STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 16 June

[ozymandius]

Thursday June 16, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 219 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 179 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 242 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1299
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 15, 2005

Dow... 10,566.37 +18.80 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq... 2,074.92 +5.88 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,206.58 +2.67 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% -0.01 (-0.29%)
Gold future... 430.90 +1.60 (+0.37%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Leading and Lagging Sectors
A Look under the Hood of the US Stock Market

While the overall stock market has quieted down over the last three weeks, there is a lot of action going on below the surface within individual sectors. This article includes a snap shot of some key sectors that should provide insight into the market’s behavior in the near term. The stocks dependent upon the US consumer are leading the overall stock market higher. Yet the failure of key sectors to follow through is enough to make one skeptical of the sustainability of this “prosperity” and the sustainability of the bull market in stocks. Can the stock market head higher without the participation of industrials, transports, and even US finance and home finance companies? Can the sectors that led the market higher from its October 2002 bottom continue to lead it higher even after two and a half years? Can consumer stocks lead the stock market higher with technical chart patterns that are both emotional and erratic and more characteristic of a stock market top than a sustainable bull market? Can they lead the market higher with the US consumer incurring more voluntary debt for consumer goods and housing as well as involuntary debt for military costs? In short, is this sustainable? I think that the answer to these questions will be known soon. Key charts are at critical junctures where their short term behavior may establish the longer term trend.

-cut past many individual sectors-

Today’s Market

The major indices were up marginally today on healthier volume, as the market made a “U turn” at mid day. Another 52-week high for the Dow Jones US Home Construction index was achieved on an analyst upgrade. There will be several homebuilders reporting their quarterly results over the next few days and the trend has been for homebuilders and retailers to gap up on the day of their positive earnings announcements. Bucking the trend toward weak gains today were biotechnology companies. Retailers were also up strongly. So once again, the US consumer is bravely leading the way.

If there is a significant change of trend that has been occurring in the markets, it is the action of the US bond market, which seems to have turned in the short term. The 10 and 30 year bonds seemed to have changed direction decisively even though today’s action showed little change. Note the action in the 10-year note yield. If this is the start of a new trend as it appears, it could be significant and not good to the US consumer and US stocks.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Candide]

2. Oooooh look at gold go

looks like i'm going to win my latest office bet :)

[UpInArms]

23. Gold surges to 7-week high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38519.4256507755-836815604&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Metals futures resumed their upward push Thursday morning with gold surging to a seven-week peak and copper setting a new contract high. Gold for August delivery rallied $4.30 to $435.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July copper added 2.30 cents to trade at $1.572 a pound.

Welcome to DU (and the SMW) Candide!

:hi:

[Candide]

29. Thanks UIA

And thanks to the others who make the SMW possible for us lurkers :)

[AnneD]

39. Morning Marketeers

:donut: and all you lurkers. Welcome Candide. I agree. I think commodies are due for a bigger jump (too late to get in on this rally now).
I went to visit my brother early this week (why I didn't post) and lo and behold, I found out where I will put some of my investment money. They are laying a huge electrical grid out in brother's sleepy rural area. Bro may look and speak country simple but he is sharp as a tack in business. He has learned electrical engineering (hands on-no degree)and worked with the concrete co (and oil and gas, and werecker-to name a few) out there. He said they were laying huge pipe (he swears they are laying the groundwork for a possible nuclear plant too). He took me on the back road tour. They are also laying out (roughing) roads and electricity and water are in.
Think I will be investing some of my money (that I WAS putting in 403B and 401K)in the undeveloped land out there. I can wait 10-15 years for developement, but Bro said I wouldn't have to wait that long to see a good profit at the rate he has seen growth in the past 4 years. I am looking forward to going out there again with hubby and maybe a bidness partner or two.It was much more fun than WS. Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[RawMaterials]

3. Bristol-Myers execs indicted

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. prosecutors Wednesday said they have charged two former Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. executives with conspiracy and securities fraud in connection with a scheme to artificially boost the drugmaker's revenue and profit.

Former Chief Financial Officer Frederick Schiff and Richard Lane, who ran the company's worldwide medicines group, were charged with "planning and executing" the manipulation of prescription drug inventory to inflate results between 1999 and 2001.

Neither the company nor any of its current executives will be charged in the inventory probe under the $300 million settlement announced Wednesday with Christopher Christie, the U.S. attorney in Newark, New Jersey.

snip..

Christie began investigating the company after it admitted in 2002 it had inflated its revenue by $2.5 billion and its earnings by almost $1 billion over the three-year period by coaxing wholesalers to buy more of its drugs than they could hope to sell.

Bristol stock tumbled after the scheme was disclosed, and Bristol-Myers later had to restate its earnings for the three-year period.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/15/news/fortune500/bristol.reut/index.htm

[UpInArms]

48. Bristol-Myers Squibb to Pay 300 Millions to Settle Fraud Probe

http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/newsbyid.asp?id=23741&cat=Business+News&more=%2Fnews%2Fmore-business-news.asp

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., the fifth-largest U.S. drugmaker, will pay 300 million to avoid prosecution for inflated
sales and settle a three-year investigation, news reports said Wednesday.

Prosecutors in Newark, New Jersey, accused the company of selling excess inventory to wholesalers to meet sales goals, Bloomberg financial news service reported. Bristol-Myers Squibb was charged with conspiracy to commit securities fraud, but it won't be prosecuted if it makes required reforms in the next two years.

The 300 million dollar payment brings to 839 million dollars the amount Bristol-Myers will spend to resolve criminal and regulatory probes and investor litigation related to its sales. The New York- based company also agreed to appoint an independent director, a non- executive chairman and a retired judge to monitor the agreement.

Prosecutors also indicted two former company executives. Frederick Schiff, who was senior vice president and chief financial officer, and Richard Lane, former executive vice president of BMS worldwide medicines group, were charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. They are scheduled to surrender to authorities Thursday, prosecutors said.

...more...

[cosmicdot]

61. interesting tidbit: Louis V. Gerstner, the Carlyle Group chairman...

sits on the Bristol-Myers Squibb Board of Directors

Gerstner was a director at Squibb rom 1986 to 1989; was chairman of the Board at IBM Corporation from 1993 to 2002; and was IBM CEO from 1993 until March 2002.


Interesting proxy proposals brought forward by concerned stockholders ... of course, the Board, like all the other Boards, endorsed voting AGAINST these proposals.


http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14272/000119312505058646/ddef14a.htm#toc77473_33

[RawMaterials]

4. Oil Rises Despite OPEC Action

Crude oil prices approached record highs yesterday despite an OPEC decision to increase production limits in an effort to dampen prices.

Oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna boosted their daily production ceiling by 500,000 barrels, to 28 million barrels, effective next month. The cartel authorized its president to approve another increase of 500,000 barrels a day before its next meeting in September if prices remain high.

