STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 21 July

[ozymandius]

Thursday July 21, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 184 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 213 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 277 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1334
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 20, 2005

Dow... 10,689.15 +42.59 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq... 2,188.57 +15.39 (+0.71%)
S&P 500... 1,235.20 +5.85 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.18% -0.01 (-0.29%)
Gold future... 422.10 +1.90 (+0.45%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Fed Targets Long Rates and Real Estate…and China

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress today, “Our baseline outlook for the U.S. economy is one of sustained growth and contained inflation pressures… In our view, realizing this outcome will require the Federal Reserve to continue to remove monetary accommodation.” Mr. Greenspan is saying inflation pressures are well contained, but the Fed still needs to keep raising interest rates. So far in this cycle of rate increases, the Fed has been impotent in their efforts to raise long-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve has raised the target for the overnight bank lending rate from 1% to 3.25% since June last year, but during the same period the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has dropped 40 basis points. With reference to the “interest rate conundrum,” Mr. Greenspan commented, “Such a pattern is clearly without precedent in our recent experience.”

Increases to the Fed Funds rate have not impacted the long end of the Treasury curve because the Asian countries keep buying our ten and thirty-year debt paper, thereby holding interest rates low. By purchasing an inordinate amount of long-term treasuries, China, Japan, and all the other exporting countries actually end up setting our long-term interest rates. By purchasing our debt, interest rates remain low and the American consumer keeps on consuming more and more inexpensive goods, especially from China.

-cut-

A Brief Pause…

I’m finding it most difficult to write today as I spent most of the morning listening to Mr. Greenspan in front of Congress while monitoring my trading positions. Through most of the morning the markets were fairly quiet, but since the Fed Chairman finished his testimony, a great deal of volatility has entered the markets. The dollar was strong early in the session reaching a high of 90 on the U.S. dollar index (due to continued rate hikes), but has since fallen to 89.20, down a half-point from yesterday’s close. The euro, Swiss franc and pound made noteworthy turns to the positive in today’s late trading.

-cut to the closing paragraph, 'cause it's a doozie-

In front of Congress Mr. Greenspan said today, “We certainly cannot rule out declines in home prices, especially in some local markets. If declines were to occur, they likely would be accompanied by some economic stress, though the macroeconomic implications need not be substantial.” The macroeconomic implications “need not be substantial” in my mind registers as a “hope” that overvalued real estate doesn’t collapse in a waterfall decline if China dumps our Treasury paper forcing long-term interest rates to shoot higher with no prior warning. Mr. Greenspan has been in his little conundrum with interest rates because he can’t tell China to stop buying long-term Treasuries. Similarly, Treasury Secretary Snow tells China the time to revalue their currency is “NOW”, but he can’t tell them what to do either. If China decides to revalue their currency tomorrow and simultaneously decide not to buy any more U.S. Treasury debt, it will be Mr. Snow that will have to figure out a new way to finance our federal deficits, or put another way, find another country that will lend us the money that has been coming from China. The deeper we go into debt with our foreign creditors, the less we have control over our own destiny…the debtor is slave to the lender. When will they get a clue?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[RawMaterials]

2. China launches shake-up of yuan

The new rules scrap the yuan's peg to the dollar, and tie it to a basket of currencies, the central bank said.

In effect, this strengthens the yuan by 2.1%, to 8.11 to the dollar.

snip..

In an announcement on state television, the government said that from Friday the yuan would be allowed to trade in a tight range of 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies.

However, it did not indicate which currencies they would be.

In a move that seems to be coordinated with the Chinese decision, Malaysia has also scrapped its currency's link with the dollar.

Risk warning

The revaluation came a day after US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned that China faced a "very serious" risk to its economy if it did not allow its currency to rise in value.

Senior US politicians had threatened to impose tariffs against China if it did not revalue its currency.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4703477.stm

[54anickel]

14. HAHA! That's rich, trying to give Greenspin credit for this from his

one statement that he has made numerous times in the past. Yep, this time it sunk in, they listened to him and made the move. :crazy:

I'd expect that from CNBC, but BBC?

The revaluation came a day after US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned that China faced a "very serious" risk to its economy if it did not allow its currency to rise in value.

[UpInArms]

16. LOL!

Meanspin is so scary :rofl:

:scared:

:rofl:

[ozymandius]

34. Greenscam threatening you is like being threatened by a burlap sack.

Now the real threat: what will this do to prices at Wal-Mart and other major importers of cheap crap?

[54anickel]

47. Knowing Wal-Mart, it will do nothing to their prices, but will put the

screws to employees again. More work for less money out of less employees. That's their mantra after all - More for Less. :puke:

"We're talking LOW"

[UpInArms]

55. Stocks slip after yuan revalued - Squal-Mart down 1.4%

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-21T135826Z_01_N21531989_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-STOCKS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday after China loosened its yuan currency exchange rate against the dollar, which could squeeze profits of companies that source heavily from China, such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Wal-Mart fell 1.4 percent to $49.31 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Explosions in three underground railway stations also weighed on markets, overshadowing better-than-expected earnings reports from U.S. companies, including soft-drink maker Coca-Cola Co. (KO.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

...more...

[ozymandius]

76. just awful

[UpInArms]

50. Has-Been Partisan Hack expresses confusion

10:52am 07/21/05 GREENSPAN: CHINA MOVE IS GOOD FIRST STEP

10:52am 07/21/05 GREENSPAN: CHINA FOREX MOVE 'GOOD FIRST STEP'

10:49am 07/21/05 GREENSPAN: FED STILL SEES SOME SLACK IN LABOR MARKET

10:37am 07/21/05 GREENSPAN DOWNPLAYS IMPORTANCE OF FLAT YIELD CURVE

the barf-o-rama continues

[UpInArms]

65. Says economy not slowing, contrary to forecasting signal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B11887420%2D4C67%2D45C6%2DB394%2D338695E86D2B%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to keep inflation at bay, despite warnings from financial markets that purport to show slower growth ahead, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday.

Some analysts have warned that a flattening yield curve -- a narrowing of spreads between short- and long-term interest rates -- is signaling a slowdown as it has before most economic slumps. But Greenspan argued otherwise.

Because of changes in financial markets over the decades, the yield curve is no longer a fool-proof forecasting tool, he told the Senate Banking Committee on the second day of his semiannual testimony on the state of the economy.

"The evidence very clearly indicates that its efficacy as a forecasting tool has diminished very dramatically because of economic events," Greenspan said.

<snip>

Greenspan said that the Fed's goal is to ensure "maximum sustainable growth" and that the best way to do that is to keep inflation he means wages under control.

...more...

[UpInArms]

66. HAS BEEN PARTISAN HACK STATES CPI OVERSTATES INFLATION

11:52am 07/21/05 GREENSPAN: CPI IS BIASED UPWARD BY LESS THAN 1%

[UpInArms]

67. Has-Been Partisan Hack says Middle Class to pay for Top 1% Tax Cuts

12:00pm 07/21/05 GREENSPAN: TAX CUTS, SPENDING MUST BE FULLY PAID FOR

12:00pm 07/21/05 GREENSPAN TESTIMONY CONCLUDES

[ozymandius]

80. Has-Been Partisan Hack Concerned About Pension Issues

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Any more moves by companies to dump troubled pension plans on the financially strapped agency that insures them for working men and women would be troubling but shouldn't threaten the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday.

Greenspan made his remarks to the Senate Banking Committee after he delivered what may be his final economic outlook to Congress. He plans to step down early next year after 18 years on the job.

The Fed chief was asked by Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., what the impact on the economy would be if more companies were to dump their pension plans on the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., an agency that is running a record deficit that tops $20 billion and which recently assumed the obligations of the United Airlines pension plans.

An additional pension burden for the PBGC "clearly is negative," Greenspan told Bunning. "I think it is a worrisome thing for American taxpayers, needless to say."

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050721/greenspan.html?.v=2

[ozymandius]

83. compounded confusion

Web Results 1 - 10 of about 66,100 for Greenspan confused. (0.50 seconds)

Alan Greenspan Confused by Economic Data? - The National Ledger
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, recession might be the more realistic danger.
The army of number-crunchers at the Fed does not give Greenspan the ...
www.nationalledger.com/commentary/article_1392.shtml - 17k - Cached - Similar pages

The Oakland Press: Auto/Business: Even Greenspan confused by bond ...
Even Greenspan confused by bond market gyrations. Web-posted Feb 19, 2005.
NEW YORK - The way the bond market has been behaving lately shows why looks can ...
www.theoaklandpress.com/ stories/021905/bus_20050219004.shtml - 24k - Cached - Similar pages

Fleck on Greenspan
In my opinion, in his speech Greenspan has confused technology with the bubble,
the very same bubble that he has created. He has in essence been reading the ...
www.fleckensteincapital.com/old_raps/friend_or_foe.htm - 15k - Cached - Similar pages

Alan Greenspan News
Alan Greenspan Confused by Economic Data? Friday April 29, 2005:. Alan Greenspan
weighs tax policy. Thursday April 28, 2005:. Alan Greenspan: Nobody likes ...
alan-greenspan-news.newslib.com/ - 17k - Cached - Similar pages

