capacity."

He also indicated that oil prices should ideally be between $40 and $50 a barrel.

snip..

Crude futures have dropped more than $8 over the last two weeks since hitting an intraday high of $58.28 on April 4, but failed to close below the $50 mark last Wednesday, despite rising U.S. crude inventories and increased OPEC production.

U.S. refineries are at near capacity because of rising demand and analysts said unscheduled maintenance at some facilities bolstered the overnight spike.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050420/oil_prices.html?.v=4

[UpInArms]

60. Oil futures open higher on the Nymex

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.4236720718-834355371&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- Energy futures added to gains Wednesday morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange ahead of the weekly U.S. supply data. May crude, which expires at Wednesday's close, rose 41 cents to $52.70 per barrel, while June crude added 23 cents to $53.80 per barrel. May gasoline rose 0.39 cent to $1.574 per gallon, and May heating oil gained 0.79 cent to $1.509 per gallon.

[UpInArms]

64. DOE Petroleum Inventory Report (Oopsie!)

10:31am 04/20/05 DOE: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 1.5 MILLION BARRELS

10:31am 04/20/05 DOE: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES UNCHANGED

10:30am 04/20/05 DOE: U.S. CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 1.8 MILLION BARRELS

[UpInArms]

68. Crude heads higher after U.S. supply data ($54.30 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={424C39CD-A19D-4ABF-A725-C583E5730FE6}&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- Energy futures added to gains Wednesday morning after the Energy Department reported an unexpected drop in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies. Inventories of distillate fuels, including heating oil, were unchanged. May crude rose 1%, or 51 cents, to $52.80 per barrel; June crude gained 1.4%, or 73 cents, to $54.30 per barrel; May gasoline added 0.79 cent to $1.578 per gallon; and May heating oil was up 0.6 cent at $1.499 per gallon.

[UpInArms]

71. API Crude Inventories Report (Crude Number worse than DOE)

10:43am 04/20/05 API: CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 5.4 MILLION BARRELS

10:44am 04/20/05 API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 1.4 MILLION BARRELS

10:44am 04/20/05 API: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES UP 1.1 MILLION BARRELS

[Paulie]

96. Looks like the DOE is a week behind the API

We noticed last week that there was a huge gap. Wouldn't suprise me the DOE has older numbers.

[54anickel]

72. High Energy Prices are here to stay

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

Add to this the simple dynamics of supply and demand, and it is easy to make the case that the recent weak price action in the energy complex is but a temporary downdraft, rather than indicative of a new, more bearish trend for oil, gas, and coal prices. As always in such circumstances, it is best to go back to the basics: total new discoveries have been steadily declining for 40 years, and world consumption has outpaced newfound reserves for nearly a quarter of a century. The global economy today now uses more than four barrels of oil for every new one discovered.

In fact, according to a report by the industry consultants, IHS Energy, only 50 percent of the world's oil production has actually been replaced by new field discoveries. Annual discoveries have now fallen behind total consumption every year for the past 20 years. The consultants reported that all but three of the top-20 non-OPEC producing countries failed to replace their production with new discoveries in the past five- and 10-year periods. Russia and Mexico — the top-two non-OPEC producers, which together accounted for over 12 million barrels of daily production in 2003 — replaced just 11 percent and 10 percent respectively in the past 10 years. The report also shows that the percentage of discovered oil brought into production has steadily risen since 1975, which means that more and more of the legacy of past discoveries is being consumed. In 1975, about 65 percent of total discoveries were in production. Through the end of 2003 that figure had risen to 85 percent of all the oil ever discovered. In total, about 45 percent of all the oil found worldwide had been consumed by the end of 2003, according to the IHS data.

Worst of all, (from an American perspective at least), is that the largest new sources of petroleum are likely to emerge in countries with interests somewhat inimical to those of the US. This is not without historic precedent: In 1970, the seven major international oil companies thought they owned and thus had tied up the huge Middle East reserves beyond the turn of the century. Within five years, the nations there had taken ownership of their own oil - and prices had quadrupled.

Although the presence of 140,000 troops in Iraq makes a 1970s style nationalisation a highly unlikely contingency, most of the major oil producing nations are close to full production capacity, notably Saudi Arabia (now producing oil at close to its maximum sustainable rate of about 10 million barrels per day). Both forecast that in spite of current pledges to increase production and investment in infrastructure further, the Saudis probably are unable to raise their output significantly over the next 20 years while global demand, pushed by significantly higher consumption in the United States, China, and India, is expected to rise by 50%.

On the other hand, notes author Michael Klare, one of the so-called members of the “Axis of Evil”, has significant scope to increase its role as a major swing producer: “Iran has considerable growth potential: it is now producing about 4 million barrels per day, but is thought to be capable of boosting its output by another 3 million barrels or so. Few, if any, other countries possess this potential, so Iran's importance as a producer, already significant, is bound to grow in the years ahead.”

more...

[54anickel]

18. Slow and Easy, Baby (A look at the Fed minutes)

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/FF/2005/FF+April+05.htm

snip>

The minutes were, nonetheless, fantastic reading, in which the FOMC angrily debates whether there are failures in the FOMC’s own communication strategies. Indeed, this set of minutes was the most tortured I’ve read in my almost 25 years of reading such prose.

So, bear with me as I have a little fun, parodying back to Captain Greenspan and his merry band, as Luke was fond of doing. But first, here’s the bottom line: The Fed ain’t gonna be hiking in 50 basis point clips. What is more, the Fed probably has only two or three more 25 basis point shots left, taking the nominal Fed funds rate into the 3%-3.5% zone, generating a real Fed funds rate in the 0.5%-1.0% zone.

snip>

Which brings us to the minutes of the March 22 FOMC released on Tuesday, which revealed that the FOMC had stiffened its definition of what constitutes “balanced,” with some FOMC members wanting to simply ditch the balance-of-risks assessment altogether. That didn’t happen, but an unholy compromise was agreed: risks would be declared “balanced” if the FOMC simultaneously declared that such balance was dependent upon “appropriate” monetary policy.

Well, “Gollleeee!”, as Gomer Pyle used to say: If the FOMC does the “appropriate” thing, then risks will be balanced! Taken to its logical conclusion, this implies that the FOMC henceforth should – and will – always declare the balance-of-risks to be balanced, because to declare them to be unbalanced would be tantamount to declaring that the FOMC is running – or is planning to run – an inappropriate monetary policy.

Thus, the balance-of-risks assessment has been neutered: rather than being a guide post for we the markets to assess whether the FOMC needs to adjust policy, it has now become a platitude for the FOMC’s commitment to act appropriately.

snip>

It Depends Upon What You Mean By “Measured”

Irony of ironies, the FOMC did get both more explicit and less explicit at the same time, in its minutes regarding the definition of “measured.” It means whatever they want it to mean! More specifically, the FOMC declared that the word “measured” did not “rule out either picking up the pace of firming or pausing in the process of removing policy accommodation should circumstances warrant.”

more...

[UpInArms]

22. the dollar's jumping on the rise in Core CPI

guess those forex traders still think that the Fed will raise rates - silly them - they don't understand the "balance" :eyes:

[54anickel]

43. They're letting the Fed yank their chain. Hey, this is way out there, but

here's a thought. :tinfoilhat: :shrug:

A lot of folks believe these reports are being manipulated anyway. Do you suppose they are letting just a wee bit of truth out in these numbers to get the forex and bond markets to move, hence alleviating Greenspin's conundrum?

I mean, let's face it - the buck needs to be a bit higher to survive a move by China on their peg. And Greenspin has to get the bond vigilantes to move or he'll be looking at inverted rates. So let a little bit of inflation shine through, he's got the new definition of "balance" to hide behind now.

[UpInArms]

46. there you go, thinking like me again

:tinfoilhat:

[54anickel]

54. Heh-heh. Let's go for a walk down memory lane to Greenspin's first

year on the job. JMHO, but he's been blowing bubbles for 17+ years now in his attempt to put off payin' the fiddler and the necessary cleansing effect of boom and bust cycles. Each time he extends the party, the mess for the cleaning crew just gets bigger.

This was the birth of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT) and Greenspin's ever increasing reliance on the derivative markets for liquidity. Do you think he's experiencing daja vu?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/blackm/span.htm

snip>

"I think we're playing it on a day-to-day basis," Greenspan told his colleagues. "And in a crisis environment, I suspect we shouldn't really focus on longer-term policy questions until we get beyond this immediate period of chaos."

snip>

The biggest weapon in the Fed's arsenal was an unlimited bankroll of cash, which early on Tuesday the central bank committed: "The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system," said an announcement issued in Washington in Greenspan's name.

snip>

From the Fed's point of view, maintaining liquidity was the key to containing the damage from the crash. For instance, investors and securities firms needed to borrow huge amounts to meet obligations, such as margin calls and capital requirements. Corrigan, in his calls, assured the banks and financial firms that the Fed would supply enough cash to make sure there was no liquidity squeeze.

snip>

As late as the following January, Greenspan was still sufficiently worried about the possibility of another "sudden hit" to the markets that he reduced the Fed's target for overnight interest rates one more time, a reminder that the central bank stood ready to supply the cash the economy needed. That move annoyed a number of other Fed officials, who felt it was a mistake.

Today many economists believe that the stock market crash was indeed "a remarkable blessing," scary as it was at the time. It relieved a great many pressures that had built up in the U.S. economy that might have forced the Fed to raise interest rates so high that it would have caused an economic slump.

more...



So, are the dips still buying opportunities? I dunno :shrug: But it's interesting to compare Greenspin's "liquidy crisis" battle to the actions of the bankers in '29

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/invmgmt/ch7/mktwarn.htm
Why Worry?
Before the Crash of 1929, investors weren't fazed by volatility

snip>

By early 1929, volatility was so commonplace that some investors were more lulled than alarmed whenever it appeared. Prices declined in late March of that year, as the Fed indicated it wouldn't extend credit for speculative purposes. Then a consortium of banks announced it would provide $20 million in brokers' loans. This prompted a rally that carried into April, but prices fell once again in May, bottoming at Dow 292 on the afternoon of May 27. In early June, the market exploded, rising to 334 by month's end, and going on to 348 by the end of July. A month later, it was at 380, with 400 in sight. Overall, the thrust was up. In less than two years the market, as measured by the Dow, had come close to doubling, with most of the action coming toward the end of that stretch. The DJIA closed on September 5 at 370, after sliding from its peak of 382 reached that morning. From the May 27 low to the September 5 high, less than three and a half months, the market had risen more than 30%.

Consider what might have gone through the minds of those who sold their stocks anywhere along the way, especially during the corrections.

How would you have felt? Stupid, probably, and determined not to repeat your mistake. The Crash came the next month. The morning of Black Thursday, October 24, the market fell from 306 to 273, but then recovered as a bankers' consortium sent NYSE Vice President Richard Whitney to the floor to place orders for key stocks above their quotations. The "big boys" had saved the day. The market rallied, closing at a shade below 300. Try to put what you know happened next out of your mind, and ask yourself whether you would have bought or sold. Remember, there had been crashes before during the bull market, and always the market had bounced back. That October, the news was good, the economic outlook fine.

The market ended at 301 on Friday, and dipped to 299 on Saturday. On Monday prices collapsed to 261. The Wall Street Journal called what had happened a panic, but said those who owned stock outright rather than on margin should remain confident. "They have lost a few tail feathers but in time they will grow again, longer and more luxurious than the old ones." Counseled the New York Times: "The investor who purchases securities at this time with the discrimination that as always is a condition of prudent investing may do so with confidence." These words were read on the morning of October 29, "Black Tuesday," when the market plunged to end at Dow 230 on volume of 16.4 million shares.