OPEC's decision was largely symbolic because oil analysts said the cartel already is producing slightly above its new production quota. "The market is not accepting that they can produce enough, that they have the spare capacity to lower prices," said John P. Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk management for Fimat USA Inc. in New York.

snip..

"We are hearing a lot from the White House asking us to increase our production," al-Sabah said. "Now we are increasing our production."

Analysts said Saudi Arabia is the only OPEC member with the ability to pump any significant quantity of additional oil. But the kingdom has repeatedly said its customers have not asked for it. Much of the additional capacity is in heavier grades of oil for which there is little additional refining capacity, analysts said.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/15/AR2005061502252.html


I guess their is not any of the good stuff left. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

17. It's a hand puppet circus.

The lips do no match their words. Good morning!

:donut:

[RawMaterials]

5. Union: GM retirees' benefits are off limits

Union workers at General Motors may be resigned to digging deeper into their own pockets for health care, but they say they'll fight to protect retirees from taking the same hit.

The issue is one of the sticking points in negotiations between the automaker and the United Auto Workers as the company tries to shift more health-care costs to employees to reduce its $5.6 billion medical bill.

"If we're going to survive, we know it's going to come with a price," said Mike Sheridan, president of UAW Local 95 in Janesville, Wis.

"But if they try to mess with our retirees, they're asking for war. We don't want a war, but we would fight that."

GM has pressed the UAW to assume more health-care costs since it posted a $1.1 billion first-quarter loss.

snip..

Benny Riggs, a UAW member for 29 years, knows union workers who retired in the 1970s and haven't gotten cost-of-living increases on their pensions. They collect pensions of about $700 a month, in addition to Social Security and Medicare benefits.

"If they shift some of the cost , what does that do for someone who's only getting $700 or $800 a month? It doesn't leave a lot for food," said Riggs, a shop committeeman for Local 2166 at GM's Shreveport, La., assembly plant.

Another reason workers resist cutting retiree benefits is that about half of the 111,000 UAW members at GM become eligible to retire in the next three years.

Riggs becomes eligible to retire next year, his 30th at GM. His decision could hinge on how much his out-of-pocket costs go up for health care

more...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0506160130jun16,1,5310412.story?coll=chi-business-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.59 Change -0.06 (-0.07%)

Dollar Rallies on Bad US Data? - Only a Matter of Time Before We Get Back To Fundamentals

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1600&Itemid=39

The fact that the gap between price action and fundamentals continues to widen tells us that right now dollar bulls have only one thing on their mind and that is to break 1.20 at all costs. At the same time, we see that there are some big players trying to defend that same level and they have a good reason to want to do so - there is rumored to be 4-5 yards (or billions) of stops between 1.20 and 1.1950. However once dollar bulls have their way, it is only a matter of time that we will get back to fundamentals. For the second month in a row, there were not enough foreign inflows to fund the trade deficit (TIC data came in at $47.4B). This time around, even though China and Japan increased their purchases of US treasuries (probably related to auction demand), Caribbean hedge funds, which were big buyers of dollars in March became the largest sellers in April. The fact that there is more money flowing out of the country than into it is a big negative for the dollar. There is no denying that the last 2 months of foreign demand was the weakest in 6 months. Excluding the dip in August of 2004, the purchases were the weakest since Nov 2003. With lackluster job growth, weak retail sales, and a struggling manufacturing sector, the only support for the dollar is the Fed's rate hikes. Yet the latest inflation data on both a consumer and producer price level have been very tame, with headline inflation actually falling, giving the Fed an even better reason to stop raising rates at a measured pace amidst all of the recently negative releases. The industrial production and the Empire state survey did move higher, which shows that the manufacturing may be recovering, but after contracting the previous month, the mild improvements are hardly anything to write home about.

As if we even needed another reason to call today's price action completely unjustified, in an op-ed article released this morning, ECB President Trichet clarified the recent rate cut debate by saying that the central bank remains "vigilant and realistic" and are not "preparing the market for any rate decrease." There is also an article in Market News quoting one of the German "Wise men" (unnamed) as saying that the euro has now reached equilibrium and that a further drop is not justified.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

(sporadic posting ahead)

[RawMaterials]

7. China’s fixed investment jumps 28% in May

China’s fixed-asset investment for May grew 28.2 percent from a year earlier, a higher-than-expected figure that may call into question efforts to rein in spending on property development, roads and factories.

The median forecast of five economists polled by Reuters had been for a rise of 25 percent from a year earlier.

Fixed-asset investment in April was up 26.5 percent on a year earlier while annual growth for March was 26 percent.

So far this year, fixed-asset investment growth is running higher than 2004’s full-year rate of 25.8 percent, despite repeated warnings by officials that they need to be on guard against a rebound.

The May data was likely boosted by a low base a year earlier, when annual investment growth slipped to 18.3 percent after hitting a peak of 53 percent in the first two months of 2004.

more..



http://news.ft.com/cms/s/750391d4-de12-11d9-a42f-00000e2511c8.html

[UpInArms]

8. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jun 16	8:30 AM		Building Permits	May	-	2125K	2106K	2148K	-	
Jun 16	8:30 AM		Housing Starts		May	-	2100K	2050K	2038K	-	
Jun 16	8:30 AM		Initial Claims		06/11	-	325K	330K	330K	-	
Jun 16	12:00 PM	Philadelphia Fed	Jun	-	10.0	10.0	7.3	-

with 8:30 blanks filled in:

Jun 16	8:30 AM	Building Permits	May	2050K	2125K	2106K	2148K	2148K	
Jun 16	8:30 AM	Housing Starts		May	2009K	2100K	2050K	2005K	2038K	
Jun 16	8:30 AM	Initial Claims		06/11	333K	325K	330K	332K	330K

Note the adjustment to last week's initial claims (+2,000) so that they could say the increase was "only 1,000" claims.

[UpInArms]

9. 8:30 reports in

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,750 TO 335,000

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. MAY BUILDING PERMITS DOWN 4.6% TO 2.050 MLN UNITS

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. APRIL STARTS REVISED DOWN TO 2.005 MLN VS 2.04 MLN

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. MAY HOUSING STARTS UP 0.2% TO 2.009 MLN UNITS

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 58,000 TO 2.64 MLN

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

8:30am 06/16/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 1,000 TO 333,000

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise 1,000 to 333,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38519.3543058218-836808858&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits rose by 1,000 in the week ending June 11 to 333,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number was slightly higher than economists' expectations and is the highest since May 28. The four-week average of jobless claims rose 2,750 to 335,000 while continuing claims for the week ending June 4 rose 58,000 to 2.64 million.

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. May Building Permits down 1.3% to 1619K

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38519.3542383912-836808852&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Construction of new U.S. houses rose 0.2% in May to a seasonally adjusted 2.009 million annualized units, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. April's new construction was revised lower to 2.005 million units from the 2.04 million reported last month. Economists were looking for starts to slip to 2.03 million from April. Starts of new single-family homes rose by 4.7% to a 1.704 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Building permits for new housing fell 4.6% to a 2.050 million annual rate, the biggest drop since June 2004. Permits for single-family homes dropped by 1.3% to a 1.619 million annual rate.