News Dissector Blog » Your Letters and Comments
"I don't know why Greenspan's confused. The last time America polluted the world
economy with vast amounts of debt (Johnson's Guns and Butter Vietnam ...
www.newsdissector.com/blog/ 2005/06/09/your-letters-and-comments/ - 51k - Cached - Similar pages

Can You Explain The Shrinking Spread Between Bonds?
The current market has Alan Greenspan confused and calling the situation a conundrum.
I had been expecting the 10yr yield to move higher all year but it has ...
www.mortgagesaver.org/forum/ can-you-explain-the-shrinking-spread-between-bonds-vt561.html - 13k - Cached - Similar pages

Jack Kemp: Alan Greenspan's conundrum
Greenspan may be confused, but markets know precisely what they are doing, and
this bodes well for the United States and world economies. ...
www.townhall.com/columnists/jackkemp/jk20050620.shtml - 53k - Cached - Similar pages

Robert Novak: Greenspan's final days
... is described by close onlookers as confused by the economic data. ... The army
of number-crunchers at the Fed does not give Greenspan the statistical ...
www.townhall.com/columnists/ robertnovak/rn20050509.shtml - 55k - Cached - Similar pages

Alan Greenspan's Conundrum - ICMA-RC/VantageLink
Alan Greenspan called it a "conundrum" when he testified recently before the
congressional ... While the Fed Chairman may be confused about what's going on, ...
www.icmarc.org/xp/news/economicregulations/74069017.xml - 14k - Cached - Similar pages

CSC - Michael Ruse is Just Confused!
Michael Ruse is Just Confused! By: Michael J. Behe ... Recently, Neil S. Greenspan,
a professor of pathology at Case Western Reserve University, ...
www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/index. php?command=view&program=CSC%20Responses&id=1214 - 16k - Cached - Similar pages

[UpInArms]

22. China yuan move is just first step

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-07-21T130653Z_01_PEK349716_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ECONOMY-CHINA-YUAN-PROCESS-DC.XML

BEIJING (Reuters) - Financial markets have waited years for reform of China's currency policy, but Thursday's scrapping of the yuan's dollar peg is only the first step in what will be a long, slow process of liberalisation.

The move, announced by China's central bank, revalues the yuan by 2.1 percent, to 8.11 per dollar, and ties it to a basket currencies of China's major trading partners.

It may disappoint foreign officials and manufacturers who had hoped for a bolder initial move, but was in line with the views of many analysts who predicted a go-slow approach to overhauling one of the last big remnants of China's planned economy.

"They have introduced a very modest appreciation to kick the whole thing off," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Financial Corp. in London.

"There could be another adjustment in a few months but I do not think they will want to get into a timetable here."

<snip>

Frank Gong, head of research at JP Morgan Securities in Hong Kong, said he expected further appreciation of 5 percent by the end of the year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. BlowJob spews

9:45am 07/21/05 SNOW: U.S. TO MONITOR CHINA'S CURRENCY FLOAT

9:46am 07/21/05 SNOW: NEW YUAN RATE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GLOBAL STABILITY

9:44am 07/21/05 SNOW: U.S. WELCOMES CHINA REVALUATION

(added more spew)

[54anickel]

39. When's he gonna start bitchin' that it ain't enough? Wasn't he spouting

off about how the Yuan is at least 40% undervalued, and the US wanted to see 10%? WTF is his definition of global stability anyway? I'm still waiting for the lame call of how this will help our trade imbalance by increasing our exports (of what?) and all that other BS. Sh*t, it's just gonna make stuff more expensive.

Now the buck can resume it's track downward to the worthless POS that it has become and I don't think the BoJ is gonna be able or willing to help out as much on this one - no need to with her other Asian trading partners following along with China's move.

[UpInArms]

44. more from the barf-o-rama

10:21am 07/21/05 SNOW: REVALUATION PUTS CHINA ON THE RIGHT PATH

10:18am 07/21/05 SNOW: CHINA WILL HAVE "AMPLE ROOM FOR FLEXIBILITY'

10:16am 07/21/05 SNOW: REVALUATION IS GOOD NEWS FOR CHINA

When do BlowJob become employed by China?

[UpInArms]

98. more split-pea spew - not worried

2:17pm 07/21/05 SNOW: NOT WORRIED ABOUT YUAN MOVE EFFECT ON TREASURIES

Snow says U.S. still attractive to foreign capital

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T182020Z_01_WBT003503_RTRIDST_0_CHINA-USA-YUAN-ADJUSTMENTS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - The United States will continue to attract foreign capital even if China's currency revaluation reduces that country's need for U.S. investments, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday.

"I think we'll continue to be able to attract capital from around the world," Snow told CNBC in an interview, stressing the size and depth of U.S. bond markets made them resilient to changes in individual countries' buying patterns.

The Treasury chief declined to say what impact the yuan revaluation would have on the U.S. trade deficit, but said the shift would likely impact on currency values across the Pacific Rim and help mitigate global economic imbalances.

[UpInArms]

52. Long-term bond ETF drops on yuan reform

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.4547310532-838976335&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (TLT) fell 1.3% to $92.90 after the People's Bank of China said it is dropping the peg of the yuan to the U.S. dollar for a floating system that instead uses a basket of currencies. Treasury prices fell and yields rose Thursday on speculation that China may slow its buying of U.S. bonds.

[UpInArms]

53. China revalues yuan, pleases Washington

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-21T144706Z_01_PEK350779_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ECONOMY-CHINA-DC.XML

BEIJING (Reuters) - China finally bowed to two years of political and market pressure on Thursday by revaluing the yuan by 2.1 percent and leaving the door open to further rises by abandoning the currency's decade-old peg against the dollar.

Analysts described the long-awaited move as modest and said it would have a limited economic impact. But they said the shift, ahead of a U.S. visit in September by President Hu Jintao, made good political sense and potentially marked a critical step by China's policy makers toward giving more play to market forces.

"The most important thing is the change, not how much it changed," said Li Yang, a senior economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow applauded the shift as a significant contribution to global financial stability, while a senator who has been a leading critic of Beijing's currency policies called it a welcome "first baby step."

...more...

[UpInArms]

63. US Official: Little initial (deficit) impact from yuan move

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T154549Z_01_WAT003591_RTRIDST_0_CHINA-YUAN-USA-DEFICIT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - China's move to revalue its yuan currency is unlikely to have a big impact on the U.S. trade deficit or the market for Treasuries in the near term, a senior U.S. Treasury Department official said on Thursday.

"It is unlikely to have a significant initial impact on the trade deficit," the senior official told reporters in a press briefing, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official said the yuan move was the beginning of a broader process that could lead to a full float of the Chinese currency and was likely to help address global economic imbalances over time.

...more...

[UpInArms]

96. GM likes China revaluation, urges Japan to follow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T174109Z_01_N21551758_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-CHINA-YUAN-GM.XML

DETROIT, July 21 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday welcomed China's revaluation of its yuan currency and urged other Asian countries -- most notably Japan -- to let their currencies appreciate as well.

GM, the world's largest automaker, has long accused Japan of intervening in currency markets to weaken the yen and thereby give Japanese car makers an unfair cost advantage in the U.S. market.

"General Motors welcomes China's decision to allow the yuan to float against the dollar," the company said in a statement.

"China's decision marks an important first step in the realignment of Asian currencies against the dollar, which is absolutely necessary to correct the significant imbalances that have emerged in global trade over the last few years," the statement added.

"We urge other Asian countries, especially Japan, to follow China's lead and to allow their currencies to appreciate."

...more...

[UpInArms]

106. Malaysia drops currency peg after China move

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-07-21T134416Z_01_KLR194795_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MALAYSIA-PEG-UPDATE-3.XML

KUALA LUMPUR, July 21 (Reuters) - Malaysia dropped its currency's seven-year-old peg to the U.S. dollar and moved to a managed float on Thursday, but vowed to keep the ringgit stable.

<snip>

The prime minister said Malaysia was ready to handle any market speculation on the currency. Speculators piled into Malaysian stock and money markets early this year on hopes that a spiralling import bill would force the government to revalue.

"I wouldn't know what they want to do, but we are ready for anything," Abdullah Ahmad Badawi told reporters when asked about possible volatility in the currency because of speculation.

Markets have been betting for months that Malaysia would revalue its ringgit following a China move because the two countries compete for the similar export markets. Malaysia also counts China as one of its major export destinations.

<snip>

The ringgit is expected to appreciate by at least as much as the yuan, around 2-3 percent, when trade resumes on Friday, said Alex Kwan, trading head of HSBC Malaysia's global markets desk.

...more...

[54anickel]

114. Heh-heh, on Mahathir's recommendation he made 6 months ago.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at some of the meetings that must have been taking place between the Asian bankers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aXMatlH8onj4&refer=asia

snip>

Speculators

Malaysia fixed the ringgit at 3.8 to the dollar on Sept. 2, 1998, during the Asian crisis, after a devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997 sparked a slump in the currencies of Southeast Asian nations. Speculators drove the ringgit to a record low of 4.885 per dollar on Jan. 7, 1998.

The ringgit peg remained even as most of the other capital control measures, including a 30 percent levy on investment gains, had been lifted between 1999 and 2003.

The change came six months after former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who imposed the capital controls, suggested for the first time it was time to review the peg.