What would you have done then? Would you have recalled the Babson prediction and remained on the sidelines? Or was this a buying opportunity?

The next day, stocks rallied to close at 258, almost wiping out the losses suffered on Tuesday, and in the rally that followed, the Dow ended on April 14 at 294. By then, Babson had come out with another recommendation. This time, he urged investors to buy, a prediction that didn't make the history books. A year later, Dow was at 168, and on April 14, 1932, it closed at 63. By then, market followers were able to recognize the bubble that had been created in 1928-29. Isn't hindsight grand?

[54anickel]

80. That was short-lived

Last trade 83.56 Change -0.20 (-0.24%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.58 Previous Close 83.76

High 84.06 Low 83.52

Last tick: 2005-04-20 10:44:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

83. check out this lying spin!

Dollar dips on drop in energy supply
Stronger-than-expected CPI news loses its impact

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9BD35E26%2DBECC%2D4B53%2D8AF0%2DCD74CAB86D6F%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar gave up its initial gains in late morning trade Wednesday after news of an unexpected drop in U.S crude and gas supplies reignited worries about an economic soft phase.

Earlier in the session the dollar advanced after an unexpectedly strong March consumer prices report stoked dollar proponents' hopes that the Federal Reserve could switch to a more hawkish interest rates policy.

...more...

from my post #74

Last trade 83.68 Change -0.08 (-0.10%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.58 Previous Close 83.76

High 84.06 Low 83.52

Last tick: 2005-04-20 10:20:39 ET

The inventories were not reported until 10:30 EST - my post shows the drop prior to that - the whoring press better get a clue that we (and many others) are not so stupid - there are way to watch and record the truth and they need to STFU with the and get to the truth.

:argh:
:banghead:
:rant:

[54anickel]

88. So we're supposed to believe they are clairvoyant? WTF IS going on

with the buck? I mean, besides reality setting in....
Think they are beginning to price in the effect of either a move by China on the peg OR the effects of the tariffs we'll slap against them? :shrug:

[UpInArms]

92. and the lack of bullets

in the Fed's gun?

Maybe someone peeked and saw that they were only blanks - i.e. verbal intervention?

[54anickel]

98. I've heard rumors of a new analyst on the floor

[KoKo]

139. Yep....that's him... Spotted him in the background on CNBC....

:D

[54anickel]

153. Hey KoKo! Good to "see" you again!...n/t

[KoKo]

178. Whew! Took me all day to read latest Mogambo rant. Post#150 is for you!

regarding our mattress liner raids on Linens n' Things lately. :D

:hi:

[UpInArms]

23. J.P. Morgan earns fall to $2.3 billion

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B59DE06B4%2D985B%2D4120%2DB75B%2D18BE53BF0DC0%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - JP Morgan Chase, working to digest its $58 billion acquisition of Bank One, on Wednesday reported a 25% decline in net income when combining the two banks results last year.

The bank reported net income of $2.3 billion, or 63 cents a share, down from $3.03 billion, or 84 cents a share, from the same period last year on a combined basis.

Included in the most recent quarter's results were a $90 million, or 3 cents a share, merger-related charge, a $505 million gain from its private equity unit, a $243 million charge in wholesale allowance and $544 million loss in the bank's Treasury portfolio.

The bank (JPM: news, chart, profile) also took a $558 million charge for its settlement of a class action stemming from the bank's relationship with WorldCom. See full story.

Excluding the charge, earnings would have been $2.9 billion or 81 cents a share.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Piper Jaffray earns decline, miss expectations

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.343522581-834349219&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Piper Jaffray Companies (PJC) reported first-quarter earnings of $7.3 million, or 38 cents a share, down from $13.8 million, or 71 cents a share in the same period a year ago, hurt by lower institutional sales and trading results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had been expecting earnings of 64 cents a share, on average. Revenue fell 12% to $187.7 million, due primarily to weakness in principal transactions and investment banking revenue. The brokerage services company's stock closed Tuesday up 4 cents at $35.89.

Markets will probably focus on Intel - me? I'm waiting to see how they jicked their inventory numbers this time. :think:

[UpInArms]

31. Treasurys drop after stronger-than-expected CPI

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3604779514-834350592&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys fell, pushing yields higher, after news that core consumer prices in March registered the largest increase since August, 2002. U.S. consumer prices jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month and core prices increased 0.4%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.5% increase in the headline figure and a 0.2 rise for the core rate, which strips out food and energy. The yield on the 10-year bond rose to 4.29% from 4.22% before the news.

[54anickel]

32. BEST OF MOGAMBO GURU (Sort of the Readers Digest version)

http://www.investmentrarities.com/bestofmg.htm

- Reuters reports that Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has again urged Congress to take steps to curb the growth of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying this "was vital to cut the risks the mortgage finance giants pose to the U.S. financial system." Hahahaha! The guy who made all the money available to create these mortgage giants and create all these debts now figures that that they "pose a threat"? Where in the hell has he been for the last freaking decade?

But how to do this? Who is going to pick up almost a trillion dollar's of mortgage debt? The article says "In testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Banking Committee, Greenspan said stiffer regulation alone was not enough to ease, and could worsen, the risks the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) pose." My God! If regulation will not do it, then what in the hell is left?

Reuters also reports that last Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, who has been more than instrumental in our government amassing the most debt per year, both nominal-wise and percentage of GDP-wise, wants to get his two stupid cents into the mix and said, "Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could threaten the economy if Congress fails to curb their investment activities."

Hell, they should leave the investment activities alone, and start homing in on the fraud and corruption in Fannie Mae! According to Dan Gainor, writing an essay entitled "Fannie Mae's Bailout Tab" writes in the Washington Times, "Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage association, has been battling a mounting scandal since last year. It has accounting errors of about $11 billion. That's more than nineteenfold Enron's $567 million error." Wow! Nineteen times bigger!

more...

[Wright Patman]

40. "Government-sponsored" corruption

is okay.

Enron was pretty close to the government, but could never gain its coveted sponsorship.

[UpInArms]

33. Clorox reaches IRS settlement sooner than expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3613754977-834350649&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Clorox Company (CLX) on Wednesday said it reached a quicker-than-expected tax settlement with the Internal Revenue Service under which it'll pay an additional $150 million to resolve issues related to its investment in a limited partnership investment fund. The household products maker already paid $78 million in March. Separately, Clorox said it'll repatriate approximately $200 million of foreign earnings under the provisions of the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004. In 2005, the company expects the combined impact of these two activities to reduce tax expense by approximately $14 million. In fiscal year 2006, Clorox anticipates these activities to increase tax expense by approximately $4 million. Shares rose 82 cents to $64.80 on Tuesday.

more jobs created :rofl:

[AnneD]

63. sounds like a white wash job to me

talk about airing the dirty corp laundry in public :rofl:

[UpInArms]

34. Monsanto cooperating with Illinois AG subpoena

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3597028704-834350536&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Monsanto Co. (MON) said Wednesday it's cooperating with the Illinois Attorney General's subpoena in an investigation into the herbicide and seed maker's pricing and licensing of genetically modified seeds. "The issues and background sought are similar to requests raised in various contexts by others in the past," Monsanto said. "We firmly believe that Monsanto has and continues to compete fairly," the company said. Shares rose $1.07 Tuesday to $59.50.

[UpInArms]

35. Sonoco profit falls 4.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3687765162-834351219&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Sonoco Products Inc. (SON) said Wednesday first-quarter earnings fell to $37 million, or 37 cents a share, from $38.6 million, or 39 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Excluding items, earnings would have been 40 cents a share, or a penny ahead of analysts' average view, according to Thomson First Call. Sales for the three months ended March 27 advanced to $814.4 million from $695.4 million a year ago. For the second quarter, the Hartsville, S.C., packaging maker forecast earnings at 41 to 43 cents a share, or below analysts' view for 46 cents a share. The company's stock added 34 cents to close at $27.37 Tuesday.

[UpInArms]

36. Caterpillar's earns crush estimates as sales top $8.3B

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.367569838-834351142&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Caterpillar Inc. reported first-quarter earnings Wednesday of $581 million, or $1.63 a share, up from $420 million, or $1.19 a share in the year-ago quarter. Sales leapt to $8.34 billion from $6.48 billion in the 2004 first quarter. The average analyst estimates from Thomson First Call was for earnings of $1.36 and revenue of $7.3 billion at the agricultural and construction equipment maker. Caterpillar lifted its earnings and sales forecast, respectively, by 16%-18% and 35%-40%. Shares rose $1.37 to $84.95 Tuesday.

gotta have more bulldozers to clear up the rubble in Iraq and Afghanistan!

[RawMaterials]

37. Seven Reasons Why the Bears Might Be Right

The stock market is poised at one of those very scary inflection points.

From here, it could fall another 3% on the Dow Jones Industrial Average or another 8% on the Nasdaq Composite. Or it could rally back to its March highs for a gain of 8% on the Dow or 13% on the Nasdaq.

Which will it be? Lower prices and more gloom? Higher prices and smiles?

snip..

Count the Reasons
Let me lay out the case for believing that the stock market will fall further. (My colleague Jon Markman will lay out the bullish case in his SuperModels column tomorrow.)

1.
Technically, the stock market has broken down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now below its January 2005 low of 10,369 and has broken through both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With that major support for the index behind it, the next resting place is the October 2004 low at 9,750. The picture over at the technology-laden Nasdaq market is just about the same: The Nasdaq Composite is well below the Jan. 24 low of 2,009 and below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. There's decent support for the Nasdaq Composite at the September 2004 low at 1,879 and very solid support at the Aug. 12 low of 1,752.

2.
Stocks haven't rallied on a decline in oil prices. And oil prices are more likely to tick upward than downward in the next couple of weeks. The flow of oil news has been almost uniformly positive of late, which has helped push oil prices lower. The news flow in coming weeks, however, seems full of the kind of uncertainty that makes prices move up again. With so much oil in countries with unstable politics, it's just a matter of time before some news item raises the oil market's anxiety level again. For example, the Venezuelan government has decreed that private oil companies will have to sign new contracts that give the state-run oil company a majority share of all oil projects. The government has also said that oil companies aren't paying enough in income taxes.

3.
Forecasts of economic growth just keep edging downward. In some cases, the lower growth is a result of a weaker dollar raising the price and therefore depressing demand for a country's exports. So, for example, on April 14, the Bank of Canada lowered its forecast for growth in Canada's gross domestic product to 2.6% in 2005, down from 2.8% in its January forecast. In other countries, the culprit seems to be higher energy prices that are taking a toll on growth. On April 13, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for European economic growth to 1.6% in 2005, down from 1.8%, and for Japanese economic growth to 0.8% in 2005, down from 2.6%.

4.
The already frightening U.S. trade deficit will increase. With growth in the U.S. outstripping that in any of the other economies of the developed world, there is almost no chance that the U.S. trade deficit will fall, even if the dollar weakens further. Because the U.S. economy is growing, U.S. consumers and businesses are buying; because Japan and Europe are barely growing, buying in those economies isn't likely to increase much even if U.S. goods get cheaper thanks to a weak dollar (and a strong yen and euro). A rising trade deficit -- along with a continued lack of progress on reducing the U.S. budget deficit and on reducing the coming Social Security and Medicare shortfalls -- will keep the credit markets on edge. And that's never good for stocks.

5.
The Federal Reserve will deliver more interest rate increases. Investors got a one-day reversal in the stock market last week when the release of the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve showed that the U.S. central bank wasn't thinking of raising rates in aggressive 50-basis-point jumps. But the minutes showed no wavering in the determination of Alan Greenspan and friends to raise rates in more gentle 25-basis-point lumps. Higher interest rates are still coming inexorably, just not as quickly as some investors had feared.