[UpInArms]

41. Philly Fed DROPS into NEGATIVE -2.2

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B403D47CC%2D9264%2D4460%2DBD5E%2DC837A20E3E30%7D&siteid=mktw

June Philly Fed index weakens sharply
Falls to -2.2 from 7.3, first negative since May 2003

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region weakened unexpectedly in June, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday.

The Philly Fed's activity index fell to -2.2 in June from 7.3 in May.

This is the first negative reading since May 2003.

The drop was unexpected. Economists were expecting a slight increase to 9.4, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Treasury prices reversed direction and moved higher after the report was released. Treasurys improve on weak Philly Fed data.

The index has been positive for two straight years. Readings over zero indicate expansion in the sector

In May, the index fell to 7.3 from 25.3, the largest one-month decline since January 2001.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. US factory slowdown shows sector still struggling

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-16T175008Z_01_N16331668_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-2.XML

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic retreated for the first time in two years, data on Thursday showed, suggesting the manufacturing sector has yet to exit a "soft patch" of growth.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business activity index dropped to -2.2 in June -- the first negative reading in 25 months -- from 7.3 in May, confounding Wall Street forecasts for an advance to 10.0.

A measure below zero points to contraction in the sector.

"This is consistent with a weakening of the manufacturing sector," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast Ltd.

Economists had been hopeful after an improvement in the New York Fed's regional survey that the Philly Fed's data would show a similar rebound.

"It caught everyone a bit off guard," said Ruskin. "The Philly Fed is the most reliable of the regional factory indicators outside the national survey," he said, referring to a poll published by the Institute for Supply Management out in recent weeks.

...more...

The day these "surprised economists" get their freakin' pink slips will be a good day.

[RawMaterials]

11. Japan mulls cutting work hours to spur fertility

The Japanese government is considering implementing considerably shorter working hours for public servants with young children, in a bid to coax workers into having more babies.

The proposed initiative comes on the heels of a grim statistic released earlier this month: Japan's total fertility rate - the number of children per woman - fell to a historical low of under 1.29 in the 2004 calendar year. The rate stood at 4.54 in 1947 when the government started the survey.

A growing number of Japanese companies have been implementing policies to ease the burden on working mothers and fathers, such as in-house childcare, flexi-time and babysitter vouchers. Some critics have said that the government has been slow in following the private sector's example.

The country's population is expected to peak next year, and the bleak demographic situation is expected to depress economic growth by about 0.8 percentage points a year from 2010.

Under the proposed new plan - which would require a revision to a Japanese law concerning public servants - working hours would be reduced to four hours a day, or 20 hours a week, for parents with children aged six and under. Children in Japan normally begin elementary school when they are six years old.

Currently, full-time national public servants have to work at least 40 hours a week, though individuals with children under the age of three are allowed to take off two hours per day.

more..


http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20050615_21434_26240.html

[UpInArms]

13. KPMG reportedly at risk of indictment - Obstruction of Justice and more

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B594B6303%2DDC2F%2D47DC%2DA8C6%2DC4BD3668864F%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- KPMG LLP is facing the possibility of a criminal indictment from federal prosecutors for obstruction of justice and the sale of abusive tax shelters, The Wall Street Journal said Thursday.

That would potentially kill off one of the four remaining big accounting firms, prompting an internal debate at the U.S. Justice Department as to the desirability of that outcome, the report said.

Federal prosecutors and KPMG's lawyers are now locked in high-wire negotiations that could decide the fate of the firm, according to lawyers briefed on the case, the report added. See full story at WSJ.com (subscription).

<snip>

KPMG said it took "full responsibility" for unlawful conduct by former partners during the 1996-2002 period.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

14. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Still Have Problems

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Big mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made progress last year toward correcting financial problems but continue to be a cause for concern following their recent accounting scandals, the regulator that oversees them says in a report issued Wednesday.

snip..

OFHEO, which levied a record $125 million civil fine against Freddie Mac and ordered Fannie Mae to boost its capital cushion against risk by some $5 billion, continues to investigate Fannie Mae's accounting. The agency noted in its report that the company's board and management have taken action to correct deficiencies in internal financial controls, corporate governance and accounting systems. The Securities and Exchange Commission also is investigating the company's accounting and the Justice Department is pursuing a criminal investigation.

"Overall, Fannie Mae's condition warrants significant supervisory concern," the report says.

It describes Freddie Mac's condition as improving but continuing "to warrant supervisory concern."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050616/mortgage_giants.html?.v=2

[RawMaterials]

15. U.S. accounting needs to improve

The state of American accounting is much better than it was before the Enron scandal, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said Wednesday in a report to Congress and President George W. Bush. But it still needs a lot of improvement.

The commission staff recommended that steps be taken to change accounting for leases, pensions and derivatives, all aimed at making it easier for investors to determine the accurate state of balance sheets in U.S. companies.

"Is the balance sheet transparent?" said Donald Nicolaisen, the chief accountant of the SEC. "The answer is that it was more transparent than it was before Sarbanes-Oxley." He added, "But it is not nearly as transparent as it ought to be."

The report, ordered by Congress as part of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act that imposed new rules on accountants and companies, was prompted by Enron's use of so-called special purpose entities to keep billions of dollars in debt off its balance sheet.

snip..

Nicolaisen said it was a personal goal to get started on reducing that degree of complexity. He noted that a company that owned securities issued by another company could report them now in four different ways, with widely varying values that might bear no relation to the actual value of the investment. He said that in general accounting rules should move toward reporting market values of financial investments, rather than being based on historical costs.

The report criticized the current state of pension accounting rules, which allow companies to smooth earnings and thereby distort the value of their pension plans. For the companies studied, it said, the pension funds were underfunded by about $86 billion. But on their financial statements, they showed net assets of $91 billion.

It suggested companies be required to consolidate their results with that of their pension plans. Nicolaisen said there might be ways to distinguish gains and losses in the pension plan from those of the operating business.

more..


http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/06/15/business/sec.php

[RawMaterials]

16. The coming trade war and global depression (Henry C K Liu)

Many historians have suggested that the 1929 stock market crash was not the cause of the Great Depression. If anything, the 1929 crash was the technical reflection of the inevitable fate of an overblown bubble economy. Yet stock market crashes can recover within a relatively short time with the help of effective government monetary measures, as demonstrated by the crashes of 1987 (23% drop, recovered in nine months), 1998 (36% drop, recovered in three months) and 2002 (37% drop, recovered in two months

There was no quick recovery after the 1929 crash. Structurally, what made the Great Depression last for more than a decade from 1929 until the US entry into World War II in 1941 were the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which put world trade into a tailspin from which it did not recover until the war began. While the US economy finally recovered through war mobilization after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, most of the world's market economies sank deeper into war-torn distress and did not fully recover until the Korean War boom in 1951.