``I feel the time has come for us to review because we have lost a lot as the value of our currency has fallen,'' Mahathir, who retired in 2003 after leading Malaysia for 22 years, said on Jan. 19. Malaysia can fix the peg ``at any level we want.''

Soros

Mahathir banned the trading of ringgit outside the country, blaming U.S. billionaire George Soros and other ``rogue speculators'' for pushing the currency to record lows.

more...

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch - China Revalues Yuan

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.80 Change -0.54 (-0.60%)

Instant Insight China revalues the Yuan

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2384&Itemid=39

For the first time in the decade China has loosened its fixed-exchange rate against the dollar dropping the peg value from 8.31 to 8.11 and allowing the yuan to be fixed against a basket of major currencies rather than the dollar alone.

While in economic terms the move is rather modest, the positive political ramifications for the Chinese should be tremendous as the move is likely to remove the possibility of a 27.5% tariff against Chinese goods proposed by New York senator Charles Schumer. The clearest beneficiary of this change is the yen as Japan should receive a double benefit from this action by harvesting more revenue from its sales to China – its primary trading partner - as well as see its goods become more competitive against their Chinese counterparts in the global markets. The USD/JPY collapsed over 200 points in the wake of the move as FX markets absorbed the news. It hit a low of 110.36 in early New York trading.

We have argued for several days that the USD/JPY rally was nearing an end and today’s price action dealt a significant blow to dollar bulls. The interesting question going forward is how much more adjustment will take place in the pair, but for now USD/JPY up trend has clearly been broken.

Dollar Bulls Mistake Fakeout For Breakout

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2366&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls remained long and strong as single currency traders managed to buy every single offer thrown at them by the dollar bulls with the pair cementing psychologically important 1.2000 figure as an intermediate support. As the pair consolidates sharp gains made during a volatile session, the next move will most likely see the euro test the greenback defenses around the 1.2250 mark, with sustained breakout aiming for 1.2450. Indicators continue to signal reversal with ADX falling below the 25 line and oscillators moving toward the oversold levels.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen traders once again had their backs against the 114.00 figure, but managed to hold their ground and pushed the marauding greenback bulls back in a single charge, with the dollar longs relinquishing the control of the 113.00 handle. As the pair continues to head lower, the next move will most likely see the yen longs push the pair below toward the 111.00 level with sustained momentum taking on the psychologically important 110.00 figure. Indicators favor yen longs with maturing ADX signaling potential reversal and oscillators continuing to signal extremely overbought conditions.

...more...

Greenspan Sees “Sustained” Growth…Or Does He?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2359&Itemid=39

Like little kids and candy, Greenspan’s testimony to Congress was quickly gobbled up by traders and journalists alike. As expected, large media sources decided to pick a few key buzz words from the testimony. This time, most news stories harped on the fact that Greenspan gave a baseline outlook of “sustained economic growth and contained inflation pressures” which requires the Fed to “continue to remove monetary accommodation.” This, of course, strengthened the dollar sharply soon after the start of the testimony. Unfortunately, most of the early analysis also chose to brush aside the very next sentence, which stated that with this assessment come a few “significant uncertainties that warrant careful scrutiny”. The rest of his speech is spent on explaining three major issues that put economic balance at risk. The first was rising wage pressures against a background of declining productivity growth, which comes from slowing technological advances. He goes on to express continued concern over energy prices while noting his conclusion that there is “little prospect of appreciable relief from elevated energy prices for years to come.” Lastly, he warned of the dangers posed by low long-term interest rates and risk premiums, which lead to “unrealistic expectations” of the permanence of market stability and “financial excess and economic stress”. Despite all this, the Chairman managed to end the speech on a fairly positive note by reaffirming the measured pace of accommodation removal since the economy is still on “firm footing” with “well contained” inflation. In time, it dawned upon the market that the testimony may not have been as sunny as initially believed and the dollar reacted accordingly and lost its previous gains.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

10. Dollar in broad slide as China changes currency peg

Yen surges as China revalues currency
Dollar decline against yen translates into drop vs. Europe

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B953B8FBC%2D5E86%2D4E9E%2DB3FB%2D4C621EA092D5%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The yen shot to three-week highs against the dollar Thursday, after the People's Bank of China dumped its dollar peg in favor of one tied to a basket of the world's leading currencies.

The move allowed China's yuan to gain some 8% against the dollar, with many of Asia's currencies tugged higher as a result of trade relationships. China's decade-long dollar peg put its currency most recently at 8.28 yuan per dollar.

The clearest beneficiary of the change is the yen as Japan should receive a double benefit from this action by harvesting more revenue from its sales to China -- its primary trading partner -- as well as see its goods become more competitive against their Chinese counterparts in the global markets, said Boris Schlossberg, currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets.

Malaysia also announced it was adjusting its ringgit from a peg to a limited float.

The dollar's tumble against the yen - the greenback was at 14-month highs against its Japanese counterpart Wednesday - translated into broad declines for the U.S. currency

...more...

[54anickel]

31. Holy Sh*t - he actually said this?! And it was glossed over in the media?

...low long-term interest rates and risk premiums, which lead to “unrealistic expectations” of the permanence of market stability and “financial excess and economic stress”.

Those unrealistic expectations are the cause of his stinkin' conundrum and he knows it. Of course, he can't say that since those expectations are caused by the Fed as well.

[UpInArms]

32. but the spinners only play the "happy happy joy joy" tunes

:banghead:

[UpInArms]

35. buried in the NYTs article

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/21/business/21greenspan.html?oref=login

excerpt:

But more so than in the past, Mr. Greenspan warned that bond investors as well as homebuyers may have been lulled into a false sense of complacency that interest rates and inflation will remain low for years to come.

"History cautions that long periods of relative stability often engender unrealistic expectations of its permanence," he said. And these unrealistic expectations, "may lead to financial excess and economic stress."

Mr. Greenspan refrained from using words like "irrational exuberance" or "conundrum" to describe investor behavior, but he made a direct link between complacency about long-term interest rates and the boom in housing prices.

And he suggested that possibility of a drop in housing prices.

"The U.S. economy has weathered such episodes before without experiencing significant declines in the national average of housing prices," he said. "Nevertheless, we certainly cannot rule out declines in home prices, especially in local markets."

...more...

and then lots of soothing words :puke:

[UpInArms]

93. a peek at the buck

Last trade 88.93 Change -0.41 (-0.46%)

Settle 89.34 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.27 Previous Close 89.34

High 89.45 Low 88.44

Last tick: 2005-07-21 12:59:20 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Looks like it's heading back down again - the market heads up - the dollar heads down :think:

[UpInArms]

97. another peek

Last trade 88.67 Change -0.67 (-0.75%)

Settle 89.34 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.27 Previous Close 89.34

High 89.45 Low 88.44

Last tick: 2005-07-21 13:45:45 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

104. Dollar's fortunes turn

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB0D584A1%2D8B2D%2D4567%2D96DE%2D7D0241E1D657%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - News that China had yielded to global political pressure to revalue its currency sooner than expected roiled the currency market on Thursday, likely launching the dollar on a split course in coming weeks and months.

"The yen is likely to be main beneficiary," said Jason Daw, G-10 foreign-exchange analyst with Merrill Lynch in New York.

Other analysts think the dollar's decline could be broad now that China has decided to swap a dollar peg for a narrow trading band against a basket of currencies. As the news reverberated through foreign-exchange markets, the yen surged 2% against the dollar and the euro, yanking it up from 14-month lows. See full story on revaluation. See Currencies.

The greenback is likely to resume a decline against its Asian counterparts, particularly the yen, which is one of the most liquid trading pairs in the some $4 trillion currency market. The dollar's three-year decline culminated in multiple year lows against the yen and euro late last year but the buck has been on the mend so far in 2005.

<snip>

Intervention is "not likely at this point given what's happened over past few months to both the Japanese currency and economy, but should not be ruled out," said Daw.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Today's Reports: (It's MaeveDay!)

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200529.html

Jul 21	8:30 AM		Initial Claims		07/16	-	NA	NA	336K	-	
Jul 21	10:00 AM	Leading Indicators	Jun	-	0.5%	NA	-0.5%	-	
Jul 21	12:00 PM	Philadelphia Fed	Jul	-	9.0	NA	-2.2	-	
Jul 21	2:00 PM		FOMC Minutes		Jun 30	-	-	-	-	-

[UpInArms]

5. U.S. initial jobless claims fall by 34,000 to 303,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.3541854745-838969032&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time filings for U.S. state unemployment benefits dropped by 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 303,000 last week, the lowest level in three months, the Labor Department said Thursday. It's the largest decline since December 2002. Economists were expecting claims to fall to about 325,000. The four-week average of new claims - which smoothes out one-time events that can distort the weekly figures - dropped by 3,250 to a four-month low of 318,000. The number of people receiving unemployment checks fell by 41,000 to 2.577 million in the week ending July 9.