6.
Technology earnings continue to disappoint. Latest case in point: IBM (IBM:NYSE - news - research), which on April 14 reported earnings of 84 cents a share, well below the 90 cents a share expected by Wall Street analysts. Revenue for the first quarter of 2005 climbed just 1% from the first quarter of 2004 after factoring out the boost from a weak dollar. With technology stocks in an earnings slump and financial stocks depressed by the prospect of rising interest rates, the stock market can't count on much from the sectors that usually lead market rallies.

7.
The sectors that had been leading the market in 2005, energy and transportation to name two, are in the midst of a correction. This is absolutely normal in any rally -- and this decline will help build the floor for the next leg up in these sectors. But it certainly doesn't help the tone of the overall market. It's one thing to have IBM or Wal-Mart Stores (WMT:NYSE - news - research) going down when Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE - news - research) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI:NYSE - news - research) are climbing. It's quite something else -- and very unsettling to the market as a whole -- to have recent leaders falling along with the laggards.


The Pain Isn't Over
Maybe last week's punishment was enough to shake out the weak hands and set up the next rally in what I still believe continues to be a range-bound stock market. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 3.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6% and the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 3.3%. And the week did finish, after all, with three days of 100-point losses or more for the Dow. Volume picked up into the close on Friday, always a good sign on a down day if you're looking for the Big Washout that marks the end of a stock market decline.

But my best guess is that we're not there yet. I think we'll need at least another week with a failed rally -- to suck in the last optimists -- and then another stretch of a few down days -- to spit them out again -- before this market decline is ready to call it quits.

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/funds/jubak/10218475.html

[UpInArms]

39. Inflation pressure seems to be cooling off: economist

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3769896412-834351859&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There is some evidence that inflation pressures are easing, despite the rise in the March CPI, according to Tim McGee, chief economist at U.S. Trust Corp. The rise in the March CPI "is consistent with the idea that we have had about a year and a half of rising pipeline pressures that have slowly worked their way down to the final stage of consumer prices," McGee said. But already, there is some evidence that these inflation pressures "are starting to cool off," he said. "The leading indicators of inflation seemed to have flattened out," he said, pointing to core PPI crude goods prices.






:rofl:

IOW: Don't believe your lying eyes!

[RawMaterials]

51. Inflation Surge Is Biggest in Five Months

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent in March, the biggest inflation surge in five months, as the costs of energy, clothing and airline fares all rose sharply.

The Labor Department said last month's increase in the Consumer Price Index, the most closely watched inflation gauge, followed a 0.4 percent rise in February and left consumer inflation rising at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the first three months of this year. That was a full percentage point above the 3.3 percent rise in prices for all of 2004.

The new report showed that even outside of food and energy, there were significant price pressures last month. The so-called core rate of inflation rose by a worrisome 0.4 percent in March, the largest jump in 2 1/2 years and double what economists had expected. It reflected higher prices for clothing, hotel rooms, airline tickets and medical care.

snip..

Economists said the new inflation report was likely to raise worries at the Federal Reserve because of price pressures becoming evident outside of the energy area. The Fed has been raising interest rates at a gradual pace of small quarter-point moves since June of last year.

The higher inflation pressures are coming at a time when a number of reports in recent weeks have shown economic weakness, from a disappointing employment rise in March to lower-than-expected retail sales.

"We are getting slower growth and higher inflation numbers. The Fed is caught," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "The Fed would like to keep interest rates low to keep the economy moving but on the other hand they have to fight against inflation."

snip..
The 0.4 percent rise in the prices outside of food and energy in March followed a 0.3 percent increase in February, which had been the first uptick from four straight months of more moderate 0.2 percent gains in the core inflation rate.

So far this year, the core rate for consumer prices are rising at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the first three months of the year, the fastest quarterly inflation spurt for core prices since the summer of 2001. For all of last year, core inflation rose by just 2.2 percent.

For March, energy costs shot up 4 percent, the biggest one-month gain since a similar 4 percent rise last October. Gasoline prices climbed 7.9 percent, reflecting the shock motorists have gotten at the pump. There should be a further jump for April given that motorists nationwide are now paying an average of $2.28 per gallon.

Food costs rose by a more moderate 0.2 percent in March, following an even smaller 0.1 percent gain in February. Price declines for pork and fresh fruits helped to moderate price increases for beef, poultry and vegetables.

Outside of energy and food, clothing costs, which had been declining, jumped 0.8 percent in March, the biggest one-month gain in 12 months.

Airline ticket prices rose by 2.7 percent, the largest increase in nearly four years. Airlines have been raising ticket prices to cope with soaring fuel costs.

The costs of hotel and motel rooms shot up 3.9 percent in March, the biggest increase on record.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050420/economy.html?.v=7

[spotbird]

56. Guess it depends on your perspective.

Is up down or down up?

[ozymandius]

41. pre-open blather

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0.

Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.0.

Futures trade recovers nicely, again pointing to a higher open for the cash market, as the market returns its focus to a slew of strong earnings reports... Most recently, Caterpillar (CAT) has handily beaten forecasts and raised its FY05 sales and EPS outlook while better than expected results and increased guidance have also come from the likes of General Dynamics (GD) and Wyeth (WYE)

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4.

Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

Futures trade pulls back amid disappointing CPI data, and now suggest a mixed open for the indices... CPI report checks in above consensus, with total CPI up 0.6% and core CPI up 0.4%... Treasurys have also sold off amid rising inflationary pressures, as the 10-yr note extends early losses and is now down 21 ticks yielding 4.29%

[Cerridwen]

42. Thank you so much for doing this every single day.

It is a huge help to those of us who don't have the knowledge or resources to keep up on our own.

I normally don't post because I don't like to interrupt the flow of posts here and I have absolutely nothing of worth to contribute to this conversation, but this morning I just had to tell all the folks here how much I appreciate your work on the daily Stock Market Watch threads.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who comes and lurks here each morning to see how the U.S. and world economies are impacting us all. You provide an extremely valuable service!

Thank you!



:yourock:

Coffee and donuts all around.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

[AnneD]

78. Amen

This is the site I go to first and check on all day long. I marvel at the info I get every day...you guys rock

[Gregorian]

82. That is SO true. Thanks guys!

Like LBN, it's where I go if I want the quick and dirty lowdown.

[ozymandius]

103. You're welcome and thank you.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

45. Funding the War (with your taxpayer dollars)

(and making those profit margins look so freakin' grand)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.378596794-834352057&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Lockheed Martin (LMT) said Wednesday that it has received a contract worth roughly $90 million from the U.S. Army for continued production of the Hellfire air-to-ground missile. The stock closed Tuesday at $58.70, down 54 cents.

can't have those stock prices falling :eyes:

[UpInArms]

47. DoD or FAA?

Raytheon gets $57 mln contract from FAA

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.3868754514-834352645&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Raytheon (RTN) won Wednesday a $57 million contract from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the continued deployment of an air traffic control system known as STARS, which is currently in service with the FAA and the Department of Defense (DoD). The contract allows for the production and deployment of 14 new Stars systems for the FAA, and DoD, as well as logistics and support activities. On Tuesday, Raytheon shares rose 0.1% to $36.96.

wonder how much of that was DoD?

[54anickel]

57. Heh-heh, for some reason I don't think the ingredients labeling rule-

where they are required to list ingredients from largest to smallest percentage used - applies. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

49. General Dynamics 1Q Profit Up 25 Percent

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/04/20/ap1959933.html

Defense contractor General Dynamics Corp. on Wednesday said its first-quarter earnings grew 25 percent to easily surpass Wall Street expectations, carried higher by improved results in its aircraft division.

Quarterly income jumped to $336 million, or $1.66 per share, from $269 million, or $1.34 per share, in the year-ago period. Income from continuing operations amounted to $1.72 per share, topping the mean estimate of $1.53 per share from analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

Net sales increased 4 percent to $4.82 billion from $4.65 billion a year earlier, but missed analysts' view for revenue of $4.93 billion.

Revenue from its aerospace division totaled $753 million, up 24 percent from $606 million last year, as information systems and technology revenue expanded by 7 percent to reach $1.75 billion.

Meanwhile, marine systems revenue was 6 percent lower at $1.21 billion. Sales of combat vehicles were $1.06 billion, a decrease of 1 percent from the year before.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. 9:36 EST markets are open

Dow 10,169.53 +42.12 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,941.96 +9.60 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,152.96 +0.18 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271 +0.68 (+1.62%)

NYSE Volume 72,121,000
Nasdaq Volume 109,186,000

WHEE!

[benburch]

52. Early gains all but gone.

CPI jumped.

[UpInArms]

53. 9:58 EST numbers and some blather (what happened to the joy joy?)

Dow 10,118.18 -9.23 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,931.57 -0.79 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,148.34 -4.44 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.261 +0.58 (+1.38%)

NYSE Volume 243,167,000
Nasdaq Volume 294,574,00

9:40AM: Stocks open higher, as the market embraces better than expected Q1 earnings amid revived inflation fears... Sixteen of this morning's 23 S&P companies out with results have beaten analysts' forecasts, in the wake of Intel's (INTC 23.18 +0.55) strong report last night... However, with the core rate on March CPI up an unexpected 0.4% - double what economists had anticipated - inflation fears remain on the front burner...

So far, the market has shown strong follow through, perhaps also in light of yesterday's favorable core-PPI reading, but rising bond yields - as the 10-year note is still off 12 ticks yielding 4.26% - have arguably minimized gains across the board...

[54anickel]

58. Hey, come on now. It was mainly just a rise in Hotel costs due to

ahh, ummm, the early Easter holiday this year. Yeah, that's it - Hotel's raised their rates in March instead of April because Easter was early this year. That's the ticket! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

55. Accounting Firm (KPMG) Settles Xerox Scandal

http://www.wlns.com/Global/story.asp?S=3234422&nav=0RbQYsMR

One of the largest accounting firms is paying 22.5 million dollars over its alleged role in a bookkeeping scandal at Xerox. KPMG has made a deal with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which said the firm had allowed Xerox to manipulate its accounting so it could close a 3 billion dollar "gap" in its books.

Xerox reached its own settlement with regulators 3 years ago. KPMG is neither admitting nor denying wrongdoing and notes that the SEC has dismissed all fraud-related charges against the company, and did not find its conduct to be fraudulent or reckless. At the same time, the accounting firm has agreed to make a series of reforms to prevent future violations of securities laws.

...very short newsblurb...

I am so glad that they are going to prevent "future" violations - I feel so much better about all those reports :sarcasm:

[naderzenithnow]

65. Yikes! Oil, gas! Capitulation?

[UpInArms]

66. 10:33 EST locking in the numbers before the cRude shock

Dow 10,136.72 +9.31 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,936.36 +4.00 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,150.44 -2.34 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.252 +0.49 (+1.17%)

NYSE Volume 487,563,000
Nasdaq Volume 543,553,000

10:00AM: Equities now on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Interest-rate sensitive sectors like Financial (-0.6%) and Utility (-0.6%) have been hardest hit amid a sell off in the Treasury market... Even defensive-minded groups like Consumer Staples (-0.5%) and Health Care (-0.3%) have been under pressure while a stronger dollar has weighed on Materials (-0.5%) and Energy (-0.6%)... Technology (+0.5%), however, has been strong following better than expected Q1 results and upside guidance from the likes of INTC and YHOO...

Separately, the Energy Dept. will report weekly crude oil inventories (consensus +1.4 mln), gasoline supplies (consensus -275K) and distillates (consensus +450K) at 10:30 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 947/1454, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1027/1354

what will happen when they realize that the crude inventories fell, instead of gained?

