IPC Co-chair Comments on Leaked U.S. NIE on Iran

[paineinthearse]

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=51264

Iran Policy Committee (IPC) Co-chair Comments on Leaked U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran

8/2/2005 7:37:00 PM


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To: National Desk

Contact: Prof. Raymond Tanter of Iran Policy Committee, 202-742-6517 or [e-mail]; Web: http://www.iranpolicy.org

WASHINGTON, Aug. 2 /U.S. Newswire/ -- According to a 2 August 2005 Washington Post article, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) projects that Iran is a decade away from manufacturing a key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with first-hand knowledge of the new analysis.

The intelligence estimate is contradictory-reflecting disagreement within the community. On one hand, the estimate is reassuring: Iran is alleged to be about ten years away from getting the bomb. On the other hand, the estimate is worrisome: "It is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its own devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons," according to the Washington Post article.

The intelligence estimate has been overtaken by events: "The estimate fails to take into account the June 2005 Iranian elections," according to Professor Raymond Tanter, co chair of the Iran Policy Committee, a Washington-based think tank. "Elections in Iran produced a consolidation of power under the Supreme Leader Khamenei and should accelerate the nuclear weapons pace by Tehran," according to Tanter.

The intelligence estimate is puzzling. Tanter said that, "It is puzzling how an intelligence estimate can conclude it will be another decade before Iran is capable of building a bomb when there is evidence of clandestine enrichment cascades at Iranian secret military sites and an ability of the regime to divert natural uranium gas to centrifuges, both of which should shorten not lengthen the time to produce bomb-making fuel."

"If Iran gets its hands on low-enriched uranium instead of natural uranium as feed material, or can smuggle in high-enriched uranium or plutonium, moreover, the regime could be months, not years away from a bomb," according to Tanter.

The intelligence estimate apparently overlooks evidence provided by Iranian dissident groups. Tanter said that, "The intelligence community has not had a good track record regarding Iran. Most of the major nuclear sites that are now known to the outside world and are inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency, including the uranium enrichment site in Natanz and the heavy water facility in Arak, were revealed by Iran's main opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).

The intelligence estimate fails to take into account an inability of UN inspectors to monitor suspect Iranian sites. Tanter stated that, "The Iranian regime denies the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), full access to the Parchin military site and any access to Lavisan II military site. Thus, there is no way for the IAEA to know for sure what is taking place at those sites." "Ironically, the estimate leaks just as Iran is breaking seals on its equipment in a nuclear facility in Isfahan, in defiance of its prior agreement with the European Union," stated Tanter.

The intelligence estimate relies on wishful thinking to explain away suspicious Iranian nuclear actions. Since overestimating the likelihood that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence community uses "creative analysis and alternative theories that could explain some of the suspicious activities discovered in Iran in the past three years. Iran has said its nuclear infrastructure was built for energy production, not weapons," according to the Washington Post.

Tanter said that, "The regime must be pleased to learn that American intelligence analysts are using creative methods to come up with conclusions that are in agreement with the regime's disinformation program."

"If American analysts are using 'creative analysis' to make up for lack of current, actionable intelligence from assets on the ground, it would argue for using information from Iranian dissidents to provide 'lead intelligence,' information that can be used to verify intelligence obtained from other sources and methods," according to Tanter.

"The bottom line is that if the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran were as reported, it should be viewed with great caution and legitimate skepticism," Tanter said.

---

Raymond Tanter is co-chair of the Iran Policy Committee (IPC), Adjunct Professor of Government at Georgetown University, former member of the National Security Council staff, and former personal representative of the Secretary of Defense to arms control talks in Europe during the Reagan-Bush administration.

The Iran Policy Committee is comprised of former officials from the White House, State Department, Pentagon, intelligence agencies, the Congress, as well as experts from think tanks and universities.

[Nothing Without Hope]

1. This is the predictable Bush Administration response to the NIE: LIES

Note the venue of this "spokesman":

"The Iran Policy Committee is comprised of former officials from the White House, State Department, Pentagon, intelligence agencies, the Congress, as well as experts from think tanks and universities."