Last week revised upward to 337,000

8:29am 07/21/05 LARGEST DECLINE IN JOBLESS CLAIMS IN 2 1/2 YEARS

8:29am 07/21/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 3-MONTH LOW

8:29am 07/21/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 41,000 TO 2.58M

8:29am 07/21/05 U.S. 4-WK AVG INITIAL CLAIMS FALL 3,250 TO 318,000

8:29am 07/21/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 34,000 TO 303,000

[Maeve]

9. Note the way spin is generated

8:29am 07/21/05 LARGEST DECLINE IN JOBLESS CLAIMS IN 2 1/2 YEARS

8:29am 07/21/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 3-MONTH LOW

Which headline will get the greater exposure? Also waiting for all the announced layoffs to filter thru the numbers...

Hi, y'all! Back from vacation but still running hard (and working my way thru the latest Harry Potter!) :hi:

[UpInArms]

12. Hiya Maeve!

Don't you just love how they make 303,000 claims in a week sound good? :crazy:

Just wait until all those layoffs start working their way into the mix.

It's going to get ugly.

Glad to have you back!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

36. U.S. June leading economic indicators rise 0.9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.4168068287-838973327&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.9% in June, the Conference Board said Thursday. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had expected a 0.5% rise. The coincident index rose 0.2%, while the lagging index rose 0.3%.

10:00am 07/21/05 U.S. JUNE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP 0.9%

10:00am 07/21/05 7 OUT OF 10 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS ROSE IN JUNE

10:00am 07/21/05 ANALYSTS EXPECTED 0.5% RISE IN JUNE LEADING INDICATORS

Will continue to check for the details.

[UpInArms]

70. Philly Fed index rises - employment index falls from 7.1 to 3.4

Philly Fed says factory activity rose in July

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-07-21T160728Z_01_N21545511_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PHILAFED-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - Output at factories in the Mid-Atlantic United States rose this month, a regional central bank said on Thursday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business activity index rose to 9.6 in July from -2.2 in June. Wall Street analysts had been predicting a rise to 9.0

A measure above zero denotes growth in the sector while a measure below zero points to contraction.

The employment index fell to 3.4 from 7.1 in June, while the six-month outlook for business conditions fell to 15.3 from 30.6. A measure of new orders rose to 5.0 from 2.5.

...more...

[UpInArms]

94. FOMC agreed rate hikes not finished at June 30 meeting

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.5836593403-838983404&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve policymakers agreed at their June 30 meeting that additional tightening would be necessary, although there was some disagreement about just how many more rate hikes would be needed to keep inflation contained, according to a summary of the minutes of their meeting released Thursday. Members showed much more concern with the inflation outlook than with any sign of a slowdown. Inflation was already higher in 2005 that FOMC had expected at the beginning of the year, and the FOMC members agreed that they "needed to be particularly alert to signs of a further increase in inflation." Further price hikes "might impart upward momentum to inflation expectations that would be costly to reverse," according to the summary.

2:00pm 07/21/05 FOMC: PACE OF FUTURE HIKES DEPENDS ON INCOMING DATA

2:00pm 07/21/05 FOMC MEMBERS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MORE TIGHTENING AHEAD

2:00pm 07/21/05 FOMC: NEED TO BE 'PARTICULARLY ALERT' ABOUT INFLATION

2:00pm 07/21/05 FOMC FELT REASSURED BY DATA THAT SLOWDOWN UNLIKELY

2:00pm 07/21/05 FOMC MINUTES SHOW INCREASED WORRY ABOUT INFLATION

2:00pm 07/21/05 FOMC AGREED ON JUNE 30 THAT MORE TIGHTENING NEEDED

[UpInArms]

6. Honeywell to cut 2,000 jobs despite increase in sales

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5517723.html

TRENTON, N.J. -- Aerospace and high-tech manufacturer Honeywell International Inc. said Wednesday that it will trim 2,000 jobs from its aerospace business and reported that brisk sales boosted second-quarter operating income.

Honeywell Chief Financial Officer Dave Anderson said 10 to 20 percent of the job cuts would be through attrition and the rest through layoffs by year's end.

The cuts -- about 5 percent of Honeywell's nearly 43,000-person worldwide aerospace workforce -- are part of an effort to consolidate the division. The company has three other divisions and a total of more than 100,000 employees worldwide.

Anderson declined to say where the cuts in the firm's Phoenix-based aerospace division would be made. All but 7,000 of those workers are in the United States, with the largest concentration -- nearly 12,000 -- in Arizona.

...more...

[WhiteTara]

102. but but but...the tv says that this is the lowest

initial jobless claims since April. Why do you hate amurikca?
:hi:

[UpInArms]

7. Ford announces (250) job cuts at Louisville truck plant

http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw118715_20050721.htm

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -- Ford Motor Co. is planning to cut 250 workers from its truck plant in eastern Jefferson County -- a surprise to some who felt safe because of the popularity of its Super Duty trucks.

The job cuts -- the first by Ford in Louisville in four years -- will come on Sept. 30, when the company will halt production of the Excursion sport utility vehicle.

"We were always told that they could move people throughout the plant" if they eliminated the Excursion line, said Rocky Comito, president of United Auto Workers Local 862.

Ford announced earlier this week a 19 percent drop in quarterly profits, mostly due to weak sales of its sport utility vehicles, including the Louisville-built Explorer.

...more...

[trogdor]

45. Well, that sucks.

Sort of. Tell you what, though. Anybody who felt their job was "safe" even though it was based on 90 cent gasoline, gets little sympathy from me, and Louisville is my home town.

[UpInArms]

8. Columbus textile industry loses almost 300 jobs

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/12182508.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

COLUMBUS, Ga. - One Columbus textile manufacturer said Wednesday it plans to cut 20 percent of its work force, while another said it would close - a combined loss of almost 300 jobs for the west Georgia city.

Atlanta-based Galey & Lord Swift Denim said it will lay off 250 employees and eliminate one of four shifts by Aug. 8 in response to falling orders for premium cloth.

Meritas Yarns' president A. Illges said production at his 80,000-square-foot yarn-spinning plant is winding down. By late August, the plant will close, he said, leaving 45 people out of work. Nearly 20 others were cut in January after one of three shifts was eliminated.

Larry Spell, Galey & Lord vice president of human resources, said retail sales of more expensive brands of apparel that use the company's cloth have been down since last Christmas.

"Our inventory is growing to an unreasonable level," he said. "So we are faced with having to reduce the amount of fabric that we produce on a weekly basis."

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Sallie Mae net income falls sharply

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC4B2804B%2D6CBB%2D4447%2D9BA3%2D83718933BCD8%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- SLM Corp., the parent of the educational lender commonly known as Sallie Mae, said Thursday that second-quarter net income dropped by 52%.

Net income fell to $296.5 million, or 66 cents a share, from the $614.9 million, or $1.29 a share, earned in the year-ago second quarter.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected the company (SLM: news, chart, profile) to report quarterly earnings of 59 cents a share.

"Core cash" net income, meanwhile, climbed to $535 million in the latest quarter. This equated to 62 cents a share, up from 50 cents a share a year ago.

The company uses both generally accepted accounting standards and core cash to report income. Investors, credit-rating agencies and others use the core cash measure to gauge Sallie Mae's performance.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Treasuries in downdraft on China move

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-21T124010Z_01_N21306640_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-BONDS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices, particularly longer-dated securities, fell hard on Thursday morning on news that China had revalued its currency, sparking concern Chinese demand for U.S. debt might start to fade.

Subsequent news on Thursday of fresh emergencies at three London subway stations, did not yet spark a flight-to-quality into the U.S. Treasuries market.

While a China revaluation at 2.1 percent was modest, the market's concern clearly reflected the critical role foreign central banks have played in keeping long-term rates so low even as the Federal Reserve has raised short-term rates rise.

"It was a token revaluation at 2.1 percent. But It's going to potentially create less demand on the long end," said one trader at a Wall Street Treasury dealer.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Treasurys suffer in step with dollar

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5B3D2202%2DC96B%2D47CF%2DAA7D%2D831F48886867%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices fell and yields jumped Thursday as a currency revaluation in China sent the U.S. dollar sharply lower.

<snip>

But a report showing a dive in jobless benefits applications, although believed tied to seasonal auto plant developments, kept the bond market under water.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is expected to repeat to a second congressional committee this week his optimism for the U.S. economy and the likelihood that the central bank raises interest rates further.

<snip>

A weaker dollar could increase the risk of inflation in the U.S. economy, eating up the value of fixed-income interest payments.

...more...

[UpInArms]

61. US Treasuries fall, yuan revaluation carries day

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T154542Z_01_N21411267_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices, particularly longer-dated securities, fell on Thursday on news that China had revalued its currency, sparking concerns that Chinese demand for U.S. government debt might start to fade.

The losses largely held even after reports of explosions on London's transport system. The incidents, which followed deadly bombings in London two weeks ago, triggered flight-to-safety Treasuries buying, but not enough to erase losses related to the China news.

U.S. Treasuries often gain after major disturbances abroad on the view that the United States is a relative safe haven.

At the U.S. Senate, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reierated his upbeat testimony on the economy, as he did in his appearance before House of Representatives lawmakers on Wednesday. His fresh comments did little to prices.

The London blasts brought enough buyers back into the market to push yields down the benchmark 10-year note to a Thursday low of 4.195 percent. But yields again moved higher as it became clear that the incidents were not as disruptive as the earlier bombings and caused no fatalites.

...more...

Should I put my :tinfoilhat: on?