(edited for html)

[UpInArms]

67. updating blather

10:30AM: Blue chip indices continue to fluctuate around the unchanged mark in the face of rising price pressures... In contrast to Tuesday's encouraging core-PPI figure, which mitigated inflation fears, today's higher than expected 0.4% rise in core-CPI - a better gauge of underlying inflation - has reignited the possibility that the Fed may raise rates at a faster than measured pace (i.e. in 50 bp increments)... The overall March CPI was up 0.6% (consensus +0.5%), the largest increase since last October...

Now, the market will be looking to the Fed's Beige Book report (out at 14:00 ET) for further data on inflationary conditions...NYSE Adv/Dec 864 /1954, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1064/1536

[naderzenithnow]

69. How long can a Caterpillar making money mostly abroad hold down a fort?

Not very long I think.

[UpInArms]

70. Cooper Tire profit sinks 78% (or "What's up with that PPI number?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEA60088B%2D8291%2D4620%2D8E54%2DADFFFE9F3204%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. said first-quarter profit plunged 78% due to soaring raw material prices and a strike in Texarkana.

Shares of the Findlay, Ohio-based company (CTB: news, chart, profile) turned slightly higher in early trading, up 6 cents at $17.03.

Cooper Tire said its net income fell to $5.2 million, or 7 cents a share, from $24.3 million, or 32 cents a share. Sales, however, rose 7% to $514 million on improved pricing and product mix.

The tire maker lost 1 cent a share from continuing operations, including the impact of the strike, against a Thomson First Call broker forecast of a loss of 2 cents a share.

<snip>

Raw material costs reduced North American operating profit by $26 million vs. a year ago, Cooper said.

...more...

I thought they said that Core PPI was tame - silly me, thinking the numbers reflected the cost of goods necessary for production :eyes:

[UpInArms]

73. SEC to begin informal probe of Doral Financial

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.4492443056-834357208&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Doral Financial (DRL) said Wednesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission has launched an informal investigation regarding the company's intent to restate its financial results.

Doral to restate certain financial reports

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D89IJ0S80.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

APR. 19 12:23 P.M. ET Doral Financial Corp. said Tuesday that it will restate certain financial reports, adjusting results by up to $435 million, and delay issuing first-quarter earnings because of errors in its valuation of certain securities.

The company's shares fell 65 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $16.27 in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

The San Juan, Puerto Rico-based mortgage banking firm said it incorrectly calculated the value of certain floating rate interest-only strips. These securities' cash flows come from the monthly interest payments received from a mortgage pool.

As a result, Doral plans to restate earnings to make after-tax adjustments of between $290 million and $435 million between 2000 and 2004. The company said it does not yet know how the adjustments will be allocated among periods.

...more...

$290 to $435 Million!

[UpInArms]

77. 11:07 EST numbers and blather (markets having ecstacy attack)

Dow 10,179.14 +51.73 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,942.87 +10.51 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,154.91 +2.13 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.243 +0.40 (+0.95%)

NYSE Volume 699,539,000
Nasdaq Volume 720,745,000

11:00AM: Market shows resilience despite a recent spike in oil prices to session highs following EIA data... Within the last 30 minutes, crude oil futures have surpassed $53/bbl (+$0.71) while gasoline futures have surged 2% to $1.59/gal, after the Energy Dept. reported an unexpected draw of 1.8 mln barrels in weekly crude oil inventories, versus an expected build of 1.4 mln barrels, and a larger than expected decline in gasoline inventories, which fell 1.5 mln barrels versus an anticipated fall of 275K barrels...

Taking full advantage of the data, however, has been Energy (+0.4%) which, until a recent pull back in the commodity, had temporarily surpassed Technology (+0.6%) as the best performing S&P economic sector... NYSE Adv/Dec 1098/1837, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1120/1626

[UpInArms]

79. Linen 'n Things shares rise despite wider loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B67499EA5%2DCEE6%2D477C%2D801B%2DDEC621993E49%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Home-accessories retailer Linen 'n Things Inc. shares were able to shake off a deeper fiscal first-quarter loss Wednesday to start the session in positive territory.

Clifton, N.J.-based Linen 'n Things (LIN: news, chart, profile) shares climbed 2.5%, or 60 cents, to $24.90 amid a choppy session in the broader markets and among other retail stocks.

Losses at the retailer increased to $4.1 million, or 9 cents a share, from a loss of $1.1 million, or 2 cents a share last year. That was a penny ahead of the average estimate of analysts reporting to Thomson/First Call.

Sales climbed 3.3% to $570.9 million during the period but sales at stores open longer than a year - an important industry measure - dropped 5.4%. Last year, the company posted sales of $552.8 million. During the quarter, the company opened eight new stores and closed one.

"Although the external environment was challenging, we are still disappointed in our first-quarter sales performance," Chief Executive Norman Axelrod said in the earnings release.

...more...

Now that's a stock pick :sarcasm:

[KoKo]

150. Mattress liners with hidden pockets are really Hot items these days!

for all us folks who keep filling our plastic baggies with our coins and loose paper and stuffing them around our bed preparing....

And for those who find the bulges and bumps uncomfortable to sleep on there's always those nifty "underbed" storage box thingy's that "Linens n' Things" keeps in stock. :D

[54anickel]

183. Heh-hee! I find those bulges and bumps very comforting these days.

:toast:

[UpInArms]

81. Drugmaker wins in stock fraud lawsuit

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20050420-9999-1b20dura.html

(regarding yesterday's court ruling)

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20050420-9999-1b20dura.html

WASHINGTON – In a ruling involving a former San Diego company that could affect anyone who buys or sells stocks, the Supreme Court yesterday refused to weaken the requirements for proving securities fraud.

The court's unanimous decision in the case of former San Diego drug company Dura Pharmaceuticals clears up a division that had emerged among federal circuit courts on the standard of proof that investors should meet when seeking damages from major corporations.

And it could mean that investors filing other suits – such as those hoping to recover damages after the collapse of Enron Corp. – could have a harder time in court.

<snip>

The plaintiffs, a group of investors who claimed they were victimized by Dura's misrepresentations about its stock, considered the ruling a partial victory for them because the justices did not raise the standard for proving securities fraud.

...more...

[UpInArms]

84. Ex-Knight trader to pay $4 mln in fraud case

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.4767045255-834358985&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Former Knight Securities trader Joseph Leighton will pay the NASD and the Securities and Exchange Commission more than $4 million to settle charges he reaped about $41 million in profits stemming from fraudulent trades. The NASD is also barring Leighton, who neither admitted nor denied the charges, from the securities industry for life. The SEC and NASD are also charging Knight's former CEO with failing to properly supervise Leighton's trades. Shares of Knight Trading Group Inc. (NITE) fell 76 cents to $8.49 recently.

:wow: What a GREAT DEAL! Forced to retire and enjoy the $37 Million - no jail time, no real difficulty - just a little tap of $4 million

:argh:

[Tace]

89. Sell A Bag Of Weed And Get 20 Years

[54anickel]

90. Americans robbed blind by inflationary theft

http://www.showmenews.com/2005/Apr/20050414Comm002.asp

snip>

Governments, of course, don’t go bankrupt. They usually resort to inflating the currency. That not only cheats the creditors by paying them off with dollars that won’t buy much, but it also robs the people of their earnings and their savings. Our government, in cahoots with the Federal Reserve System, has been systematically inflating the currency for years.

snip>

Now, most modern politicians being liars, they are always trying to cover their tracks. They want you to focus on the monthly figures, which are reasonably low. What they don’t tell you is that inflation is cumulative. The sum of low annual rates added together equals a large loss of purchasing power.

snip>

I’ve always been puzzled about why so many Americans are so easily satisfied by their politicians. I suppose it’s a combination of low IQs, inadequate education and naturally trusting nature, further helped by incessant distractions and entertainment.

The American people deserve a sound currency that keeps its value. They deserve a frugal government that will not burden future generations with debts for things long ago consumed. Thomas Jefferson said that no government debt should extend beyond 20 years, generally considered one generation.

The American people are being screwed, blued and tattooed by the politicians in Washington, and most don’t even know it. They are suffocated by the incessant amount of fertilizer poured on them by the overpaid, overperked, overpensioned politicians who have voted themselves into the top 5 percent of income. Public servants, my foot.

more...

[UpInArms]

94. 12:12 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,149.36 +21.95 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,939.48 +7.12 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,151.43 -1.35 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.260 +0.57 (+1.36%)

NYSE Volume 964,129,000
Nasdaq Volume 944,265,000

12:00PM: Market still struggles to gain much traction midday, as participants continue to juggle better than expected earnings with an unexpected rise in inflation... With 16 of this morning's 23 S&P companies beating analysts' forecasts, Q1 operating earnings for the S&P 500 in aggregate could now rise above 10%, versus expectations of about 7-8% just a few weeks ago...

In addition to strong Q1 earnings and upside guidance from Intel (INTC 23.26 +0.63) and Yahoo (YHOO 34.99 +1.77) last night, Caterpillar (CAT 89.42 +4.47) has handily beaten forecasts and raised its FY05 outlook while fellow Dow components JP Morgan (JPM 35.75 +0.80), Altria (MO 64.41 +0.29) and United Technologies (UTX 101.01 +2.74) have also been notable surprises... But while concerns about slowing profit growth have eased, today's disappointing CPI data has underpinned a sense of caution for investors as 7 out of 10 economic sectors remain under pressure...

Core CPI for March was up 0.4% (consensus +0.2%), trumping mitigated inflation fears following yesterday's favorable core-PPI reading and leaving the market on edge with the possibility of more aggressive Fed tightening (i.e. raising rates by 50 bp increments)... Materials (-0.5%) has paced the way to the downside, arguably as a result of profit taking and dollar strengthening... The greenback has gained ground against the yen due in part to impressive Q1 growth of 9.5% in China... Interest-rate sensitive sectors like Financial (-0.4%) and Utility (-0.4%) have been weak amid a sell off in the Treasury market, as the benchmark 10-year note is off 12 ticks yielding 4.25% following the stronger than expected rise in core CPI reading...

[54anickel]

102. 12:52 and it's become the red sea again.

Dow 10,107.54 -19.87 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,931.67 -0.69 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,147.04 -5.74 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.258% +0.06
NYSE Volume 1,102,079,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,073,393,000

12:30PM: More of the same, as the major averages continue to drift sideways... Meanwhile, Airline (-1.3%) has been in focus amid reports suggesting that US Airways and America West (AWA 4.49 -0.32) are in advanced merger talks to create a low-cost rival to Southwest (LUV 14.62 -0.23)... But since both air carriers are short on liquidity, many analysts believe any such combination - which would form the nation's sixth largest airline if consummated - is still a long ways away...
Two bright spots within the group, however, have been AMR Corp (AMR 10.79 +0.63) and Continental Airlines (CAL 12.31 +0.16), after reporting narrower than expected Q1 losses...NYSE Adv/Dec 1263/1874, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1299/1621

[54anickel]

95. A big, fat, over-valued asset (Mogambo - full rant)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/apr202005.html

snip>

Mr. Volcker could have stopped after he told us that our problems were intractable, as they are. There is nothing that can be done, because if there WAS something that could be done, someone would have done it, and nobody in all of recorded history has ever come close. Of course, this does not mean that the Fed and the Congress will not TRY to do something, like all the rest of the brain-dead bozos in history have tried when their asinine spending excesses got to this point. And what will they try? It will be, as if you had to be told, more of the same thing that got us into this mess! Hahahaha! More money and credit and deficit-spending! Hahahaha! What idiots! And we elected them! Hahahaha! So WE'RE the idiots! Hahahaha!

snip>

But we had started out talking about how there were suddenly a lot of guys who were saying that something significant has changed. Another one is Doug Noland who wrote in his Credit Bubble Bulletin at PrudentBear.com that "In short, Risk markets are under increasing stress, the goliath leveraged speculating community is not making money – at best – and the derivative players must now be studying their risk exposure and questioning their risk assumptions and models. The Speculative Bubble in Risk has been pierced."


