The oil supply tsunami alert

[4dsc]

http://www.energybulletin.net/5655.html

I wonder when the sheeple will wake up to all this??


If you study the production from existing oilfields, experts around the world agree that the decline is between 3 and 5 percent. This means that all the oilfields that today produce 84 million barrels per day, mbpd, will next year at this time produce 80.6 mbpd and in year 2030, 30 mbpd. In the World Energy Outlook 2004 the IEA predicts that we will need 121 mbpd in 2030. In other words, we need to find more then 90 mbpd in new production. “The world needs 10 new Saudi Arabia’s.” Someone might call me a Doomsayer, but if so I’m accompanied by Sadad Al Husseini, as this is a citation from him. He was until recently vice director of Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world.

[wallwriter]

1. "...will change life as we know it forever."

SO where are the questions on this issue at any Presidential press conference?

[rodeodance]

3. Leaders of countries have a moral obligation to lead-but they are

shunning this one (the US is for sure).

[mhr]

2. Seems Crystal Clear To Me - Mathew Simmons Agrees

So do many others.

[4dsc]

8. Its all about the upcoming shortages

I guess the message I'm getting lately is that oil producing countries and oil companies have OVERESTIMATED their total reserves and that we are seeing peak oil now.. Iraq overstated their reserves and may not have the 110 billion barrels but rather only about 42B.. That's very important and not too many people are paying attention..

[Barrett808]

10. His new presentation is posted: "An Energy Tsunami Ahead"

An Energy Tsunami Ahead
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/PESA%20Annual%20Meeting.pdf

[rooboy]

4. This is just a diversion to stop us worrying about gay marriage. n/t

[kevinmc]

5. HAHAHAHAHA

[iamjoy]

6. Greedy Oil Companies

Want us all to invest in them. If oil will be scarce, the price will go up and they will profit. If we all think oil will be scarce and invest in it, they will profit.

And if you were to ask Dubya about this, he'd just talk about why we had to drill in Alaska, ignoring the fact that that won't really solve the problem long term.

[Boo Boo]

7. Fortunately, I know how to

ride a horse.

[Dogmudgeon]

9. Alas ...

... you won't be able to afford to feed your steed after the energy shortage gets done with smashing the world economy into rubble.

And neither will I.

--p!

[chlamor]

11. kick

you are right

[neverforget]

12. Yeah! Rapture Time! Wooo HOO!!!

:sarcasm:

[arikara]

13. So do I...

but I don't have one to ride.

:cry:

[Javaman]

14. Once in a life time oppertunity...

There was the Atomic bomb, there was the First man on the moon, one secret, one public.

We are now on the threshold of that same type of forward leap for not just the US but for the world. In the past the US has had the resources and the money to attempt such undertakings.

As the worlds supply of a renewable energy source dwindles, one would think that such a monumental project, such as converting the whole US energy consumption to a new type of renewable energy would be within our grasp.

I believe it is, however, when you have a gov't that has based it's "energy program" around an energy source that is disappearing, one has to wonder where has gone the American can do spirit.

The Atomic bomb or the Moon shot were far from easy endeavors, frankly, when first proposed, they were met by many critics, stating it was impossible. Educated, cool heads prevailed and pushed forward our nation.

But both these past deeds were for motivated by war. WWII or the Cold War. Wouldn't be something to have something that was done primarily for the good of the world? Granted, we have made this mess that we are in, but out of something very bad, something very good could be achieved as well.

It's a sad thing to say, that only special interests control our gov't now and the concept of forward thinking has been stymied by a backward rightwing rapture cult, bent on exhausting the earths resources to encourage the end of times.

This is appalling on so many levels.

[strategery blunder]

20. All of those projects you mentioned were government funded.

However, we have a Yeehaw Oilman acting as our pretzeldent and a Congress that is bought and paid for by the fossil fuel energy industry. Who is going to pay for the Manhattan Project of alternative energy generation? Certainly not Bu$h, Cheney, and DeLay.

I defer the possiblility of something "very good" being achieved until the 20th of January 2009, when Bu$h will be forced out of office by term limits. Even so, the government can only fund the research and implementation of alternative energy at that point; the actual transition to non-fossil fuel-based energy will take years. By then, it'll be too late.

[wickerwoman]

21. Fortunately there are other governments besides the US one.

If Chinese, Japanese or German engineers come up with cheap renewable energy technology before we do, I'm sure they'll be happy to share it with us and at a very reasonable price. :sarcasm:

Whatever country nails it first will be the super-power of the 21st century. Too bad Bush blew our chances to make some cash for his oil buddies.

[psychopomp]

24. My yen is on the Japanese doing this first

More than any other they need to consider new energy sources as the vast majority of their energy requirements are met via the market.

[wickerwoman]

25. I heard somewhere that they just invented a nuclear powered wrist watch.

With their population density and the amount of food they have to import, I'll bet they're pretty motivated too. Looks like all those people who learned Japanese in the 80s weren't wasting their time.