[UpInArms]

15. Merck Q2 profit falls 59 percent

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8BFP0TO0.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

JUL. 21 8:09 A.M. ET WHITEHOUSE STATION, N.J. -- Drug maker Merck & Co. said Thursday that its second-quarter profit fell 59 percent on a charge for the repatriation of about $15 billion in foreign profits and the lack of sales of the recalled painkiller Vioxx.

The company said its quarterly income declined to $720.6 million, or 33 cents per share, from $1.77 billion, or 79 cents per share, a year ago. Excluding a net tax charge of $640 million, or 29 cents per share, to repatriate foreign earnings under the American Jobs Creation Act, Merck reported a profit of $1.36 billion, or 62 cents per share.

Revenue fell 9 percent to $5.47 billion from $6.02 billion last year, with 11 percent of the decrease coming from the lack of Vioxx sales. Merck pulled Vioxx from the market in September over safety concerns.

...more...

I wonder how many jobs Merck will create with their repatriated funds? :eyes:

[UpInArms]

33. Merck falls on Vioxx withdrawal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE915CE64%2DB81E%2D4E7C%2DBB6E%2D580721C097D0%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co. reported lowered second-quarter earnings early Thursday, largely due to the absence of the once hugely popular painkiller Vioxx from its balance sheet and a major charge for the repatriation of foreign profits.

Merck was down 1.7% at $31.32 early Thursday.

Merck (MRK: news, chart, profile) reported earnings of $721 million, or 33 cents a share, compared with $1.8 billion, or 79 cents a share, for the same quarter last year. Excluding a 29 cents a share charge related to the repatriation of foreign profits under the American Jobs Creation Act, Merck would have reported adjusted earnings of 62 cents a share.

<snip>

Merck abruptly yanked its multi-billion dollar drug Vioxx from the market last fall after a study linked long-term use to an increased risk of heart attack or stroke in certain patients.

...more...

[54anickel]

17. Morning Ozy and all. See the futures are looking pretty bright yet, what

was that 7:00 spike in the charts about though? I suppose we'll hear more about the great resolve of the markets in the face of the latest terra business going on in London again if there's another up day. DOW is pointing to 10,700 now.

[UpInArms]

19. I guess Brit Hume was buying up stocks

:puke:

[UpInArms]

20. pre-opening blather from ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally, which led to a breakout above resistance marked by March’s high crossing at 1588. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off last week’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 1645 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1580.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 2.50 pts. at 1611 as of 5:30 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday’s rally, which led to a breakout above resistance marked by March’s high crossing at 1235.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that a double top with March’s high crossing at 1235.10 might be forming. If September extends the rebound off last week’s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2000- 2002 decline crossing at 1265.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1228.88 would signal that a double top with March’s high has been posted. The September S&P 500 Index was up 0.10 pts. at 1236.60 as of 5:33 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Briefing.com has not posted any blather this morning - Reuters's server is overloaded and Marketwatch has avoided the issue also.

hmmmm....

[UpInArms]

21. Here's Reuters: Stocks seen up after roller-coaster ride

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-21T131933Z_01_N21524668_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-STOCKS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures on Thursday pointed to a higher market open after China loosened its yuan currency exchange rate against the dollar and London officials said initially there were no injuries from explosions in three underground railway stations.

Equity index futures were roiled throughout the morning by the barrage of news, which also included better-than-expected earnings reports from U.S. companies, including soft-drink maker Coca-Cola Co. (KO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

S&P futures fell immediately after news that emergency services personnel were rushing to three London underground stations, two weeks after bomb attacks killed more than 50 people. There were also a report of an explosion on a bus in the Hackney area of east London.

Transport authorities said no one was reported injured in the incidents.

But the market recovered to focus on the yuan's revaluation. In a long-awaited move that it said would improve the running of the Chinese economy and give more play to market forces, China's central bank said the yuan's value from now on would be linked to a basket of currencies of China's main trading partners.

S&P 500 futures rose 2.1 points, above fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates their pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 24 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 4.5 points.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Lilly reports major loss due to Zyprexa settlement

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC32FF8A4%2DADB8%2D4B1F%2DB751%2DA209ED916B57%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Drugmaker Eli Lilly reported a major second-quarter loss early Thursday, due largely to $1.1 billion pre-tax charge for the settlement of product liability litigation over its blockbuster drug Zyprexa.

For the quarter ended June 30, Lilly (LLY: news, chart, profile) lost $252 million, or 23 cents a share. Those figures included a 90 cents a share after-tax product liability charge and an 8 cents a share after-tax charge for asset impairment and the expensing of stock options. This compared with a profit of $656.9 million, or 60 cents a share, for the same period last year.

...more...

So what was/is Zyprexa?

http://www.adrugrecall.com/news/zyprexa-warning.html

Zyprexa warning issued

April 11, 2005

The FDA has ordered a new warning to be put on Zyprexa, as well as other antipsychotic drugs like Symbyax, Seroquel, Risperdal, Clozaril, Geodon and Abilify.

The FDA is alerting physicians to a higher death rate when the medicines are prescribed for atypical use of treating dementia in elderly patients. The agency said it has asked the Zyprexa manufacturer, as well as the other affected drugmakers, to add boxed warnings to the labels describing the increased risks and noting the drugs are not approved to treat symptoms of dementia in the elderly.

According to the FDA, the death rate for elderly patients on the medication were 1.6 to 1.7 times greater than those on a placebo, and most of the deaths were either heart related or from infections. Since the agency believes, after reviewing 17 studies of four drugs in the class, that the health risks are a class effect, it has ordered Zyprexa and other antipsychotic drug manufacturers to add the new warning labels.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. 9:36 EST markets are open (guess Brit didn't buy much)

Dow 10,654.44 -34.71 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,186.83 -1.74 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,232.66 -2.54 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223 +0.46 (+1.10%)

NYSE Volume 61,687,000
Nasdaq Volume 120,647,000

[UpInArms]

27. some blather

U.S. stocks mixed at the opening, London in focus

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.4009204282-838972345&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks were mixed at the opening Thursday, as investors waited for more details following sketchy news reports about incidents in the London underground. Investors also were following news that China scrapped the peg of the yuan to the dollar in favor of one tied to a basket of the world's leading currencies. They also were poring over new earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) was down 37 points at 10,651, the Nasdaq composite ($COMPX) down 1.86 points at 2,186, and the S&P 500 ($SPX) down 3 points at 1,232.

Mixed????? :wtf:

All down.

[ozymandius]

28. Brit Hume probably working hard to establish Ghoul Futures Market.

GFM for short.

[UpInArms]

25. Despite rise in earnings, Pfizer to announce more job cuts

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3621869&nav=0RcecOYs

(Kalamazoo, July 21, 2005, 7:33 a.m.) Workers in Kalamazoo know the job cuts are coming. Thursday, they will find out which Pfizer employees will lose out.

The world's biggest drug company is restructuring, and that's already meant hundreds of job cuts in West Michigan. Thursday morning, employees will learn about more cuts, this time in the Research and Development division.

Pfizer officials have warned layoffs are coming, saying they're under pressure from investors to improve profits and streamline operations. They're holding informational meetings Thursday for employees to explain more about the company's re-organization.

<snip>

This comes on the heels of Wednesday's announcement that Pfizer's second quarter earnings rose 21 percent. Executives say it's all part of a plan to cut $4 billion in yearly costs by 2008. They anticipate $400 million in savings this year alone, and the coming cuts are part of that.

...more at link...

[ozymandius]

26. Apparently, they just heard about the bombings.

9:41
Dow 10,672.20 -16.95 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,188.90 +0.33 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,233.56 -1.64 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 42.22 +0.45 (+1.08%)
NYSE Volume 100,385,000
Nasdaq Volume 167,761,000

[UpInArms]

29. and then they sold

9:43

Dow 10,662.40 -26.75 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,186.69 -1.88 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,232.38 -2.82 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.216 +0.39 (+0.93%)

NYSE Volume 125,966,000
Nasdaq Volume 193,465,000

[UpInArms]

37. Schering-Plough reports widened loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B31CE3C29%2D8DBF%2D4319%2DB993%2D4D9948B7EE26%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Schering-Plough reported a widened quarterly loss early Thursday, due primarily to a substantial charge taken for further contributions to its litigation fund.

For the quarter ended June 30, Schering-Plough (SGP: news, chart, profile) reported a second-quarter loss of $70 million, or 5 cents a share, which included $259 million, or 18 cents a share, for an increase in the reserves of its legal fund. The drugmaker had a loss of $65 million, or 4 cents a share, for the same quarter in 2004.

Revenue for the quarter jumped 18% to $2.53 billion, from $2.14 billion last year. Primary growth drivers were the drugs Remicade, Nasonex, and the company's cholesterol medication franchise with Merck.

<snip>

Schering-Plough has been under investigation by several state and federal governmental entities, including the Justice Department and the U.S. Attorney's Office of Massachusetts, over past business practices. The company is also operating under a consent decree by the Food and Drug Administration due to past problems at some of its manufacturing facilities.

...more...

