Canada government faces crucial test on Tuesday

[Minstrel Boy]

Canada government faces crucial test on Tuesday

Tue May 10, 2005 12:21 AM BST

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's political crisis could come to a crunch on Tuesday when Parliament votes on a motion censuring the minority Liberal government.

Opposition parties insist the motion, which instructs a parliamentary committee to "recommend that the government resign", is a matter of confidence. If it passes, they say, the government will have to resign, triggering an election.

But the Liberals say the vote is not a matter of confidence and will ignore the motion, which was introduced by the Conservative Party on Monday in its latest attempt to bring down a government whose popularity has been savaged by a corruption scandal.

...

But the three opposition parties -- even the New Democrats, who intend to vote against the motion -- have said it would be impossible for Prime Minister Paul Martin to maintain he had Parliament's confidence if the motion passed.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-05-09T232145Z_01_MOL979394_RTRUKOC_0_CANADA-POLITICS.xml

[Jack Rabbit]

1. Isn't the conventional wisdom that the government would win elections?

I'm not sure I understand why they would. The government is caught in some tacky-looking scandals.

However, the Conservative Party (the opposition) looks to be going through quite a bit of infighting.

What's up?

[Maple]

2. The Liberal party

is having a scandal. It's local, and not a big deal, but our Conservative opposition is acting like it's Armageddon in order to force an election.

An election nobody wants, and the Conservatives would lose...but that kind of reality has never stopped them before.

I hate minority govts. It's a constant battle of words, threats, backdowns, and then a repeat of the same, for months

[Jack Rabbit]

3. So, Harper is walking into a blunder with his eyes open. Is that it?

And we thought Bush was dumb.

[applegrove]

7. I think Harper has rabid right wing supporters and masters in the

neocon movement who think they could win any election and that now is the time to paint the liberals.. because this scandal was the last government's and has little if nothing to do with the present liberals in power.

They know that people in this country are truly & deeply liberal and love their social programs. And that the right cannot win on the domestic issues. And we never invade anyone unless it is genocide or to keep world peace. So the conservatives (neocons) have to go now on this issue and this scandal. Because they cannot win on the truths or the kind of country we want.

This is their only chance.

We all worked very hard to keep our country together and help out the poorer provinces. Only oil rich Alberta has anything to gain from making the country less federal. Them and the separatists in Quebec.

But Albertans have been having quite a time with the corporate cattle ranchers in the US who hide their own 'mad cows' and close the border to the two that have been found in Canada and then come to Alberta to buy cattle at rock bottom prices.

And the US Oil people in Alberta act like angels. But as peak oil gets worse and worse.. the machines will roll in and start 'cooking' all that Alberta Oil (it is all in tar sands..which is gravel & oil mixed, and has to be cooked to release the oil..which means the biggest stove top in the world will be Northern Alberta in a decade) and problems will creep to the surface. Environmental problems will likely be severe in the north. And we know that when big Oil really gets going they get nasty.

So it is now or never for the US interests. If they want to get neocons in Canada and undo federal ties and undo the health care and bankrupt the government.. they have to do it now. If they want to create the pseudo country of greater Alberta, they have to do it now. Soon enough mayhem will be erupting in the USA and elsewhere (as if it has not already started). And nobody will have tolerance for a group or party that purposely bankrupts the government.

But the biggest province, Ontario, which is really where the fight will be, has already had 8 years or so of conservative neocons. And they hated it. And they have undone most of the most horrid attacks on the poor that took place. So.. neocons really cannot win Ontario if the vote is on domestic issues. They have a history.

IMHO there is just no other issue 'outside' of domestic issues that the conservatives would have a hope of raising and putting to the forefront of Canadian consciousness. Neocons have already tried to cause a split by suggesting the election should be fought on fears of American aggression and takeover in Canada to split the NDP (leftist) from supporting the Liberals (liberal but fiscal conservatives). Didn't work.

And Canadians as a whole hate assholes.

[Jack Rabbit]

11. I hope Bush doesn't decide to invade Alberta

Are there any WMDs in Alberta? Doesn't matter. All he has to do is say there is. That worked for him once.

[Maple]

9. Yeah he is

Biggest scandal we've had in years...we don't have many, that's why...but the Harper Tories are going down in the polls instead of up.

So if he can't win under these circumstances, he never will...which is why he's itching to gamble.