Barely five years into the 21st century, with a globalized neo-liberal trade regime firmly in place in a world where market economy has become the norm, trade protectionism appears to be fast re-emerging and developing into a new global trade war of complex dimensions. The irony is that this new trade war is being launched not by the poor economies that have been receiving the short end of the trade stick, but by the US, which has been winning more than it has been losing on all counts from globalized neo-liberal trade, with the European Union following suit in lockstep. Japan, of course, has never let up on protectionism and never taken competition policy seriously. The rich nations need to recognize that their efforts to squeeze every last drop of advantage out of already unfair trade will only plunge the world into deep depression. History has shown that while the poor suffer more in economic depressions, the rich, even as they are financially cushioned by their wealth, are hurt by political repercussions in the form of either war or revolution, or both.

snip..

Economic nationalism
The recent rise of the euro against the dollar, the first appreciation wave since its introduction on January 1, 2002, is the result of an EU version of the 1985 Plaza Accord on the Japanese yen, albeit without a formal accord. The strategic purpose is more than merely moderating the US trade deficit. The record shows that even with a 30% drop of the dollar against the euro, the US trade deficit continued to climb. The strategic purpose of driving up the euro is to reduce it to the status of the yen, as a subordinated currency to dollar hegemony. The real effect of the Plaza Accord was to shift the cost of support for the dollar-denominated US trade deficit, and the socio-economic pain associated with that support, from the United States to Japan. What is happening to the euro now is far from being the beginning of the demise of the dollar. Rather, it is the beginning of the reduction of the euro into a subservient currency to the dollar to support the US debt bubble.

snip..

Market impotence against trade imbalance
The IMF, which has been ferocious in imposing draconian fiscal and monetary "conditionalities" on all debtor nations everywhere in the decade after the Cold War, is nowhere to be seen on the scene in the world's most fragrantly irresponsible debtor nation. This is because the US can print dollars at will and with immunity. The dollar is a fiat currency not backed by gold, not backed by US productivity, not backed by US export prowess, but backed by US military power. The US military budget request for Fiscal Year 2005 is $420.7 billion. For Fiscal Year 2004, it was $399.1 billion; for 2003, $396.1 billion; for 2002, $343.2 billion; and for 2001, $310 billion. In the first term of George W Bush's presidency, the US spent $1.5 trillion on its military. That is more than the entire gross domestic product of China in 2004. The US trade deficit is about 6% of its GDP, while it military budget is about 4%. In other words, the trading partners of the US are paying for one and a half times the cost of a military that can some day be used against any one of them for any number of reasons, including trade disputes. The anti-dollar crowd has nothing to celebrate about the recurring US trade deficit.

Six and a half years since the launch of the European Monetary Union, the eurozone is trapped in an environment in which monetary policy of sound money has in effect become destructive and supply-side fiscal policy unsustainable. National economies are beginning to refuse to bear the pain needed for adjustment to globalization or the EU's ambitious enlargement. The European nations are beginning to resist the US strategy to make the euro economy a captive supporter of a rising or falling dollar as such movements fit the shifting needs of US economic nationalism.

snip..

Rising resistance to globalization
Geopolitically, trade globalization was beginning to face complex resistance worldwide by the second term of the Clinton presidency. The momentum of resistance after Clinton would either slow further globalization or force the terms of trade to be revised. The Asian financial crises of 1997 revived economic nationalism around the world against US-led neo-liberal globalization, while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) attack on Yugoslavia in 1999 revived militarism in the EU. Market fundamentalism as espoused by the United States, far from being a valid science universally, was increasingly viewed by the rest of the world as merely US national ideology, unsupported even by US historical conditions. Just as anti-Napoleonic internationalism was in essence anti-French, anti-globalization and anti-moral-imperialism are in essence anti-US. US unilateralism and exceptionalism became the midwife for a new revival of political and economic nationalism everywhere. The Bush Doctrine of monopolistic nuclear posture, preemptive wars, "either with us or against us" extremism, and no compromise with states that allegedly support terrorism pours gasoline on the smoldering fire of defensive nationalism everywhere.

Alan Greenspan in his October 29, 1997, congressional testimony on "Turbulence in World Financial Markets" before the Joint Economic Committee said that "it is quite conceivable that a few years hence we will look back at this episode ... as a salutary event in terms of its implications for the macro-economy". When one is focused only on the big picture, details do not make much of a difference: the Earth always appears more or less round from space, despite that some people on it spend their whole lives starving and cities get destroyed by war or natural disasters. That is the problem with macro-economics. As Greenspan spoke, many around the world were waking up to the realization that the turbulence in their own financial markets was viewed by the US central banker as having a "salutary effect" on the US macro-economy. Greenspan gave anti-US sentiments and monetary trade protectionism held by participants in these financial markets a solid basis and they were no longer accused of being mere paranoia.

Ironically, after the end of the Cold War, market capitalism has emerged as the most fervent force for revolutionary change. Finance capitalism became inherently democratic once the bulk of capital began to come from the pension assets of workers, despite widening income and wealth disparity. The monetary value of US pension funds is more than $15 trillion, the bulk of which belongs to average workers. A new form of social capitalism emerged that would gladly eliminate the worker's job in order to give him or her a higher return on his or her pension account. The capitalist in the individual is exploiting the worker in the same individual. A conflict of interest arises between a worker's savings and his or her earnings. As Pogo used to say: "The enemy: they are us." This social capitalism, by favoring return on capital over compensation for labor, produces overinvestment, resulting in overcapacity. But the problem of overcapacity can only be solved by high-income consumers. Unemployment and underemployment in an economy of overcapacity decrease demand, leading to financial collapse. The world economy needs low wages the way the cattle business needs foot-and-mouth disease.

more .. much .. more

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GF16Dj01.html

[ozymandius]

18. markets are open for giving people the bidness

9:30
Dow 10,559.08 -7.29 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,076.27 +1.35 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,206.58 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 41.21 +0.06 (+0.15%)
NYSE Volume 2,369,000
Nasdaq Volume 51,854,000

[ozymandius]

19. New Home Construction, Jobless Claims Up

-excerpt-

The Commerce Department reported that construction of new homes and apartments edged up to a seasonally adjusted annual of 2.009 million units, up from 2.005 million units in April, a month when construction activity had jumped by 9.4 percent.

The increase, the fifth in the last six months, was slightly lower than the 0.6 percent gain that economists had been forecasting. But it still showed that homes and apartments are being built at a sizzling pace that has raised some concerns that a speculative bubble may be developing in housing similar to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s.

In other economic news, the Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose 1,000 last week to a total of 333,000. The small increase came after a steep decline in the previous week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that low mortgage rates were contributing to some "froth" in local markets. But he discounted the worries of some private economists that a national housing bubble could be developing similar to the boom on Wall Street that pushed stock prices to all-time highs before the bubble burst in early 2000, wiping out more than $5 trillion of wealth.