Fast-tracking drugs onto the market has sure helped big pharma :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

38. 10:08 EST numbers

Dow 10,671.56 -17.59 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,187.04 -1.53 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,232.33 -2.87 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223 +0.46 (+1.10%)

NYSE Volume 316,463,000
Nasdaq Volume 378,602,000

[UpInArms]

40. 10:16 EST heading downward

Dow 10,653.23 -35.92 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,180.95 -7.62 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,231.20 -4.00 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227 +0.50 (+1.20%)

NYSE Volume 377,279,000
Nasdaq Volume 437,666,000

[54anickel]

42. Maybe they're reading the rest of Greenspin's story. I've barely

skimmed through it so far. This part doesn't sound good though

The economic forces driving the global saving-investment balance have been unfolding over the course of the past decade, so the steepness of the recent decline in long-term dollar yields and the associated distant forward rates suggests that something more may have been at work over the past year.6 Inflation premiums in forward rates ten years ahead have apparently continued to decline, but real yields have also fallen markedly over the past year. It is possible that the factors that have tended to depress real yields over the past decade have accelerated recently, though that notion seems implausible.

According to estimates prepared by the Federal Reserve Board staff, a significant portion of the sharp decline in the ten-year forward one-year rate over the past year appears to have resulted from a fall in term premiums. Such estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. Nevertheless, they suggest that risk takers have been encouraged by a perceived increase in economic stability to reach out to more distant time horizons. These actions have been accompanied by significant declines in measures of expected volatility in equity and credit markets inferred from prices of stock and bond options and narrow credit risk premiums. History cautions that long periods of relative stability often engender unrealistic expectations of its permanence and, at times, may lead to financial excess and economic stress.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2005/july/testimony.htm

[UpInArms]

43. 9:23 EST continuing to tumble downward

Dow 10,635.65 -53.50 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,176.15 -12.42 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,228.19 -7.01 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.234 +0.57 (+1.36%)


NYSE Volume 433,508,000
Nasdaq Volume 498,030,000

but someone/something is pushing the dollar up

Last trade 89.02 Change -0.32 (-0.36%)

Settle 89.34 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.27 Previous Close 89.34

High 89.45 Low 88.44

Last tick: 2005-07-21 09:50:53 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

48. 10:42 EST and becoming redder

Dow 10,609.54 -79.61 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,172.71 -15.86 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,224.78 -10.42 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233 +0.56 (+1.34%)

NYSE Volume 552,855,000
Nasdaq Volume 614,371,000

[UpInArms]

49. blather

U.S. stocks extend losses
Market following yuan news, London incidents

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B30761A33%2DAAF5%2D4D53%2D891F%2D887DAE88E251%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks extended their losses Thursday morning amid a heavy volume of news events, including reports of new incidents in the London underground, the Chinese government's scuttling of the yuan-dollar peg, and new earnings reports.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is again speaking about the economy to law makers, and Treasury Secretary John Snow praised the end of the yuan-dollar peg.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was down 49 points at 10,639.

The Nasdaq composite ($COMPX: news, chart, profile) was down 10.5 points at 2,178 and the S&P 500 ($SPX: news, chart, profile) down 7 points at 1,228.

"It's hard to say what the most important catalyst is for the market today because it is a very heavy news volume day," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.

...more...

[54anickel]

56. So, will "significant uncertainties" go down in the pages along with

"irrational exuberance".

[UpInArms]

58. Spending could slump with end of (housing) boom, Greenspan says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.4760095139-838978424&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The end of the housing boom could have a large impact on consumer spending in some local areas, Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan said Thursday. A "surprisingly large portion" of consumer spending has been financed by extraction of home equity in recent years in some areas, he said. There likely won't be a large national impact from the "unwinding of frothy" housing markets, he said, because he expects capital investments by businesses to expand at the same time. Greenspan said he saw no evidence that the housing boom was about to end.

I thought we were just "frothing". :eyes:

[54anickel]

62. He's been seeing capital investments by business about to expand

for 5 years now. Remember the "consumers passing the baton over to business" Bushit? :eyes:

[UpInArms]

41. Ace comes clean on finite reinsurance accounting

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.4246853588-838973822&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ace Ltd. (ACE) said Thursday that it accounted for eight finite risk reinsurance agreements incorrectly and will restate five years of earnings to fix the errors, becoming the latest insurer to admit infractions in how it recorded the controvercial products. Seven of the agreements failed to transfer enough risk to pass as reinsurance and should have been recorded as loans instead, the Bermuda-based company said. Ace, which is one of many insurers that have been subpoenaed by regulators probing abuse of finite reinsurance, said an independent investigation didn't find any improper conduct by senior management or the board of directors. The planned restatement will increase Ace's shareholder equity, or net worth, by $1 million at the end of the first quarter of 2005, the insurer estimated.

[UpInArms]

78. details

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS 1Q 2005 NET UNDERSTATED BY $3M

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS 2004 NET INCOME UNDERSTATED BY $20M

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS 2003 NET INCOME UNDERSTATED BY $60M

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS 2002 NET INCOME UNDERSTATED BY $33M

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS 2001 NET LOSS UNDERSTATED BY $35M

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS 2000 NET INCOME OVERSTATED BY $26M

12:27pm 07/21/05 ACE ESTIMATES IMPACT OF RESTATEMENT IN SEC FILING

[UpInArms]

91. did ACE payoff rating agencies?

1:08pm 07/21/05 ACE HASN'T HAD NEGATIVE RESPONSES FROM RATING AGENCIES

1:08pm 07/21/05 ACE HAS DISCUSSED RESTATEMENT WITH RATING AGENCIES

1:08pm 07/21/05 ACE SAYS ITS INVESTIGATION TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW WEEKS

1:08pm 07/21/05 ACE CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO REGULATORS' INQUIRIES

[UpInArms]

46. SBC profit falls on merger, other costs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFAD8B32E%2DFAA3%2D4AFD%2DBCAD%2DB604B51EBF51%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- SBC Communications Inc. said Thursday that second-quarter earnings fell 14% owing to one-time costs from a wireless acquisition and the termination of a major wholesale contract.

San Antonio, Texas-based SBC earned $1.0 billion, or 30 cents a share, down from $1.4 billion, or 34 cents a share, a year ago.

Revenue rose 1.3% to $10.33 billion from $10.2 billion a year ago, the fifth straight quarterly increase after several years of flat or falling growth.

Excluding onetime costs, the company said it would have earned $1.4 billion, or 43 cents a share. On that basis, SBC exceeded the 37-cent consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call.

...more...

If you skew reality, everything is rosy! :crazy:

[UpInArms]

51. Wabash Nat'l tumbles on results, lower unit view (orders cancelled)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.4548871528-838976385&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Wabash National Corp. (WNC) dropped 16.4% to $20.74 in late morning action on Thursday after the Lafayette, Ind., maker of truck trailers lowered its unit shipment expectations for the full year due to the cancellation of a 2,000 unit order that was to be produced in June and said second-quarter results reflect production delays due to employee turnover and an increased focus on quality. After Wednesday's closing bell, Wabash reported second-quarter earnings of $49 million, or $1.33 a share, up from a year-ago profit of $18 million, or 56 cents a share. The latest results, however, include a gain of $29 million, or 77 cents a share, from the reversal of a valuation allowance for deferred tax assets. Sales rose in the latest three months to $323 million from $255 million in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 81 cents a share on revenue of $323.2 million. The company now expects trailer shipments of 58,000 for the year, down from its prior target of 60,000.

[54anickel]

54. Greenspan's Fraud

http://www.howestreet.com/story.php?ArticleId=1368

Alan Greenspan has been worshiped and adored by America because he is perceived to have saved America from various economic crises over the last decade.

Best-selling author and professor of economics at Southern Methodist University, Ravi Batra, takes a different view of Greenspan. He sees Greenspan as a two-faced politician who changes his views depending on which way the wind is blowing.

More importantly, Dr. Batra believes that “Greenomics” has extracted trillions of dollars from the American middle class, sharply enriched the rich, and protected big business. In his book and in his interview with me, Ravi explains why he believes Greenspan’s inconsistencies on Social Security, income tax cuts, and the minimum wage are working to destroy the middle class and are leading America toward perilous times.

snip>

Batra: This is a very serious problem. I think there is a real estate bubble now. In order to support the economy in the aftermath of a stock market crash, Greenspan cut interest rates and sharply expanded credit and debt. But why do we need new debt? The reason for that is explained in chapter 6. Wages are the main source of demand. Productivity is the main source of supply. So when wage growth lags productivity growth, you have inadequate demand. And so to shore up demand, you have to create debt. You can raise wages or create debt but raising wages is something the establishment hates and so they create more and more debt. This process leads to sharply rising profits initially, and such a profit rise creates a stock market bubble, which eventually crashes because one day debt growth slows down. After the recent stock market crash, Greenspan went back to his old machinations to create even more debt. He did that by slashing interest rates drastically. The end result was the economy did stabilize but a real estate bubble developed in the process, and I think this real estate bubble will also burst in the next two or three years or maybe even sooner. It is bound to burst because since wages continue to lag productivity, you need exponential growth in debt for demand-supply balance, and that is simply impossible. So I think the next bubble to pop will be the real estate bubble.

snip>

Batra: That is right. In fact, in my book there is a chapter on the economics of the minimum wage that I think should be eye-opening to many people. What I have done is explained things from historical data and some very simple numeric examples. So the economic argument is very simple, as explained in this book. Historically, we find that unemployment was the lowest in the post-World War II period, when the minimum wage was the highest in terms of its purchasing power. So, for example, in 1968, the purchasing power of the minimum wage was the equivalent of $8 an hour today. With that kind of minimum wage, the unemployment rate was 3.5%, whereas today, the minimum wage is $5 and the unemployment rate is about 5.2%. So a high minimum wage actually raises employment and cuts unemployment, which is totally opposite to what Greenspan is saying.

more...