If you want another example, then here is Richard Russell, he of the Dow Theory Letter, who says "There's something BIG coming up in the markets and in the US economy during the months ahead. If you look at the market action, if you listen to 'the language of the market,' you can almost taste it."


Even Paul Krugman, a Leftist Loser with whom I seldom agree, is also growing alarmed. He writes, "What few seem to have noticed, however, is that a mild form of stagflation -rising inflation in an economy still well short of full employment - has already arrived. I shouldn't overstate the case: we're not back to the economic misery of the 1970's. But the fact that we're already experiencing mild stagflation means that there will be no good options if something else goes wrong." If something goes wrong? Hahahaha! See? I told you he was a loser! What in the hell could possibly go right? Name another stagflation episode, anywhere in the world and anytime in history, where things "went right".

He even alludes to the fact that our economic mess is, as he again quotes Paul Volcker, who seems to get a lot of mileage out of his every utterance, whereas all I ever get is people shouting "Shut up! Shut up! Shut up!', that our problems are "intractable." Mr. Krugman says, making a joke of it, "How do we get out of this bind? As the old joke goes, I wouldn't start from here." And so, for once, I DO agree with Mr. Krugman, which just goes to show you how weird things are getting to be! Since there is no escape from our economic problems, the time to "get out of this bind" was a long, long time ago, before it started.

more...

[UpInArms]

97. Delaware Supremes Rebuff Black, Hollinger Inc.

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/departments/business/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000891623

CHICAGO The Delaware Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld a 2004 court ruling that found Conrad Black had "persistently and seriously" violated his fiduciary duties to Hollinger International, the Chicago Sun-Times parent company he once headed.

In its ruling, the state high court also rejected Black's contention that he had no duty to support the so-called "strategic process" in which the financially strapped Hollinger International shed some of it properties, including the Daily Telegraph of London. Black had appealed a Feb. 26, 2004 ruling by Delaware Chancery Court Judge Leo Strine that blocked him from selling his controlling stake in Hollinger International to the Barclay brothers of Britain.

The Supreme Court also rejected an appeal of Strine's ruling by Hollinger Inc., the holding company controlled by Black that owns a 17% equity and 67% voting interest in Hollinger International.

...more...

[Spazito]

135. Black's holding company Ravelston files for bankruptcy protection

Ravelston files for protection


Conrad Black's storied private holding company, Ravelston, has filed for bankruptcy protection from its creditors, a move that signals the jet-setting press baron is running out of financial resources.

According to an affidavit filed by Lord Black's long-time deputy, Peter White, in Ontario Superior Court yesterday, Ravelston Corp. Ltd. and a subsidiary, Ravelston Management Inc., are seeking protection under the Company Creditors Arrangement Act because they are "insolvent" and faced with "an immediate financial crisis."

The court is set to hear the application Wednesday.

Mr. White said Ravelston has been drained of cash because it no longer receives multimillion-dollar management fees from its subsidiaries Hollinger Inc. and Chicago-based newspaper operator Hollinger International Inc.

more

http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050420.wxravelston20/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business


( I love EVERY article that details the comedown of Black, he so deserves everything that is coming to him!)

[ozymandius]

99. 12:51 numbers

Dow
10,113.15
-14.26
(-0.14%)

Nasdaq
1,932.63
+0.27
(+0.01%)

S&P 500
1,147.88
-4.90
(-0.43%)

10-Yr Bond
4.257%
+0.05

NYSE Volume
1,102,079,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,073,393,000

[ozymandius]

101. with blather

12:30PM: More of the same, as the major averages continue to drift sideways... Meanwhile, Airline (-1.3%) has been in focus amid reports suggesting that US Airways and America West (AWA 4.49 -0.32) are in advanced merger talks to create a low-cost rival to Southwest (LUV 14.62 -0.23)... But since both air carriers are short on liquidity, many analysts believe any such combination - which would form the nation's sixth largest airline if consummated - is still a long ways away...

Two bright spots within the group, however, have been AMR Corp (AMR 10.79 +0.63) and Continental Airlines (CAL 12.31 +0.16), after reporting narrower than expected Q1 losses...NYSE Adv/Dec 1263/1874, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1299/1621

[54anickel]

105. Notice the recurring theme today?

They seem to be saying, "Yeah, it's bad but not as bad as expected, so it's really a good thing" as they attempt to illuminate the blue-light. :crazy:

[ozymandius]

117. We've seen this movie before.

Never anymore believable in the remake.

[UpInArms]

100. U.S. assault on tobacco cash derailed

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF689F4AD%2DD443%2D4F8D%2D9383%2D9E605D5C5B99%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- In another blow to the Justice Department's legal case against the tobacco industry, a federal appeals court has declined to rehear a decision that barred the government from seizing $280 billion in allegedly ill-gotten gains from the sale of cigarettes.

Shares of the two largest tobacco companies edged higher immediately after the news Wednesday. Reynolds American (RAI: news, chart, profile) was up 35 cents to $78.30, but Altria (MO: news, chart, profile) , the parent of Philip Morris, later dipped 13 cents to $63.99.

...a bit more...

would hate to see the "activist judges" try to enforce the laws :eyes:

[UpInArms]

104. J&J's Heart Drug: Jolted Again (GACK! throw those pills away!)

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/apr2005/nf20050420_2729_db035.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

Another blow for Johnson & Johnson's heart-treatment drug Natrecor: On Apr. 19 a paper published in the most recent issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association details a possible link between taking the drug and a higher death rate, even though it's designed to treat heart failure.

The paper analyzed three studies involving 862 heart disease patients. The findings: Those taking Natrecor were 80% more likely to die within a month than patients taking other drugs such as diuretics. While the finding wasn't statistically significant -- meaning the studies weren't large enough to definitively prove that a problem exists -- the results raised new questions about the drug's efficacy.

"I don't think this drug should be pulled," says Dr. Jonathan Sackner-Bernstein, director of clinical research at the Heart Failure & Cardiomyopathy Center at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, N.Y., and co-author of the paper. "But this is an important signal that there is potential harm with the drug."

...more...

Wonder if J&J funds Dr. Jonathan Sackner-Bernstein :eyes:

[54anickel]

106. 80% isn't "statistically significant"?...eom

[UpInArms]

107. S&P may downgrade Knight Ridder credit following review

(funding all those stock buybacks seems to be costly :eyes: )

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.535555787-834364808&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's said it was reviewing Knight Ridder Inc.'s (KRI) credit ratings for possible downgrades, citing the $127 million increase in the newspaper publisher's debt levels during the first quarter, which reflects in part the funding of a stock buyback program. The current long-term credit rating is A and the short-term short-term rating is A-1. S&P believes any downgrade resulting from the review would likely be limited to one notch. The stock was last down 44 cents at $63.76.

[UpInArms]

108. Fed's Ferguson's head spins 360 degrees while spewing split pea soup

Reduction of U.S. current account gap can be smooth: Fed's Ferguson
But Fed ready to act should adjustment prove disruptive

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B480612E9%2DEC75%2D4919%2D8F40%2DED6E78B32510%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The wringing of hands in the financial press about the growing U.S. current account deficit is overdone, said Federal Reserve vice-chairman Roger Ferguson.

"My sense is that the implications of current account adjustment for U.S. economic growth and inflation will most likely be benign," Ferguson said in a speech prepared for delivery at the University of North Carolina.

"Of course, should adjustment prove disruptive to sustainable growth and stable prices, the Federal Reserve will certainly be prepared to act," he said.

Ferguson is an important voice in the international debate over the U.S. current account deficit. He briefed the G7 central bankers and finance ministers about the risks facing the global economy at their meeting last Saturday in Washington.

Many observers believe the growth trajectory of the U.S. current account deficit are unsustainable, and are worried about how the adjustment might occur. Of particular concern would be a sudden decline in the dollar as part of any sharp adjustment.

...more...

[54anickel]

110. Huh? What do you suppose the hidden meaning is in this statement

Ferguson said the private market, not government policy, will be the critical factor for any adjustment.

He said that many market factors could occur without sharp changes in exchange rates, interest rates or asset prices.

[UpInArms]

111. "private market" or pirate market?

Didn't you just love the jab at the cause of the problem?

Ferguson said the current account deficit might actually be the result of an American success story - the surge in U.S. productivity growth in the late 1990s.

Ah, the ever more powerful Clenis!

[54anickel]

116. That line is just regurgitating Chopper Ben's spin on the issue

snip>

From about 1996 to early 2000, equity prices played a key equilibrating role in international financial markets. The development and adoption of new technologies and rising productivity in the United States--together with the country's long-standing advantages such as low political risk, strong property rights, and a good regulatory environment--made the U.S. economy exceptionally attractive to international investors during that period. Consequently, capital flowed rapidly into the United States, helping to fuel large appreciations in stock prices and in the value of the dollar. Stock indexes rose in other industrial countries as well, although stock-market capitalization per capita is significantly lower in those countries than in the United States.

The current account positions of the industrial countries adjusted endogenously to these changes in financial market conditions. I will focus here on the case of the United States, which bore the bulk of the adjustment. From the trade perspective, higher stock-market wealth increased the willingness of U.S. consumers to spend on goods and services, including large quantities of imports, while the strong dollar made U.S. imports cheap (in terms of dollars) and exports expensive (in terms of foreign currencies), creating a rising trade imbalance. From the saving-investment perspective, the U.S. current account deficit rose as capital investment increased (spurred by perceived profit opportunities) at the same time that the rapid increase in household wealth and expectations of future income gains reduced U.S. residents' perceived need to save. Thus the rapid increase in the U.S. current account deficit between 1996 and 2000 was fueled to a significant extent both by increased global saving and the greater interest on the part of foreigners in investing in the United States.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200503102/default.htm

[ozymandius]

121. He is abdicating responsibility for the Fed's poor judgement.

That is a CYA statement if ever there were one.

[54anickel]

123. Seems there are a lot of CYA statements coming from the Fed these days n/t

[54anickel]

109. Slower Growth Won't Stop Fed's Rate Increase - Bwahaha!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=am4jJCOJkiVU

snip>

Krugman said the country is ``not back to the economic misery of the 1970s'' when it suffered from a serious case of stagflation -- a combination of high inflation and high unemployment. ``What few seem to have noticed, however, is that a mild form of stagflation -- rising inflation in an economy still well short of full employment -- has already arrived,'' he wrote.

Inflation Worries

The problem, of course, in the '70s was that with stagflation, the Fed had ``no good policy options. If the Fed cut interest rates to create jobs, it risked causing an inflationary spiral; if it raised interest rates to bring inflation down, it would further increase unemployment.''

Since the column appeared, numerous analysts have argued that Krugman is wrong, and he is. Aside from the levels of both joblessness and inflation, inflation fundamentals are completely different.

Inflation expectations are, to use Fed language, well anchored, and there is no wage-price spiral and productivity gains have been unusually strong -- as opposed to virtually non- existent as in the '70s.

The key point is that should economic growth really falter, there is every reason to believe that the inflationary pressures that have caught the eyes of Fed officials would diminish significantly. For instance, much slower growth in this country certainly would reduce world oil demand enough to bring down oil prices.

Meeting (CYA) Objectives

And under those conditions, officials wouldn't face the dilemma their counterparts did three decades ago. Cutting rates would hardly add to inflationary pressures.

Really? I guess they are still assuming there is no risk to the buck from foreign investors turning their noses to our debt then.

more regarding Kohn's CYA speech....