Greenspan, however, said he was concerned about the dramatic increase in interest-only mortgages and the introduction of relatively exotic forms of adjustable-rate mortgages.

-more-

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050616/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AiJjcPWNDa8f9apbw.foGTGyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

[ozymandius]

20. Goldman Sachs Posts Sharp Dip in 2Q Profit

NEW YORK - Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Thursday reported a sharp drop in second-quarter earnings as investment banking and trading revenues fell. Profits came in below analysts' estimates.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Henry M. Paulson Jr. blamed tough market conditions.

The firm's competitors were less affected by the difficult trading environment. On Wednesday, Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. reported a 5 percent increase in second-quarter earnings on the strength of its institutional stock trading business. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reported similarly strong earnings a day earlier.

Goldman Sachs said that net income for the three months ended May 27 totaled $865 million, or $1.71 a share, down 27 percent from $1.19 billion, or $2.31 a share, a year earlier.

-more-

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050616/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_goldman_sachs;_ylt=AkLTtbzH9C7htjg7BI38yyOyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

[AnneD]

40. Say hey Ozy,

how are we going to afford a new house ifin we ain't got no job????? Don't ya just love it.

[ozymandius]

49. Aye. There's the rub.

Personally, there's a really nice cardboard box I've got my eye on. It's been appraised at $180k. But I think the current owner might be amenable to $165k.

[AnneD]

55. HEY.....

I found a nice couple of boxs and I have some left over duct tape....I am going for a split level ranch look. I found the really good dumpsters nearby. Talk about being in the sweet stuff.

[UpInArms]

57. Oh AnneD!

Do you think you could add an extra box-room for me?

I think it's going to get really cold and I may not be able to keep me and mine from freezing in the winters ....

I can have multiple residences that way and then I could do a Poppy Bush and evade state taxes by declaring my residence to be in Texas.

[AnneD]

59. Ozy....Come on down!!!!!

you can homestead your box in Texas and they can't repo it AND we have no income tax. Weather is good and I have a good stash of newspapers for insulation (our local paper had its subscription scandal several years ago).

[ozymandius]

21. Study puts business bankruptcy rates higher

Business bankruptcy rates are up to nine times higher than government data show, says a study out today asserting that the new bankruptcy law might hinder entrepreneurship because it does not reflect the true impact of small-business failures.

Researchers, including a prominent bankruptcy expert at Harvard, say the study challenges a widely held perception that a 20-year rise in bankruptcies has been driven by spend-thrift consumers.

The study estimates that 19.5% of filings are at least partly business-related, vs. the 2.3% rate given by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, which compiles statistics for the federal judiciary. That higher rate equaled as many as 315,000 business filings in 2003, vs. 37,000 reported by AOC, the study says.

-more-

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/2005-06-15-bankrupt-usat_x.htm?csp=N009

[UpInArms]

22. 10:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,562.61 -3.76 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,082.75 +7.83 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,208.15 +1.57 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.119 +0.04 (+0.10%)

NYSE Volume 245,361,000
Nasdaq Volume 318,068,000

10:00AM: Major indices still trade in split fashion as the bulk of sector leadership remains mixed... The Materials sector has again paced early action to the upside, amid continued momentum in steel stocks, strength in diversified chemicals and upside Q2 guidance from Potash Corp. (POT 103.81 +7.47)... Technology has also traded higher, getting a boost from Semiconductor and Hardware, while Energy has extended yesterday's gains as oil prices continue to climb...

Interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial and Utilities, however, have been unable to shrug off rising bond yields while Consumer Staples has been under pressure after CSFB downgraded the tobacco sector to Neutral...NYSE Adv/Dec 1242/1289, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1331/997

9:40AM: Market opens in lackluster fashion, as investors digest mixed economic data... May housing starts were up a fractional 0.2% to a 2.009 annual rate, slightly below forecasts of 2.050 mln, but marked the fourth time in five months that starts have surpassed the 2.0 mln annual rate... Another report under the microscope that has so far stalled early follow-through buying interest in homebuilding stocks (-0.2%) has been May building permits, which fell 4.6% to 2.050 mln (consensus 2.106 mln) but checked in above the level of starts, as has been the case in recent months...

[Roland99]

27. The fairies must be on steroids to keep this thing propped up so.

[UpInArms]

24. GM slides as Goldman sees increasing downside risk

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38519.4317358449-836816159&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM) fell $1.33, or 3.7%, to $35.01, making it the biggest point and percentage loser among Dow industrials components, after Goldman Sachs said it sees increasing downside risk in the automaker's stock. Analyst Robert Barry said the stock's recent rise in response to potential labor concessions over healthcare issues is unwarranted. Since June 10, when the United Auto Workers agreed to discuss healthcare issues, the stock had gained 14% as of Wednesday's closing price. "General Motors' positive share price implies that reported pension and/or "other post-retirement employee benefit" liabilities will be cut dramatically over time, otherwise the stock price would be at zero," Barry said. "That makes recent strength in GM shares unwarranted, short of some indication that obligations will be cut over and above aggressive cuts that are already price in at recent lower levels." Also weighing on GM shares, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAW dismissed GM demands for concessions on their healthcare package.

[UpInArms]

26. GM drops on union warning

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B2A05D8C8-F612-439D-8601-4A6BD08D73E5%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of General Motors Corp. (GM) fell 3.8% to $34.95 in early trade Thursday on reports that United Auto Workers leaders called the company's cost-cutting goals unrealistic. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, UAW officials have dismissed GM demands that they make concessions on their health care package by the end of the month, warning they would not accept any unilateral moves by the company that would change their labor contract. GM's contract with the UAW does not expire until 2007.

[UpInArms]

54. GM falls as union deadline blurs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3EA96E1F%2D1EB7%2D4893%2DB2B0%2D18DEF1E07116%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - General Motors Corp. shares fell Thursday with the United Auto Workers saying they are in no hurry to row back on health care and Wall Street analysts reminding investors there are no quick fixes to GM's many problems.

GM's stock (GM: news, chart, profile) , closing down 2% at $35.62, had jumped more than 5% this week on word that the company had put a month-end deadline on striking a deal with the United Auto Workers. But analysts and union officials didn't see any imminent concessions.

When asked about the June 30 ultimatum that sparked a bull rush in the stock, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger told the New York Times: "Certainly, that's not our deadline. We do not have a deadline. We are a key player in this, right?"

As far as helping out GM by having union workers pay deductibles and monthly premiums at the same scale as their supervisors: "That's not in the cards," he told the newspaper.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Crude-oil futures in morning rally

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38519.4264160417-836815668&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures headed toward $56 a barrel Thursday morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following the news that U.S. crude supplies declined last week. July-dated crude contracts were last at $55.80 a barrel, up 23 cents. On Wednesday, the Energy Department said crude supplies fell 1.8 million barrels in the week ended June 10.