In other words, this group is a front for the Bush Administration, a way to get "independent expert" statements to support its fear- and war-mongering lies. The NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) is the best intelligence available, but they want regime change in Iran and so they have generated this worthless piece of blatant propaganda.

The Bush administration can't just have its usual pit bulls mouth their lies - this way they can pretend that this spew is from a knowledgeable academic source. In fact, it is a front of the administration.

Just as with Iraq, this is singing a familiar tune:

The intelligence estimate apparently overlooks evidence provided by Iranian dissident groups. ...

(snip)

"If American analysts are using 'creative analysis' to make up for lack of current, actionable intelligence from assets on the ground, it would argue for using information from Iranian dissidents to provide 'lead intelligence,' information that can be used to verify intelligence obtained from other sources and methods," according to Tanter.

(snip)

I wonder if their useful buddy Chalabi is as agile with fake IRANIAN WMD "evidence" as he was with IRAQI WMD "evidence"? Too bad their favorite mouthpiece Judith Miller is in jail at the moment, but they have plenty of other willing sell-outs ready to broadcast their lies. Clearly, the Bushies plan to try the same old lying games with stovepiped "intelligence" from pet "dissidents." It's a sure way to get the "evidence" that they want - the goal is not protection of the US, it is regime change in Iran at any price. After all, THEY wouldn't be the ones in the front lines or under the incoming bombs.

This "report" from this bogus front group is very sinister and should be taken very seriously as a clear statement of intention by the Bush Administration. It must be firmly rebutted when it is cited - as it will be repeatedly - by the Administration as an excuse to warmonger all over again.

We cannot let them lie our country into another unjustified war!!!

Recommended. Very, very important.

[Nothing Without Hope]

2. WaPo: NIE says IRAN IS AT LEAST 10 YEARS FROM A NUCLEAR BOMB

This is unwelcome news to the Bushies, who want regime change in Iran no matter what. The current thread is their response to the best intelligence available - they are trying to undermine it with their usual lies.

Here's the thread on the Washington Post article on the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1980753
Thread title: WaPo: National Intelligence Estimate says IRAN AT LEAST 10 YEARS FROM BOMB

[understandinglife]

3. This is why what Ray McGovern and others are doing is so important:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4251697&mesg_id=4251697

We know that all we will ever get from Bush and the neoconsters are more lies.

WATCH IT; SPREAD IT http://www.bushflash.com/right.html

Peace.

www.missionnotaccomplished.us - How ever long it takes, the day must come when tens of millions of caring individuals peacefully but persistently defy the dictator, deny the corporatists their cash flow, and halt the evil being done in Iraq and in all the other places the Bu$h neoconster regime is destroying civilization and the environment in the name of "America."

[Nothing Without Hope]

4. Here is some info on Ray Tanter, the IPC spokesman cited. Sounds like he

and the Bushies have a lot in common:

http://www.alternativeradio.org/speakers/TANR.shtml
Raymond Tanter is professor of international security and ballistic missile defense at the University of Michigan. He served under Ronald Reagan in the National Security Council. His latest books are "Rogue Regimes, Terrorism and Proliferation," and "Rational Rogues: Saddam, Osama, and Suicide Bombers."

Summary of a 4-6-05 presentation by Tanter:

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=45532
WASHINGTON, April 7 /U.S. Newswire/ -- On April 6, a think tank called Iran Policy Committee (IPC) convened on Capitol Hill at the invitation of the Iran Human Rights and Democracy Caucus of the U.S. House of Representatives.

(snip)

Tanter spoke about a race between two clocks. While Iran's nuclear clock is ticking very fast, the clock for a regime change is much too slow, he said. And if Iran were to acquire the bomb before the people are able to change the regime, it might obtain a new lease on life, act to extend the Iranian Revolution throughout the region, and threaten U.S. interests in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.