[Javaman]

27. Pick up the recent Wired mag, very interesting article in there...

about just that. China will take the lead very soon in alt energy. While we are at a critical point in our history regarding our energy use, moron* fiddles our future away while china is actually looking towards the future.
They are going to leave us in the dust. Hmmm, better start learning Mandarin lol

[BeFree]

15. No doubt

The end of the age of oil is the most important question we as a society are facing. So, what are we doing about it? Well, we are getting control of all the known areas with oil sources. Other than that, nothing. We ain't even talking about it, and I think I know why: The eventuallity is just too awful too consider.

As long as we continue to hide it away, we can go on our A-merry-consumer ways without a care in the world. To face the facts would be anti-A-merry-consumeristic, eh?

[dArKeR]

16. Oil prices may double in three years, analyst says

One of the world's leading energy analysts on Monday called for an independent assessment of global oil reserves because he believed that Middle Eastern countries may have far less than officially stated and that oil prices could double to more than US$100 a barrel within three years, triggering economic collapse.

Matthew Simmons, an adviser to US President George W. Bush and chairman of the Wall Street energy investment company Simmons, said that "peak oil" -- when global oil production rises to its highest point before falling irreversibly -- was rapidly approaching even as demand was increasing.

"This is a new era," Simmons told a conference of oil industry analysts, government officials and academics in Edinburgh. "There is a big chance that Saudi Arabia actually peaked production in 1981. We have no reliable data. Our data collection system for oil is rubbish. I suspect that if we had, we would find that we are over-producing in most of our major fields and that we should be throttling back. We may have passed that point."

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2005/04/27/2003252222

No matter what one thinks the US Gov. is NOT full incompetent idiots. So America went into Iraq to steel their oil. I would guess Venezuela is next.

[dArKeR]

17. Falling oil production will change the world

The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the second Great Depression may be round the corner. But earlier this month, a group of ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English petroleum geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning of the end of the oil age.

They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Center because he is an industry man through and through, has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a vice-president of Fina and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2005/04/27/2003252207

[Bigmack]

18. What do we do, then?

Never mind the "leadership"... they're not gonna do shit.

I got a Prius, I live fairly simply.

I've got SS and a teacher's pension... and a nice chunk of portable money.

How do we protect what we've got?

[GettysbergII]

19. February 2005 SAIC Report to Department of Energy on Peak Oil

Here's a link to a 91 Page Report prepared in Feb of 2005 for the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) by Science Applications International Coporation (SAIC). If your not familiar with SAIC, it's one of the premier stealth organizations that the DoD and CIA funnel 'sensitive work' to and many a ex-CIA director has sat on its board of directors. It's not a coincidence that SIAC backwards is CIAs. This is a serious rightwing perspective report.

http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf
http://www.energybulletin.net/4638.html

INTRODUCTION

Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It fuels the vast majority of the world’s
mechanized transportation equipment – Automobiles, trucks, airplanes, trains,
ships, farm equipment, the military, etc. Oil is also the primary feedstock for
many of the chemicals that are essential to modern life. This study deals with the
upcoming physical shortage of world conventional oil -- an event that has the
potential to inflict disruptions and hardships on the economies of every country.
The earth’s endowment of oil is finite and demand for oil continues to increase
with time. Accordingly, geologists know that at some future date, conventional oil
supply will no longer be capable of satisfying world demand. At that point world
conventional oil production will have peaked and begin to decline.
A number of experts project that world production of conventional oil could occur
in the relatively near future, as summarized in Table I-1.1 Such projections are
fraught with uncertainties because of poor data, political and institutional selfinterest,
and other complicating factors. The bottom line is that no one knows
with certainty when world oil production will reach a peak,2 but geologists have
no doubt that it will happen.

Table I-1. Predictions of World Oil Production Peaking

Projected Date Source of Projection
2006-2007 Bakhitari
2007-2009 Simmons
After 2007 Skrebowski
Before 2009 Deffeyes
Before 2010 Goodstein
Around 2010 Campbell
After 2010 World Energy Council
2010-2020 Laherrere
2016 EIA (Nominal)
After 2020 CERA
2025 or later Shell
No visible Peak Lynch

1A more detailed list is given in the following chapter in Table II-2.
2 In this study we interchangeably refer to the peaking of world conventional oil production as “oil
peaking” or simply as “peaking.”

Our aim in this study is to
• Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting;
• Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is
such a unique challenge;
• Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort;
• Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking;
• Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation
scenarios.
• Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive
studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

[AlienGirl]

22. When oil is too expensive, the only cheap energy source will be us

Oil will be scarce and expensive, but people are plentiful and cheap. Watch for the return of slavery as the machine age winds down.

Tucker

[Conservativesux]

26. Watch for a return to Coal power. Thats my prediction.

Besides, what else is still in cheap abundance in the USA?

A: Coal.

[MontageOfFreedom]

23. Oh dear our oil does not look like its getting good....

It looks like the prices for fuel and more is going up. Luckily some cities already have alternative forms of fuel, and are endorsing them heavily. Even vegetable oil.

[DS1]

28. The world needs to give up internal combustion engines

period.

[yurbud]

29. Kerry nibbles at edges of this, but inexplicably doesn't say

"peak oil" or even that our oil supply will inevitably decline.