[54anickel]

112. Short View: Bond yield conundrum is back

http://beta.news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20050419/bs_ft/8b70d5eeb11c11d99bfc00000e2511c8

snip>

According to State Street, institutional investor confidence posted its biggest fall for 10 months in April; the poll was taken before last week's equity sell-off. The German ZEW survey of investor confidence, announced on Tuesday, fell more sharply than expected. The American Association of Individual Investors says that bullish investor sentiment has plunged to 16 per cent, its lowest level since September 1992.

All this must be a great disappointment to those pundits who predicted 10-year Treasury bond yields would hit 5 per cent by the end of this year. And it suggests that, for the moment at least, investors are ignoring two factors many believed would prove negative for bonds.

The first is that the US's heavy need for financing, thanks to its trade deficit, would eventually lead bondholders to demand higher yields. While the deficit is still getting wide, capital flows data indicate no shortage of future buyers.

The second factor is the threat of higher inflation. US producer prices rose 4.9 per cent in March while the most recent consumer inflation numbers showed a 3 per cent annual increase. But price pressures are much more subdued at the core level, which excludes volatile elements such as food and energy.

The lurking threat is stagflation, slower growth and higher prices. But the recent bond rally indicates that investors are not yet convinced this threat will materialise.

more...

[naderzenithnow]

114. SP500 looking to break support. Roar! The Bear looks to bust out!

Run little calf, run!

[UpInArms]

113. PIEHOLE ALERT: It's Lips are Moving

1:31pm 04/20/05 BUSH: U.S. HAS TO BE MORE EFFICIENT IN ENERGY USE

1:28pm 04/20/05 BUSH: ENERGY BILL A MATTER OF NATIONAL SECURITY

1:26pm 04/20/05 BUSH: U.S. DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED ENERGY HAS TO BE CUT

[ozymandius]

118. The piehole openeth and yieldeth results.

1:57
Dow
10,102.07
-25.34
(-0.25%)

Nasdaq
1,927.92
-4.44
(-0.23%)

S&P 500
1,146.36
-6.42
(-0.56%)

10-Yr Bond
4.229%
+0.03

NYSE Volume
1,372,107,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,326,005,0

[ozymandius]

125. 2:26 and piehole wonders never cease to amaze

Dow
10,070.23
-57.18
(-0.56%)

Nasdaq
1,921.41
-10.95
(-0.57%)

S&P 500
1,142.47
-10.31
(-0.89%)

10-Yr Bond
4.238%
+0.03

NYSE Volume
1,511,918,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,461,987,00

[UpInArms]

115. 1:38 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,084.63 -42.78 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,924.53 -7.83 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,144.73 -8.05 (-0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 4.241 +0.38 (+0.90%)

NYSE Volume 1,302,363,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,257,087,000

1:30PM: Little changed since the last update as stocks vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Treasurys, however, have extended early recovery efforts, as the 10-year note is now off just 5 ticks yielding 4.23%, ahead of the 14:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book... The market will be looking for any clarification on the current state of inflation and/or any significant signs of slower economic growth... NYSE Adv/Dec 1006/2210, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1087/1904

[54anickel]

119. Energy firms' tax break bid is adding up

Energy firms' tax break bid is adding up
Conservative critics say costly subsidies uncalled-for amid skyrocketing prices

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/04/20/MNGA4CBM461.DTL

Washington -- The growing price tag of tax breaks to oil, gas, nuclear, coal and other energy producers in a new House energy bill is raising concerns among White House officials and some conservatives, who say the costly subsidies aren't needed at a time of sky-high energy prices.

Republican leaders had promised a slimmer version of the energy bill the House has passed the last few years to avoid worsening the federal deficit. But a new analysis by a watchdog group showed that lawmakers added $35 billion in the last three weeks since the bill was introduced -- a total of $88.9 billion in subsidies to industry over 10 years in the bill.

Analysts said the extra spending was tacked on to win over wavering lawmakers or to placate parts of the energy industry. The House is scheduled to begin debating the bill today.

"It becomes a lot less about a national energy policy and more about a strategic divvying up of regional perks to secure not just enough votes to win, but to win by a landslide," said Keith Ashdown, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan group that analyzed the bill's costs.

MORE...

[UpInArms]

120. Economy expansion uneven across U.S.: Beige Book

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38462.5837909722-834367763&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy is expanding, but growth is uneven across the 12 Fed districts, according to the latest Fed Beige Book report on economic conditions released on Wednesday. Reports from many districts suggest "upward price pressures have strengthened" as the result of higher energy costs. A few districts reported poor retail sales in the period from late February to early April.

2:00pm 04/20/05 BEIGE BOOK FINDS INCREASE PRICE POWER IN RETAIL SECTOR

2:00pm 04/20/05 BEIGE BOOK: FACTORY SECTOR CONTINUES SOLID GROWTH

2:00pm 04/20/05 BEIGE BOOK: SOME DISTRICTS SEE POOR RETAIL SALES

2:00pm 04/20/05 BEIGE BOOK: ENERGY COSTS CAUSING PRICE PRESSURE

2:00pm 04/20/05 BEIGE BOOK: UPWARD PRICE PRESSURES HAVE STRENGTHENED

2:00pm 04/20/05 BEIGE BOOK: SOME DISTRICTS REPORT UNEVEN GROWTH

2:00pm 04/20/05 FED BEIGE BOOK: CHOPPY EXPANSION IN U.S. ECONOMY

[54anickel]

124. Link to the Fed site and report

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2005/20050420/default.htm

[ozymandius]

126. Mr. Greenscam... why are you smiling?

[UpInArms]

122. 2:11 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,071.84 -55.57 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,923.24 -9.12 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,142.78 -10.00 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233 +0.30 (+0.71%)

NYSE Volume 1,442,242,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,393,853,000

2:00PM: Equities show little vigor, having moved little in the past hour, but a negative sentiment remains intact... Bucking the bearish bias, however, have been Internet stocks after Yahoo (YHOO 34.88 +1.66) doubled Q1 profits on strong ad revenues and raised FY05 guidnce... Shares of Google (GOOG 198.33 +6.93) have surged in sympathy and found additional support after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Outperform while eBay (EBAY 32.99 +0.82) has surged ahead of its earnings report after the bell...

Amazon.com (AMZN 33.30 +0.52), which is scheduled to report next Tuesday, has also found buyers in a down market...NYSE Adv/Dec 923/2320, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1012/1980

Last trade 83.45 Change -0.31 (-0.37%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.58 Previous Close 83.76

High 84.06 Low 83.40

Last tick: 2005-04-20 13:42:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

127. Ameritrade loses 200,000 client files

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=22662

IN THE THIRD major security leak announced in a week, another US database might have found found its way into the paws of the underword.
Online discount broker, Ameritrade, said it has informed about 200,000 current and former customers that a backup computer tape containing their personal information has been lost.

Apparently, the company realised the tape was missing back in February, when the package went west when it was being shipped between vendors.

Information on the tape pertains to people nationwide who may have been Ameritrade customers from 2000-2003. It may have included their Social Security numbers, among other information, which is teh basic ingredient required to make a nice ID fraud cake.

snip>

On Monday, DSW Shoe Warehouse admitted that hackers had accessed a database with credit card records for about 1.4 million customers.

more...

[ozymandius]

128. Yikes!

Giving back yesterday's gains and then some at 2:42...
Dow
10,064.09
-63.32
(-0.63%)

Nasdaq
1,921.73
-10.63
(-0.55%)

S&P 500
1,142.27
-10.51
(-0.91%)

10-Yr Bond
4.22%
+0.02

NYSE Volume
1,588,605,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,518,839,000

[ozymandius]

130. 2:30 blather

2:30PM: Selling intensifies, pushing the major averages to new session lows, after the Beige Book offers an assessment of inflation potential... While the Beige Book has shown that the U.S. economy is expanding amid increased production, "upward price pressures have strengthened" as the result of higher energy costs and most regions (11 of 12) have reported the ability to pass on some cost increases... But even though a recovery effort in Treasurys has lifted the 10-year note to unchanged, which now yields a low 4.21%, the stock market has failed to take note... NYSE Adv/Dec 934/2304, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1005/2001

[54anickel]

132. HA, "...the stock market has failed to take note..." Really, or is it

that they are all packing into Treasuries in a flight to safety? Perhaps they took too much notice in what their "neighbor" was doing?

[54anickel]

131. Just look at it as yet another buying opportunity

:sarcasm:

[AnneD]

137. Is it time......

to clap if we believe ???????

[54anickel]

140. Can't hurt to try...

[UpInArms]

141. I think the dust should start appearing anytime now

[54anickel]

129. DOW JONES REVOLT IN THE WORKS

http://www.nypost.com/business/44926.htm

April 20, 2005 -- Major shareholders may try today to break through the wall surrounding the Wall Street Journal's family controlled empire.

The company's top institutional investors — including its largest T. Rowe Price at 15 percent — are being urged to vote down a bylaw change that would hand the Bancroft founding family added power at Dow Jones & Co., parent of the flagships Journal and Barron's.

A proxy advisory company said it's urging investors to protest the change at today's annual meeting and also to strip chief Peter Kann of his chairman's post so that an outsider could run the board without so many strings attached. Kann is also chief executive.

snip>

Kann and many on his board, including his wife, Karen House — publisher of The Wall Street Journal — have aligned with the Bancrofts over their bylaw change that protects the family's dominant grip even if members sell large chunks of their super-voting shares at higher than market prices to raise cash. "Other shareholders don't get that luxury," Taxin said.

snip>

After Kann sided with the family, he got a 31 percent raise last month, despite a steady decline in the company's fortunes.

more...

Yep, now there's an example of a Chairman looking out for the best interest of the shareholders.

[UpInArms]

133. March Tool Orders Flat

http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA526382?title=Article&spacedesc=news&nid=2645

Orders of semiconductor manufacturing equipment for North American-based suppliers continued to hover around $1.02 billion in March, as the book-to-bill inched up for the first time in months.

That's according to statistics released by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), which released its monthly book-to-bill figures late Tuesday after the close of markets. SEMI's book-to-bill is a ratio of orders, or bookings, to shipments, or billings; a ratio of 1 or above is considered a sign of a healthy market. The consortium uses a three-month rolling average to determine the book-to-bill for North American-based tool vendors.

In March said vendors posted a combined book-to-bill of 0.81, posting bookings of $1.02 billion and billings of $1.27 billion. March orders were nominally below the revised February level, and 26 percent below the $1.38 billion posted in the year ago period.

Shipments, on the other hand were down 5 percent from February and about even with the March 2004 level of billings.

...more...

[spotbird]

134. At least the market isn't crashing,

this looks like a rather tame response to the fed news.

[54anickel]

138. Could just be another moment of

[spotbird]

151. Spoke too soon.

I should stay out of the prediction business.

[UpInArms]

142. 3:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,059.73 -67.68 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,923.19 -9.17 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,142.00 -10.78 (-0.94%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217 +0.14 (+0.33%)

NYSE Volume 1,737,851,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,640,428,000

3:00PM: More of the same as stocks continue to trade in a narrow range near intra-day lows... One of the largest laggards on the day has been Consumer Discretionary (-1.1%), courtesy of broad-based selling in Retail (-1.7%)... Hardest hit have been specialty retailers like AEOS (-4.6%), PSUN (-3.8%), BEBE (-3.8%), ANF (-3.3%) and GPS (-1.8%)... But even dept. store JC Penney (JCP 45.11 -0.41), which had been a standout to the upside amid upbeat comments coming out of its analyst meeting - including reaffirmed FY05 EPS guidance - has been under pressure...