[UpInArms]

28. *Co Stupidity Alert:

10:28am 06/16/05 WHITE HOUSE: NO BACKING OFF OF SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM

[ozymandius]

30. Everything's fine now. Never mind those indictments.

11:36
Dow 10,580.18 +13.81 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,084.89 +9.97 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,209.80 +3.22 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 41.23 +0.08 (+0.19%)
NYSE Volume 669,024,000
Nasdaq Volume 782,138,000

11:00AM: Renewed buying interest, spearheaded by leadership in financial, lifts the major averages to session highs... In focus all week, amid better than expected earnings from Lehman Brothers (LEH 96.59 +1.15) and Bear Stearns (BSC 102.73 +1.39) as well as a Q2 profit warning from Morgan Stanley (MWD 51.88 +1.27), the financial sector has again made headlines following Goldman Sachs' (GS 101.19 +2.00) Q2 report... However, even though Goldman's Q2 earnings missed analysts' expectations by $0.19, the stock has surged 2.0%...

While Goldman has attributed its quarterly miss to "challenging market conditions," the investment bank has stated that the economic outlook remains favorable, its client franchise remains broad and deep, and that it retains a leadership position in critical businesses... It appears investors have also taken into account the fact that many analysts expected Goldman, given its larger exposure to trading, to report its first decline in quarterly profit in about three years...NYSE Adv/Dec 1779/1114, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1581/1068

[DoBotherMe]

31. KICK n/t

[ozymandius]

32. 12:20 numbers and blather

Dow 10,563.77 -2.60 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,081.07 +6.15 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,208.31 +1.73 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 41.09 -0.06 (-0.15%)
NYSE Volume 833,189,000
Nasdaq Volume 952,674,000

12:00PM: Market holds onto modest gains midday amid spirited industry leadership and encouraging economic data... May housing starts rose a modest 0.2% to 2.009 units (consensus 2.050 mln), but marked the fourth time in five months that starts have surpassed the 2.0 mln annual rate... May building permits also missed forecasts, falling 4.6% to 2.050 mln (consensus 2.106 mln) and below April's 22-year high of 2.148 mln, but were still above the level of starts, suggesting that starts will remain at high levels in the months ahead...

Also, weekly jobless claims rose a modest 1K to 333K (consensus 330K), marking the fifth straight week the data have been in the narrow range of 330-335K... Meanwhile, of the seven economic sectors trading higher, the Materials sector has led the charge amid solid momentum in steel, gold and aluminum while upside Q2 guidance from Potash Corp. (POT 103.81 +7.47) has provided a boost to the nonmetallic mineral mining group... Energy has also been among the best performing sectors, benefiting from higher oil prices, while leadership in Semiconductor and Hardware have helped Technology post a respectable gain...

Providing a lift to chip stocks has been Integrated Device Technology's (IDTI 11.81 -0.72) proposal to acquire Integrated Circuit Systems (ICST 22.15 +2.41) for $1.7 bln as well as Banc of America's upgrade on the analog chip sector to Overweight from Neutral... Consumer Discretionary has also traded higher, as a surge in Homebuilding (+1.1%) offsets a 2.7% decline in General Motors (GM 35.37 -0.97), which warned the UAW it may reduce health benefits... Financial has also been an influential leader to the upside, getting a lift from widespread gains in Brokerage...

[ozymandius]

33. Uh-oh. 2007 looks to be a really bad year for ARMs.

The Trillion-Dollar Bet

American homeowners have made a trillion-dollar bet that mortgage rates will remain near record lows for at least a few more years. But with some interest rates already rising, economists worry that the bet could turn bad.

The problem is that new types of mortgages that hold down monthly payments for families - helping many buy homes that they would not otherwise be able to afford - also require potentially far higher payments in future years.

The bill will soon start to come due in a serious way, as the initial period of fixed payments, typically set at artificially low rates, expires for millions of homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages.

-cut-
But in 2007, the portion will soar, with $1 trillion of the nation's mortgage debt - or about 12 percent of it - switching to adjustable payments, according to the analysis.

-more one sentence paragraphs at link-

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/16/realestate/16arm.html?ei=5088&en=d4ea9a4dd01af4d5&ex=1276574400&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=print

[AnneD]

60. These are the poor suckers...

that are going to be caught with their pants down. Save your pennies Marketeers, you may be able to pick up a few bargins soon enough.

[ozymandius]

34. Paint will be dry any time now...

1:14
Dow 10,567.66 +1.29 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,082.47 +7.55 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,209.05 +2.47 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 40.91 -0.24 (-0.58%)
NYSE Volume 984,464,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,109,970,000

1:00PM: Indices improve their stance somewhat, as the Dow turns slightly positive and market internals still suggest a modestly upbeat sentiment... Advancers on the NYSE outpace decliners by 17 to 13 margin while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a 17 to 11 edge over declining issues... A 2-to-1 ratio of up to down volumes on both the Big Board and the Composite, however, underscores a more bullish bias...

Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade well above initial support levels but modest buying interest have not been enough to push the major averages through resistance levels of 10609, 1213 and 2095, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1773/1350, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1712/1180

[ozymandius]

35. Big Labor: Closer to a Breakup

Five dissident unions took a major step toward a possible breakup of the AFL-CIO on June 15 when they announced the formation of a new labor alliance called the Change to Win Coalition. The move comes after the governing bodies of three of the unions -- the Service Employees; Food & Commercial Workers; and UNITE HERE, the needletrades union -- have formally authorized their leaders to disaffiliate with the AFL-CIO if they deem it necessary. The executive board of a fourth union, the Teamsters, will vote on a similar resolution in July, says James Hoffa, its president.

The dissidents created the new coalition as part of their campaign to force dramatic change on a declining labor movement, in the hope of reversing decades of slumping membership (see BW Online, 5/19/05, "Is Labor Headed for Splitsville?"). Although the alliance members initially supported AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney when he took office in 1995, they now think labor needs new leadership and direction. They plan to oppose his platform when Sweeney runs for reelection at the AFL-CIO's quadrennial convention in Chicago next month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/nf200506150487db016;_ylt=AonjHzxQYOxAA4YjCIrVS1.yBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Isn't this one of Bush's goals?

[ozymandius]

36. Idiot Watch: Snow: U.S. to Monitor Hedge Funds More

FRANKFURT, Germany - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday that U.S. authorities were working on increased monitoring of hedge funds, while his German counterpart called for increased trans-Atlantic dialogue on the issue.

Speaking after discussions Thursday with Finance Minister Hans Eichel, Snow said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was working on new rules to make hedge funds more transparent.

"We need to continue to monitor hedge fund developments in the U.S. They are becoming a larger force ... changing what they do and how they operate, including their customer base," Snow said.

more from this fool's piehole

There's a big difference between watching them and actually regulating them.

