WP - Dark side to good news on bird flu

[pandemic_1918]

Dark side to good news on bird flu
As virus becomes less lethal, it could gain mobility

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7593132/

By Alan Sipress
The Washington Post
Updated: 11:16 p.m. ET April 22, 2005


HANOI -

<snip>

More than a year after avian influenza emerged in East Asia, killing more than two-thirds of the people with confirmed cases, Vietnamese doctors are reporting that the mortality rate in their country has dropped substantially.

An ominous turn

But while this is good news for survivors, it could mean the outbreak of bird flu in Southeast Asia is taking an ominous turn. If a disease quickly kills almost everyone it infects, it has little chance of spreading very far, according to international health experts. The less lethal bird flu becomes, they say, the more likely it is to develop into the global pandemic they fear, potentially killing tens of millions of people.

"The virus could be adapting to humans," said Peter Horby, an epidemiologist with the World Health Organization in Hanoi, the Vietnamese capital. "There's a number of indications it could be moving toward a more dangerous virus."

The mortality rate for bird flu in Vietnam this year is about 35 percent, almost exactly half that of last year, according to Health Ministry statistics. The mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, by comparison, was less than 5 percent, but the outbreak killed an estimated 40 million people worldwide...........

[Freedom_from_Chains]

1. And this is suppose to be good news? n/t

[iamjoy]

2. Bad News And Good News

I wondered if as the virus mutated to become more communicable it would also become less deadly/virulent.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg (pardon the cliche)?

[pandemic_1918]

3. Recombination will Create More H5N1's

H5N1 continues to evolve. It recombines. Co-circulating versions will create more recombinants

http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html

[DELUSIONAL]

8. Evolve? Jail time for you! Theocracy thought police at work . . . .

But really this is just one more example of evolution happening right before our eyes.

Now if "Intelligent Design" replaces evolution -- then is the logical conclusion . . . Is God designing bird flu to reduce the human population?

[pandemic_1918]

9. H5N1 Recombination in Northern Vietnam

Evolution in action. H5N1 is recombining in Northern Vietnam, which will make pandemic vaccine iffy.

http://news.google.com/news?q=h5n1%20recombination&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

H5N1 does read press releases. Evolution is alive and well in Northern Vietnam.

[pandemic_1918]

15. WSN/33 in Dead Pig Lungs

WSN/33 doesn't need to adapt and it has been detected in lungs of dead pigs in Korea (Korea imports pigs from US)

http://news.google.com/news?q=wsn%2F33%20&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

[Mnemosyne]

4. And the good news was?

Thanks for the post pandemic. Been following and wondering much.

This may be unrelated but, I've been watching the Weather Channel flu report page online and they stopped reporting as of 4/9. I wanted to track flu in areas of Connecticut and New Jersey after terror "exercises" of 4/4 to 4/6. Maybe an update will show soon, it says every 10 to 12 days. May be just paranoid and looking for something not there, but I feel you can't be too cautious where this admin is concerned.

Checked out your homepage, interesting to say the least. What are your thoughts on the distribution of the 1957 virus and subsequent rush to find and destroy? From some of what I've been reading, they don't even know where all of it is in US? And their great security was FEDEX?!

I'm paying attention, just not sure how to put all of the information together yet.

Thanks.

[pandemic_1918]

5. 1957 H2N2 Pandemic Flu - 1933 WSN/33 in Pigs in Korea

The issue with the 1957 H2N2 mailing is really more related to mislabeling issues, which will be much harder to resolve than retrieving the samples sent via FedEx because there will be tracking numbers, etc. Situation with WSN/33 in pigs in Korea is a much greater danger with regard to human viruses from the past causing a future pandemic

http://news.google.com/news?q=WSN%2F33&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

[Mnemosyne]

7. Thanks pandemic.

What do you suggest as the main thing to be watching for to remain aware of when this thing may reach the point of no return? Do you feel that a pandemic is inevitable? Is it imminent? Time line?
Thank you so much, I am just trying to learn and appreciate your knowledge.

[pandemic_1918]

11. 1000 Answers

Northern Vietnam sent the CDC 1000 samples to see how bad things are.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04150501/H5N1_Evolving_Analysis.html

Things are clearly VERY bad. CDC might release info in a few weeks. My guess is that H5N1 has spread throughout Vietnam and is evolving quite rapidly. It is not as virulent, but much more transmissible. It will probably be transmitting like human flu by the fall.

Vietnam is equipping more hospitals for avian flu. The signs are everywhere. It is just a matter of how much of the news will be released. The 1000 samples will be a real wake-up call. My guess is that when they see what Vietnam really has, alerts will start to come out.

My guess is that there is quite a bit more than Vietnam and signals will start to come out fast and furious in the next several weeks.

[Mnemosyne]

13. Damn it, what have they done?

Thanks pandemic, from what I've been reading I'd bet you are right on. Guess we should stay tuned...

[zippy890]

6. virus 'could be adapting to humans'

with a mortality rate of 35%!

What's your opinion, Pandemic - do you think it has adapted to humans, which I take to mean human-to-human transmision?

Thanks for your posts on the subject, I always read them.

[pandemic_1918]

10. Human-to-Human Transmission

There has been human-to-human transmission in Vietnam and Thailand since last season's H5N1 outbreak began. However, the efficiency has improved quite a bit in the north. It is not as virulent, so much is being missed (many cases are more like a bad case of human flu).

The virus has been moving and shaking and there will be more recombination as birds migrate to the north for the summer.

There will be more hints in the "off season" and next fall will be a major killer.

[wildcat78]

12. Need to depopulate

With the world in the midst of peak oil, china and india coming on line, I bet that the "powers that be" want a good pandemic. That is one way of relieving the stress on our planet.

[Mnemosyne]

14. Welcome to DU!

I'm sure TPTB have their fingers crossed on this and are salivating at how much $$ can be made. Add the "War on Flu" to the list of future wars.