Grocers Kroger (KR 15.62 +0.25) and Albertsons (ABS 20.09 +0.12) have been the only notable retail components catching a bid... NYSE Adv/Dec 891/2353, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 998/2020

buck's trying to get back to 83.50

Last trade 83.49 Change -0.27 (-0.32%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.58 Previous Close 83.76

High 84.06 Low 83.40

Last tick: 2005-04-20 14:39:19 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

144. Dang, I'm just a little slow again today!...n/t

[ozymandius]

145. markets open a vein

3:17
Dow
10,031.42
-95.99
(-0.95%)

Nasdaq
1,918.10
-14.26
(-0.74%)

S&P 500
1,138.77
-14.01
(-1.22%)

10-Yr Bond
4.215
+0.12
(+0.29%)

NYSE Volume
1,778,628,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,673,468,00

[UpInArms]

148. looks more like an artery

Dow 10,024.85 -102.56 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,917.27 -15.09 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,138.51 -14.27 (-1.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 +0.08 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,806,781,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,698,088,000

[ozymandius]

149. someone goofed up on this economic plan

[54anickel]

152. *SNARF* That's the greatest Ozy! Perfect fit!!!

[AnneD]

174. LOL LOL LOL

Oh OZY, that's rich. My life as a cautionary tale......love it.

[54anickel]

143. S&P getting close to that support line again at 3:13 - start clapping

Dow 10,055.14 -72.27 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,921.86 -10.50 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,141.53 -11.25 (-0.98%) (Support 1140)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% +0.01
NYSE Volume 1,749,690,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,649,191,000

edit for html

[UpInArms]

146. 3:18 EST and no faeries appearing (down 93)

Dow 10,033.49 -93.92 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 1,917.92 -14.44 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,139.14 -13.64 (-1.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 +0.08 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,786,048,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,680,502,000

[UpInArms]

156. 3:29 EST and trying to catch the fall

Dow 10,039.40 -88.01 (-0.87%)
Nasdaq 1,918.57 -13.79 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 1,139.93 -12.85 (-1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 +0.08 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,862,713,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,743,593,000

is it dust or vultures?

[54anickel]

159. Clock's ticking Tinkerbell! Will she ba able to save the S&P for another

day?

[KoKo]

154. 3:30 and S&P breaks down below support.....

Dow 10,025.66 -101.75 (-1.00%)
Nasdaq 1,917.20 -15.16 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,138.28 -14.50 (-1.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% +0.01
NYSE Volume 1,828,655,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,717,168,000

[54anickel]

147. Will we see suspended animation again today in the S&P?

3:19

Dow 10,034.90 -92.51 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq 1,918.18 -14.18 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,139.03 -13.75 (-1.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% +0.01
NYSE Volume 1,793,327,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,685,522,000


edit to add adv/dec figures and for html

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 944 (27%) 1036 (32%)
Declines 2314 (68%) 2003 (62%)
Unchanged 144 (4%) 148 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 385 (22%) 710 (43%)
Down Vol* 1278 (75%) 896 (55%)
Unch. Vol* 28 (1%) 18 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 16 20
New Lo's 88 125

[ozymandius]

155. Yes. If losses approach 2% we'll see a slowdown. Curbs for sure at 2%. n/t

[54anickel]

157. Think they'll really let her go for the whole 2% or just hang on at the

technical support number?

[ozymandius]

160. If the PPT is worth their salt - they will slow to a crawl at support.

This raises another question: Why does the PPT allow such a slide when Bush is preaching his SS piratization plan? Wouldn't it be easier to sell this pig-in-a-poke if the markets were behaving?

[UpInArms]

162. 3:42 and 9 points before it breaks 10,000

Dow 10,009.72 -117.69 (-1.16%)
Nasdaq 1,914.86 -17.50 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,137.35 -15.43 (-1.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 +0.08 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,954,201,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,821,392,000

[naderzenithnow]

163. PPT has only marginal powers on the edges at this point..

[54anickel]

165. Looks like the PPT sucks today - Dow near 10,000 at 3:42

Then again, there have been reports that their bigger worry right now is the buck and bonds. Perhaps spooking some of the weak-kneed into Treasuries is the plan. Dangerous play and I'd have to give them Kudos if they pull it off without to much damage done to the stock market. That will make me :puke:

Dow 10,006.82 -120.59 (-1.19%)
Nasdaq 1,914.68 -17.68 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,137.19 -15.59 (-1.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% +0.01
NYSE Volume 1,954,201,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,821,392,000

[naderzenithnow]

173. You've given them too much credit. They MAY have averted 9999.

[54anickel]

186. Do I?...n/t

[ewagner]

172. PPT?

I'm a lurker in this forum but I don't recall hearing the term PPT. Anybody want ot help?

[naderzenithnow]

179. answer

http://www.fallstreet.com/jul2202/jul2202.htm

"After all, the PPT's mandate is to help create an illusionary market bottom – the illusion only becomes real if others join in and buy."

[UpInArms]

180. PPT aka Working Group on Financial Markets aka faeries, pixies or dust

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/codification/executive_order/12631.html

Executive Order 12631--Working Group on Financial Markets

Source: The provisions of Executive Order 12631 of Mar. 18, 1988, appear at 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559, unless otherwise noted.

By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:
Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:
(1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;
(2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;
(3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and
(4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.
(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee, shall be the Chairman of the Working Group.
Sec. 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.
(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes.

Sec. 3. Administration. (a) The heads of Executive departments, agencies, and independent instrumentalities shall, to the extent permitted by law, provide the Working Group such information as it may require for the purpose of carrying out this Order.
(b) Members of the Working Group shall serve without additional compensation for their work on the Working Group.
(c) To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefore, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions.

http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/drecon/2002/0209.html

Does the Federal Reserve System hold stocks or other commonly traded equities like the Bank of Japan recently started doing? (09/2002)

The Federal Reserve System does not hold corporate stocks, but it does hold government securities. In 2001 government securities1 accounted for a significant share of Federal Reserve System's $654 billion in assets. The Federal Reserve's securities portfolio is composed of securities issued by the United States government or government agencies. Securities held by Federal Reserve Banks are obtained and traded through open market operations.

While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) also conducts monetary policy through open market operations, it recently announced a plan to purchase stocks from commercial banks that fit a set of specified criteria. A subsequent analysis in the Financial Times2 explained the reason for the BOJ's decision to purchase stocks from commercial banks: "The bank said falls in the Nikkei stock average, which dipped briefly below 9000 last week, near its 20-year low, could threaten the stability of financial markets and the financial system."

...more...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/willettalway030102.html

Plunge Protection may Plunge the Economy into the loo
By Brady Willett

A curiously understated article was released last week from the Financial Times:

Feb 21 -- Japan suspected of stock market intervention

When considering that earlier in February Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokaw confirmed Japan's newly formed 'stock buying body' would intervene (buy stocks) when needed, 'suspicion' hardly seems like the most appropriate word. Moreover, when considering that the Japanese 'SBB' officially started operations on Friday February 22 with 4 Trillion Yen at their disposal ($15.15 billion in 02, and 03) it would appear that further mention of 'suspect' trades will no longer be the course de jour. Rather, the fact is that Japanese officials are aiming to legitimize their newly formed organization of plunge protectors.

The SBB arrives at a time when Japanese banks are more likely than not preparing to sell their stock holdings. At the end of March (fiscal year end) banks will be required to book their equity holdings at market value – not an encouraging development for bank balance sheets when considering that the Nikkei has been on a multi-year slump. Furthermore, beginning in April 'the process will begin to scrap guarantees on bank deposits' (Reuters). Clearly, as the government attempts to rid banks of bad debts there is the danger of triggering a stock market collapse. It is this expected weakness in share prices during the upcoming March/April period that provided the incentive for the formation of the SBB.

The PPT and the SBB
Unlike the America plunge protection team, which tends to undertake market manipulations incognito, the Japanese stock buying body's sole purpose is to openly support the financial markets. Furthermore, there is considerable doubt as to whether or not the body's mandate is to simply cushion the blow as banks continue to sell-off their enormous holdings (the original concept for its formation), or if it is attempting to underpin a stock market that would otherwise deservedly fall regardless of such bank sales. To be sure, the rhetoric from the body's creators has been that the markets must stop falling:

...more...

[UpInArms]

182. Fed to prop up Wall St

http://www.guardian.co.uk/wtccrash/story/0,1300,552568,00.html

Shadowy committee ready to pour billions into stock markets to avert shares meltdown

Special report: Terrorism in the US

Richard Wachman and Jamie Doward
Sunday September 16, 2001
The Observer

The US Federal Reserve and Wall Street's powerful investment banks are preparing to spend billions of dollars to support the US stock market, which opens this week for the first time since last Tuesday's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

A secretive committee - the Working Group on Financial Markets, dubbed 'the plunge protection team' - includes bankers as well as representatives of the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and the US Treasury. It is ready to co-ordinate intervention by the Federal Reserve on an unprecedented scale.

The Fed, supported by the banks, will buy equities from mutual funds and other institutional sellers if there is evidence of panic selling in the wake of last week's carnage.

...more...

[54anickel]

181. That's a dang good question Ozy.

But is the PPT big enough to take on "big money"? I don't think so...but I don't know for sure. I don't think big money (plutocracy) likes the Piratization plan. That could lead to way too much gubbermint interference and regulation into the Ponzi scheme.

Sure, big banks and investment firms could line their pockets, but there's been rumblings against this plan even by some of them (the ones smart enough to have more long term vision.)

Just a guess on my part of course. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

190. It just makes me wonder if the Fed is thin for liquidity.

When did we last hear about any bond auctions. They were flying at a furious pace a few weeks ago. Especially the two- and five-year bonds.

[54anickel]

194. Ugh, not another "liquidity crisis". Too scary to think about. So

perhaps Greenspin will leave on the same note he came in on.

Heh-heh, wouldn't that sort of be like saying 18 years later and we're back to square one. :evilgrin:

Not sure about the auctions. Here's the tenative schedule

http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf

Found this page for the actual auction results too.

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/of/ofresults2005.htm

[ozymandius]

161. 3:42 and it just gets worse

Even bonds are getting squeezed.
Dow
10,007.70
-119.71
(-1.18%)

Nasdaq
1,914.68
-17.68
(-0.91%)

S&P 500
1,137.19
-15.59
(-1.35%)

10-Yr Bond
4.211
+0.08
(+0.19%)

NYSE Volume
1,954,201,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,821,392,000

[UpInArms]

164. 3:45 and not slowing much

Dow 10,006.45 -120.96 (-1.19%)
Nasdaq 1,913.15 -19.21 (-0.99%)
S&P 500 1,137.00 -15.78 (-1.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 +0.08 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,981,676,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,845,493,000

[ozymandius]

166. ten before close - S&P continues to lose ground

Dow
10,019.90
-107.51
(-1.06%)

Nasdaq
1,914.34
-18.02
(-0.93%)

S&P 500
1,137.71
-15.07
(-1.31%)

10-Yr Bond
42.11
+0.08
(+0.19%)

NYSE Volume
2,026,858,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,884,443,000

[UpInArms]

167. 3:51 EST (10K crisis averted?)

Dow 10,021.89 -105.52 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,914.87 -17.49 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,138.02 -14.76 (-1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 +0.08 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 2,026,858,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,884,443,000

[Career Prole]

168. My my my...

Day's Range: 10,000.46 - 10,186.45

Tickling the dragon's tail!

[ckramer]

169. Will we see 9999 today?

Once it went down to that level...we would be in for a stock bear market.

When everyone opens their 401k statement this month, ooch!

[The_Casual_Observer]

170. It will beat my prediction that it will take 3 weeks to drop

below 10,000. It's only taking two.