[DoBotherMe]

37. KICK n/t

[TrogL]

38. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)

Current TSE:




2005-05-16 Monday, May 16 0.787216 USD
2005-05-17 Tuesday, May 17 0.78964 USD
2005-05-18 Wednesday, May 18 0.792519 USD
2005-05-19 Thursday, May 19 0.791954 USD
2005-05-20 Friday, May 20 0.791954 USD
2005-05-23 Monday, May 23 0.795039 USD
2005-05-24 Tuesday, May 24 0.792896 USD
2005-05-25 Wednesday, May 25 0.791077 USD
2005-05-26 Thursday, May 26 0.788644 USD
2005-05-27 Friday, May 27 0.794597 USD
2005-05-30 Monday, May 30 0.794597 USD
2005-05-31 Tuesday, May 31 0.799233 USD
2005-06-01 Wednesday, June 1 0.80186 USD
2005-06-02 Thursday, June 2 0.801732 USD
2005-06-03 Friday, June 3 0.801089 USD
2005-06-06 Monday, June 6 0.803406 USD
2005-06-07 Tuesday, June 7 0.80186 USD
2005-06-08 Wednesday, June 8 0.803859 USD
2005-06-09 Thursday, June 9 0.796876 USD
2005-06-10 Friday, June 10 0.800512 USD
2005-06-13 Monday, June 13 0.795039 USD
2005-06-14 Tuesday, June 14 0.796559 USD
2005-06-15 Wednesday, June 15 0.806647 USD
2005-06-16 Thursday, June 16 0.808016 USD






The loonie is still gaining on most currencies presumably on no news is good news after the long and fruitless struggle by the Conservatives to bring down the government. Now with the Conservatives themselves plotting to keep things running, presumably world markets see this as a good sign.

[UpInArms]

43. 3:05 EST numbers and blather (markets irrational?)

Dow 10,576.12 +9.75 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,085.70 +10.78 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,210.55 +3.97 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 41.76 +0.61 (+1.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,364,723,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,467,628,000

3:00PM: More of the same for stocks, as the Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the upside... Hardware (+2.0%) remains technology's best performing sub-sector, as Apple Computer (AAPL 37.74 +0.61) holds onto solid gains fueled by reports that Michael Dell may be interested in licensing AAPL's Mac OS... Software (-0.2%), however, has been a weak spot for technology, as a loss in Electronic Arts (ERTS 57.69 -1.37) offsets a modest gain in Adobe Systems (ADBE 32.28 +0.28)...

ERTS has sold off amid reports that Ubisoft Entertainment - 20% of which is owned by ERTS - wants to remain independent while ADBE has climbed ahead of its Q2 earnings report after the bell... NYSE Adv/Dec 1991/1220, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1838/1137

2:30PM: Major indices continue to trade in split fashion, as stocks drift sideways over the last 30 minutes... Bonds, however, have recently climbed to session highs following comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig... The 10-year note is now up 5 ticks to yield 4.08% as Hoenig calls for a wide 3.5% to 4.5% neutral fed funds rate and says inflation data should be watched "carefully."... At the high end (4.5%), such additional Fed tightening would result in six more 25-basis point rate hikes... NYSE Adv/Dec 1955/1242, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1741/1221

[Zomby Woof]

44. What was it...?

3 years ago all these dire predictions that the Dow would fall below 5,000. Hm.

I am not sure what watching the stock market this closely and obsessively can do constructively. The bond market deserves more scrutiny, especially as interest rates will inevitably creep back up.

[UpInArms]

50. US Treasuries up, Philly Fed survey turns negative

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-16T192413Z_01_N16544902_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned higher on Thursday after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's June regional economic survey showed a contraction for the first time in over two years.

But the survey of factories in the highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region in and around Philadelphia also showed that optimism about the six-month outlook was higher than last month, softening the report's effect on the bond market.

The price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 9/32 higher in price to yield 4.07 percent compared with 4.11 percent on Wednesday.

Traders said that in the near term, they expect benchmark yields to trade within a 4.00-to-4.25-percent range after several sessions of falling prices and rising yields.

<snip>

Given that the Philly Fed survey is seen as perhaps the most reliable of the regional U.S. manufacturing surveys, the question is whether the weakness in Thursday's report will be reflected in June national factory data due early next month.

...more...

The SMW is more than just the day's market movements :shrug:

[UpInArms]

45. Fed aiming at 3.5-4.5 percent funds rate -Hoenig

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-16T185052Z_01_N16361231_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-HOENIG-UPDATE-1.XML

WICHITA, Kan., June 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank should raise interest rates to between 3.5 and 4.5 percent and get there "sooner rather than later" if the economy stays strong, a top Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.

"Most judge it (the neutral rate) to be somewhere between 3-1/2 percent and 4-1/2 percent," Kansas City Fed President Hoenig said, referring to an interest rate level which neither helps nor hinders growth.

"In that context we would, I think, in the long term want to be somewhere within that range. And as the economy has grown well, we want to be in that range sooner rather than later," he told the Wichita Area Bankers Forum in a speech.

He also spelled out that the Fed could slow down its policy action if the economy weakened but speed up if growth jumped.

...more...

Wonder if this freak of nature read the Philly Fed report?

[UpInArms]

46. More GM Junk on the way? GMAC sets $1.48 bln auto asset-backed notes

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-16T190829Z_01_N16363874_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-GMAC-ABS.XML

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - General Motors Acceptance
Corp. priced $1.48 billion in asset-backed securities supported
by loans it made to car dealers to finance their inventory, a
source familiar with the deal said on Thursday.

GMAC is the finance arm of General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Credit Suisse First Boston, Deutsche Bank Securities and
ABN AMRO jointly led the deal's underwriting group that
includes Daiwa, Harris Nesbitt, KeyBanc Capital Markets and TD
Securities, the source said.

The deal was increased in size from an initially planned
$1.23 billion to meet investor demand, the source said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. Crude futures close at a 2-month high ($56.58 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38519.6341146528-836833631&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- July-dated crude futures closed at their highest level since April 22, adding $1.01 to settle at $56.58 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The market continued to react to the latest report on U.S. crude supplies, which declined nearly 2 million barrels last week.

[ozymandius]

51. 3:35 and drifting....drifting....

Dow 10,583.25 +16.88 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,088.87 +13.95 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,211.49 +4.91 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 40.76 -0.39 (-0.95%)
NYSE Volume 1,510,968,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,601,658,000

3:00PM: More of the same for stocks, as the Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the upside... Hardware (+2.0%) remains technology's best performing sub-sector, as Apple Computer (AAPL 37.74 +0.61) holds onto solid gains fueled by reports that Michael Dell may be interested in licensing AAPL's Mac OS... Software (-0.2%), however, has been a weak spot for technology, as a loss in Electronic Arts (ERTS 57.69 -1.37) offsets a modest gain in Adobe Systems (ADBE 32.28 +0.28)...