[UpInArms]

57. I want his book

http://www.ravibatra.com/press.htm

okay - am I too stupid - but how do you order that book?????

more from the original link:

Batra: Greenomics is Greenspan’s economic views and theories, even though they keep changing again and again. Everything he has said now and in the past is a part of Greenomics. But Greenomics is very close to another word I use and that is “Greedomics.” It portrays Greenomics very well because it says greed supports a rising living standard for society. He is happy with the CEOs’ greed. As long as they make a lot of money that is fine. But whenever wages tend to rise he says, “Oh that is no good; that should not be allowed because that would be inflationary.” Also Greenomics suggests that taxes should be raised on the poor and reduced on the wealthy, kind of like a robber baron taxation policy.

[UpInArms]

59. Greenspan: GSE portfolios don't increase liquidity

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050721:MTFH44966_2005-07-21_15-02-46_WBT003495:1

WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday said the mortgage portfolios held by Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) do not increase market liquidity, but serve only to boost the companies' profits.

"The motive for accumulating portfolios is solely, essentially in all respects, profit making," Greenspan told a Senate panel.

"I have no objection to that. Indeed they are profit-making organizations. They are chartered as such and their shareholders could very well, presumably, sue if they did not pursue those goals. But that is not adding liquidity to the housing market nor, in our judgment, is it assisting the market generally," Greenspan said.

Congress is weighing measures to stiffen oversight of the government-sponsored enterprises, and the size of the portfolio holdings is among the most contentious issues on the table.

...more...

continuing to blow on the bubble

[UpInArms]

64. Greenspan: Some parts of Bush's TRIA plan sensible (others stupid?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T154930Z_01_WBT003498_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-GREENSPAN-INSURANCE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday said some government backing of losses from terrorist attacks is required to help the insurance industry provide coverage to property holders.

But he said the U.S. government should be careful about how it structures a federal program as it considers whether to extend the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, or TRIA, set to expire at the end of the year.

"The reason is that to the extent that you socialize risks, you cause a misallocation of capital in a market economy and you reduce the standards of living," Greenspan said.

Greenspan said some of the aspects of the Bush administration's proposal to change TRIA by increasing private market participation and lessening taxpayers' potential liability were "very sensible."

...more...

Ahhh - privatizing profits and socializing risks = sensible!

:rofl:

[54anickel]

69. TRIA was set to terminate the end of this year.

http://news.findlaw.com/hdocs/docs/insurance/tria112602.pdf

SEC. 108. TERMINATION OF PROGRAM.
(a) TERMINATION OF PROGRAM.—The Program shall terminate
on December 31, 2005.
(b) CONTINUING AUTHORITY TO PAY OR ADJUST COMPENSATION.—
Following the termination of the Program, the Secretary
may take such actions as may be necessary to ensure payment,
recoupment, reimbursement, or adjustment of compensation for
insured losses arising out of any act of terrorism occurring during
the period in which the Program was in effect under this title,
in accordance with the provisions of section 103 and regulations
promulgated thereunder.

Did they ever renew it? Doesn't look like it.....

http://www.thehartford.com/about/tria/

http://www.rims.org/Content/NavigationMenu/PublicAffairs/Government_Affairs/TRIA/TRIA_Info.htm

[54anickel]

72. Wonder what Greenspin thinks of Shrubs MCA plan? A go'vt corporation?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/developingnations/millennium.html

Check out the board of directors:

http://www.mca.gov/about_us/board/index.shtml

Chair
Condoleezza Rice
Secretary of State

Vice-Chair
John W. Snow
Secretary of Treasury

Rob Portman
United States Trade Representative

Andrew S. Natsios
USAID Administrator

Paul V. Applegarth
MCC CEO

Kenneth Hackett

Christine Todd Whitman

[UpInArms]

60. US House panel cancels China's Unocal bid hearing

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T153832Z_01_N21334534_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-UNOCAL-HOUSE.XML

WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee said on Thursday it had canceled a Friday hearing on an $18.5 billion offer by China's CNOOC Ltd. (0883.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) to buy U.S. oil and gas producer Unocal Corp. (UCL.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

In a brief statement, the committee said the hearing had been canceled because of a continuing meeting of House and Senate lawmakers to try to agree on a single version of energy legislation.

The discussions had already moved the CNOOC hearing from Tuesday.

"A new date for the hearing has not been scheduled," the committee said.

Unocal on Wednesday endorsed a sweetened $17 billion takeover offer from Chevron Corp. (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

...more...

[UpInArms]

68. Hershey profit up; to close plant, cut jobs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T154807Z_01_N21514153_RTRIDST_0_FOOD-HERSHEY-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, July 21 (Reuters) - Hershey Co. (HSY.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest U.S. chocolate maker, posted a slightly better-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday on strong sales of new products and a price increase.

The company, which has been one of the best performers in the packaged food industry in recent quarters, also said it plans to cut jobs and close a plant to help free up more funds to invest in products, marketing and other items.

<snip>

The job cuts will come through early retirements and buyouts, the maker of Hershey Kisses and Reese's peanut butter cups said. The company does not know how many of its roughly 13,500 employees will accept the voluntary packages, a spokeswoman said,

...more...

No more Hersheys candy in this household.

[ozymandius]

74. We stopped eating their parafin wax candy a long time ago.

We only do fair trade chocolate anymore. I'll be damned if Hershey's or any other megacompany will get our money for being a bad citizen.

[UpInArms]

75. I don't do chocolate (get my caffein in a cup)

but my kid loves their Cookies 'n Cream bars -

oh well, he's been pretty good at understanding all the other items that have been slashed from the buy list.

[54anickel]

81. Heh-heh, remember their old jingle -

Hershey is the great American chocolate bar.

[UpInArms]

71. 12:10 EST numbers - red paint drying

Dow 10,634.06 -55.09 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,176.20 -12.37 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,227.36 -7.84 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.270 +0.93 (+2.23%)

NYSE Volume 970,767,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,013,528,000

[ozymandius]

73. 12:15

Dow 10,631.20 -57.95 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,176.45 -12.12 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,227.11 -8.09 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.268 +0.91 (+2.18%)
NYSE Volume 986,024,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,028,642,000

Dang! Bonds are getting thrashed.

[UpInArms]

79. 12:33 recovery in progress

Dow 10,657.39 -31.76 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,183.46 -5.11 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,230.03 -5.17 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.251 +0.74 (+1.77%)

NYSE Volume 1,046,790,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,088,485,000

[UpInArms]

77. Long-term mortgage rates continue up -30-year fixed 5.73%; 1-year ARM 4.42

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5B4FD9D4%2D101D%2D4C23%2D8212%2DC95C4A30FFEC%7D&siteid=mktw

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - Long-term mortgage rates shifted higher again in the week ending Thursday but remain below the year-ago level of 6%.

Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.73%, up from 5.66% a week earlier.

The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.32%, up from 5.25%. A year ago, the average rate on the 15-year was 5.39%.

The one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 4.42% vs. 4.39% a week earlier. A year ago, the one-year ARM averaged 4.12%. The last time the one-year ARM was higher was the week ending Aug. 2, 2002, when it averaged 4.45 percent.

The five-year hybrid ARM also rose to 5.26% from 5.15%.

The 30- and 15-year loans required the payment of an average 0.4 point to achieve the interest rate; the five-year hybrid needed 0.5 point and the one-year ARM needed 0.6 point. A point is 1% of the loan amount, charged as prepaid interest.

...more...

[ozymandius]

82. New London Attacks Prompt Stock Selloff

NEW YORK - Stocks dropped Thursday as uneasiness over the latest subway attacks in London overshadowed strong earnings reports and China's decision to revalue its currency.

While the London attacks appeared to be minor — only one injury was reported — investors took the opportunity to secure their recent gains one day after a record-setting session.

China's news that it would float its currency against a basket of other currencies was seen as a positive — possibly giving U.S. exporters more opportunities in China. The move was also seen as a boon to blue-chip companies, many of which have benefited from China's economic boom. Bonds fell sharply, however, on fears that higher import prices could spur inflation.

"I think this is definitely, score one for investors, with probably a zero score for consumers," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "It's very unlikely that this will result in higher consumer prices here, but exporters should see some benefit, especially large-cap and growth companies."

more...

[54anickel]

84. What is with this Goldilocks BS?

"It's very unlikely that this will result in higher consumer prices here, but exporters should see some benefit, especially large-cap and growth companies." :eyes:

[ozymandius]

86. I know. It sounds like Brit Hume wrote the damned thing.

Like the beginning of the paragraph: "I think this is definitely, score one for investors, with probably a zero score for consumers," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "It's very unlikely that this will result in higher consumer prices here, but exporters should see some benefit, especially large-cap and growth companies."

What's the diff between the two?

