A troubled triangle: Iran, India and Pakistan

[Dover]

Apr 22, 2005

A troubled triangle: Iran, India and Pakistan
By Iason Athanasiadis

TEHRAN - The formation of a critical triangular relationship among regional powers Iran, India and Pakistan - both cooperative and adversarial - has accelerated in the past months. Iran is trying to shore up alliances with its neighbors in the face of escalating tension with the United States, even as Pakistan and India seek to disengage from the increasingly tight control that Washington exerts over the region by engaging in fence-mending. At the same time, Pakistan and India are attempting to extract further benefits from US patronage, namely advanced weapons systems.

After the relative policy success of a Shi'ite-majority government coming to power in Iran's Arab neighbor Iraq, Tehran is now looking east, keen to normalize relations with its neighbors in the hope that their support will blunt the edge of the US military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the same time, Iran is strengthening its relations with regional superpowers China and Russia.

This month Washington justified its growing involvement in the region when it identified Iran, India and Pakistan as a "troubled triangle": "Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran are a troubled triangle and the US strategy is to involve the US government in the region to reduce the troubled nature," said the US Army War College's Larry Goodson. "The US faces ... a real conundrum in that we have to stay in order to achieve strategic interest of stabilizing and transforming these troubled regions but our very presence there is going to continue to attract some of the more militant jihadists who want to challenge their conception of the US project for the world. Anti-American attitudes are at an all-time high in some areas. We really can't stay and yet we dare not go."

Washington, meanwhile, is utilizing a carrots-and-sticks policy as it tries to disrupt the rapprochement between Iran and its neighbors that would end Tehran's international isolation. The Bush administration's carrot is an offer to sell India and Pakistan advanced F-16 fighter jets capable of dispatching nuclear payloads. India has yet to accept the offer and is making noises that it might approach Russia and the European Union as alternative arms suppliers. As for Pakistan, given Iran's close cooperation with arch-foe India, it has steered a more ambivalent course, welcoming a permanent US presence in Afghanistan even as it offers to act as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear dispute.

The governing circles in Tehran know that their Sunni Muslim nuclear neighbor could well use its US-supplied weapons against them one day, a fear that Washington is implicitly encouraging in its bid to further contain Iran. But the Bush administration's strategy could well backfire by hastening Tehran's scramble toward a nuclear safeguard. ..cont'd

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GD22Ak02.html

[varun]

1. Imagine if Iran, India and Pakistan become friendly...

...who will buy those F-16s then?

What will happen to those 5000 Lockheed workers in Dallas...who manufacture and sell "Weapons of Mass Destruction"?

[salib]

2. They'll buy Mig's and missles from China

Like they already are. Why just a triangle? It is obvious that a large chunk of the globe is aligning in opposition to U.S. imperial goals.

[passy]

3. Don't forget China

India and China have been getting very friendly very quickly, even overlooking age old border disputes in order to concentrate on trade and development.
The East is the new West.