[Jack Rabbit]

10. I was looking at a thread in the Canada forum the other day

It said that there is infighting within the Conservative Party between Steven Harper on the one hand and Peter McKay and Belinda Stonrach on the other. Could it be that McKay and Stonrach want this election to eliminate Harper from the Party leadership?

There really doesn't seem to be any purpose for this. The government isn't going to change hands and the Liberals are more likely to come out in a better position. Normally, I wouldn't think that anybody in the Conservative Party would want this election. But Harper is pushing for a confidence vote and nobody is restraining him.

This looks very strange.

[applegrove]

12. There is indeed a fight for the heart of the 'new' conservative party.

Stronagh I am sure is a true Canadian. Harper..not so much.

Stronagh is a great friend of the 'big dog'. I hope Harper ends up face down in the earth. And looses his leadership.

There was nothing wrong with the old conservative party, except that they were conservatives of course. They tanked when 'low pain threshold Mulroony' drove everyone nuts with his desire to be liked by people who nobody liked. And then Kim came along and volunteered the neocon adage 'that elections are no time to talk about important issues'. May have been common cocktail party talk.. in her circle of baby neocon & conservative friends but that was news to the voters.

I hope that Belinda gets the party back. Not because i want to see conservatives in power (which they may have a chance if they went back to their small L liberal ways) but because I cannot stand the sight of neocons in the news. They teach their hate. Where they can.

Oh - I hope that Martin & the NDP skew the ****tard if there is an election. Harper cannot win on the issues. I can just see the debates now: "Martin and NDP talking openly and at length about the issues & the future of our social programs and government spending while Harper tries to close down any discussion on the issues". It will be hilarious.

And big business took a hit by Harper's antics. They lost their tax cuts. Tax cuts went to small businesses...who will be creating all the jobs in the future anyway.

:rofl:

[Hand]

13. Yep, entirely likely

Peter (Pond Scum) McKay would sell his own grandmother to gain the leadership of the NeoCons, and Belinda (Shit for Brains) Stronach has hitched her wagon to his slimy star--they're horizontal, by the way. :puke:

Harper knows full well that he can trust McKay about as far as he can kick him, so he's constantly watching his back with these two while gambling on his only possible chance to become prime minister. And they're playing All Sweet Reason and trying to thwart Harper's attempt to bring down the government--mostly because it weakens Harper and makes them look good. Well, less repellent, anyway.

The whole gang of them are hypocrites and backstabbers, in short. They'd make great Republicans.

[stepnw1f]

8. 'Minority Government'

sounds familiar... kinda like the diaper heads running the show in the good ole US of Ass.

[Flucius]

19. Hogwash

The scandal is not local and it is a very big deal. One of the biggest scandals in history if not the biggest. Any time that much taxpayer money is STOLEN -- not misplaced, misspent or wasted, but STOLEN -- it is a very big deal. BTW, when the current prime minister is CLEARLY implicated -- to say nothing of many others whose culpability is less certain -- you cannot just ascribe this to the previous government.

An election nobody wants? Who cares what the people want?! The majority of Canadians are intellectually lazy. How hard is it to learn the party platforms, make a decision and spend 15 minutes walking to the polling station and back to mark an 'X' on a ballot?

The people will tolerate any amount of malfeasance because they've accepted on faith the media claims that the opposition will bring about the end of Canadian civilization if elected. People should objectively assess every major party. If the opposition is really that frightening then support one of the alternative parties, like the Greens. To support the status quo as the lesser of two evils is an act of cowardice.

As to the cost of the election, it would not be much more than the money wasted on the ad scandal, less than the helicopter cancellation and much less than the gun registry. Would anyone quibble about the cost of another presidential election if it meant the opportunity to toss Bush? Didn't think so!

And you don't know that the Conservatives would lose. The election will be close, with either a Conservative minority or Liberal minority. There is simply no other realistic possibility. So actually, the Conservative party has little to lose. They get either the status quo or a chance to form their own minority government. Harper is the only one taking a risk -- he will be deposed if they don't win -- but his chances won't necessarily get better if he waits.

[applegrove]

20. The last election the Liberals were asleep. They woke up for one weekend.

This election they will be awake the whole time. Harper doesn't have a chance.

Why in the polls the Liberals are ahead of them already. And what..it has been 3 ****ing weeks since the kickbacks came into the open? Or is it 5 weeks?

The Harperites have lost already.

[whistle]

4. Are the Tories in Canada the neo-conservatives and fundamentalists

...equivalents of the U.S. repukes? If so, that will be bad for North America if they win.