[54anickel]

87. How much had the buck dropped (prior to this year's little rally), and

What did it do for exporters and the trade imbalance? Nothing, nada, zilch. Yet we're suppose to believe that this tiny gesture on the part of China (and I doubt it's a good will gesture) is somehow a boon to the export industry. Yeah, right. :eyes:

It just buys Snowjob a little time before folks start screaming at him to define that strong dollar policy again. The yuan revaluation will be the explaination for the drop in the buck until it drops too damned far and folks start screaming.

[ozymandius]

89. Question: what's left to export?

Not much comes to mind. Food, maybe? There's an arms embargo imposed on China. So that nixes our main export, violence, as a commodity. China already makes in any color and any size whatever the world could either want or need. So what's left, I wonder.

[UpInArms]

90. our number one export - jobs .............. eom

[RawMaterials]

111. I suspect that this gesture is just the to

make the unocal purchase go through.

[plasticsundance]

85. Will this become a trend with the Treasuries ...

Capital Flows Barely Cover for Deficit

The dollar is losing ground across the board despite a 26% increase in net foreign capital flows into the US at $60 billion in May from a revised a $47.8 billion in April. The report was positive for the US in 2 ways; 1) capital flows stood above the $55.3 billion deficit after having coming below it in the prior 2 months; 2) Flows increased over the prior month. But more concerns linger.

Official purchases of US Treasuries (central banks) fell 51% to $6.8 billion in May, falling well below the Jan 03 - Apr 05 monthly average of $11.9 billion. Notably, the "official" share of total foreign purchases of US Treasuries fell to 25% from the monthly average of 44% between Jan 03 and Apr 05. Eroding interest in Treasuries from official accounts could suggest a waning urgency for foreign central banks to intervene in FX markets given the recent strength of the dollar.

Foreign residents turned net sellers of US stocks at 720 million, the first net selling since September 2004. Foreign residents had remained net purchasers of US equities after the reelection of a Republican government in November. The reelection proved great news for equities as it meant the Bush Administration would not phase out the tax cuts of the past 2 years. But if the flows begin to show signs of waning, that could remove a vital force from the foreign inflows, which could erode the overall financability of the US trade deficit.

US residents' purchases of foreign stocks rose 69% to $10.6 billion in May (see chart below), due to a 181% increase in net purchases of foreign stocks and a 27% increase in purchases of foreign bonds at $5.8 billion. Although total US purchases of foreign stocks and bonds are well below the 5-year high of $17 billion reached last October, the trend could well revert to renewed increase as US investors begin to see a top in the dollar. Such thinking could become prevalent among managers of international and global mutual funds which specialize in foreign stocks and profit from a weakening dollar.

[ozymandius]

88. almost above the waterline

Dow 10,675.29 -13.86 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,187.96 -0.61 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,232.54 -2.66 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.253% +0.08
NYSE Volume 1,229,745,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,259,637,000

[UpInArms]

92. 1:26 - it went positive and now is dropping back

Dow 10,671.64 -17.51 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,187.08 -1.49 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,232.12 -3.08 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257 +0.80 (+1.92%)

NYSE Volume 1,270,605,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,297,017,000

Dow turns positive for first time Thursday

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38554.5487876389-838981973&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow industrials ($INDU) were last up 1 points at 10,690, turning positive for the first time Thursday. The Dow had been down as much as 80.72 points earlier in the session, weighed by jitters over further explosions in London and rising bond yields on the back of China's revaluation of its currency. Of the Dow's 30 components, 16 gained ground. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was last up 2 points at 2,191, erasing losses of as much as 16.59 points.

[UpInArms]

95. 2:10 EST numbers

seems like it didn't appreciate the FOMC minutes :shrug:

Dow 10,650.38 -38.77 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,185.27 -3.30 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,229.73 -5.47 (-0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.272 +0.95 (+2.27%)

NYSE Volume 1,417,279,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,431,920,000

[UpInArms]

101. 2:30 EST numbers (sinking back down)

Dow 10,636.29 -52.86 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,181.98 -6.59 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,228.06 -7.14 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282 +1.05 (+2.51%)

NYSE Volume 1,502,471,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,505,422,000

[UpInArms]

99. Fitch cuts Kodak's rating deeper into junk

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-21T174743Z_01_N21557113_RTRIDST_0_LEISURE-KODAK-FITCH-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its ratings on Eastman Kodak (EK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) deeper into junk status, citing factors including a declining film business, a new restructuring and pricing pressures.

Kodak on Wednesday said it would cut up to 10,000 more jobs and posted its third quarterly net loss in a row as it struggles with a collapsing traditional camera film market.

Fitch cut Kodak's senior unsecured rating by one notch to "BB," the second-highest junk rating, from "BB-plus." The outlook is negative, meaning another rating downgrade is likely over the next one to two years.

...short blurb...

[54anickel]

112. HA! Deeper into junk. I guess I never realized there were levels

of junk. So what's the rating that's equivalent to doggie doo-doo?

[UpInArms]

100. McDonald's sees commodities costs rising

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBA3130C9%2DBB12%2D4470%2D83A5%2D69136AB51A7C%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - McDonald's Corp. said Thursday that it expects margins will continue to be pressured by rising commodities cost - most notably on beef - but sees a slowing in the rate of increases for the rest of the year.

The maker of the Quarter Pounder and the Big Mac told analysts on the second-quarter conference call that commodities costs are the highest they've been in years. In the U.S., for example, beef costs rose 10% in the second quarter, higher than the 6% rise in the first quarter.

Earlier, McDonald's delivered an adjusted profit of $530.4 million, or 42 cents a share. After taking out a one-time tax charge, earnings would have been 51 cents a share, matching last week's company forecast. See full story.

...more...

[UpInArms]

103. Able Laboratories Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy as Recalls, Layoffs, and

Able Laboratories Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy as Recalls, Layoffs, and Investigations Take Their Toll

http://www.newsinferno.com/storypages/7-20-2005~001.html

It seems like only yesterday when Able Laboratories sat atop the generic drug industry with 46 versions of the most successful name-brand drugs and an annual production of one billion doses.

Today, the company is in shambles. All of its products have been recalled, all production has been halted, and it has had to lay off over 75% of its workforce. It faces investigations by the FDA and the U.S. Attorney’s Office and its stock is virtually worthless. It has even lost its $20 million credit line with the Citizens Bank of Massachusetts.

Listing assets of $59.5 million in assets and $9.5 million in liabilities, Able has sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in an effort to salvage what is left of its business by means of a court-supervised restructuring and reorganization, an FDA consent decree, and possible recapitalization.

The company’s rapid disintegration began exactly two months ago when several millions of doses of numerous generic prescriptions drugs were unexpectedly pulled from the market in a massive drug recall. At that time neither the FDA nor the manufacturer came forward with any specific information to explain the matter.

On May 19, Able Laboratories stopped all shipments of its products. Four days later (May 23), Able took the highly unusual step of recalling its entire product line and suspending all manufacturing; something experts cannot recall having ever happened previously.

...more...

[UpInArms]

105. 2:55 EST getting redder

Dow 10,628.01 -61.14 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,179.50 -9.07 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,226.25 -8.95 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282 +1.05 (+2.51%)

NYSE Volume 1,610,915,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,606,089,000

[DoBotherMe]

107. KICK n/t

[UpInArms]

108. closing numbers and some old blather

Dow 10,627.77 -61.38 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,178.60 -9.97 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 1,227.04 -8.16 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282 +1.05 (+2.51%)

NYSE Volume 2,092,188,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,029,285,000

(guess the blather writers got their memo)

3:00PM: More of the same for the averages as blue chips continue to outpace their Nasdaq counterparts... On the Dow, Merck (MRK 31.05 -0.80) has turned in the worst performance, after merely matching analysts' Q2 forecasts, amid a 59% decline in profits on lower than expected revenues, and issuing in-line guidance... Wal-Mart (WMT 49.28 -0.72), which accounts for roughly 10% of the U.S. trade deficit with China, has also weighed on the index...

Of the 7 components catching a bid, Coca-Cola (KO 43.65 +0.32) remains the standout, after beating expectations by $0.04, while dollar weakness has actually helped Alcoa (AA 28.71 +0.17) find buyers... NYSE Adv/Dec 1147/2064, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1217/1729

2:30PM: Market retraces early lows as an ongoing rise in benchmark yields continues to weigh on the proceedings...While the FOMC minutes said members differed on the degree of needed future tightening, the fact that more rate hikes appear imminent (nothing relatively new), bond traders have found little incentive to stay long Treasurys, as the 10-year note is now off 30 ticks to yield 4.27% - the highest rate since mid April... NYSE Adv/Dec 1147/2064, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1217/1729

2:00PM: Little changed since the last update as market internals still suggest a negative tone to trading... Decliners on the NYSE hold a 19 to 12 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 4 to 3 margin... A nearly 2-to-1 ratio of down to up volumes, however, suggests an even more bearish bias at both the Big Board and the Composite...

[loudsue]

109. Some really good information on here to day....

and a whole lotta BS coming from the powers that be!

:hi: Thanks Marketeers!

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

110. 'Twas an interesting day

to watch the machinations

:hi:

[54anickel]

113. I missed the later half - power outage and it never came back up before

I had to leave for the day to make a buck or two. Now I've gotta try and catch up!