(snip)

Here is an excerpt from the executive summary of his 2003 book, Classifying Evil: Bush Administration Rhetoric and Policy toward Rogue Regimes. No wonder the Bushies like him!

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC04.php?CID=52
(snip)

Anticipating the Bush administration's concern about the conjunction of terrorism and proliferation, Congress expanded the definition of terrorism in 1994 to include efforts by any individual, group, or nonnuclear weapons state to acquire certain nuclear materials or to develop or otherwise acquire a nuclear explosive device.1 Indeed, treating terrorism and proliferation as related threats makes excellent sense for U.S. policymakers. Consider Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and North Korea. All possess ballistic missiles and pursue WMD; they also have a history of sponsoring international terrorism and colluding with one another. Given these and other factors, it is reasonable to argue that such regimes constitute a collective threat.

The main advantage of emphasizing the commonality of threats posed by rogue states is the consequent mobilization of public opinion behind tough methods such as coercive diplomacy or brute force. Some argue that grouping dissimilar states together by using "rogue regime" terminology interferes with engagement when the latter is warranted for a particular state. Although such arguments appear at the margin, the Bush administration has demonstrated remarkable consensus regarding the rogue state problem. Because the Bush approach toward outlaw states builds on previous presidential doctrines, it has benefited from continuity of purpose and wider public understanding of the relevant concepts. Reinforced by ideologically charged language, the Bush Doctrine's ambitious goals call for rolling back, rather than simply deterring, nations that engage in proliferation and state-sponsored terrorism, eventually replacing them with peaceful democracies.

Because of the significant benefits and minimal costs of employing terms such as "rogue state," the Bush administration should continue its use of this rhetoric. Moreover, given the collusion between rogue states in the proliferation of missiles and WMD, the United States should work to strengthen international arms control measures such as the Missile Technology Control Regime. Finally, in light of the links among international terrorist groups and their relationship to rogue states, the Bush administration should intensify its strategic approach to the war against terrorism, continuing to avoid a narrow focus on al-Qaeda alone.

(snip)

[merh]

5. Nominated & kicked

:kick:

[Nothing Without Hope]

6. To try for more attention for this topic, I've posted a cross-post in GD:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4252778
Thread title Three extremely important threads on Iran nukes & the Bush agenda

[Nothing Without Hope]

7. Not long ago Jerome Corsi was telling everyone he could find on TV and

radio that Iran would be bombing the US very soon. he positively drooled over the terrible details he could give on what a dirty bomb in New York City would do. Here's a thread on his crusade:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1768708
Thread title: Is anyone watching Jerome Corsi saying Iran planning to nuclear-bomb

[Nothing Without Hope]

8. Important thread from May: “Robert McNamara - Apocalypse Soon”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x123802

McNamara warns of the danger of the Bush administration turning to NUCLEAR BOMBS far too easily. It’s an important article that all of us should read.

And this editorial cartoon complements the article:
http://www.allhatnocattle.net.nyud.net:8090/englehart5505.gif

[Nothing Without Hope]

9. You all know that these are the arguments that the Bushies will use

to argue for invasion of Iraq - to save us and Israel from those Iranian nukes. They have ALREADY been saying it. This is why we MUST push the TRUTH, the REAL intelligence in the NIE report:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1980753
Thread title: WaPo: National Intelligence Estimate says IRAN AT LEAST 10 YEARS FROM BOMB

And we should be very thankful to the courageous Washington Post reporter for writing this article and the unknown CIA agent(s) for leaking the information.

The stakes just don't get much bigger: another war, and probably a nuclear one.

...and :kick:

[Nothing Without Hope]

10. Don't miss this related thread on Ray McGovern's article on this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4251697
Thread title: Ray McGovern on foiling Cheney: "Timing makes all the difference."

[IndianaGreen]

11. Let the US and Israel give up their nuclear stockpiles

before they start lecturing others about developing nuclear weapons.

Any country that fears an attack by Bush's imperial armies would be wise to get WMD ASAP in order to prevent their nation from being trampled by American jackboots.

[moodforaday]

12. kick (n/t)