[ozymandius]

171. just before the close

Dow
10,015.09
-112.32
(-1.11%)

Nasdaq
1,914.69
-17.67
(-0.91%)

S&P 500
1,137.98
-14.80
(-1.28%)

10-Yr Bond
42.11
+0.08
(+0.19%)

NYSE Volume
2,126,729,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,977,085,000

[ozymandius]

177. closing numbers - 3:30 blather finally posted

Dow
10,012.36
-115.05
(-1.14%)

Nasdaq
1,913.76
-18.60
(-0.96%)

S&P 500
1,137.50
-15.28
(-1.33%)

10-Yr Bond
42.11
+0.08
(+0.19%)

NYSE Volume
2,186,430,000

Nasdaq Volume
2,004,495,000

3:30PM: Bearish tone persists as the indices extend their reach into negative territory... Meanwhile, even though this week's key inflation measures (i.e. PPI and CPI) have now come and gone, investors will have three pieces of economic data to digest tomorrow, in addition to an even bigger day of earnings... At 8:30, initial claims (consensus 329K) will be released while March leading indicators (consensus -0.3%) will be out just after the market opens (at 10:00 ET) and a read on regional manufacturing - April Philly Fed (consensus 10.0) - will hit the wires around 12:00 ET...

[ozymandius]

188. closing blather

:20PM: Stocks finished lower across the board, as strong earnings failed to quash renewed inflation fears... While yesterday's encouraging core-PPI figure mitigated inflation fears, subsequently sparking a rally in stocks, today's higher than expected 0.4% rise in core-CPI - a better gauge of underlying inflation - reignited the possibility that the Fed may raise rates at a faster than measured pace (i.e. in 50 bp increments), preventing any sort of follow through for equities... The overall March CPI was up 0.6% (consensus +0.5%), the largest increase since last October...

Further highlighting concerns about the economy and weakening overall market sentiment was the 2:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book, which showed that "upward price pressures have strengthened" and that "high energy prices were already, or could soon be, damping consumer demand," as most regions reported some ability to pass on some cost increases to consumers... On a more positive note, however, were better than expected Q1 earnings from 16 of this morning's 23 S&P companies out with results (3 matched estimates while 3 missed)...

For instance, Intel (INTC 22.69 +0.06) and Yahoo (YHOO 34.66 +1.44) posted strong Q1 earnings and upside guidance, easing concerns of slowing technology demand... Also, a huge earnings surprise and raised FY05 outlook from Caterpillar (CAT 89.42 +4.47), coupled with strong results from fellow Dow components like JP Morgan (JPM 34.90 -0.05), Altria (MO 62.91 -1.21) and United Technologies (UTX 99.55 +1.28), provided investors with some reassurance that profit growth is not waning...

[UpInArms]

175. Investors pull $12B from money market funds

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCB8827D3%2D1B10%2D42F8%2DB211%2D829F30931926%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Investors pulled $12 billion from money market mutual funds for the week ended April 19, investment research firm iMoneyNet reported Wednesday afternoon.

Taxable funds lost $5.3 billion overall to roughly $1.54 trillion, with institutional funds dropping $11.2 billion while retail funds added about $6 billion.

Meanwhile, tax-free funds saw assets weaken by $6.7 billion to $318.8 billion.

The net decline of $12 billion left $1.86 trillion invested in 1,835 taxable and tax-free money funds.

...more...

[54anickel]

213. What do you suppose this means? People pulling out the cash

they've had on the sidelines at their brokerage house? Tell me it's something more benign than that.

I have no idea what this is about, but I'm not getting a warm, fuzzy feeling here. :shrug:

[RawMaterials]

215. getting ready for Hyperinflation

maybe, they want the cash to buy every thing that might not be able to afford otherwise.

[54anickel]

216. That's NOT benign RawMaterials! I'm looking for warm fuzzies here.

[ckramer]

176. Looking at the chart

It seems that this is just the beginning of the going down. I think the market will fall further into the 8000 - 9000 territory this week.

It's a gloomy day for Wall Street!

First the stock market collapses,
Then the housing market's cooling down...

Welcome to the Bush economy winter!

[UpInArms]

184. SEC chief urges bond market to police itself

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5DE97937%2D9308%2D4BBF%2D88D0%2D23BD8A4B3A5B%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Bond market participants should examine their industry for possible signs of conflict and correct them, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Wednesday.

"Learn from your colleagues in the equity market," SEC Chairman William Donaldson said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Bond Market Association in New York.

"Look at some of the mistakes made in that market, and rather than conclude that they could never happen here, ask yourselves what sorts of practices in the bond market might implicate the same fundamental concerns," Donaldson said.

Donaldson urged industry players to disclose any conflicts of interest in fixed-income research, heed investors' queries about dealer compensation and take other steps.

...more...

:rofl: that man is a comedian :rofl:

[54anickel]

185. Oh great! So I take it there are just as many, if not more, "problems"

in the bond markets? Whodathunk!

[ozymandius]

189. Ahhh... the magic of the marketplace *sparkle*

Next he'll promise free pie and ponies for everyone.

[54anickel]

198. HA! Won't he be surprised by what he finds. WTF is this quote about

anyway?

"I will want to explore this issue of liquidity before the commission takes final action on the NASD's proposal," Donaldson said in his prepared remarks.

He doesn't understand the issue of liquidity? Where's he been? Maybe Greenspin will offer up a quick tutorial on the subject.

[daleo]

187. I took my off this for an hour or two and look what happened.

There does seem to be a critical mass of bad economic news gathering. Either recession or stagflation, we should know in a while (assuming government statistical agencies are accurate).

[ckramer]

197. Don't worry, people can always sell their house

one million a piece.

[54anickel]

191. NYSE to Merge With Archipelago Holdings

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050420/nyse_archipelago.html?.v=5

NEW YORK (AP) -- The New York Stock Exchange will merge with Archipelago Holdings Inc., an electronic trading company, becoming a for profit enterprise, the exchange announced Wednesday.

The not-for-profit NYSE's seat holders will receive a cash payment and a total of 70 percent of the shares in the new company, while Archipelago's shareholders will retain 30 percent of the shares, NYSE Chief Executive John Thain said at a news conference.

"This is an essential step to maintaining our global competitiveness and leadership," NYSE Chief Executive John Thain said at a news conference.

The new entity, a holding company to be called NYSE Group, will spin off the New York Stock Exchange's regulatory arm -- recently invigorated after coming under intense criticism for failing to stem a floor-trading scandal -- into a not-for-profit oversight entity.

"I think the regulatory structure we're proposing will be a model for other self-regulating agencies," Thain said.

more...

[RawMaterials]

196. Great now you can invest in the actual casino

not just the chips :) I ques the house always wins.

edit to add the house always wins

[Danmel]

192. I just love this core rate of inflation thing

As long as we don't eat, drive, heat the house or use any hot water, the inflation rate is just fine! What kind of crock of shit is that anyway?

BTW, does either index take into account increases in medical costs and co pays? Cause we are getting hammered big time.

[ckramer]

195. It's green spent shit. eom

[ckramer]

193. This is what I read from the Yahoo board

"market headed for major crash... Dow at 8000 by end of May
Naz to 1600 by end of may, at 1300 by August"

I believe that. This is for real!

[Renew Deal]

202. Who said that?

That has about as much credibility as anyone on the internet. It doesn't mean much. That said, I have been hearing those kinds of rumors. A non-political, non-finance coworker is saying that he hears July recession.

[54anickel]

199. Bush sees signs of shift on yuan peg

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/04/20/business/peg.html

President George W. Bush has said that China is considering taking an interim step toward easing its currency system and that Washington wants action as soon as possible.

An interim move could help ease rising Chinese-U.S. tensions, but Bush said the United States would still keep pressure on Beijing to "eventually" let markets set the value of the yuan.

Some U.S. lawmakers are threatening to penalize Beijing with tariffs, but administration officials say they cannot support such legislation at this point.


snip>

The Senate voted 67 to 33 in favor of that measure this month. The victory - which Schumer and Graham said had caught them by surprise - prompted Senate leaders to promise a second vote on the bill before July 27 if the two agreed to drop the measure until then.

Although administration officials have disavowed the bill, Schumer told reporters he had received a different message in private. "I have gotten signals from the administration, quiet signals, that they're happy we're doing this," Schumer said.

more...

[Renew Deal]

201. This is important.

I don't remember that bill. When is it going to Bush for a signature?

[54anickel]

204. Couple of them have been floating around for about a month. Here's

another article on the "rising threat" from China. Gotta wonder what Boy-Blunder is up to here.

US boosts pressure on China to float

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15036014%255E2703,00.html

GEORGE W. Bush has stepped up the pressure on China to revalue its currency amid alarmist rhetoric from US congressmen accusing Beijing of a weapons build-up "aimed at America".

The US President, under increasing pressure from both sides of a Congress growing impatient that he is playing it too softly with China, urged Beijing to liberalise its currency regime.

snip>

It comes as two separate bills, with some bipartisan support, have been introduced into Congress in the past month seeking to penalise China with punitive tariffs because of "currency manipulation". The US trade deficit with China is at a record high of more than $US162billion ($210billion), thanks to cheap Chinese goods flooding the US market. China's gross domestic product rose 9.5 per cent from a year earlier to 3.14trillion yuan ($490billion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing.

snip>

But it was powerful Californian republican Duncan Hunter, chairman of a House Committee in Congress that has oversight of the armed services, who stepped up the rhetoric yesterday, clearly worried about US hegemony in the Pacific and citing possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

He told CNN that China's huge reserves of US dollars were allowing it to buy sophisticated weapons that could destroy US aircraft carriers.

more fear-mongering....

[UpInArms]

205. Lawmakers Push Bill on Chinese Currency

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34805-2005Apr7.html

Thursday, April 7, 2005; 4:44 PM

WASHINGTON - Congress for the second time in two days Thursday gave notice to both China and the Bush administration that it will take action if nothing is done about undervalued Chinese currency that gives Chinese goods an advantage over American competition.

"We are playing by the rules. We think the Chinese government is cheating," Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, said in promoting a bill that defines exchange rate manipulation as a prohibited export subsidy and sets guidelines for U.S. agencies to sanction China and protect U.S. industries.

Ryan was joined in sponsoring the bill by Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who expressed concern that China was using the billions of dollars amassed from currency manipulation to buy advanced weaponry from Russia and other countries.

The bill also outlines steps to protect the U.S. defense industry from unfair Chinese competition.

...more...

[54anickel]

209. So we have 2 bills, one by Hunter, the other by Graham. I have to admit

this Hunter one took me by surprise. I only knew about the Graham - Schumer 27.5% tariff proposal.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/11438313.htm

Graham’s trade bill upsets China

Foreign officials to meet with senator about proposal that would impose tariff

By LAUREN MARKOE

Washington Bureau


WASHINGTON — Top-ranked Chinese trade officials want to talk to U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, about a certain bill he has pitched.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow already has called the South Carolina Republican to talk about the same piece of legislation — which would slap a 27.5 percent tariff on every Chinese export to the United States.

The bill, which had languished in Congress for two years before it gained unexpected support on the Senate floor two weeks ago, has suddenly made Graham a key politician for both Chinese and American trade and finance officials.

Graham — and co-sponsor Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. — say they don’t favor tariffs, but the threat of a hefty tax on Chinese goods is the only thing that will force the Chinese to revalue their grossly undervalued currency.

snip>

Also Tuesday, Graham, who has become increasingly active in the fight against the Central American Free Trade Agreement, predicted that it will fail.

“There’s going to be a moratorium on trade agreements until we deal with current trade abuses,” Graham said.

more...

[Roland99]

200. Dow is down over 5% from the day the Propagandist first took office

Great record, eh?

Trickle-down economics is a fucking joke.

[underthedome]

206. Whatever, China is doing great! *nm

*nm

[Renew Deal]

217. Nikkei Falls 2.8 Pct on U.S. Economy Worry

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1410305#1410393