[Massacure]

5. Tories won't win.

Most Canadians don't want an election. The Tories will only shoot themselves in the foot by triggering it.

[whistle]

6. I hope you're right

[Amonester]

14. They're not the same. n/t

[applegrove]

15. They would be exactly that if they could. But the religious, fundies,

make up less than 20% of the population. The Quebecers just got rid of religions hegemony & elitism that ruled them for 300 years. That right there is almost a third of the population. Don't try and paternalize that lot and tell them they have to have 10 children again and live in poverty. Or that elites with all the money & power are a good thing.

Harper doesn't have the votes. Which does not mean we do not need to discuss religion and the role it can play in the lives of people. All ready Canada has adapted some civil and criminal law and handed it over to elders. The same with all sorts of cultural/religious laws. And of course there are serious issue about all sorts of fundamentalist and imposing their will on others.. and so the criminal courts take over then.

Many indigenous people have the option of getting 'seriously with nature' when they are convicted of petty crime. Instead of prison. As especially if they are youths. I think spending a year in the wilds of the north teaches anyone a great deal about life and priorities..and it builds strength and self-esteem.

So it is not as if the religious or cultural groups are being ignored and having power taken away from them. But nobody dominates like they do in the USA.

Canadians look at the culture of hate against homosexuals in the USA and barf. Yes Harper will try and use that (really a brain stem issues when god on one side and your own loins on the other both say no to homosexual activity). He has tried to grow his cultural base ..based on that issue. But many new Canadians know what hateful rules and norms will do to the pocketbook as well as the soul. And older Canadians have a great tradition of prioritizing peace-keeping and anti-poverty abroad. We like Africa just like we like our own poor. We are not as elitist as the USA is. You don't get much in the way of points here for running over anyone to get rich.

But all of the domestic issues work. And Canada is a hugely resource rich country. So there is much to share. And huge multicultural cities..none dominated too much by one group or anther. Mostly just dominated by multi-cultural-ism and really good public schools and business opportunity for anyone who wants to work dam hard.

[Hand]

16. Not really

Harper's been trying to make hay off the same-sex marriage issue, but it's kind of become a non-issue; none of the provinces that have legalized same-sex marriage have seen any great upheavals--in fact, it's more or less dropped off the radar. Seems that legalized same-sex marriage actually doesn't destroy the social fabric after all.

There's no real organized political/fundie religious alliance in Canada, at least not on the scale or of the type we see in the US. About the closest thing I've seen has been the influence that some Catholic bishops wield in some heavily Catholic provinces. There just aren't any organizations like Dobson's and Falwell's in Canada--yet, anyway.

The Conservatives do like to beat the drum about improving relations with the US, e.g., joining in on Star Wars, and would almost certainly poodle for Chimpy if they were to gain power. That alone could weaken them severely if it becomes an election issue--the Horsewanker's very little liked anywhere up here.

Harper's said very little indeed about anything beyond the ongoing sponsorship scandal because as others have observed, it's really all he's got. People are pretty well fed up with inadequate (by semi-welfare state standards) social services already and would have little enthusiasm for the Conservatives' actual policy proposals, domestic or foreign, once they were brought into the light.

Hope that helps. :boring: Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

[jim3775]

17. It's not really a no-confidence motion...

it's more of a symbolic one. The Liberals can ignore it and keep the govt intact.

About the conservatives, it’s an east-west split plain and simple. The oily Alberta conservatives are gung-ho for a vote, they live in this western echo chamber that makes them think they are going to win the next election (look at the last election when Harper said he was going to win a majority for proof of this). The Ontario conservatives, still reeling from their total loss to the liberals in the provincial election are more realistic about this, they realize that every time Harper opens his mouth about bringing down the govt another percentage point get shaved off his approval rating. Don’t expect any tories to vote against this tomorrow but ill bet there’s a "flu" going around.

As soon as the westerners finally realize that Harper is an unelectable dweeb the 'Peter-Belinda connection' will make their move.

[MrPrax]

18. Tories seem so stupid...

and cocky; kinda makes you wonder if they have a ace up their sleeve?

All of their nasty talking points are moral 'wedge' stuff; integrity, honesty, etc, but have provided nothing else to justify an election.

The thing that makes me wonder is that most of the 'privates' especially canada.com/global is 'slanting' their coverage with 'moral' emphasis on the obvious partisanship.

Why do I think some tacky little bombshell might pop up after the writ is dropped? Still a lot of Reformers in that mix and they probably didn't forget the good old days