ERTS has sold off amid reports that Ubisoft Entertainment - 20% of which is owned by ERTS - wants to remain independent while ADBE has climbed ahead of its Q2 earnings report after the bell... NYSE Adv/Dec 1991/1220, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1838/1137

2:30PM: Major indices continue to trade in split fashion, as stocks drift sideways over the last 30 minutes... Bonds, however, have recently climbed to session highs following comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig... The 10-year note is now up 5 ticks to yield 4.08% as Hoenig calls for a wide 3.5% to 4.5% neutral fed funds rate and says inflation data should be watched "carefully."... At the high end (4.5%), such additional Fed tightening would result in six more 25-basis point rate hikes... NYSE Adv/Dec 1955/1242, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1741/1221

[UpInArms]

53. Hiya Ozy!

Am back working at the computer - so am looking at the shiny coins again :D

:hi:

[ozymandius]

58. Hi there UIA!

I got busy toward the close. It looks like the fairies are nickel and diming those numbers up every day.

See you tomorrow.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

52. 3:37 EST numbers and blather (everybody's happy!)

Dow 10,584.02 +17.65 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,088.61 +13.69 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,211.45 +4.87 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.076 -0.39 (-0.95%)

NYSE Volume 1,520,537,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,612,257,000

3:30 Stocks continue to trade at improved levels going into the close, as the indices show resilience near key resistance levels... Even though volume on the NYSE has only recently surpassed 1.0 bln shares, blue chips continue to trade near 3-month highs, as the S&P is less than 1 point away from breakeven on the year... Meanwhile, a pick up in volume at the Nasdaq heading into options expiration tomorrow has provided a bit more conviction behind today's upside moves in technology, but even if the Nasdaq closes with a 0.6% gain, it will still be off about 4.0% for 2005... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2070/1172. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1860/1143.

the buck:

Last trade 88.71 Change +0.07 (+0.08%)

Settle 88.65 Settle Time 23:36

Open 88.90 Previous Close 88.65

High 88.99 Low 88.29

Last tick: 2005-06-16 15:08:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[RawMaterials]

56. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10578.65 +12.28 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2089.15 +14.23 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1210.93 +4.35 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.076% -0.39

NYSE Volume 1,753,422,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,840,810,000


Close: The stock market opened in split fashion amid mixed economic data, but leadership from a number of sectors and a rebound in bonds helped the indices close near session highs... Before the open, May housing starts checked in with a modest 0.2% to a 2.009 annual rate (consensus 2.050 mln) while May building permits also missed economists' forecasts, falling 4.6% to 2.050 mln (consensus 2.106 mln)... However, both of the Commerce Dept.'s reports still reflected strong growth in the housing, as homebuilders remain on pace to record their best year since 1978...

Also providing a floor of support for stocks was benign unemployment data, as weekly jobless claims rose a statistically insignificant 1K to 333K (consensus 330K), marking the fifth straight week the data have been in the narrow range of 330-335K... However, an unexpected decline in the June Philadelphia Fed index, which posted its first negative reading (-2.2) since May 2003 and came in well below expectations of 10.0, failed to corroborate the expansion evidenced in yesterday's NY Empire State Index and took some steam out of the market's already lackluster efforts...

But since the Philly Fed doesn't provide a consistent read for the national ISM figure, coupled with a six-month outlook suggesting that the slowdown may be temporary and a rebound in bonds, buyers showed enough tenacity to close seven out of ten economic sectors closed higher... The benchmark 10-year note, which got an additional boost following comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig, closed up 3 ticks to yield 4.08%... Pacing the way higher for the second consecutive session was Energy, as crude oil futures ($56.58/bbl +$1.01) closed near their best levels of the day...

Also surging more than 1.0% was the Materials sector, amid strong follow-through buying interest in gold, copper, aluminum and steel while upside Q2 guidance from Potash Corp. (POT 103.81 +7.47) provided a boost to the nonmetallic mineral mining group... Financial was the most influential leader to the upside, taking advantage of a 1.5% surge in the Brokerage group following Goldman Sachs' (GS 102.45 +3.26) Q2 report...

Even though Goldman missed analysts' expectations by $0.19, several analysts - many of which expected profits to decline for the first time in about three years due to declines in trading volatility and slower investment management activity - were out positive on the stock and Goldman's growth prospects throughout the session... Also providing some spirited leadership was Technology, which was strong across the board... Hardware was the best performing sub-sector, surging amid reports that Michael Dell may be interested in licensing Apple Computer's (AAPL 37.98 +0.85) Mac Operating System...

Semiconductor was also a focal point after Banc of America's upgraded the analog chip sector to Overweight from Neutral and Integrated Device Technology (IDTI 11.51 -1.02) announced plans to acquire Integrated Circuit Systems (ICST 21.77 +2.03) for $1.7 bln... Consumer Discretionary also traded higher, as a 1.3% surge in Homebuilding helped overshadow a 2.1% decline in General Motors (GM 35.37 -0.97)... GM warned the UAW that it may reduce health benefits by as much as $2.0 bln over the next two years unless the UAW agrees to cut costs... Health Care, in focus all day after Pfizer (PFE 28.59 +0.16) announced plans to buy Vicuron Pharmaceuticals (MICU) for $1.9 bln in cash, was also strong...

Providing additional sector support was Wyeth (WYE 43.51 +0.32), which received FDA approved for its antibiotic Tygacil, AmerisourceBergen (ABC 68.02 +0.81), which affirmed its FY05 and FY06 EPS outlook, and a 2.4% surge in Biotech... Telecom Services, however, closed lower in part to reports that SBC Communications (SBC 23.95 -0.06) will take a pretax charge of $236 mln in Q2 to end a service agreement with WilTel Communications... Utilities was also weak, as valuation concerns sparked consolidation in several utility stocks (i.e. EXC, PEG and AEP) trading near 52-week highs, while Consumer Staples also showed relative weakness, losing some ground after a German court ruled against parts of Wal-Mart's (WMT 49.35 -0.50) ethics code... DJTA +1.1, DJUA -0.2, DOT +0.6, Nasdaq 100 +0.5, Russell 2000 +1.1, SOX +0.5, S&P Midcap 400 +0.9, XOI +1.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 2197/1086, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1993/1035

3:30PM : Stocks continue to trade at improved levels going into the close, as the indices show resilience near key resistance levels... Even though volume on the NYSE has only recently surpassed 1.0 bln shares, blue chips continue to trade near 3-month highs, as the S&P is less than 1 point away from breakeven on the year... Meanwhile, a pick up in volume at the Nasdaq heading into options expiration tomorrow has provided a bit more conviction behind today's upside moves in technology, but even if the Nasdaq closes with a 0.6% gain, it will still be off about 4.0% for 2005...NYSE Adv/Dec 2070/1172, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1860/1143